Starfish_Oxide
Member
I lol'd.
Without taking the human causalities into consideration both sides have been been putting out some grade A propaganda.
I lol'd.
Without taking the human causalities into consideration both sides have been been putting out some grade A propaganda.
I think this is the first time I've seen Poroshenko compared to Hitler. Not sure if I should laugh or cry
That said, I wonder if The People of Ukraine regret giving up their nukes to the Russians back in the 90s? Would Russia commit these acts of cowardice with the looming threat of MAD in play?
You should be enraged that the Russians commit this INSULT as they continue to steal land that is not theirs.
We should send unmarked men to Königsberg and retake it Für Deutschland!
That said, I wonder if The People of Ukraine regret giving up their nukes to the Russians back in the 90s? Would Russia commit these acts of cowardice with the looming threat of MAD in play?
Land bridge is only secondary objective (Russia is after all already building kerch strait bridge that would connect mainland and Crimea)
While it might seem as if grabbing more territory from Ukraine would preoccupy Russia at the moment, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's remarks at a press conference today following his talks with South Ossetian Foreign Minister David Sanakoyev indicates that paranoia is ever present.
Lavrov said that Russia was prepared to react if NATO tried to "drag" Georgia into NATO (translation by The Interpreter):
http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-update-february-18-2015/#6909"We discussed our cooperation in the international arena, including the participation of delegations of Russia and South Ossetia in the Geneva discussions on stability and security in the Trans Caucasus. We affirmed the need to achieve an agreement for a legally-binding agreement on the non-use of force which would exclude a repeat of the events of 2008.
This task is especially relevant in light of the unceasing process of dragging Tbilisi into NATO. We were united in saying that this would not foster the efforts to secure stability in the Caucasus, and we will, naturally, if these steps will acquire practical outlines, and judging from everything, this has already begun, we will take measures in order not to permit negative influence on the situation from these processes."
Lavrov Says Russia Will 'Take Measures' if There Are Attempts to 'Drag' Georgia into NATO
http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-update-february-18-2015/#6909
Going to be fun years.
CHEEZMO;152612957 said:Isn't that commander the one who was filmed abusing prisoners?
That said, I wonder if The People of Ukraine regret giving up their nukes to the Russians back in the 90s? Would Russia commit these acts of cowardice with the looming threat of MAD in play?
I believe the problem was that Ukraine lacked the resources to maintain those stockpiles. As we've seen over the past 20 years, Ukraine is far from a stable, functioning country.
And no, probably not.
White House: The leaders of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia are to discuss the implementation of the Minsk deal in a phone call on Wednesday - @Reuters
White House: It is clear that Moscow and Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine have not lived up to the terms of the Minsk deal - @Reuters
US State Department: Obama administration has not yet made a decision on whether to supply 'defensive' equipment to Ukraine - @margbrennan
Wait what? Ukraine hasn't been involved in a single conflict before Russia got involved. How was it "far from a stable"?
Also maintaining Nukes is expensive, but Ukraine could just keep 1 or 2. That's enough to hold assholes like Russia back.
Keeping 1 or 2 nukes would be pointless. That's not a deterrence, it's an invitation to a first strike. The sad truth is that Ukraine would never have been able to afford both a conventional military and a nuclear arsenal worthy of deterrence when all her potential enemies - Russia and NATO - are so close and she lacked a guaranteed second strike capability through SLBMs. The decision to get rid of the nukes wasn't out of naivety as much as necessity.
It's also highly uncertain if either NATO or Russia would ever have been able to stomach a nuclear Ukraine. Having a non-aligned nuclear power in Europe would have upset the strategic balance in highly unpredictable ways and would have been viewed as very dangerous, even in the reasonably relaxed 90s. I'm not getting the impression that Minsk '91 involved pressure on Ukraine to comply because they relinquished the nukes willingly but I have no issue believing that there would have been pressure if they hadn't.
EDIT: Funny how all conferences regarding Ukraine seem to take place in Minsk. Wonder why that might be... *cough* Russia *cough*
Not sure why you are saying that 1 or 2 nukes wouldn't be enough. It helps Israel. From tactical perspective it won't help, but it is not like somebody would actually use Nukes. The point is that Russia would think twice about invading Ukraine. In fact they would not let Yanukovich just run if they knew they were messing with Nukes.
Israel has ~80-400 nukes according to estimations. I have to agree here even a handful of nukes wouldn't have done much, you still need a decently trained and equipped army. India and Pakistan managed to have a whole war while having nukes and not using them.Not sure why you are saying that 1 or 2 nukes wouldn't be enough. It helps Israel. From tactical perspective it won't help, but it is not like somebody would actually use Nukes. The point is that Russia would think twice about invading Ukraine. In fact they would not let Yanukovich just run if they knew they were messing with Nukes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolphin-class_submarine
Because Israel has secondary strike capability.
Israel has ~80-400 nukes according to estimations. I have to agree here even a handful of nukes wouldn't have done much, you still need a decently trained and equipped army. India and Pakistan managed to have a whole war while having nukes and not using them.
That would probably have just lead to some quick de-nuking operations before the dust had settled.I'm not making a "tactical use" argument here. Sure, few nukes tactically are useless, BUT how do you think Russia would be able to sell Yanukovich story if Ukraine had nukes? Just imagine how freaked out Russians would be knowing that "fascist" Ukrainian "coup" got their hands on Nuclear weapons! This is all about perceptions. They make big difference... There's very little "real" going on in Ukraine.
That would probably have just lead to some quick de-nuking operations before the dust had settled.
Not sure why you are saying that 1 or 2 nukes wouldn't be enough. It helps Israel. From tactical perspective it won't help, but it is not like somebody would actually use Nukes. The point is that Russia would think twice about invading Ukraine. In fact they would not let Yanukovich just run if they knew they were messing with Nukes.
I'm not making a "tactical use" argument here. Sure, few nukes tactically are useless, BUT how do you think Russia would be able to sell Yanukovich story if Ukraine had nukes? Just imagine how freaked out Russians would be knowing that "fascist" Ukrainian "coup" got their hands on Nuclear weapons! This is all about perceptions. They make big difference... There's very little "real" going on in Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolphin-class_submarine
Because Israel has secondary strike capability.
Eh, I just see "true patriotic Ukrainian soldiers save world before fascists nuke it" headline.Sure, which would make Russian involvement more obvious and very much more dangerous. EU/US would also be paying more attention to what is happening. The things within Ukraine would probably be as complicated as ever, but perceptions would be very different.
If you just have 1 or 2 nukes all the enemy needs is 3 or 4 nukes to take them out. Hence the invitation to a first strike. In order to have a guaranteed deterrence when you don't have SLBM's you need hundreds of nukes, minimum, to make sure that the enemy can't be certain that they got all of them.
As for Israel, like Kabouter said Israel actually does have SLBMs but to perfectly honest they don't need them because they're using their nukes to deter a conventional attack from their non-nuclear neighbors, not a nuclear attack. Their semi-official nuclear weapons are meant as a permanent reminder that if the Arab states ever make good on invading and wiping Israel off the map Israel will take them down with them too.
And honestly, Russia doesn't even need strategic nukes to take out 1, 2 or even half a dozen Ukrainian nukes so early on that they don't matter. They have sufficiently large numbers of high-precision ballistic missiles and cruise missiles close enough that they could pound them into oblivion by conventional means long before Ukraine has the chance to respond. Or even easier, use tactical nukes to limit both literal and political fallout to levels that wouldn't instantly spark WW3.
Easy. Launch preventive strike. Putin gets hailed by Russians as the hero that saved them from nuclear annihilation, might even be able to convince large parts of the rest of the world that it was the right decision because nobody likes nukes. He gets sanctioned and condemned by the EU and US but nothing really changes compared to now. Except the UAF would be even weaker because they wasted a small fortune keeping those nukes maintained.
Eh, I just see "true patriotic Ukrainian soldiers save world before fascists nuke it" headline.
There's a reason Israel keeps a standing army in addition to its nuclear arsenal.
I don't know why everyone thinks that in this scenario Ukraine would actually use Nukes. Is Russia/NATO using them right now?
It's perceptions that count. Why does anyone care who have Nukes then? In your scenario it really doesn't matter if Iran or North Korea have Nukes. Russia already has them and you can't be much more insane than Putin.
It doesn't work that way. If Ukraine had nukes there would be more reason to invest in army. Protecting Nukes alone would be worth the cost. Ukrainian army was not destroyed in the past 20 years because it was poorly financed (although that was one of the reasons). The main reason was corruption because nobody actually believe that Ukrainian army would actually need all the stuff they had.
Yeah, sorry this just seems like wishful thinking at this point.That money would have come from somewhere and that would be Ukrainian civilians. I really don't see a situation where Ukraine could have strolled along through the last twenty years with Ukrainian citizens being perfectly fine with the military costing something on the scale of 10 % of GDP when they didn't have any enemies until a year ago.
That money would have come from somewhere and that would be Ukrainian civilians. I really don't see a situation where Ukraine could have strolled along through the last twenty years with Ukrainian citizens being perfectly fine with the military costing something on the scale of 10 % of GDP when they didn't have any enemies until a year ago.
Yeah, sorry this just seems like wishful thinking at this point.
One thing is clear the "nuke card" is very useful in the game of politics. If it wasn't, Russian propaganda would not be playing it constantly.
Back to news: At the national security meeting Ukraine agreed to invite UN and EU peacekeepers to Ukraine.
I'm sure that Russia will veto it at the UN, but it's a step towards peace...
Back to news: At the national security meeting Ukraine agreed to invite UN and EU peacekeepers to Ukraine.
I'm sure that Russia will veto it at the UN, but it's a step towards peace...
If some EU countries do it it would be a french-german core but russia wouldn't allow a peacekeeping mission.So if the seps or the ATO attack each other will the peacekeepers do anything to stop both of them? I wonder what EU countries will actually do a peacekeeping force ; I guess the baltics comes to mind.
Back to news: At the national security meeting Ukraine agreed to invite UN and EU peacekeepers to Ukraine.
I'm sure that Russia will veto it at the UN, but it's a step towards peace...
If some EU countries do it it would be a french-german core but Russia wouldn't allow a peacekeeping mission.
You should be enraged that the Russians commit this INSULT as they continue to steal land that is not theirs.
We should send unmarked men to Königsberg and retake it Für Deutschland!
That said, I wonder if The People of Ukraine regret giving up their nukes to the Russians back in the 90s? Would Russia commit these acts of cowardice with the looming threat of MAD in play?
How did Russia end up keeping Konigsberg anyways? I mean, geographically, it really doesnt make much sense.
How did Russia end up keeping Konigsberg anyways? I mean, geographically, it really doesnt make much sense.
https://twitter.com/alextomo/status/568374091197108224alextomo: #Ukraine fighting now around Mariupol Donetsk and Debaltseve - most violent day yet since "ceasefire"
http://www.snappytv.com/tc/483744/92519SkyNews: Footage has emerged of Russian bomber filming being intercepted by RAF Typhoons thought to be close to UK airspace
Fighting seems to continue near/in/around Donetsk, Debaltseve and Mariupol today. I was hoping the fighting would quiet down now that the Russian forces have captured Debaltseve but seems like quite the contrary is happening:
https://twitter.com/alextomo/status/568374091197108224
That's usual stuff. Russians fly around around Europe all the time and are escorted by fighters from UK, Sweden, Holland, etc, depending on their location. It's mostly annoying for civilian air, since they don't have their location thingy on, so it can cause crashes if they fly too close.
The Irish Aviation Authority has confirmed that two Russian military aircraft flew within Irish-controlled airspace yesterday.
In a statement the IAA said the aircraft operated within 25 nautical miles of the Irish coast.
But it said the aircraft did not enter Irish sovereign airspace at any time.
It said the flight posed no safety threat to civil aviation on this occasion.
The IAA confirmed it monitored the activity of two Russian military aircraft off the west-south/ east coast of Ireland for about four hours yesterday from about 3-7pm.
The authority said it was not informed in advance.
It comes as the British Ministry of Defence said that RAF jets were scrambled yesterday after two Russian military aircraft were seen off the Cornwall coast.
The Russian Bear bombers were escorted from the UK area of interest, but did not enter its sovereign airspace.
The IAA said the aircraft operated in North Atlantic airspace and in airspace under the control of the IAA.
Irish controlled airspace extends 256 nautical miles off the west coast of Ireland. Irish sovereign airspace extends 12 nautical miles off the Irish coast.
Last month, the Irish Aviation Authority confirmed that two Russian military aircraft, shadowed by a number of British fighter jets, flew through Irish controlled airspace off the west coast.
Debaltseve under rebel control, Cossack fighters celebrate
It seems that Russian Cossak fighters were leading attack on Debaltsevo. Which is weird considering that Russian Cossaks are in control of Luhansk, not Donetsk. I wonder is Zacharchenko is happy about this...
Irish controlled airspace breached by Russia for the second time in as many weeks:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0219/681373-russian-aircraft-raf-escort/