Is it going to bomb? Of course not, it's a mainline Star Wars film, and the hardcore are
too hardcore not too turn up. You'll break-even with the numbers that crowd brings in alone. With that said, in terms of overall performance... I suspect we're about to see the lowest opening for a mainline entry in the franchise. And without absolutely glowing word of mouth from the hardcore -
the kind that resurrects franchises - we're about to see the lowest theatrical run to boot.
Why do I think that? It's not often corporations let you smell their fear, but here - Disney reek of it. They're trying too hard to sell this as the end of Star Wars... but
we've been here before. "The Saga is complete" was Revenge of Sith's line. You can only "end" a series so many times before it's not enough to pull in the fans. This tactic isn't new - after two lukewarm movies, The Hobbit tried similar marketing with The Battle of the Five Armies' tag line "
The Defining Chapter", which resulted in
maintaining but not growing box office returns, and ultimately,
no one gave a shit about that entire series. For those predicting massive gains based on previous films, don't under-estimate the damage done by The Last Jedi, not in terms of the hardcore fans, but in terms of the average movie goer.
Solo's dismal box office shows that if fans aren't interested in your film - even if it is a Star Wars movie - they're not turning up. After The Last Jedi, fans don't really have much to be interested in. And Disney fucking know it. For all the shit JJ Abrams gets, he knows the business better than most. He can play the game, and there's a reason Disney brought him back. In the most recent trailer for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, they've teased everything from killing C3PO - who literally turns to the camera and says goodbye while sad music plays - to the death of Lando and/or Leia, to - most telling of all - the return of god damn fucking Palpatine...
who already died some thirty odd years ago. They're not teasing the death of Finn or Poe... because no one gives a shit. Their original trailers spent more time reminding fans of the previous films than it did showing the end to their Sequel Trilogy. That reeks desperation and damage control from a company and a man
who knows how to sell nostalgia. Where is the story that should've been told across these three films, that should have generated organic interest in its own conclusion? Rian Johnson killed it with one of the worst sequels ever filmed. So, I think we've seen the evidence that Disney is worried. And if they're worried, it's because they've got numbers somewhere
to make them worried (
like Star Wars merchandising sales dropping year after year after year while virtually everything else is the same or growing).
So, will it bomb? No, Disney and Abrams are too smart to let it fail - their marketing is exactly the right ploy to sucker in enough people to make it a success. But will it meet franchise box office expectations? Nope. And might it redeem the trilogy? Not a fucking chance in any level of hell.
and your sycophantic love for Kathleen Kennedy
