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Georgia and Russia at war
- Thread starter Cdammen
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Ventrue said:
What you're basically advocating is Anarchy/Darwinism. Look, government is a necessary evil and like it or not it is here to stay. The human animal cannot survive in anarchy because we have a strong desire for order and direction. A government isn't always going to be right but you can't just let people break away whenever the hell they want.
As Men in Black put so eloquently,
That is why government is a necessary evil.
I think there are times and places for it and I'm not sure if this is one of them. Hasty decisions will hardly ever turn out well. But if you want to go all out on secession then I want to be able to make my own country.
zoku88 said:
S. Ossetia was on the track of the US South in their Civil War. Russia then stormed in and demanded georgia back up. If anything S. Ossetia was doomed to fail thus their chance and breaking away should have failed but Russia stuck their nose in.
It would have been like during the US Civil War if England suddenly came in and pushed the North out of the South and said stay back. The South would in that sense be free but they didnt win their freedom they are left in a state of limbo if anything
Meanwhile, the U.S. slips in a few more aircraft carrier strike groups into the Persian Gulf, bringing the total # of carrier groups in the region to 5 ....
3 large Nimitz-class carriers plus 2 smaller, Marine 'assaultship' carriers. They're set to goto war with Iran and do battle over the Strait of Hormuz. The last time we had that much naval & air firepower in the Gulf was just before & during the invasion of Iraq in early 2003.
I think U.S. is just giving Russia a free pass on Georgia, because U.S. expects Russia to give it a free pass on Iran, when it happens.
3 large Nimitz-class carriers plus 2 smaller, Marine 'assaultship' carriers. They're set to goto war with Iran and do battle over the Strait of Hormuz. The last time we had that much naval & air firepower in the Gulf was just before & during the invasion of Iraq in early 2003.
I think U.S. is just giving Russia a free pass on Georgia, because U.S. expects Russia to give it a free pass on Iran, when it happens.
Xeke said:
I'm not an anarchist, I'm not advocating the dissolution of government. I'm saying that you can't just parrot "It's sovereign!" in every single situation. Sometimes people want their own separate government; that's why we don't just have one huge country covering the planet.
My argument is that secession is obviously going to be justified in some times and not in others. In this case, the province has been more or less independent for 16 years, they're ethnically different and there is great popular support for secession. I don't know how it could possibly be more appropriate.
Ether_Snake
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camineet said:
Finally looks like someone else here can get a good idea of what's going on.
zoku88 said:
A nation exists as a group of people with common values and a common desire for protection. If the government of this new state does not have the ability to protect itself then no, I think it would be an abysmal failure and end up as nothing more than a puppet for Russia.
Not to mention that I don't agree with the further segmenting of humanity into more, smaller factions that will just end up causing more conflict. We need to come together as a species, not fall apart.
More or less. A nation is a combined equation of political, military, and economic coefficients. If a nation can't muster up enough resources to become one, then it shouldn't.zoku88 said:
If a nation wants to secede, then so be it. Just don't expect the parent nation to let it go without it kicking and screaming.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
you know what's weird? the price of oil dropped today.
it's like they know something.
it's like they know something.
Ether_Snake
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PantherLotus said:
It has been dropping for a month.
makingmusic476
Member
Decent analogy, but Russia is kind've incomparable to England in this case.laserbeam said:
When the Civil War began, England was stuck in an old war mentality (as really the Civil War began an entire new era of warfare). When Lincoln first invaded the South, England sent an army of 8,000 men to the Canadian border, fearing that Lincoln would also try to take Canada. Prior to the Civil War, 8,000 men was considered a force of colossal proportions, but during the Civil War, things changed drastically. The first major battle alone (Bull Run) pitted 75k Northerners vs 45k Southerners (and we still whooped their asses, thank you very much
).But it's what comes after you breakaway that's the most important. Does it matter how you get there?Xeke said:
Some places are lucky and their mother countries let them go. Some places have to fight for themselves. Others are more or less freed when two bigger countries fight each other and then they are 'set free'
Ether_Snake
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Russia will definitly get what it wants.
The US has been testing the waters on many fronts, it's a smart to thing to do, albeit risky. They can afford to trade off a few of their holdings if it means they can get what they want in other regions.
That's always been in the US' favor: having their hands all over the place so they can make concessions when they need something.
I don't see Russia stopping the US on other fronts such as in the ME. And like I said before, Iran is toasted, they can do nothing to defend themselves if an attack was ever carried out against specific infrastructure/facilities that can be linked to the production of nuclear weapons. They would have no justifiable targets to reply against, and they could not attack anything that is linked to the world economy such as oil production facilities.
Russia, China, and the US are all just moving their pieces without any intention to confront one another because they can always make trade offs. But in this game you have to pretend you are not interested in making concessions to begin with so that no one profits from the situation significantly moreso than expected, and you need to have something to trade in order to get what you want.
The US has been testing the waters on many fronts, it's a smart to thing to do, albeit risky. They can afford to trade off a few of their holdings if it means they can get what they want in other regions.
That's always been in the US' favor: having their hands all over the place so they can make concessions when they need something.
I don't see Russia stopping the US on other fronts such as in the ME. And like I said before, Iran is toasted, they can do nothing to defend themselves if an attack was ever carried out against specific infrastructure/facilities that can be linked to the production of nuclear weapons. They would have no justifiable targets to reply against, and they could not attack anything that is linked to the world economy such as oil production facilities.
Russia, China, and the US are all just moving their pieces without any intention to confront one another because they can always make trade offs. But in this game you have to pretend you are not interested in making concessions to begin with so that no one profits from the situation significantly moreso than expected, and you need to have something to trade in order to get what you want.
Currently Russian news is reporting that the naval vessel that was shot down was probably Ukranian made. There's also a bunch of other reports suggesting Georgia is using all kinds of Ukranian made weapons/anti aircraft/tanks. In an interview, a Russian soldier said that he's sure some Ukranians were actually operating tanks. There's also the possibility that Ukraine will try to deny reentry for Russian vessels that have currently been deployed.
Putin gave a speech as well. He's not at all pleased with the way USA responded. Comparing Georgia to Iraq and how Russia's involvement in Georgia is much more justified than US invading Iraq. Said that a lot of what he's seeing out of US is a "cold war mentality".
Russia did confirm that they're now advancing from the other side of Georgia but are meeting less resistance there.
Georgia's president was shown signing a cease fire treaty, but Georgia's resistance had not stopped. During an interview he was shown suddenly looking up at the sky then signaling his bodyguards and running away. No shots were fired.
Putin gave a speech as well. He's not at all pleased with the way USA responded. Comparing Georgia to Iraq and how Russia's involvement in Georgia is much more justified than US invading Iraq. Said that a lot of what he's seeing out of US is a "cold war mentality".
Russia did confirm that they're now advancing from the other side of Georgia but are meeting less resistance there.
Georgia's president was shown signing a cease fire treaty, but Georgia's resistance had not stopped. During an interview he was shown suddenly looking up at the sky then signaling his bodyguards and running away. No shots were fired.
TTG said:
The Boat is very possibly Ukranian in manufacture. Georgia owned 2 Missile Boats. 1 Was sold to them by Ukraine and another by Greece that was a French Model.
After the Soviet Union broke up Russia gave alot of military equipment to various countries but refused to give anything to Georgia. Ukraine and Georgia are very close but I doubt Ukrainians themselves are at the battle fighting.
Ether_Snake
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TTG said:
Well there you go, looks like they will look for a justification to make Ukraine a potential future target. Didn't see this coming out of this conflict, but I'm not surprised.
Georgia-Ukraine-Poland-CR are I believe their targets, but in the case of Poland and CR it would be only a strike against the missile defense shield, altho I think at this point they are trying to put themselves in a position that will make the US backoff on the plan, altho the US will probably never officially back off but instead made it look like Polish and Czech population's opposition prevented the governments from going forward.
EDIT: If Russia feels that other parties are to join in the fight and if they feel that this could make them look less powerful due to the potential loss of aircrafts/etc., then they will back off. At this point it's all about intimidation, they won't risk losing face.
GenericPseudonym
Banned
PantherLotus said:
This, I'm so annoyed by CNBC and Blooomberg who refuse to out speculators because it would threaten their relationships with many market insiders. Regardless this is irrefutable evidence that speculation was driving the oil markets prior to Congress, the SEC and New York Attorney General's office threatened to begin a major crackdown on commodity trading. All the hedge fund managers would rather move on rather than risk going to jail or being fined hence why oil is still falling.
Iran test fires missiles - $11 jump in oil prices
Russia invades Georgia and threatens a crucial oil and gas pipeline - oil decrease
GenericPseudonym
Banned
laserbeam said:
Does anyone think the US is not going to arm the eventual insurgency?
Ether_Snake
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GenericPseudonym said:
They could, doesn't mean it would cause Russia to move out or anything.
As far as I can tell the only way leadership can be overthrown is by the Georgian people if Russia isn't allowed to take the country.laserbeam said:
And as for "war crimes", I clearly saw (on video, the first footage available), the rocket batteries launching a shit ton of rockets in the middle of the night (3:30-4:00am). And unless that was some military exercise around the same time the little skirmishes were going on (...right?) , that is targeting civilian population. :O
GenericPseudonym
Banned
Phoenix said:
Then they are idiots who just eat up the lies spread by so-called "journalists".
I'm going to quote Hunter S. Thompson here: "If I'd written all the truth I knew for the past ten years, about 600 people - including me - would be rotting in prison cells from Rio to Seattle today. Absolute truth is a very rare and dangerous commodity in the context of professional journalism."
Nobody is willing to talk about the speculators because it would threaten many of the people who these journalists rely on for guest appearances, interviews and analysis.
Ether_Snake
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I think Russia can't and won't try to implement another government in Georgia, it's much too complex. They will just make Saakashvili irrelevant, force him to give him what they want until his government is no longer a threat. They can't do anything else unless their completely seize Georgia. They'll just put him in a situation where he will have to fall or be able to do nothing at all anyway. Whoever would replace him would find himself in a weaked position anyway.
GenericPseudonym
Banned
Ether_Snake said:
That's the point, Iraq bogged down the world's most powerful military an American-armed Georgian insurgency could very well tie up Russian forces for a long time.
On the economy: It is clear they are messing with it right now by maniuplation to create confidence again. This is a short lived tactic. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac both had massive loses and the stock market gained, oil went down...just use your head wait another month and watch as it goes back down. They are hoping people won't worry as much about the banking collapse. Stave a little bit of a time in hopes that it does not get truly ugly.
I suprised this move by Russia didn't cause the market to go down though..
I suprised this move by Russia didn't cause the market to go down though..
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