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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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A

Ashes

Banned
Well, just speaking to someone who knows their politics, says, we're probably going to get nothing.
I put to him, that Germany needs us. He said, not in the long run - on balance Germany would need the EU to function more. 2 years isn't enough to renegotiate anything. And likely we would fall out of EU.
 
J

jstripes

Banned
I just realized England has entered The Darkest Timeline.

- Eurocentric big business flees to the continent and London is fucked.
- Scotland separates from the UK.
- Northern Ireland leaves the UK and reunites with Ireland.
- King Charles.
 
A

Ashes

Banned
Zaph said:
Had to stop there.

Sorry, but unless you left out the part where you're currently living abroad and voted via post, I just can't believe that.
Click to expand...

Guy at work talked about direct democracy. Shame we didn't talk about it before referendum. Seems like he made a single issue vote without thinking of the catastrophic wider implications. He didn't answer how he voted or whether he did. But started off saying he would have voted Leave.
 
P

Palculator

Unconfirmed Member
Right, all this talk made me order some Irn-Bru to try it, because it seems surprisingly easy to get here in Germany. To the Scots!
 
I

Izuna

Banned
Ashes said:
"The pound strengthened 0.9 percent to $1.3344, supported by technical indicators that suggested the record two-day loss since Thursday’s vote was excessive. The move comes even after the U.K. was stripped of its top credit grade by S&P Global Ratings. Fitch Ratings also lowered the country’s rank."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...le-u-s-index-futures-rise-with-oil-after-rout
Click to expand...

It's semantics, but we have a very different definition of the term "recovered".

EDIT: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1W better view
 
I

Izuna

Banned
Ashes said:
Semantics? Perhaps you'd have more authority if you could find me a financial analyst who differs from my opinion and agrees with yours?
The rate sucks compared to last week, but that's not what is being asked.
Click to expand...

Well, let's consider that you quoted an article that had the rates 0.99% higher than it is currently*.

03:48 AM BST, 29/06/2016
 
U

Uhyve

Member
Ashes said:
"The pound strengthened 0.9 percent to $1.3344, supported by technical indicators that suggested the record two-day loss since Thursday’s vote was excessive. The move comes even after the U.K. was stripped of its top credit grade by S&P Global Ratings. Fitch Ratings also lowered the country’s rank."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...le-u-s-index-futures-rise-with-oil-after-rout
Click to expand...
I mean, yeah, it bounced back a tiny amount after a huge dive from its fairly stable 1.43ish (prior to the brexit buzz) to 1.314. But after a such a large drop, the improvement is practically negligible in comparison. The idea that the GBP might recover any time soon is laughable right now.

Currencies are highly affected by uncertainty, I don't see any large improvements until article 50 is invoked (followed by another drop) and proper plans are publicly and plainly set out. Even then, we won't be seeing 1.43 for a very long time.

Edit: I'd wager that the pound will recover to 1.36 max for the foreseeable future. And that's probably overly optimistic.
 
J

jellies_two

Member
Ashes said:
Semantics? Perhaps you'd have more authority if you could find me a financial analyst who differs from my opinion and agrees with yours?
The rate sucks compared to last week, but that's not what is being asked.
Click to expand...

It is a given that any downward move in anything is going to be presented as evidence the UK is screwed, and any upward move will be ignored.

As a "sky is not clearly falling" subscriber, I still think the FTSE 250 going up 3.5% yesterday is not a vote of confidence in Brexit, but certainly many will state flatly that same % move downwards is a vote of total and utter no-confidence.
To me either is understandable volatility. I'd like to see the trend in a month or three.
When something goes up, doomsayers just stop talking about it, and shift to some other indicator.
 
I

Izuna

Banned
Ashes said:
I give up. I can't seem to make anyone see sense.
Click to expand...

The pound is either:

- Better
- Worse
- Recovering
- Worsening

At the point in time, it's worse than it was in the very article you posted. So unless there is a sign that it is recovering, how could say it has recovered?

I hope it improves but I imagine it won't go above $1.45 for a while.
 
D

DavidDesu

Member
Palculator said:
Right, all this talk made me order some Irn-Bru to try it, because it seems surprisingly easy to get here in Germany. To the Scots!
Click to expand...

Keep us informed, I want to know what you think. Love it personally, though I don't drink as much these days as I usually drink diet stuff and diet Irn Bru is just wrong.

As for the current state of British politics, Irvine Welsh (@IrvineWelsh) sums up the clusterfuck that is Labour right now:

The Tories have just literally destroyed the country and yet Labour still -almost effortlessly- find a way to lose to them. Amazing.
Click to expand...

Could not make it up.
 
30yearsofhurt

30yearsofhurt

Member
jellies_two said:
It is a given that any downward move in anything is going to be presented as evidence the UK is screwed, and any upward move will be ignored.

As a "sky is not clearly falling" subscriber, I still think the FTSE 250 going up 3.5% yesterday is not a vote of confidence in Brexit, but certainly many will state flatly that same % move downwards is a vote of total and utter no-confidence.
To me either is understandable volatility. I'd like to see the trend in a month or three.
When something goes up, doomsayers just stop talking about it, and shift to some other indicator.
Click to expand...

The thing you have to wait for is your international investment figures for the June and September qtrs as well as your unemployment figures. This should give you an idea of the short term impacts. Then again the ONS has a bit of a reputation with 'massaging' their unemployment figures.
 
I

Izuna

Banned
Stinkles said:
Well not with faulty or naive information you can't.
Click to expand...

If I missed something I'm happy to be correction. I have Bloomberg's Brexit livestream on, and I don't see how "recovered slightly" makes any sense. At that point in time, sure, but not since the question was asked.
 
A

Ashes

Banned
Uhyve said:
I mean, yeah, it bounced back a tiny amount after a huge dive from its fairly stable 1.43ish (prior to the brexit buzz) to 1.314. But after a such a large drop, the improvement is practically negligible in comparison. The idea that the GBP might recover any time soon is laughable right now.

Currencies are highly affected by uncertainty, I don't see any large improvements until article 50 is invoked (followed by another drop) and proper plans are publicly and plainly set out. Even then, we won't be seeing 1.45 for a very long time.

Edit: I'd wager that the pound will recover to 1.36 max for the foreseeable future. And that's probably overly optimistic.
Click to expand...

Then buy now and sell at 1.45. Because forecasts say it will be down to £1.20 by year end.
 
B

Breakage

Member
Tyaren said:
Don't worry, they'll get shredded by the same angry mob, that they created, once it sinks in that:
- there will be no access to the single market without free movement of people.
- the UK will still have to pay it's fee.
- the UK will still have to abide to a large part of EU laws and regulations.
- the UK will have no say in the making of these laws and regulations anymore.

This is in each and every way worse than before. It's the exact opposite of taking control.
And this does not even include a very likely recession, rising prices, loss of jobs, no more extensive funding from the EU...and probably loosing Scotland.
Click to expand...

All this only to settle for something that is worse than before. Entirely self-inflicted and unnecessary. We had it good before and now they've screwed it up.
The politicians who were complicit in enabling this mess are utterly incompetent. How can people be talking about Boris Johnson being the new PM when he helped to guide the nation into this disaster?
The media should be ripping into the architects of Brexit, instead they seem to be fawning over them and giving out free unchallanged platforms to spread their bullshit rhetoric.
Do they not understand what Farage, Johnson, Gove & Co. have done?
Everyone seems so relaxed about where these fucking politicians are taking us as a nation.
 
I

Izuna

Banned
Ashes said:
I quoted daily bloomberg market report. He quoted a live chart at 4 in the morning.
My numbers agreed to his initial post.
Click to expand...

Not initially, no.

But we should put this to bed until "peak time" right?
?
I'm going by what Bloomberg is currently reporting here: http://www.bloomberg.com/live/europe

The terms "recovered lightly" is the opposite of what they have been saying.

semantics

One hour before and after that article was published it was ~1.32 :£
Okay I know I'm taking the piss right now.
 
A

Ashes

Banned
Cobalt Izuna said:
Not initially, no.

But we should put this to bed until "peak time" right?
?
I'm going by what Bloomberg is currently reporting here: http://www.bloomberg.com/live/europe

The terms "recovered lightly" is the opposite of what they have been saying.

semantics

One hour before and after that article was published it was ~1.32 :£
Okay I know I'm taking the piss right now.
Click to expand...

It's fine if you're taking the piss. Some humour is better than none.
At present I am all out humour.
 
T

Tyaren

Member
Breakage said:
All this only to settle for something that is worse than before. Entirely self-inflicted and unnecessary. We had it good before and now they've screwed it up.
The politicians who were complicit in enabling this mess are utterly incompetent. How can people be talking about Boris Johnson being the new PM when he helped to guide the nation into this disaster?
The media should be ripping into the architects of Brexit, instead they seem to be fawning over them and giving out free unchallanged platforms to spread their bullshit rhetoric.
Do they not understand what Farage, Johnson, Gove & Co. have done?
Everyone seems so relaxed about where these fucking politicians are taking us as a nation.
Click to expand...

Just give it some time, the day of truth will come. I'm pretty sure they are right now already shitting their pants. :) There is a reason they are suddenly so glum and a few inches smaller. Excluding Farage of course who is just delusional.

There is the chance however they might spin their incompetence into: "The evil EU is punishing us, now that we want our freedom, and won't give us any better deal, bohooo!" I can see that one already coming. :/
 
U

Uhyve

Member
Ashes said:
Then buy now and sell at 1.45. Because forecasts say it will be down to £1.20 by year end.
Click to expand...
Lol, I should've said 1.43. As in, we won't be seeing the old value of the pound for a long time... if ever. But man, 1.20 is seriously a scary thought, the business I work for doesn't have huge margins and imports most of our products from Europe, seriously uncertain times even for fairly small businesses.

Also, all my money is in pounds, so I can't buy now and if I was a smart person, I'd have bought USD when we were at 1.5 for a glorious couple of minutes.
 
A

Ashes

Banned
Uhyve said:
Lol, I should've said 1.43. As in, we won't be seeing the old value of the pound for a long time... if ever. But man, 1.20 is seriously a scary thought, the business I work for doesn't have huge margins and imports most of our products from Europe, seriously uncertain times even for fairly small businesses.

Also, all my money is in pounds, so I can't buy now and if I was a smart person, I'd have bought USD when we were at 1.5 for a glorious couple of minutes.
Click to expand...

You can buy. London is the world's leading global exchange. Sometimes upto half the world's currency exchange happens here.
But I'd probably not buy until it drops below $1.20.
 
-Plasma Reus-

-Plasma Reus-

Service guarantees member status
What's up with the British press exaggerating the issues within the EU? They make it sound as though the EU is crumbling. They seem to either say one of two things:

1.EU is weakening. Euro is shit. Immigration!
2. Other members of the EU will leave too!

Then subsequently, every EU journalist or EU rep they interview shuts them down.

They've been doing this since before the campaign and believe has contributed to some of the leave votes.

It's absurd how the leave and remain campaign were considered to be on the same platform of logic. There was no logical argument the leave campaign offered to leave the EU. And the press had a responsibility to bring this to light. But they didn't.
 
A

Ashes

Banned
jellies_two said:
It is a given that any downward move in anything is going to be presented as evidence the UK is screwed, and any upward move will be ignored.

As a "sky is not clearly falling" subscriber, I still think the FTSE 250 going up 3.5% yesterday is not a vote of confidence in Brexit, but certainly many will state flatly that same % move downwards is a vote of total and utter no-confidence.
To me either is understandable volatility. I'd like to see the trend in a month or three.
When something goes up, doomsayers just stop talking about it, and shift to some other indicator.
Click to expand...

The sky may not be falling, but the ground beneath our feet is definitely creaking.
It's best to forget how everyone voted, and just comment as objectively as possible.
 
G

GamerMax73

Member
Hazzuh said:
Jeremy Hunt set out his stall for leadership built on the idea of a 2nd referendum after negotiations finish. Who knows, we might see people like Hunt and Fallon sharing a platform on this lol. I'd say stranger things have happened but I'm not sure if they have.
Click to expand...
I wish him all the best securing negotiations without triggering a50 then.
 
Spladam

Spladam

Member
I was trying to finish reading through the first thread, but those kids on the train video and that poor scared German lady stopped me dead in my tracks. Wow guys.

It's not just in the U.K though, I remember after the refugee crisis was under way and that journalist lady tripped that dad and kicked that girl, the comments in the videos from all over Europe and Asia against Muslims was frankly terrifying. These times are one of the largest challenges, or reversals, against globalization that I've seen in my lifetime, and I come from the days of the Cold War. This is crazy.
 
Bitch Pudding

Bitch Pudding

Member
Sickboy007 said:
NO
Last edited by Funky Papa; Yesterday at 11:02 PM. Reason: what in the name of Cthulhu made you believe that posting porn was ok even with nsfw tags
Click to expand...

And we're off to a good start, it seems.

Yesterday I had a nice conversation with one of the upper echelons of a German car manufacturer which is heavily involved in the UK. He said that they hope that there will be trade deals to avoid customs right away, but he also said that they fear a deal which is "too good" for the UK even more, as they fear that other European countries might develop a taste for an EU exit as well, which is the very last thing they want.
 
D

Davilmar

Member
With all circus occurring in Brussels and London, I have a question. Who is going to pull the trigger on Article 50, and when? It seems like no one would be suicidal enough to do it. At the very least, it gives a faint hope that somehow the UK will be able to extricate themselves somewhat from this colossal fuck up.
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
I'm curious, does anyone actually still think Boris and Gove wanted to leave the EU?


I still cannot get over the shit show that this has rained in on us...
 
G

GamerMax73

Member
Kyari said:
Man, under their previous referendum's proposed criteria (have a parent or grandparent you can prove was born in Scotland) I am solid and fully intend to do so.
Click to expand...
Same here, but to be on the safe side I fully intend to be north of the border before indyref2 let alone Brexit.
 
G

GamerMax73

Member
Stuart444 said:
So here's a question.

How long until the prime minister that replaces Cameron gets ousted as well?

After the fallout from triggering Article 50/leaving the EU? Or maybe because he didn't trigger it? It's a thought, I just can't see whoever replaces Cameron lasting that long.
Click to expand...
I'm going for 6-8 weeks.
 
R

Ratros

Member
Davilmar said:
With all circus occurring in Brussels and London, I have a question. Who is going to pull the trigger on Article 50, and when? It seems like no one would be suicidal enough to do it. At the very least, it gives a faint hope that somehow the UK will be able to extricate themselves somewhat from this colossal fuck up.
Click to expand...

Cameron said it is going to be the next PM who wins the election in October (a election where only 1.2% of the U.K. population are allowed to vote, by the way). And I believe that's the time when Article 50 will be triggered, though contingencies may still happen.

Anyway, the divorce is inevitable I'm afraid. EU is now urging UK to move out, and many will not be happy if the result of the referendum is not respected. The best case scenario is that UK manages to stall for a few more months, signs a free trade deal with EU, China and US as soon as possible and denies Boris in the general election... But the chances are pretty slim. We need a wise, competent politician to settle things down so badly right now, unfortunately it seems to be out of supply.
 
D

darkwing

Member
Davilmar said:
With all circus occurring in Brussels and London, I have a question. Who is going to pull the trigger on Article 50, and when? It seems like no one would be suicidal enough to do it. At the very least, it gives a faint hope that somehow the UK will be able to extricate themselves somewhat from this colossal fuck up.
Click to expand...

no one has the balls to actually call A50
 
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