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[Deleted member 1235]

Doesn't Georgia kind of deserve the smash for that unprovoked thing they did?

Man, fucking with russia is a pretty stupid plan?

 

[M3wThr33]

They tried this before in 1992, as well. They're just an overall stupid government when it comes to dealing with this shit.

 

[Uncle]

http://www.reuters.com/article/asiaCrisis/idUSLC544470

MOSCOW, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Russians are divided on whether the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia should become part of their country but few believe it should remain within Georgia, a survey by independent pollster Levada showed on Tuesday.

Forty six percent of respondents said they wanted to see South Ossetia incoporated into Russia. A further 34 percent said South Ossetia should become an independent country. Only 4 percent said it should stay part of Georgia.

Levada surveyed 2,100 Russians in large cities on Saturday and Sunday during the peak of fighting between Russian and Georgian forces over South Ossetia.

When asked where their sympathies lay in the conflict, 71 percent said they sided with the South Ossetians, 2 percent said they sided with Georgia and 21 percent said they backed neither side.

"The polls shows that citizens of Russia are on the side of South Ossetia," said Denis Volkov of the Levada Centre.

Levada's figures also found that support for Russia's military intervention was not overwhelmingly.

A slim majority, 53 percent, said Russia should have sent its troops into South Ossetia but 36 percent were not supportive.

Humanitarian aid from Russia to South Ossetia was backed by 81 percent of Russians, Levada was told by respondents.

Because the poll was carried out at short notice, it did not look at rural areas of Russia but had been based on surveys conducted in Moscow and other large cities, Volkov said. (Reporting by Conor Sweeney; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

 

[Zenith]

http://www.reuters.com/article/asiaCrisis/idUSLC544470

Given the "news" they've been brought up with I'm surprised there are still 4% against.

 

[Rur0ni]

I suspect maybe Ossetia and Abkhazia will get seperated, and then join The Union at a later time.

 

[scorcho]

so if McCain and a litany of warmongering conservative pundits are correct, Putin is now aiming his targets on Kiev and drawing plans for the rest of the former Eastern blocs (and the West!).

they must be stopped now. or stopped further.

 

[Hwang Seong-Gyeong]

so if McCain and a litany of warmongering conservative pundits are correct, Putin is now aiming his targets on Kiev and drawing plans for the rest of the former Eastern blocs (and the West!).

they must be stopped now. or stopped further.

Ukraine sure, but it's Ukraine's fault they provocate Russia whenever they can after the Orange Revolution when pro American and anti Russia people came to power. As for the claims about other regions of Europe or countries, no those are absolutely ridiculous.

A country with 8 million ethnic Russians, and a population of 40% that speaks russian as a native language you'd think they would at least keep a neutral foriegn policy with Russia.

 

[NLB2]

Ukraine sure, but it's Ukraine's fault they provocate Russia whenever they can after the Orange Revolution when pro American and anti Russia people came to power. As for the claims about other regions of Europe or countries, no those are absolutely ridiculous.

A country with 8 million ethnic Russians, and a population of 40% that speaks russian as a native language you'd think they would at least keep a neutral foriegn policy with Russia.

The hostility towards Russia probably has a lot to do with how their country came to have 8 million ethnic Russians.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

 

[Zen]

Putin alledgedly trying to have Viktor Yushchenko killed had some effect on the Ukrainian disposition.

Don't forget the amount of murders Putin has signed off on, from journalists to the rightfully elected leader of Ukraine.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yushchenko#Dioxin_poisoning

 

[Hwang Seong-Gyeong]

The hostility towards Russia probably has a lot to do with how their country came to have 8 million ethnic Russians.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

Kiev is the first capital of Russia, the nations are blood linked, they speak almost the same language. Russia and Ukraine had been one country for over 300 years, many people in East Ukraine wouldn't even be able to tell you if they are Russian or Ukrainian because their blood is so mixed and both nations have been assimiliated together.

That famine has absolutely nothing to do with the number of Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine either, a huge portions of the land that are today in current day Ukraine were Russian land, if Ukraine were to be restored to it's pre Soviet days during the Russian empire then it would probably be half the size right now. And how about Crimea, a part of Russia given to Ukraine by Nikita Khrushev as sign and celebration of Russia and Ukraine being one country for 300 years.

 

[scorcho]

A country with 8 million ethnic Russians, and a population of 40% that speaks russian as a native language you'd think they would at least keep a neutral foriegn policy with Russia.

which really highlights how muddled Bush's policy regarding Ukraine and Georgia has been. on the one hand they fostered reckless behavior by (and Israel, funnily enough) supplying both with lucrative weapons and military training and the blanket protection of NATO membership. on the other are musings from the DOD and Bush admin that indicate they warned both to tamp down any aggressive posture towards Russia.

US foreign policy deserves good amounts of blame here.

 

[Azih]

the nations are blood linked.

Thank God I don't live in the Old World.

 

[Tamanon]

Wrong thread dangit!

 

[Hwang Seong-Gyeong]

which really highlights how muddled Bush's policy regarding Ukraine and Georgia has been. on the one hand they fostered reckless behavior by (and Israel, funnily enough) supplying both with lucrative weapons and military training and the blanket protection of NATO membership. on the other are musings from the DOD and Bush admin that indicate they warned both to tamp down any aggressive posture towards Russia.

US foreign policy deserves good amounts of blame here.

Worst of all Ukraine during the collapse of the soviet union, signed agreements with Russia that it will remain neutral. Entering Nato, or supporting Georgia is not a neutral move, and an undemocratic move when the majority of the population DOESN'T support the entrance of Nato.

People like Yushenko's "Westernization" of Ukraine, but never did they want to become an anti Russian country.

 

[Hwang Seong-Gyeong]

Wrong thread dangit!

Not really because Georgia is a warning sign to Ukraine, Ukraine will be the next place on the list where Russia will make a heavy push. And no I don't think it will be a military push or whatever, but they'll pressure Ukraine with gas, oil prices and politically.

 

[Zen]

Worst of all Ukraine during the collapse of the soviet union, signed agreements with Russia that it will remain neutral. Entering Nato, or supporting Georgia is not a neutral move, and an undemocratic move when the majority of the population DOESN'T support the entrance of Nato.

People like Yushenko's "Westernization" of Ukraine, but never did they want to become an anti Russian country.

Officially speaking, the purpose of Nato is no longer containment of Russia, officially. Do you have any sources to back up that the Majority of the Ukraine doesn't support Nato?

 

[zoku88]

Ukraine sure, but it's Ukraine's fault they provocate Russia whenever they can after the Orange Revolution when pro American and anti Russia people came to power. As for the claims about other regions of Europe or countries, no those are absolutely ridiculous.

A country with 8 million ethnic Russians, and a population of 40% that speaks russian as a native language you'd think they would at least keep a neutral foriegn policy with Russia.

I forget, are you Ukrainian? I forget. I know someone in this thread was Ukrainian, but I forget who.

 

[Hwang Seong-Gyeong]

Officially speaking, the purpose of Nato is no longer containment of Russia, officially. Do you have any sources to back up that the Majority of the Ukraine doesn't support Nato?

Sure it's on TV all the time here, polls, and what not.

http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=36899

"Recent polls suggest 64 percent of the population is against NATO membership whereas only 19 percent favour it."

http://www.bundesregierung.de/Content/EN/Artikel/2008/07/2008-07-21-merkel-ukraine__en.html

Over half of the population of Ukraine is, however, against NATO membership. Resistance is great especially in the east of the country, which is where ethnic Russians live. Russia has also repeatedly come out against Ukraine joining NATO.

 

[Hwang Seong-Gyeong]

I forget, are you Ukrainian? I forget. I know someone in this thread was Ukrainian, but I forget who.

Me, actually I'm from Crimea itself a city called Simferopol. Probably the next area Russia will put heavy pressure on.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea

Crimea is a parliamentary republic which is governed by the Constitution of Crimea in accordance with the laws of Ukraine. The capital and administrative seat of the republic's government is the city of Simferopol, located in the center of the peninsula. Crimea's total area is 26,200 square kilometres (10,100 sq mi). As of 2007, Crimea has a population of 1,973,185 inhabitants.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Crimea became part of the newly independent Ukraine, a situation largely unexpected by its population that was ethnically and culturally Russian for the most part.[citation needed] This led to tensions between Russia and Ukraine. With the Black Sea Fleet based on the peninsula, worries of armed skirmishes were occasionally raised.

After the All-Crimean Referendum was conducted on January 20, 1991, the Crimean Oblast was transformed into the Crimean ASSR as part of the Ukrainian SSR and the city of Sevastopol was granted special government status in the UkSSR.[13] When the results came in on the Ukrainian referendum on independence on December 1, 1991, it showed that 54.19% of residents from Crimea and 57.07% from Sevastopol city voted in favor of Ukrainian independence.[14][15] Based on the resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Crimea on February 26, 1992, the Crimean ASSR was renamed into the Republic of Crimea. Crimea later proclaimed self-government on May 5, 1992.[16][17] On the next day, the first Crimean constitution was put into effect. On May 19, Crimea agreed to remain as part of Ukraine and its Verkhovna Rada of Crimea annulled their proclamation of self-government. On June 30, Crimean Communists had forced the Kiev government to expand on the already extensive autonomous status of Crimea.[18] In the same period, Russian president Boris Yeltsin and Ukraine's Leonid Kravchuk agreed to divide the former Soviet Black Sea Fleet between Russia and the newly-formed Ukrainian Navy.[19]

Also check the ethnicity of the population.

Ethnic groups 58.32% Russians
24.32% Ukrainians
12.10% Crimean Tatars


Crimea is an autonomus republic that has 2 official languages, Russian and Ukranian.

 

[Hwang Seong-Gyeong]

Update: The parlament of South Ossetia asks the Russian Federation to recognize it's independence officially.

Abhazia will probably next, wonder when the official recognition will be announced and what countries will support it. I suspect Russia, Germany, France will. While Ukraine, America, Poland, Estonia, Lativia will strongly oppose it.

Kosovo redux essentially.

 

[Azih]

What do you mean by 'anti-Russian' country?

 

[Hwang Seong-Gyeong]

What do you mean by 'anti-Russian' country?

Ukraine has time and time again gone against it's very own financial intrests because they benefit Russia. The goverment leads an anti Russian policy all around. Anything it takes from giving ex Nazi supporting people higher pensions than the ones that fought on the side of the Red Army, naming streets in the name of people given to anthema by the orthodox church to provoke the russian orthodox population, supressing the use of russian language as much as possible, essentially when the orange pro americans came to power they started rewriting history of the origins of ukrainians, russians, belarussians and slavs as a whole. They want to make a Ukranian Orthodox church that answers to pope essentially making it a catholic one.

Lots of inner anti russian moves that are obvious to all of us, not obvious to someone with no clue of the country or region.

EDIT: And of course Nato, the official line can be whatever. But Nato is still the expansion of potentially hostile military infrastructure to Russian borders, and there's a reason Russia is worried. There's a reason why most of GAF was shouting "If Georgia was in Nato, we'd strike back" or something along these lines. It IS aggressive military infrastructure on Russian borders.

 

[Walshicus]

Abhazia will probably next, wonder when the official recognition will be announced and what countries will support it. I suspect Russia, Germany, France will.

I doubt this...

Anyway, the West missed an opportunity to bloody the noses of the Russians here. Still, until we Europeans can find a way to not rely on their gas there's little choice but to be diplomatic with the bastards.

 

[Hwang Seong-Gyeong]

I doubt this...

Anyway, the West missed an opportunity to bloody the noses of the Russians here. Still, until we Europeans can find a way to not rely on their gas there's little choice but to be diplomatic with the bastards.

I suspect Germany would be intrested longterm because they can take Poland's Western lands that have like 2 million Germans living in them. Maybe I'm wrong, but it makes sense to me.

After Kosovo anything goes, since international law has been trivialized.

 

[bengraven]

I still can't believe both my girlfriend and her mother didn't realize Georgia was a country at first. They both thought we were dealing with an invasion on US soil and only a couple hours away from here.

 

[Walshicus]

I suspect Germany would be intrested longterm because they can take Poland's Western lands that have like 2 million Germans living in them. Maybe I'm wrong, but it makes sense to me.

After Kosovo anything goes, since international law has been trivialized.

This has to be some crazy sense of humour that doesn't survive translation.

Germany and Poland share a tier of government - the European Commission. There will be no border changes that aren't mutually agreed.

 

[szaromir]

Kiev is the first capital of Russia, the nations are blood linked, they speak almost the same language. Russia and Ukraine had been one country for over 300 years, many people in East Ukraine wouldn't even be able to tell you if they are Russian or Ukrainian because their blood is so mixed and both nations have been assimiliated together.

Do you honestly see it as being one country for 300 years? And would you say that Ukraine and Poland were one country in XVIth and XVIIth century?

I suspect Germany would be intrested longterm because they can take Poland's Western lands that have like 2 million Germans living in them. Maybe I'm wrong, but it makes sense to me.

Where the hell did you take that number from?:lol All minorities combined in entire Poland make for ~3% of its population which would give us around 1million, of which most are not even Germans. Not to mention that I don't know anyone who lives here in western Poland and considers himself a German, which I should know if there was a significant German population. And idea of Germany going after this area is surrealistic in today's world.

 

[zoku88]

I still can't believe both my girlfriend and her mother didn't realize Georgia was a country at first. They both thought we were dealing with an invasion on US soil and only a couple hours away from here.

You have to be kidding..

Actually not, I don't remember learning about Georgia in the education system....

 

[Hwang Seong-Gyeong]

Do you honestly see it as being one country for 300 years? And would you say that Ukraine and Poland were one country in XVIth and XVIIth century?

Now that would depend on what part of Ukraine you come from, East or West

 

[szaromir]

Now that would depend on what part of Ukraine you come from, East or West

So I guess East would see themselves as one with Russia, while West separate from Russia (and earlier from Poland)?

 

[Hwang Seong-Gyeong]

So I guess East would see themselves as one with Russia, while West separate from Russia (and earlier from Poland)?

Pretty much, Ukraine is essentially divided into 2 absolute opposite opinions. East and West.

It's kind of sad to see so much divison amongst slavs though, you'd think Russians for example would have worked out something with the Polish long ago. Then again there is a history of occupation with that.

 

[besada]

AP article discussing damage in Tshkinvali. Appears the "attacks on civilians" comments might have been a bit overstated. Imagine my shock.

 

[camineet]

Russia masses naval force opposite Georgia’s third sensitive region, Ajaria

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

August 12, 2008, 11:41 PM (GMT+02:00)


While the world’s attention was fixed on the Russian-Georgian contest over two breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, DEBKAfile’s exclusive military sources reveal that Russia has massed a fleet of warships and marine forces opposite the Gerogia's semi-autonomous Black Sea region of Ajaria.

Moscow is preparing to punish what it regards as Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili’s further provocations by occupying this coastal strip on Georgia’s southwestern border with Turkey.

The appearance of Ukraine’s president Viktor Yushchenko alongside Saakashvili, leaders of the pro-Western Orange and Rose Revolutions, at a huge national rally outside the Georgian parliament in Tbilisi Tuesday night, Aug. 12, may well be seen by the Kremlin as over the top. It came hours after Russian President Dimitry Medvedev’s gesture to the European mediation bid of ordering the Russian military operation in Georgia halted there and then.

Half of Ajaria’s ethnically Georgian population professes Islam, in contrast to the country’s Christian majority. The other half is Russian.

Ajarian has come to mean a Georgian Muslim.

The Russian Black Sea buildup is deployed opposite the Ajurian capital of Batumi, an important port for the shipment of oil from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Its oil refinery handles Caspian oil from Azerbaijan.

When Saakashvili was elected president five years ago, the region’s leaders refused to recognize his authority and maintained close ties with Moscow up until May 2004 when, after Ajurians demonstrated against Tbilisi, he ordered them to obey the Georgian constitution and disarm.

Russia maintained a military base at Batumi which it agreed to close by November 2007.

DEBKAfile’s sources report that by recovering the base, Moscow will not only punish the Georgian president, but also profit from the turmoil of the past week in three ways:


1. A third semi-autonomous province will be hacked off Georgian territory after the loss of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

2. Russia will gain a strategic Black Sea foothold at Turkey’s back door.

3. It will also control a gateway to Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Armenia.

http://debka.com/headline.php?hid=5505

 

[Xeke]

What would Russia have to lose by joining NATO? It's not like the Warsaw Pact exists anymore.:lol

 

[Hwang Seong-Gyeong]

How much reliability does that source/article have?

 

[ErasureAcer]

yahoo intro:

Declaring "the aggressor has been punished," the Kremlin ordered a halt Tuesday to Russia's devastating assault on Georgia.

WTF...didn't Russia start this shit?

 

[Formless]

yahoo intro:

Declaring "the aggressor has been punished," the Kremlin ordered a halt Tuesday to Russia's devastating assault on Georgia.

WTF...didn't Russia start this shit?

Not in terms of definitive military action. Georgia attacked South Ossetia.

 

[Roude Leiw]

AP article discussing damage in Tshkinvali. Appears the "attacks on civilians" comments might have been a bit overstated. Imagine my shock.

wow that really surprises me ;P

 

[Hwang Seong-Gyeong]

What would Russia have to lose by joining NATO? It's not like the Warsaw Pact exists anymore.:lol

Although not totally relevant, I think Putin proposed to join the European Union. Not officially but said it at a conference or something, it was laughed off by practically everyone.

 

[avaya]

What Yulia and Viktor want above everything is to bring Ukraine into the European Union. If the Serbs now want to actively join the European Union anyone will want to. I couldn’t have imagined in 1997 that the Serbs would want to join the EU to this extent.

Might not be full membership but access to the single market.

NATO is a silly issue of no real material importance and it is used by the Russian's as an excuse to try and hold onto the energy monopoly. My points about Ukraine being further ahead than Georgia of joining NATO was based on the value of Ukraine to NATO as opposed to Georgia.

I want to see an expansionary European Union, we are slowly but surely dragging the Eastern Bloc of 2004 out of poverty as they are allowed access to the single market. The expansion to EU25 itself is a tough project and we'll drag these nations to a higher standard of living. Membership is of course entirely voluntary. Romania and Bulgaria make EU27. Sure it will be tougher on the France-Germany-UK axis of wealth but we owe it to the Eastern European people after what we have let transpire over the last 70yrs.

European Union membership will almost certainly guarantee a degree of prosperity and will rejuvenate the economies and labour markets of all who join.

Ukraine, if it can maintain the reforms and policies that the Orange Revolution started will be heading towards the application stage. Just a case of filling out the 80,000 page form. Joining the EU this century is just a macro version of Berlin post-WWII.

Now let's get round the negotiation table with Ahmidinejad and put our petty differences aside and build the Caspian-Persian pipeline. Together we can in one fell swoop destroy the foundation of the Gazprom and Transneft monopoly. You do this and the Kazakhs will also pump directly from Tengiz to the Persian Gulf. At the same time Areva and the Japanese can give the Iranian's proper Nuclear reactors for power generation monitored by the IAEA not the shitty Russian POS they are currently building. The rewards of this strategy are stratospheric. It is also the only route.

The opposite would be to continue down the chest beating path with Iran and if any European multinational does manage to build the Caspian-Persian pipeline that will become an extension of Transneft in the Middle East because the Iranian's would feel closer to the Russian's.

For the EU there is only one way to go about this and that is why we have never put forward the passive aggressive military dick waving the US hawks seem to be engaged in. I couldn't don't care about Israel because the Israeli's have nuclear weapons - they are more than capable of defending themselves.

 

[Hwang Seong-Gyeong]

If it's taking forever for Turkey to be accepted into the EU, why would Ukraine get in fast? Seriously I have major doubts about Ukraine getting into the EU in the next 10-20 years, who wants such a country with that much Russian speaking population and influence in the EU? Yushenko has a vision of West Ukraine, Yulia is just a political whore that sways to where the money goes.

EDIT: Plus don't forget the current orange revolution goverment is very pro american, not sure how comfortable the EU would be accepting them, until they get a more pro EU goverment.

 

[Deku]

Turkey's religion and history is a stumbling block.

 

[szaromir]

Although not totally relevant, I think Putin proposed to join the European Union. Not officially but said it at a conference or something, it was laughed off by practically everyone.

Well, obviously a contry must fulfill a number of standards if it wants to be a EU member. Real democracy for starters would be nice.:lol

It's kind of sad to see so much divison amongst slavs though, you'd think Russians for example would have worked out something with the Polish long ago. Then again there is a history of occupation with that.

That is so not possible. Russia still has imperialistic ambitions and will never be able to see Poland as an equal partner, or probably any other slav country or that matter.

 

[avaya]

If it's taking forever for Turkey to be accepted into the EU, why would Ukraine get in fast? Seriously I have major doubts about Ukraine getting into the EU in the next 10-20 years, who wants such a country with that much Russian speaking population and influence in the EU? Yushenko has a vision of West Ukraine, Yulia is just a political whore that sways to where the money goes.

The problem with Turkey is that the majority of the population is Muslim and this doesn't play well in areas of mainland Europe. This is just a transient feeling though and it will pass. The big sticking points are the human rights issues in Turkey (true or not, the accusations and claims exist) and it quickly becomes apparent that there are some serious issues there.

It doesn’t matter if they are Russian speaking. It doesn’t matter at all. That has no relevance. There are no racial criteria.

Ukraine won't join for a good decade or two but slowly but surely, if the path laid out by the current incumbents is set then it is fairly certain that the EU will begin entertaining the idea of the integration into the single market.

The problem with Ukraine will be the same problem that Poland, Romania and Bulgaria faced with EU public opinion: "they want our jobs" or the classic "OMG they will all come to our cities and we will be overrun".

 

[ItAintEasyBeinCheesy]

yahoo intro:

Declaring "the aggressor has been punished," the Kremlin ordered a halt Tuesday to Russia's devastating assault on Georgia.

WTF...didn't Russia start this shit?

No, South Ossetia apparently belongs to Russia so they where defending themselves.

 

[Hwang Seong-Gyeong]

The problem with Turkey is that the majority of the population is Muslim and this doesn't play well in areas of mainland Europe. This is just a transient feeling though and it will pass. The big sticking points are the human rights issues in Turkey (true or not, the accusations and claims exist) and it quickly becomes apparent that there are some serious issues there.

It doesn’t matter if they are Russian speaking. It doesn’t matter at all. That has no relevance. There are no racial criteria.

Ukraine won't join for a good decade or two but slowly but surely, if the path laid out by the current incumbents is set then it is fairly certain that the EU will begin entertaining the idea of the integration into the single market.

The problem with Ukraine will be the same problem that Poland, Romania and Bulgaria faced with EU public opinion: "they want our jobs" or the classic "OMG they will all come to our cities and we will be overrun".

Well another problem I see with Ukraine is size, it's 47 million opposed to the other smaller countries. Though Poland has around 30 million people if I'm not mistaken.

But the point is at the moment the promises of EU for Ukraine are just that, promises and if Ukraine might have to wait decades like you pointed out that's not what the people are being told here, and there is major propoganda and misinformation happening here. Politicians are taking as if we're already in Nato and the EU.

 

[OpinionatedCyborg]

Ceasefire!

 

[zoku88]

So, I wonder what Russia is going to get out of this truce.

And S Ossetia... and that .. other region...

 

[Talas]

So, I wonder what Russia is going to get out of this truce.

And S Ossetia... and that .. other region...

Anything they want.

 

[clockradiospeakers]

I'm quite shocked this is 'over'. I wonder how long it'll last.