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Ukrainian Conflict - Donetsk Boogaloo

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Saw this on reddit:

Minister of Culture of Russia called russian citizens to spend their summer vacation in Crimea. According to the minister, Crimea is now the safest region in Ukraine, tour operators are willing to provide huge discounts. - Source
You have got to be kidding me
 
Yeah, that's true. Finland and Sweden wouldn't be affected that much if Russia decided to close the gas pipes because the overall usage of gas is so small.

Well not because of gas but Russia is third biggest trading partner for us finns so if Russian economy implodes under the possible sanctions it's going to be hard times for us too.
 
According to Italy's minister for foreign affairs Russia's and NATO's representatives will have a meeting on Wednesday.
 
Bh35BqLCIAASat5.jpg


Image that shows how much the consumption is by percentage for Russian natural gas imports into EU. Crazy how much Finland, Sweden, and others rely solely on Russia, while many rely on them for almost 30-50% etc. I imagine oil numbers are also similar. Any knee-jerk change to this will devastate the countries relying on Russian Oil/Gas.
It's pretty bad for Germany, since gas turbines are one cornerstone of the renewable energy plan. You can turn them off and on at will (unlike coal or nuclear plants) to smooth out valleys of energy production caused by renewable energy.

We will be highly dependent on natural gas in the future, that's also why there are a couple of plans for synthetic natural gas production from renewable energy.
 
We spoke about the far-left's bizarre response to events such as these a few days ago courtesy of the mental StopTheWar list, but here's an incredible piece by Nick Cohen (a lefty himself) about it which I think sums it up perfectly:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/nick-cohen/2014/03/chomsky-in-the-crimea/

Sorry but that article is utter garbage. It's the strawman of strawman. A statue should be erected to it, for future generations to gaze up and learn "this is how you write crap".

I would also hardly call Nick Cohen a lefty. The guy has made his *career* writing books slamming the left for exactly the same sins he outlines in the above article. It's been his entire gimmick for the last decade.

I think it's incredibly disingenuous to pretend that a few complete nutbags are the entirety of the left wing political movement, or even anything approaching a majority. The only people defending Putin I know of, or read about, are either the ultra insane (on either political wing), or those so determined to bash Obama they will use any stick that comes to hand.
 
It's pretty bad for Germany, since gas turbines are one cornerstone of the renewable energy plan. You can turn them off and on at will (unlike coal or nuclear plants) to smooth out valleys of energy production caused by renewable energy.

We will be highly dependent on natural gas in the future, that's also why there are a couple of plans for synthetic natural gas production from renewable energy.
Gas and renewable energy should never go in the same phrase.

If the clowns at Brussels are not going to help Ukrainie, I hope they start pondering why we cannot remain dependent of fossil fuels at least. We need alternatives and we need them ASAP.

Spain may not get gas from Russia (we do get a ton from North Africa, which is a different mess) yet we could basically be energy independent using wind and solar energy alone. It's ridiculous.
 
Bh35BqLCIAASat5.jpg


Image that shows how much the consumption is by percentage for Russian natural gas imports into EU. Crazy how much Finland, Sweden, and others rely solely on Russia, while many rely on them for almost 30-50% etc. I imagine oil numbers are also similar. Any knee-jerk change to this will devastate the countries relying on Russian Oil/Gas.

Natural gas apparently provides about 10% of the total power consumption in Finland. And this posturing by Russia will probably make it easier to get new nuclear plants approved.
 
So this is how they try and convince everyone everything is alright? By potentially getting them murdered.

Despite all the rhetoric around Crimea, the state of Russia never cared for well-being of Russians inside or outside the border. Look no further than Chechnya, Turkmenistan and Russian region of Yakutiya (Yakut nationalism is on the rise there).
 
Sorry but that article is utter garbage. It's the strawman of strawman. A statue should be erected to it, for future generations to gaze up and learn "this is how you write crap".

I would also hardly call Nick Cohen a lefty. The guy has made his *career* writing books slamming the left for exactly the same sins he outlines in the above article. It's been his entire gimmick for the last decade.

I think it's incredibly disingenuous to pretend that a few complete nutbags are the entirety of the left wing political movement, or even anything approaching a majority. The only people defending Putin I know of, or read about, are either the ultra insane (on either political wing), or those so determined to bash Obama they will use any stick that comes to hand.

And that's exactly who he's talking about. He's not talking about various European governments or left wing political parties. He's talking about - obviously - your Naom Chomskys and the rest of the far left who, in their need to damn everything western and capitalist, throw the human-rights baby out with the free-market bathwater. He's not talking about Miliband and Hollande.
 
We spoke about the far-left's bizarre response to events such as these a few days ago courtesy of the mental StopTheWar list, but here's an incredible piece by Nick Cohen (a lefty himself) about it which I think sums it up perfectly:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/nick-cohen/2014/03/chomsky-in-the-crimea/

Oh come on, I'm a left guy and I condemn Russia for what is doing, but what else can I do unless be vocal about it? I can't vote in Russia, I only can vote in Portugal and to European Parliament, so when my country got involved on Iraq I was against it, but i didn't the same with Afghanistan. I'm a left guy who doesn't have a problem to support the use of military force, when the cause is just and diplomatic means are fruitless.
 
Maybe. But this is what you wrote:

Natural gas is not a renewable resource, thus the problem with Russia fucking around.
Maybe read the rest of it? Gas turbines smoothen out the bumps of renewable energy production, which we have a lot of. In order to use more renewable energy, gas turbines help. I don't want to derail this thread further, though.
 
On the other hand I don't think Sweden (and possibly Finland) use a large amount of gas compared to other resources. I would imagine Germany is a lot more reliant on Russia's gas.

I don't think that picture tells the entire story. It seems to indicate how much of the imported gas comes from Russia, which in the case of Sweden at least is indeed huge. But Sweden barely uses any gas, most energy comes from hydroelectric and nuclear.

It's pretty bad for Germany, since gas turbines are one cornerstone of the renewable energy plan. You can turn them off and on at will (unlike coal or nuclear plants) to smooth out valleys of energy production caused by renewable energy.

We will be highly dependent on natural gas in the future, that's also why there are a couple of plans for synthetic natural gas production from renewable energy.

You are correct, while Russia is the only supplier of natural gas for a lot of those countries, they don't use it as much as Oil. Germany on the other hand uses natural gas much more. Though apparently countries like Finland and Czech Republic and Bulgaria and others import close to 70% or more of their oil from Russia as well. It's crazy how dependent EU really is, and how different it is for all of them.
 
Where shouldn't they be? Nobody could stop them from joining the protests of course, and they were already elected into parliament so they were already represented there.

Because they're neo-nazis. I'm all for democracy, but when people leveraging it do so with the intent of taking away the rights of others I'm less inclined to consider them deserving of a voice in the political arena, regardless of how popular their grass roots support might be as a result of economic issues.
 
At the gym working out; onto core exercises one of the routine is Russian twists , was wondering whether to boycott them it not?

i did them anyway

Thank you I'll be here all week.
 
Maybe read the rest of it? Gas turbines smoothen out the bumps of renewable energy production, which we have a lot of. In order to use more renewable energy, gas turbines help. I don't want to derail this thread further, though.

Ex... actly? You cannot be dependent on natural gas to make renewables work. Period. Which is why I firmly oppose using it as a way to ensure the viability of a renewable-based system. It's like using glass nails to hold a bridge together.
 
crude_oil_export.png


Trying to see how this converts to how many barrels per day these countries usually go through. Did it for Finland and Germany, found that if you follow that graph, Germany consumes at least 35% of Russian oil per day, whereas for Finland, it's in between 65-80% daily. Netherlands usually consumes about 1 million barrels per day, and gets around 550,000 barrels from Russia, so it's almost half. It's really crazy how dependent on Russian energy, western Europe ultimately became. For Poland, it's very high, almost 90% of its oil is from Russia.
 
Josh Marshall at TPM has an interesting observation that a lot of people overlooked:
The UN Security Council is currently meeting and Russian Ambassador Churkin read what he claimed was a letter from deposed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych okaying and arguably authorizing the Russian occupation of Crimea. (More information here.) To the best of my knowledge, we have not seen Yanukovych saying that publicly. The last we saw him on TV he denounced his ouster, said it was illegitimate (and of course fled into Russia) but, I believe, said clearly that Russian military involvement would not be acceptable.

I would strongly assume that if the Russians could get him on camera to say that they would.

Here's what Yanukovych said (via WP):
“Russia needs to use all the leverage it has to prevent the chaos and terror in Ukraine,” he added. “It’s hard for me to give any kind of tips. I do not accept any attempt at intervention that would violate the integrity of Ukrainian sovereignty.”

Who knows what his interpretation of leverage is, but the "attempt at intervention" wording is unambiguous. Where is Yanukovych anyway? Is waving a letter around the best pretext the Russians can get?
 
Does Putin have the right to be president forever or will he have to make up some laws again when his 4th term ends?

Hypothetically speaking of course since it's always possible he won't remain in power that long.

His current term ends in 2016, but he can run again.
 
Because they're neo-nazis. I'm all for democracy, but when people leveraging it do so with the intent of taking away the rights of others I'm less inclined to consider them deserving of a voice in the political arena, regardless of how popular their grass roots support might be as a result of economic issues.
I don't like far-right parties either, but I do believe in pragmatism in these types of situations. The government is only temporary, it's main purpose is to quickly stabilize the economy and get the country back on track. In order to calm down the far-right protesters, who also fought hard to get rid of Yanukovich, their already elected party was given representation in the new temporary government. It's not ideal, but it's also not like they will be able to turn the country into some fascist state in the few months before the new election, and the president has already showed that he is willing to veto questionable bills such as the repeal of the regional languages law.
 
Mr Obama stop posturing and making threats. For once let's let regions handle their own problem. Or if we have to get involved someplace pick one of the dozen African nations who are in severe need if help from horrible dictators warlords or general famine. Let the EU handle Russia. If they can't then what's the point of the EU?


Or better yet let's not get involved at all in case we need to invade another sovereign country.
 
What would it take for his own party/regime to oust him?

That will never happen. Medwedew and Putin are a team.

. Or if we have to get involved someplace pick one of the dozen African nations who are in severe need if help from horrible dictators warlords or general famine. .

The U.S. has supported the worst dictators in Africa, Mobutu Sese Seko is the most famous example.
 
Ex... actly? You cannot be dependent on natural gas to make renewables work. Period. Which is why I firmly oppose using it as a way to ensure the viability of a renewable-based system. It's like using glass nails to hold a bridge together.

But then renewable energy isn't viable at all.. not with current technology anyway. Power2gas etc. is still far away and will be very costly, so who knows if that is ever going to be implemented. The simple reality is that if you want renewable energy you're still dependent on fossil fuels. The point is to reduce the dependence, eliminating it is a dream for the future.

Either way renewables are mainly for electricty production while gas in Germany is mainly used for heating.
 
When he drops dead. Everyone seems to be afraid of him.

He's a smart politician. He's shown his usefulness to the Oligarchs by settling disputes, giving them contracts and investments. He's centralized political power in the Kremlin again, has started to once again have a state sponsored and state controlled economy, removed a lot of pro-democracy institutions etc.

It will be very tough to remove him and his influence from Russia for a while. Not unless the Russian people have their own revolution.
 
Mr Obama stop posturing and making threats. For once let's let regions handle their own problem. Or if we have to get involved someplace pick one of the dozen African nations who are in severe need if help from horrible dictators warlords or general famine. Let the EU handle Russia. If they can't then what's the point of the EU?


Or better yet let's not get involved at all in case we need to invade another sovereign country.

This isn't a problem that is going to be solved quickly, or by military.

The most likely scenario is targeted sanctions of Russian individuals and humiliation of Russia internationally, combined with (if the EU has the balls to do it), shutting Russia out of EU/US financial markets Iran-style.

Those sanctions worked well on Iran.
 
We spoke about the far-left's bizarre response to events such as these a few days ago courtesy of the mental StopTheWar list, but here's an incredible piece by Nick Cohen (a lefty himself) about it which I think sums it up perfectly:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/nick-cohen/2014/03/chomsky-in-the-crimea/

What's incredible about it beyond putting the boot into Chomsky and an attempt to reduce the debate into 'you're either with us or against us', and the use of the word 'principle' when in fact he seems to be expressing a belief in adherence to an ideology ? The whole thing reeks of demonization somewhat akin to the accusations of being 'unamerican' simply for having the temerity to question the decision making of the president. That sort of black and white thinking might sit well in an article, but it serves little purpose in the real world where it's more important to evaluate matters on the ground in a rational manner.
 
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She's a journalist, won a Pulitzer prize for her book about Gulag, privately wife of Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs .

As crazy as it may seem these type of thing do tend to happen. In Poland before elections in 1989 (first semi-free elections) 5 top tier politicians (and I do mean top tier, these included ministers and press secretary) of the Communist Party made a bet on the outcome of the elections. 4 of them actually marked down a victory over Solidarity, while one (press secretary I think) actually leaned more towards loss. Needless to say, they were demolished (won 1% of votes).

So yeah, politicians at this level do tend to fall so far as to believe their obvious lies.
 
On the other hand I don't think Sweden (and possibly Finland) use a large amount of gas compared to other resources. I would imagine Germany is a lot more reliant on Russia's gas.

Gas is nearly non-existent in Sweden's energy mix. Our 147 TWh consumption is provided by through 66 TWh nuclear, 65 TWh hydro, 12,3 TWh biofuels and 3,5 TWh wind.

Natural gas only contributes 1 Twh. Coal, oil and peat add another 4,7 TWh. We're essentially completely self-sustainable (if push comes to shove, we have the worlds second largest unexploited uranium reserve) and close to fossil fuel free at this point.

Some natural gas is used for heating but whatever we don't produce ourselves as biogas we import from Denmark. Russian gas has no impact on Sweden at all. We do import a third of our oil from Russia, but that can probably change if need be.
 
Yeah he's pretty much on point in terms of looking at things from a more sober analytical perspective. Unfortunately despite his qualifications there's already people in the press like this piece aggressively rubbishing him as an apologist for Putin: -

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/03/03/the-realists-misjudged-ukraine.html

simply because Cohen isn't condemning him, without necessarily understanding (or more likely being prepared to understand) that the role of an analyst is to perceive the motivators/mindset and likely behaviour of a foreign entity based on their understanding of them not beat the drum about how 'terrible' they are, just because that's what people want to hear. It's a clear case of shoot the messenger, which is frankly asinine in this case.

In this particular situation Russia do hold all the cards. US sanctions against Russia mean pretty much nothing because trade between both is negligible, and despite all the sabre rattling most of Europe isn't likely to go along with them either because most if not all are still in or recovering from recession and Russia even temporarily turning off the oil or gas to drive prices through the roof would have a devastating impact on growth and recovery.

Ukraine under Yanukovych was a mess for sure, but wantonly throwing support behind a coup whose membership is highly questionable in terms of political beliefs in such a small amount of time was a huge mistake.
The author, james Kirchick, is a memeber of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a "nonpartisan" neoconservative thinktank in DC.

You hit the nail on the head with Cohen's treatment in that buzzfeed article.
 
Gas is nearly non-existent in Sweden's energy mix. Our 147 TWh consumption is provided by through 66 TWh nuclear, 65 TWh hydro, 12,3 TWh biofuels and 3,5 TWh wind.

Natural gas only contributes 1 Twh. Coal, oil and peat add another 4,7 TWh. We're essentially completely self-sustainable (if push comes to shove, we have the worlds second largest unexploited uranium reserve) and close to fossil fuel free at this point.

Some natural gas is used for heating but whatever we don't produce ourselves as biogas we import from Denmark. Russian gas has no impact on Sweden at all. We do import a third of our oil from Russia, but that can probably change if need be.

From the IEA:

In 2011, Sweden imported nearly 18.8 Mt of crude oil, or an average of roughly 380 kb/d,
primarily from Russia (50%), Norway (20%), and Denmark (15%). Additionally, Sweden imported some 0.5 Mt of feedstocks in 2011. Russia’s share in Sweden’s total crude imports has risen significantly over the past decade, having represented less than 10% of total crude imports in 2000.

That's quite a lot of oil though that Sweden won't be able to make up anytime soon. The good thing though, is that oil and gas, only make up 30% or so of Sweden's energy needs. Meaning that most of the country can survive without oil/gas, but god help those who depend on oil there.
 
What's incredible about it beyond putting the boot into Chomsky and an attempt to reduce the debate into 'you're either with us or against us', and the use of the word 'principle' when in fact he seems to be expressing a belief in adherence to an ideology ? The whole thing reeks of demonization somewhat akin to the accusations of being 'unamerican' simply for having the temerity to question the decision making of the president. That sort of black and white thinking might sit well in an article, but it serves little purpose in the real world where it's more important to evaluate matters on the ground in a rational manner.

Did you actually read the article? That's not what he's talking about at all.
 
But then renewable energy isn't viable at all.. not with current technology anyway.
There's always nuclear. Which I greatly dislike, but it's preferable to being at Russia's mercy.

I'd rather bet huge on renewables and keep a few nuclear plants running to even supply and demand than using gas. Particularly if said gas comes from Russia. Not that I dislike the country per se, but the Russian government is known for using Gazprom to blackmail governments into submission, and that's something we cannot have.
 
I don't like far-right parties either, but I do believe in pragmatism in these types of situations. The government is only temporary, it's main purpose is to quickly stabilize the economy and get the country back on track. In order to calm down the far-right protesters, who also fought hard to get rid of Yanukovich, their already elected party was given representation in the new temporary government. It's not ideal, but it's also not like they will be able to turn the country into some fascist state in the few months before the new election, and the president has already showed that he is willing to veto questionable bills such as the repeal of the regional languages law.

They don't need a few months, they just need gains. By giving them a foothold they're going to be able to increase their influence with the disenfranchised and that is not a good thing. They already had a disturbingly high number of parliamentary seats as was.

http://www.ibtimes.com/euromaidan-dark-shadows-far-right-ukraine-protests-1556654

Did you actually read the article? That's not what he's talking about at all.

Yes I did. Its fucking drivel. I've already articulated why. I don't see the need to repeat myself, and beyond incredulity you're not presenting much in the way of a counterpoint.
 
From the IEA:

In 2011, Sweden imported nearly 18.8 Mt of crude oil, or an average of roughly 380 kb/d,
primarily from Russia (50%), Norway (20%), and Denmark (15%). Additionally, Sweden imported some 0.5 Mt of feedstocks in 2011. Russia’s share in Sweden’s total crude imports has risen significantly over the past decade, having represented less than 10% of total crude imports in 2000.

That's quite a lot of oil though that Sweden won't be able to make up anytime soon. The good thing though, is that oil and gas, only make up 30% or so of Sweden's energy needs. Meaning that most of the country can survive without oil/gas, but god help those who depend on oil there.

We don't have any pipelines to Russia. We import a lot of Russian oil because it's cheap, but there are no real structural reasons we could not buy it from other countries. Sure it would be more expensive, but that could easily be compensated for end-users by lowering taxes - at this point our gasoline tax is above 100 % of the original price of the gas itself. In 2013 gasoline prices were 14,53 SEK/liter of which 8,25 SEK were taxes.

As a reference that's a price equivalent of $8,5 per gallon. Or over twice the average US price in 2013. All from taxes.
 
His current term ends in 2016, but he can run again.

2018 actually.

The problem with the article of the constitution that states presidential terms is poor wording. Thus Putin's third term is not 100% legal. If we had independent Constitutional Court, it would have cleared the issue.
 
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