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Wii U US November Sales Estimated at 149K by Pachter

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shinra-bansho said:
Seems a high estimate given the relative performance in those other countries, iirc, the marketshare was a sliver in some compared to the UK, GE and FR.
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That's the problem with percentages without numbers. :P

I calculated this by the software sales.

We have 52.000 software units for 2012 (Spain), first two months.

Tie Ratio in UK was 2,7 in the same timeframe, let's say 2,5 for Spain, that would be 20.800 units. Let's assume it sold that much in 2013 (similar to UK/France/Germany),
that would put it to 40.000 to 50.000 LTD units. Italy could be the same. 30.000 for the Nordic countries going by the software sales there and you have 110.000 to 130.000 units without Austria/Switzerland/BeNeLux, etc.

Anyway, it's probably closer to the 150.000 than to the 200.000 units.
 
The Wii U isn't failing because "no games", the Wii U isn't failing because it's "weak". Those are commonly sighted reasons and it's not that those are entirely untrue, but that's not the whole story. Remember in the early days of the Wii it sold like hotcakes and its easy to forget that outside of a couple pieces of shovelware the only thing selling the Wii were Wii Sports and Zelda. For almost a full year it didn't really have anything much beyond that.

Here's the reason why the Wii U is failing. The Wii U is failing because it has NO VISION.

*hugs his Wii U* I'm sorry pal, but that's the truth of it.

When Nintendo was running with the GBA and Gamecube, they were moderately successful but needed to do something new to regain relevance beyond kids and the Nintendo faithful. When they designed the DS, it had a clear vision; they knew what they wanted to make on the hardware. Games like Nintendogs were moved from the Gamecube to the DS because they realized that a different type of game needed a different type of interface. They designed it with the idea of making games like Nintendogs and Brain Training, and they knew exactly who they were targeting when they designed it. The (what was called at the time) "non-gamer" audience. When the DS succeeded, they made the Wii with a completely different interface than the DS, but with the same vision in mind; bringing new people into the fold, finding that blue ocean. Lo and behold, they succeeded immensely. They knew what they were doing from the get-go and were rewarded.

But Nintendo didn't know how to follow up these two incredibly successful acts. More of the same, or something completely new? Unfortunately because they didn't know what to do, they stupidly tried to do both. The 3DS is the new DS! But wait it's also a new 3D screen thing that requires you to be perfectly still while you play to see the effect, so we also threw in MOTION CONTROLS! All for the low low price of $100 more than the original DS.

... wait, what?

So the 3DS got off to a rocky start, but Nintendo was willing to bite the bullet for it because they knew they needed Monster Hunter on their platform after the PSP's revival. They couldn't afford to hand the portable market to Sony, so they did what they needed to do and have actively removed the focus on the 3D feature entirely (2DS anyone?). So while it started off rocky, they got their shit together and reestablished the focus; it's the new DS and people understand that now.

So then... the Wii U reveal. It's the new Wii! Only it's not, because it doesn't come with Wii Remotes! It's got this tablet thing that looks suspiciously like the lower half of a 3DS with an extra circle pad! But it has a Wii Remote sensor built it!! .... to the controller. Oh and the games that made the Wii popular like Wii Sports? Remember how we launched it as just the Wii without the Nintendo branding front and center on the box so you know full well it's something completely new? Welcome to NINTENDO LAND, the game for people who loved Wii stuff and suddenly have been Nintendo fans since the Famicom days. It's for the core gamer! It's for the casual gamer! And it comes for the low low price of $100 more than the original Wii launched.

...

... wait, what?

Nintendo made the mistake of trying to have it both ways. They tried to ride on the coattails of their previous success stories AND have USPs on top of it. And it failed colossally. The 3DS Nintendo was willing to save, but the Wii U is way to expensive of a mess to fix. They had no vision, so the only owners are Nintendo faithful and maybe some kids here and there. It's even worse than the Gamecube because the Gamecube WAS marketed at kids and Nintendo faithful so it at least made sense to the public who the machine was for.

The Wii U is a machine for... someone. As Yahtzee from Zero Punctuation put it in his ZombiU review "The Wii U touchscreen is a solution looking for a problem,"
 
ViewtifulJC said:
150k would mean it was almost TRIPLED by the GC in a similar November post-launch period. That's sub-Dreamcast numbers.

xvyx.jpg
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HOLY SHIT!
If his prediction are correct that will mean that all hope is lost for that console, I mean what can they do if not even Mario is helping it?!
alr1ght said:
I guess Iwata did drop the bomb.
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LOL
 
There is absolutely no way it could be that low. It would be a fucking disaster of epic proportions if its anything close to that.
 
KAP151 said:
There is absolutely no way it could be that low. It would be a fucking disaster of epic proportions if its anything close to that.
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For the last 12 months all signs have been pointing to this system being a massive disaster. I don't know why this would be so hard to believe unless you've been living under a rock.
 
shinra-bansho said:
Seems a high estimate given the relative performance in those other countries, iirc, the marketshare was a sliver in some compared to the UK, GE and FR.
Click to expand...

Captain Smoker said:
That's the problem with percentages without numbers. :P

I calculated this by the software sales.

We have 52.000 software units for 2012 (Spain), first two months.

Tie Ratio in UK was 2,7 in the same timeframe, let's say 2,5 for Spain, that would be 20.800 units. Let's assume it sold that much in 2013 (similar to UK/France/Germany),
that would put it to 40.000 to 50.000 LTD units. Italy could be the same. 30.000 for the Nordic countries going by the software sales there and you have 110.000 to 130.000 units without Austria/Switzerland/BeNeLux, etc.

Anyway, it's probably closer to the 150.000 than to the 200.000 units.
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Would you agree with this?


The Americas: 1.75 million shipped (as of September 30th, 2013)

USA: 1.39-1.40 million (as of November 2nd, 2013)
Canada: ~140,000 (an educated guess on my part)
Latin America: 15,000 (a guess)

Total sold-through: 1.55 million (as of early November 2013)



Europe + Other: 1.01 million shipped (as of September 30th, 2013)

U.K.: ~152,000 (as of mid-November 2013)
Germany: ~180,000 (presumably, as of November 2013)
France: ~175,000 (as of mid-November 2013)
Poland: ~350 (as of August 2013)
Rest of Europe: ~175,000
Australia + New Zealand: ~70,000 (a guess on my part)
Other: 18,000

Total sold-through: 0.77 million (as of November 2013)



Japan: 1.15 million shipped (as of September 30th, 2013)

Japan: 1,200,339 as of December 1st, 2013

Total sold-through: 1.20 million (as of December 1st, 2013)


Total shipments: 3.91 million
Total sell-through: 3.52 million
 
Ninja Scooter said:
For the last 12 months all signs have been pointing to this system being a massive disaster. I don't know why this would be so hard to believe unless you've been living under a rock.
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I know its been a failure so far....but that number in the busiest time of the year, being the cheapest console with some decent bundles AND with a system seller like Mario finally out... well, pack it up now.
 
Not surprised if true. I would buy one at $199. $300 is just too much considering how much more you get from the Xbox One or PS4. I've bought every Nintendo console since the NES but cannot bring myself to get the Wii U, it is simply overpriced.

If the GamePad is preventing them from selling it at $199 then they need to stop bundling it and sell it separately.
 
KAP151 said:
There is absolutely no way it could be that low. It would be a fucking disaster of epic proportions if its anything close to that.
Click to expand...

No...if Vita outsold it in the US it ..that would be a fucking disaster of epic proportions.

This is just pretty disasterous.
 
KAP151 said:
I know its been a failure so far....but that number in the busiest time of the year, being the cheapest console with some decent bundles AND with a system seller like Mario finally out... well, pack it up now.
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Yeah exactly. I expect at least 450k. But I'm no expert...on anything.
 
KAP151 said:
I know its been a failure so far....but that number in the busiest time of the year, being the cheapest console with some decent bundles AND with a system seller like Mario finally out... well, pack it up now.
Click to expand...

PS3 and 360 are both cheaper, and the PS3 has some amazing bundles.
 
Schnozberry said:
Did Pachter have any information to back this up? Or is this just a headline grabbing number to draw attention to himself?
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Pachter performs a few channel checks (he goes to stores and gets a count of their sell-through in November), and he has the full NPD database at his disposal.

That's it.
 
Aquamarine said:
Would you agree with this?

The Americas: 1.75 million shipped (as of September 30th, 2013)

USA: 1.39-1.40 million (as of November 2nd, 2013)
Canada: 140,000 (an educated guess on my part)
Latin America: Inconsequential

Total sold-through: 1.54 million (as of early November 2013)


Europe + Other: 1.01 million shipped (as of September 30th, 2013)

U.K.: ~152,000 (as of mid-November 2013)
Germany: ~180,000 (presumably, as of November 2013)
France: ~175,000 (as of mid-November 2013)
Rest of Europe: ~160,000 (if it's closer to 150K...)
Australia + New Zealand: ~100,000 (a guess on my part)
Other: Inconsequential

Total sold-through: 0.77 million (as of November 2013)


Japan: 1.15 million shipped (as of September 30th, 2013)

Japan: 1,200,339 as of December 1st, 2013

Total sold-through: 1.20 million (as of December 1st, 2013)
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Yeah, something like this.

European/Other number could vary, but that's alright, we don't have better data.
 
Folks claiming the wiiu is dead or expecting huge numbers for the wiiu this holiday I think are missing whats actually happening. The wiiu is going to do good numbers relative to the horrible numbers its been doing the past year. Expecting it to beat or match its original launch numbers while the X1 and PS4 just launched makes no sense. It might but I dont think thats crucial or even worth expecting. 350k'ish seems reasonable.

What nintendo is doing and what the wiiu is setting itself up for is changing its long term trend.the big N is looking to gain some positive momentum and stabilization going into 2014. They want to combine that with multiple sales bumps due to multiple IP releases over the coming year.

Things aren't looking great for the wiiu but their looking better and thats the point. Nintendo has a strategy in motion which is working but they have work with the current reality. Right now it looks like the goal is to gradually along the lines of the 3ds (not at the same levels)

Nintendo is recovering and will continue do so.The numbers will indeed show it...I'll leave it at that.

Personally I'm more interested in seeing how the x1 is going to do after the new year. Next to the ps4 the 360 is its primary competition and that is a problem. Especially combined with its high price point and huge lack of exclusive titles in the coming year. Titanfall looks good but is not going to do more then a month or 2 sales bump IMO. That bump is going to be even less considering the game will be on the 360 as well.
 
x3sphere said:
Not surprised if true. I would buy one at $199. $300 is just too much considering how much more you get from the Xbox One or PS4. I've bought every Nintendo console since the NES but cannot bring myself to get the Wii U, it is simply overpriced.

If the GamePad is preventing them from selling it at $199 then they need to stop bundling it and sell it separately.
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The whole "Xbox One and PS4 providing so much more" argument I find funny. They are far costlier machines. At this point at launch they don't. They have a ton of future promise that will likely be delivered on some level, and that's what people are buying into. I do agree if you're comparing the Wii U to the 360/PS3. To me that has been the Wii U's problem for the past 12 months or so.

Also, I completely agree with the vision part. I personally think Sony never quite has a vision, except to be the place to play all games and please everyone. Thus they please third parties effectively and manage to make an ecosystem around them that likes them.
 
As Ms. Aquamarine has already pointed out earlier on in this surprisingly burgeoning thread that has no business being as massive as it is, Mr. Pachter has respectfully, more often than not, got it wrong than right as compared to the average Sales Age Gaffer when it comes to his monthly NPD predictions.

So I'd save the death rattles/champagne/gifs for Thursday/Friday. This feels a bit too preemptive, albeit a sampling of what is to come in a few days time on GAF.
 
What makes a console too late to turn around anyway? It's not like Nintendo doesn't have the cash reserves to weather the storm.

Not saying they will, but I'm sure people have called the 3DS impossible to save back too.
 
ambientmystic said:
As Ms. Aquamarine has already pointed out earlier on in this surprisingly burgeoning thread that has no business being as massive as it is, Mr. Pachter has respectfully, more often than not, got it wrong than right as compared to the average Gaffer when it comes to his monthly NPD predictions.

So I'd save the death rattles/champagne/gifs for Thursday/Friday. This feels a bit too preemptive, albeit a sampling of what is to come in a few days time on GAF.
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There really aren't any consequences for Pachter's predictions being off. He can blow it off pretty easily. There is a lot of upside to making headlines though, which is what I assume this is.
 
ambientmystic said:
As Ms. Aquamarine has already pointed out earlier on in this surprisingly burgeoning thread that has no business being as massive as it is, Mr. Pachter has respectfully, more often than not, got it wrong than right as compared to the average Sales Age Gaffer when it comes to his monthly NPD predictions.

So I'd save the death rattles/champagne/gifs for Thursday/Friday. This feels a bit too preemptive, albeit a sampling of what is to come in a few days time on GAF.
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His lifetime estimates for the Wii U have been very good. This current estimate could be as wrong as he's ever been, and the situation Nintendo finds itself in would be the same.
 
@Hey Aqua, do you have similar numbers for December sales like the ones you pointed to for November? Could you post them as well if you have them? I was just wondering =).
 
shinra-bansho said:
On further reflection, the 150-200K figure is pretty plausible, even the higher end (just rechecked my extrapolation of Nintendo's most recent IR briefing). I think the AU-NZ number is substantially lower than 100K though.

So the end result is probably around the 800K mark or thereabouts as you and Captain Smoker suggest. Global installed base probably around the 3.6M mark.
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In the UK, Xbox One nearly outsold Wii U LTD at its launch (a few thousand below).

So if the same phenomenon happened in Australia (Xbox One sold 65,917 in Australia at launch), would you put Wii U LTD sales in Australia around 66K?

I agree that 100K is high...no real thought went into that figure.
 
Totakeke said:
What makes a console too late to turn around anyway? It's not like Nintendo doesn't have the cash reserves to weather the storm.

Not saying they will, but I'm sure people have called the 3DS impossible to save back too.
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This is pretty much reality in contrast to folks and their death rattle. As I mentioned a few posts back Nintendo will do well this holiday relative to how they where doing this past year. However more importantly, I'm pretty sure they will have changed trends and will be moving in a positive direction in contrast to the last year going into 2014 which I think is the key part of their recovery plan. Improving sales overall each month in 2014 I think is a bigger goal. This holiday combined with the recent game releases are just laying the long term recovery foundation. (built on games and price/value)

Now dont get it twisted this isnt about crushing it, this is about recovery and getting the fuck out of a hole and doing decent numbers over the long haul.
 
RurouniZel said:
The Wii U isn't failing because "no games", the Wii U isn't failing because it's "weak". Those are commonly sighted reasons and it's not that those are entirely untrue, but that's not the whole story. Remember in the early days of the Wii it sold like hotcakes and its easy to forget that outside of a couple pieces of shovelware the only thing selling the Wii were Wii Sports and Zelda. For almost a full year it didn't really have anything much beyond that.
Click to expand...

I dunno, the Wii U went four months since launch without a single new game from Nintendo themselves (LEGO City), or seven months until an actual first party developed title (Game & Wario). With almost zero third party releases to hold the fort.

Meanwhile the Wii saw the likes of Wii Play, Super Paper Mario, WarioWare Smooth Moves, Pokémon Battle Revolution, Big Brain Academy and Mario Strikers within its first seven months. Along with third party releases like Resident Evil 4 and Sonic.

The initial lack of Wii U games which left retail shelves stale and barren has definitely taken its toll.
 
spock said:
Folks claiming the wiiu is dead or expecting huge numbers for the wiiu this holiday I think are missing whats actually happening. The wiiu is going to do good numbers relative to the horrible numbers its been doing the past year. Expecting it to beat or match its original launch numbers while the X1 and PS4 just launched makes no sense. It might but I dont think thats crucial or even worth expecting. 350k'ish seems reasonable.

...

Nintendo is recovering and will continue do so.The numbers will indeed show it...I'll leave it at that.
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Year over year decline generally isn't a very good indicator of a recovering platform.
 
PhantomR said:
His constant hammering on about that is strictly based on comparison between 3DS and DS, which is silly considering the fact that the DS sold freaking 154 million copies. This year 3DS is performing very well, and has been the only platform that has YoY increase in sales. And that is in a very competitive segment with tablets and smartphones.


The mobile market has TREMENDOUSLY expanded, and Nintendo's dedicated handheld is experiencing year on year growth to keep pace despite other options available. That's a big success no matter how anyone tries to flip it otherwise.
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My "constant hammering" is about the fact that it has never once met Nintendo's own expectations. Never. So my approach is based on Nintendo's expectations. I don't compare it to the DS. It is not a fair fight.
 
Steve Youngblood said:
Year over year decline generally isn't a very good indicator of a recovering platform.
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I agree, however if I were nintendo my YOY expectation this year would be different. First they have the PS4 & X1 to deal/compete with and they are coming off a really bad year. (lack of games, poor marketing, etc). The expectations and strategy given their current reality I think would be different. I see them looking longer term and what kind of footing they can gain and trend change they could initiate. This also appears to me what is happening but will have to see how things play out from now till spring.
 
Infernal Monkey said:
I dunno, the Wii U went four months since launch without a single new game from Nintendo themselves (LEGO City), or seven months until an actual first party developed title (Game & Wario). With almost zero third party releases to hold the fort.

Meanwhile the Wii saw the likes of Wii Play, Super Paper Mario, WarioWare Smooth Moves, Pokémon Battle Revolution, Big Brain Academy and Mario Strikers within its first seven months. Along with third party releases like Resident Evil 4 and Sonic.

The initial lack of Wii U games which left retail shelves stale and barren has definitely taken its toll.
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Nintendo clearly made no use of their year head start. The Wii U could have launched this year with Pikmin 3 and Wonderful 101 instead.
 
This really has been a long time coming. The Wii was a fluke which Nintendo learned nothing from, nor did they capitalize on the momemtum it got for them. Third party relations are just as bad as they always were, they are a decade behind MS and Sony when it comes to system and online infrastructure and they completely out of touch with the modern gaming market. Nintendos "innovation" consists introducing gimmicks that have little impact or influence in the grand scheme of things, and then simply rerelease games from their 4-5 core franchises over and over, which barely use their hardware "innovations" in any meaningful way (most of the games would have been just as good without the gimmicks). Granted, those games are usually fantastic in their own right, but you have to draw a line between their game developers and the corporate divison in this context. As a home console manifacturer, nintendo simply isnt very competent.
 
AstroNut325 said:
that is still abysmal for a system in November!
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Wii U sales will be abysmal in november. Anyone can predict this.

The point is that Pachter predictions are only guesses. I repeat, he is in 19th place on Neogaf 2013 NPD prediction ranking.

People without any special info predict sales better than him.
 
spock said:
I agree, however if I were nintendo my YOY expectation this year would be different. First they have the PS4 & X1 to deal/compete with and they are coming off a really bad year. (lack of games, poor marketing, etc). The expectations and strategy given their current reality I think would be different. I see them looking longer term and what kind of footing they can gain and trend change they could initiate. This also appears to me what is happening but will have to see how things play out from now till spring.
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Except.. they have games out now. If your aiming for sub 500k during a holiday month, you're doing something wrong.

Also- how is any of this helping long term? What footing are they gaining?
 
x3sphere said:
Not surprised if true. I would buy one at $199. $300 is just too much considering how much more you get from the Xbox One or PS4. I've bought every Nintendo console since the NES but cannot bring myself to get the Wii U, it is simply overpriced.

If the GamePad is preventing them from selling it at $199 then they need to stop bundling it and sell it separately.
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For the past week I've basically been using the WIi U without ever touching the gamepad. It doesn't seem like it would take much tweeking to fix the UI to work with the Pro. They should do it. Anyone in love with the idea of off-tv gaming can buy the current model. There's no good reason why I shouldnt be able to peruse the eshop with a Pro controller.

Y2Kev said:
My "constant hammering" is about the fact that it has never once met Nintendo's own expectations. Never. So my approach is based on Nintendo's expectations. I don't compare it to the DS. It is not a fair fight.
Click to expand...

This is what I don't get about the hardcore Nintendo defenders. The 3DS and Wii U are both failures to Nintendo themselves. The Wii U moreso than the 3DS, but still both are major disappointments to the company and their shareholders.
 
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