UberTag
Member
If none of this stuff is urgent or life-threatening or announced ahead of time, that's EXACTLY what they're doing.
There's no way to interpret it otherwise.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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There's no way to interpret it otherwise.
smokeymicpot
Beat EviLore at pool.
Bernie crowd doesn't know what they want.
whyamihere
Banned
If 10% of Trump voters voted for Clinton in 2016 in Iowa, she would've won the state.
(Also some who disapprove probably won't admit they voted for him)
Got to get this stuff in before those are bones plans go into effect. Wait, congress doesn't have to deal with those....
*find on page* mook
...
*no matches found*
*wipes brow*
"Amidst the rioting engulfing the country as the world economy collapses and civilization reverts to a hunter-gather model, Senate Majority Leader McConnell addressed reporters and claimed there was no way to prevent a breaking of the country's debt ceiling or a government shutdown due to the unforeseen need for him to spend time at home recovering from an emergency chin tuck and neck lift."
Nearly all of my friends are Bernie voters and nobody gives a shit about Tulsi Gabbard.
She's only popular among the Bernie-Trump crossover voters on Reddit who don't mind her Islamophobia and don't know about her Hindu nationalism.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Please, I beg you: keep Robby Mook 1000 MILES from that campaign.
Edit: LOL sc0la
nature boy
Member
whyamihere
Banned
nothing will happen this week on any of those things though.
Yup. No 2016 leftovers, please. Hoping they can hire some serious campaign leadership this time around.
neurosisxeno
Member
I'm sure he'll sign some bullshit executive orders on 1-3 of those things.
UberTag
Member
Isn't he on indefinite book tour duty?
Why the hell would you want a loser campaign director back anyhow?
This isn't some sports league where coaches simply play musical chairs to other posts after getting canned following a lost season. If you drop the ball in politics, that's it. You should be banished to a career sounding like a pompous ass on some cable
Signing paperwork shoved in his lap in between TV binge watching / tweeting sessions shouldn't equate to "much will be accomplished".
But in Trump's mind it'll be enough to justify him taking time off until after Labor Day.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
pretty sure Mook met the same fate as Mark Penn after 2016, exiled from Clintonworld to just grift elsewhere
it could, but it would also be a real pickup opportunity with a good candidate and favorable conditions. Arizona was the fifth closest Trump state last year, after Florida and before North Carolina.
Sadly, that's not how politics works. See: Bernie Sanders' campaign staff.
Autodidact
Banned
In Arizona, the appointee has to be of the same political party as the departing senator. Ducey would have to appoint a Republican, just as he'd have to appoint a Democrat if you reversed the party affiliation. The special election would be in November 2018, and the winner would finish the remainder of McCain's term, which expires in January 2023.
More retirees? IDK
skullmuffins
Banned
Demographics must have a lot to do with it. New Mexico is around 10% native american and 48% latino, vs 5% and 30% in AZ. Non-hispanic whites are at 38% in NM and 55% in AZ.
JesseEwiak
Member
Basically, what other people have said. But, here's a far more reaching answer I stole from someplace else.
Phoenix drives the state's politics. There's a fair amount of old money in Scottsdale and a fair amount of new money there and in Paradise Valley. (Both of these are suburbs of Phoenix). There are a couple of demographic trends driving the Phoenix area's conservatism:
1) Conservatives from Orange County, CA and other conservative parts of California see Phoenix as a reasonably-priced alternative to their current homes. Lots of people in Phoenix emigrated from California. So many, in fact, that AZ natives sometimes display "NotCal" stickers on their cars. (This is a play on NorCal, which is something I guess Northern Californians put on their cars). Land and houses are dirt cheap in Arizona compared to, say, southern California.
2) There are a whole lot of Mormons in Arizona (5-6% of the population statewide). It's an oft-repeated truism that the greatest concentration of Mormons outside of Utah is in Mesa, AZ, a Phoenix suburb. There really are a lot of Mormons in Mesa, so their political power is concentrated. Mormons (or LDS, as they often prefer) tend to be pretty conservative, politically speaking, but as with any group, there's a wide range of opinions.
3) Most people in Arizona moved there from somewhere else. Arizona has long had a reputation as a libertarian and/or conservative place, so it tends to attract people who find those things attractive.
4) Arizona has a libertarian history and a "low" tax burden. Barry Goldwater was from Arizona, for example. Fiscal conservatives tend to be really tax-averse, and so tend to move to places with low tax burdens. I put "low" in quotes because I didn't find taxes to be especially low. Property taxes were very low (and the schools reflected this, IMHO) but sales tax is effectively 9.5% in the Phoenix area and 8.5% elsewhere. Also, while local government is weak and hands-off, homeowners' associations (HOAs) tend to be pretty strong and demand annual fees.
It seemed to me that although Arizona is perceived as a low-tax, small-government paradise, taxes aren't all that low and HOAs collect revenue and act (in some ways) like an unelected strong local government.
Autodidact
Banned
True, but Trump only won Florida because of massive, unprecedented turnout in the rural panhandle. If the state had followed a "normal" pattern, Hillary would've won.
Also, how much of a chance would redistricting victim #1 Gwen Graham have at the Florida governorship? She's proved she knows how to win in Republican territory.
Arizona technically swung significantly to the democrats on the presidential level last year. Arizona has technically mostly elected republican govenors, house and senate representatives in the last few decades or so but democrats can sometimes be really competitive on the presidential and senate level depending on the election. Also arizona doesn't have a lot of the same demographics that typically make a state like florida competitive or new mexico strongly democratic now even though this is slowly changing.
https://twitter.com/g_knapp/status/886731566570905600
I know it isn't Trump but one can wish. Just so the history books can refer to this as Stupid Watergate.
Autodidact
Banned
OMG
Will they try to blame the Rosen campaign?
Will they try to blame the Rosen campaign?
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
WTF
Starting? DNC hack was a direct equivalent.
Aaron Strife
Banned
That's pretty good (for us obviously). IA-1 is still on the table and maybe IA-3 and Ernst's seat too.
If there's a special election for McCain's seat that could end up being pretty good for us. We would get two chances to pick up an AZ seat next year and that'd be an easier hat trick than beating Cruz for getting to 51. That being said I certainly don't wish anything bad on McCain and I'm pretty sure he plans on dying a senator.
Autodidact
Banned
Awkward Ann is rested and ready, peons.
Box of Kittens
Banned
It's worth noting that something like three-fourths of Hoover's 1928 voters stuck with him in 1932. These percentages sound small but are actually quite significant, not to mention what it implies about nearby states like Wisconsin.
Autodidact
Banned
Certain states such as mine (OK) hold the special election as soon as possible after a vacancy. Our governor can't even appoint an interim replacement.
Yay federalism.
The way to game that (in a hypothetical situation where the governor was a D) would be to have Ann Kirkpatrick run like hell to the courthouse and change her registration, get appointed, and then aisle-cross as soon as the first vote came up
balladofwindfishes
Member
I kind of feel bad we were making fun of is gibberish at the Comey hearing, as it sounds like it was an early warning symptom for this.
For a man his age, this is a very worrying issue for him. There's likely going to be quite a few awkward weeks for McConnell coming up unless McCain decides to suddenly resign, even then, it'll take awhile to appoint someone.
Autodidact
Banned
I think Awkward Ann should stick to House races. In fact, a hypothetical poll a few months ago showed her beating McSally in AZ-02, so the voters evidently wouldn't mind if she hopped districts.
I really want McSally to lose, partly because she won so narrowly in 2014 and partly because I get irrationally angry seeing her in Gabrielle Giffords's old spot.
I really want McSally to lose, partly because she won so narrowly in 2014 and partly because I get irrationally angry seeing her in Gabrielle Giffords's old spot.
I think BCRA is going to pass. Collins is basically saying Medicaid is the major concern for 8-10 Senators, but she did not say a single fucking thing about anything else ACA-related. That tells me they just need to work through some small Medicaid hurdles a couple more times perhaps and it will finally pass.
balladofwindfishes
Member
I don't really see how they pass it without McCain, or waiting 2-3 weeks for him to recover. The former doesn't leave them any possible path without Paul or Collins and the latter causes the CBO report to be released, basically killing the entire thing via a disastrous media cycle.
Also I think you guys are panicking a little too much about Heller.
McCain will be back. It might not pass when anticipated but it'll pass.
Heller has been way too silent and Sandoval is trying to get on both sides of the issue which speaks volumes.
benicillin
Banned
I am shocked.
BlastProcessing
Member
The dude had a 5mm clot in his head. You don't fuck around with those.
Losing is experience just like winning is. I don't think there is a single political operative worth their salt who hasn't lost a heartbreaker. It's what they take from those losses that separates the good from the bad. Mook is young and we don't really know how he moves on from here, but I wouldn't be surprised if in a few elections from now, he gets some Senator a longshot win.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Or... You do nothing for 20 years, then run a senator's campaign until a prostitute tries to extort you, do nothing again for 6 years, do Fox stuff for 5, get fired for opioid addiction, come back briefly and then get fired for racist remarks because you can't handle a black guy fixing your computer.
Sorry bob lol maybe the next life will be more forgiving
Who's bob?
Edit Oh mook is bob? I thought this was a real persons story you were recounting.
Double edit: Ooooooh.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
No, I mean Bob Where's the Beef Beckel.Who's bob?
Edit Oh mook is bob? I thought this was a real persons story you were recounting.
balladofwindfishes
Member
I was on vacation for five days and only half paying attention to the news, and even I know Sandoval is still very much against the bill.
McCain may or may not be back. What he has is very serious for a man his age. It could be a month or more for him to be back, depending on how his surgeries go. They don't have time. They were riding on a flurry of "PASS NOOWWOWOOWOWOWOW" that got the House in trouble last time and McCain stopped that cold. Now the bill sits in limbo for weeks as the CBO report comes out, Senators get called, and the GOP gets a taste of life moving on. They're growing sick of this entire thing, and the solution won't be "pass anything!!!" it'll be "just give it up Mitch, it's over"
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Omfgggggg where has this picture BEEN all my life!
Poor Bob!
Poor Bob!
Spoiled Milk
Banned
I contribute tons of political trivia (and meme material). I just don't get as much engagement from it because everyone has me on ignore already.
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