If we didn’t have a reference to compare then maybe. But in Spider-Man and now Wolverine we will be able to compare the multiplat vs the single console since Spider-Man was only on PS4 and Wolverine will be exclusive to PS5. Activision Spider-Man was multiplat and so was Wolverine origins. I think gamers are a little more savvy nowadays when it comes to tie-ins and know which is a cash grab and which isn’t. Didn’t the avengers game bomb for this reason?
edit: also, yes, the GoD of war move was ballsy of Sony. They should get a lot of credit for delivering on that.
Wolverine had a 5 second tease and is nowhere near ready so I don't think we can bring that into the debate honestly until we see more.
Regarding the dates that's exactly the point I'm making. People have been starved of a game for a very popular licensed IP. So it will always sell well. I imagine exactly the same would happen if someone released a new Matrix game as well. With regards to volume the gaming market has grown since then so you'd need to do some clever extrapolation from data none of us will have.
re: Avengers. Outriders can be considered the same and that isn't licensed. The only real benefit is that it was free for lots of people on gamepass. People are swerving off GaaS in general these days or are more wary. You would need an apple to apples comparison there (big budget, popular license, single player).
I just think Spider-Man is an outlier and does not speak to the quality of the game as much as you think. Reason being that both Ghost of Tsushima and Zero Dawn were a much higher standard by those respective studio's. Arkham Knight looks better than Spider-Man for instance.
That's not having a go at any issue in particular just that its probably better to focus on the titles that fall outside the gaming licenses/ips in my opinion. If your position has merit then surely Miles Morales would have outsold Spider--Man if it has nothing to do with the license? It was cheaper, made by the same studio, had better tech and was one two platforms (and excluding the bundle of SM:R)
Forbidden West will make the point better I feel as it's much better and refined and there is no way it won't outsell Zero Dawn imo.