• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Canadian PoliGAF - 42nd Parliament: Sunny Ways in Trudeaupia

Status
Not open for further replies.

SRG01

Member
Depends completely on who ends up leading them and the policies that they UCP decides to focus on. If the leader and the UCP's policies are not progressive enough they will definitely bleed red tory votes to the AB NDP and AB Party.Their path to victory is appealing to progressive voters. If they fail to appeal to progressive Albertans they will lose the 2019 provincial election possibly in another landslide. Right now they aren't really saying anything or doing anything that makes me think they are guaranteed to win under the UCP banner in 2019.

Danielle smith wrote a piece on global related to the annoucement of the UCP I agree with.
http://globalnews.ca/news/3462378/danielle-smith-conservative-merger-no-guarantee-of-victory/

Every election, even during the later years of Klein, was won by appealing to the centrist voters. Klein himself had to massively increase spending during his final term because he had to show 'dividends' from the cutbacks in the mid-90s.

Stelmach and Redford both won on centrist agendas. Whether they governed from that centrist agenda is another question altogether, of course.
 
Wynne is all aboard $21B high speed rail project - The provincial government has committed $15 million for a ”comprehensive environmental assessment" for high-speed rail between Toronto and Windsor.

They need to stop playing with my emotions. I want High Speed Rail so bad, yet they keep on throwing assessment after assessment with no intention to actually build one of them. I hope this one is different but it's a little insane how often our politicians keep on playing to the people who want to see it happen knowing full well they aren't going to spend the money to actually get it built.

That said assuming this time is different, why are they starting with the Windsor-Toronto leg? I'm from/have family from Windsor and while I would definitely take advantage of this thing every opportunity I could get, this half of the province barely has a million people (excluding Toronto). Why would you focus on that when you can get the Toronto-EasternGTA-Kingston-Ottawa-Montreal route which has several million people. If its just for votes I don't see why they are bothering, its NDP Land near the cities and Conservative Land once you hit the rural boundaries.
 

Thanks -- I think they took the details out of your link and moved them here.

Have they said why the required votes in favour are so different for the two parties' memberships? Is it just in their respective constitutions that merging/winding down requires 75% of Wild Rose members and only 50% of PC members?

I'm really curious as to how this will all shake out. I know that Alberta has a reputation as a pretty conservative province, but as you note, Redford and Notley both won off a fairly progressive coalition. It'd be neat if the 2011 election was secretly a massive electoral realignment that no one fully noticed at the time because it just looked like yet another PC win.

And even if the UCP wins, the Canadian political history nerd in me will appreciate that they're keeping alive Alberta's tradition of parties never getting voted back into power once they get voted out.

If it were under another administration, I wouldn't disagree that there are aspects that need to be updated (even Chretien has said "it's an old agreement") and that Canada should create a new agreement between its North American trading partners to reflect that. The problem is that those areas aren't what Trump seems to be intent on renegotiating, since his administration has continually railed on NAFTA in relation to sectors where job loss is related to automation rather than "disastrous deals" i.e. the auto industry, or on areas where Canada will not budge i.e. milk imports. Also, given how Mexico has been left out all of these talks thus far, coupled with the infamous plan to pull out of NAFTA entirely via an executive order, all this talk strikes as Trump trying to aggressively reduce the current trade deficit the U.S. has with Mexico without any recognition for how his actions will hurt businesses within all three countries. Renegotiating NAFTA in a manner that is beneficial for all parties may take as long, if not, longer depending on Mexico's upcoming elections as well as our own, but Trump's administration doesn't seem to understand that given how rushed their executive orders and Affordable Care Act repeal have been, not to mention the lack of care with regards to his administration's appointments (see also: the lumber tariff). Frankly, it's understandable why the White House had to call in Trudeau to get Trump to stick with NAFTA: This administration is too incompetent to negotiate anything with anyone.

I don't disagree that Trump has made a mess of everything he's touched, but I feel like this is one area he doesn't have as much leeway. Canada is the #1 trading partner for around 35 states, and quite a few of those are Republican-led. On top of that, a lot of GOP-owned districts in the House include border towns that rely on trade with Canada and Mexico. I think that if it looks like he's​ going to screw things up, the uproar within his own party will stop him from doing anything too crazy.

Though, obviously, the counter-argument is that he doesn't care what the GOP establishment says, so he'll go ahead and do whatever he wants. But I think -- I hope -- that rational, economically sound-driven thinking prevails here.
 

bremon

Member
People are acting like it's a done deal but I'm not incredibly confident the UCP will pass it's referendums. Maybe I'm naive. Either way I hope they hemorrhage support from moderates and are left to the far right fringe. They can come back from their banishment when their "progressive" ways of thinking don't revolve around pollution and outing kids to their families.
 

Mr.Mike

Member
Wynne is all aboard $21B high speed rail project - The provincial government has committed $15 million for a ”comprehensive environmental assessment" for high-speed rail between Toronto and Windsor.

They need to stop playing with my emotions. I want High Speed Rail so bad, yet they keep on throwing assessment after assessment with no intention to actually build one of them. I hope this one is different but it's a little insane how often our politicians keep on playing to the people who want to see it happen knowing full well they aren't going to spend the money to actually get it built.

That said assuming this time is different, why are they starting with the Windsor-Toronto leg? I'm from/have family from Windsor and while I would definitely take advantage of this thing every opportunity I could get, this half of the province barely has a million people (excluding Toronto). Why would you focus on that when you can get the Toronto-EasternGTA-Kingston-Ottawa-Montreal route which has several million people. If its just for votes I don't see why they are bothering, its NDP Land near the cities and Conservative Land once you hit the rural boundaries.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10cXpd8haQQ

I assume if it actually happens they would add the little bit more to connect the line to Detroit somehow. From there you could get to Chicago pretty fast too, so you'd have a Chicago to Toronto thing.

But also Windsor to Toronto is shorter than Toronto to Montreal and there are more Ontarians in that corridor.
 
Wynne is all aboard $21B high speed rail project - The provincial government has committed $15 million for a “comprehensive environmental assessment” for high-speed rail between Toronto and Windsor.

They need to stop playing with my emotions. I want High Speed Rail so bad, yet they keep on throwing assessment after assessment with no intention to actually build one of them. I hope this one is different but it's a little insane how often our politicians keep on playing to the people who want to see it happen knowing full well they aren't going to spend the money to actually get it built.

That said assuming this time is different, why are they starting with the Windsor-Toronto leg? I'm from/have family from Windsor and while I would definitely take advantage of this thing every opportunity I could get, this half of the province barely has a million people (excluding Toronto). Why would you focus on that when you can get the Toronto-EasternGTA-Kingston-Ottawa-Montreal route which has several million people. If its just for votes I don't see why they are bothering, its NDP Land near the cities and Conservative Land once you hit the rural boundaries.

This will be another expensive disaster like the Pearson-Union line and the Scarborough subway, and will take away money from more necessary infrastructure. Unless 50%+ of the funding comes the private sector I don't think this should be built.
 

mo60

Member
People are acting like it's a done deal but I'm not incredibly confident the UCP will pass it's referendums. Maybe I'm naive. Either way I hope they hemorrhage support from moderates and are left to the far right fringe. They can come back from their banishment when their "progressive" ways of thinking don't revolve around pollution and outing kids to their families.

It's far from over. Notley knows that and I don't think she's that scared.No one knows who will be leading the UCP if it is formed eventually. I think conservatives hatred of the NDP and them wanting to get rid of the AB NDP may backfire hard if they are not careful. I don't thing swing voters will be voting for the UCP just because they are not the AB NDP.I think now is the time for the AB NDP to work on a positive message for 2019 to counter whatever anti-NDP message the UCP comes up with.They could even recycle parts of their 2015 campaign message if possible.Also, both Jean and Kenney are a liability to the UCP's chances of forming government in Alberta in 2019 at this point but I don't think there fanbase recognizes that.
 

gabbo

Member
It's far from over. Notley knows that and I don't think she's that scared.No one knows who will be leading the UCP if it is formed eventually. I think conservatives hatred of the NDP and them wanting to get rid of the AB NDP may backfire hard if they are not careful. I don't thing swing voters will be voting for the UCP just because they are not the AB NDP.I think now is the time for the AB NDP to work on a positive message for 2019 to counter whatever anti-NDP message the UCP comes up with.They could even recycle parts of their 2015 campaign message if possible.Also, both Jean and Kenney are a liability to the UCP's chances of forming government in Alberta in 2019 at this point but I don't think there fanbase recognizes that.

I was always under the impression (and biased in this regard as I disliked Kenney as an MP) he was rather disliked out West, like he'd traded Alberta for Ontario/The East
 
When the top three most likely candidates to lead the party are Brian Jean, Jason Kenney, or Derek Fildebrandt, I could very easily see the party having a likeability problem.

I mean, I'm not their target audience, but all the same: they all suck.
 

mo60

Member
When the top three most likely candidates to lead the party are Brian Jean, Jason Kenney, or Derek Fildebrandt, I could very easily see the party having a likeability problem.

I mean, I'm not their target audience, but all the same: they all suck.

One good thing about derek is like Jean Albertans would not think he parachuted into alberta provincial politics for opportunistic reasons.but he's still really awful. I think the UCP needs someone not connected to federal politics to win the next election. Kenney connection to federal politics is strong still while Jean's is a bit weaker but may still be a liability.Derek is unlikable and I don't think most progressives would vote for him if he lead the UCP.
 

AoM

Member
Yeah, it takes a super narrow reading of the bill to come to that conclusion, and there are multiple provisions in the bill that basically say any criminal violations need to meet the test of being motivated hate propaganda - so the idea that accidentally using the wrong pronoun might somehow result in prosecution is almost offensively absurd (no, wait, check that, definitely offensively absurd).

Fuck that U of T professor, too. <-- protected speech

Hate peddlers gonna hate peddle. Good news is the last polls I can find on C-16 indicate support of over 70% of Canadians for both the anti-discrimination and anti-hate crime amendments, which is a little heartening.

Since it wasn't posted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnIAAkSNtqo

Compelled speech, no matter the caveats that it will only be applied if certain tests are met, always rubs me the wrong way.
 

Pedrito

Member
Front National fanboy's sign for by-election in Gouin:

DAOzd4wXYAA9B8a.jpg:large

"Choose your Québec. Canadian multiculturalism...No thanks!"
 
Front National fanboy's sign for by-election in Gouin:



"Choose you Québec. Canadian multiculturalism...No thanks!"

So that guy is running for the PI who has a shady history
curious to see if the PQ's decision not to run a candidate against GND will affect that crappy Parti Indepentist's numbers to rise.

an important note: that fringe party only received 126 votes Province wide in 2014; going from 0.03% in 2012 down to 0.00% in 2014, too low of a percentage to register as 0.01%
 

Pedrito

Member
Parti Independatiste seems to be made up of crazy PQ rejects.

That guy is a discount Mathieu Bock-Côté. Same insufferable tone and big words, but have to write for Huffington Post Québec.
 
Parti Independatiste seems to be made up of crazy PQ rejects.

That guy is a discount Mathieu Bock-Côté. Same insufferable tone and big words, but have to write for Huffington Post Québec.

Huffington Post Québec is a coalation of everything wrong in Nationlist Quebec just for the sake of opposing the Quebec Liberals.
a vile sewer full of fringe nutters ranging from the anarcho-left, the insufrable ultra-seperatists and the Alt-Right nationlist racists scumlords.

I hate HuffPo
 

CazTGG

Member
Front National fanboy's sign for by-election in Gouin:



"Choose your Québec. Canadian multiculturalism...No thanks!"

Canada: Civil War.

This is unbelievably gross and I hope Marine Le Pen steps on a Lego brick in the middle of the night for all the surprising influence she's had on Quebec.
 
I need your help, my Canadian friends.

Do you know of any portable computer that offers the multilingual Canadian keyboard (sometimes called the French Canadian keyboard)? I only know of the macbooks from Apple (which is what I am currently using), but I do not want to buy another macbook, as they are quite expensive.

I'm talking about this keyboard layout:

Canadien_multilingue.png


Notice the "ù" next to the "z" and the placement of "ç, è, à, é". This keyboard layout is supposedly standard in the federal government as well as the québec government.

My macbook is dying and I need a new computer. I really want this keyboard. I cannot stand anything else.
 

Apathy

Member
I need your help, my Canadian friends.

Do you know of any portable computer that offers the multilingual Canadian keyboard (sometimes called the French Canadian keyboard)? I only know of the macbooks from Apple (which is what I am currently using), but I do not want to buy another macbook, as they are quite expensive.

I'm talking about this keyboard layout:

Canadien_multilingue.png


Notice the "ù" next to the "z" and the placement of "ç, è, à, é". This keyboard layout is supposedly standard in the federal government as well as the québec government.

My macbook is dying and I need a new computer. I really want this keyboard. I cannot stand anything else.

When buying a new laptop online you sometimes get an option for either English or either French keyboard. Are those French keyboards not what you're looking for? I know it's hard to tell online because they don't specify the layout but a lot of places have online chat with CS or you can try and email them.
 
When buying a new laptop online you sometimes get an option for either English or either French keyboard. Are those French keyboards not what you're looking for? I know it's hard to tell online because they don't specify the layout but a lot of places have online chat with CS or you can try and email them.

I checked Lenovo. The French keyboard they offer isn't that (there was a code next to the name, so I could check with google). It's basically a US keyboard with an added "é", and if I want to put an accent on either "a" or "e", I need to tap on two keys.

I remember doing substantial research some years ago when I was looking at laptops for fun, and I didn't find anything. It's frustrating. :/
 
two Quebec polls show a trend of the right-leaning CAQ subplanting the PQ as the alternative to the Quebec Liberals.

Mainstreet puts CAQ on the lead followed by Liberals, while Léger maintains Liberals incumbently at 1st place with the CAQ moves up to 2nd place.

PQ sinks to 3rd place in both polls losing official opposition party status, bleeding right to the CAQ, while bleeding left to QS who will soon have a young goldenboy join them in a bi-election:

Hillariously, the Quebec Liberals are still able to maintain stable support despite over a decade of incumbent fatigue (minus the 18 months Marois PQ minority governmnet)

Mainstreet poll:
http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/public-polls/
CAQ 32%
PLQ 31%
PQ 24%
QS 14%

Léger poll:
http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/q...vorable-a-la-caq-et-aux-alliances-electorales

17-05_sondage.svg


Léger asked a two question poll; one with PQ in covergence with QS.

IMO, I am highly skeptical of any convergence happening between the two parties for two reasons:
a) the identiy nationalist faction in the PQ will never accept merging with Far-Left QS
2) QS will feel more empowered to make more demands than the PQ is willing to concede; they will never be in agreement
 

imBask

Banned
two Quebec polls show a trend of the right-leaning CAQ subplanting the PQ as the alternative to the Quebec Liberals.

Mainstreet puts CAQ on the lead followed by Liberals, while Léger maintains Liberals incumbently at 1st place with the CAQ taking 2nd place.

PQ sinks to 3rd place in both polls losing official opposition party status, bleeding right to the CAQ, while bleeding left to QS who will soon have a young goldenboy join them in a bi-election:

Hillariously, the Quebec Liberals are still able to maintain stable support despite over a decade of incumbent fatigue (minus the 18 months Marois PQ minority governmnet)

Mainstreet poll:
http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/public-polls/
CAQ 32%
PLQ 31%
PQ 24%
QS 14%

Léger poll:
http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/q...vorable-a-la-caq-et-aux-alliances-electorales

17-05_sondage.svg


Léger asked a two question poll; one with PQ in covergence with QS.

IMO, I am highly skeptical of any convergence happening between the two parties for two reasons:
a) the identiy nationalist faction in the PQ will never accept merging with Far-Left QS
2) QS will feel more empowered to make more demands than the PQ is willing to concede; they will never be in agreement

I'm wondering how they did that poll because it seems to assume that everyone who votes QS would vote for the alliance...

i'd vote for Nadeau-Dubois any day of the week, but if they actually do an alliance I would HIGHLY reconsider my vote and i'm thinking most of QS voters would do the same. PQ are really far from what QS represents and i'd feel like they're just engulfing QS to shut them up
 
I'm wondering how they did that poll because it seems to assume that everyone who votes QS would vote for the alliance...

i'd vote for Nadeau-Dubois any day of the week, but if they actually do an alliance I would HIGHLY reconsider my vote and i'm thinking most of QS voters would do the same. PQ are really far from what QS represents and i'd feel like they're just engulfing QS to shut them up

I doubt that any alliance is remotely possible between the two.
QS doesn't want to compromise on their anarcho-syndcalist socialism;
the PQ doesn't want to budge on their ethno-nationalist identity stances nor accomdate a weeker party's demands.

J-F Lisée is skating on thin ice
 

Pedrito

Member
Yeah, there's no way the 39% is right. The ultra-nationalists/anti-immigration pequistes hate QS even more than they hate the Liberals. And a chunk of QS voters are probably soft federalist left wingers who vote for them because they have no chance of winning.
 
Yeah, there's no way the 39% is right. The ultra-nationalists/anti-immigration pequistes hate QS even more than they hate the Liberals. And a chunk of QS voters are probably soft federalist left wingers who vote for them because they have no chance of winning.
I agree.

identity PQ voters would defect to the CAQ who are nationalist themselves too on identity
 

Vamphuntr

Member
PQ hates QS because they blame them for their successive losses. Before QS existed you had to vote PQ anyway because it was still more to the left than the PLQ or ADQ. Since they've arrived they tend to get 5-10% of the vote that used to go PQ so their insane base label them as traitors. Pretty hilarious how Vigile had Marine Le Pen as their savior and GND as the Antichrist no wonder you get racist ads like the above.

If the poll posted above is an actual on going trend, Jean-François Lisée will be begging GND for help and not the opposite. I don't see much of a coalition outside of not presenting candidates in ridings where one party could win if the other one is out of the picture. PQ is back to their racist antics while QS is human rights and multiculturalism all the way.
 
that's such a dark, cynical way of seeing things, I can't agree
Federalist NDP voters who are clearly Left wing do vote for QS for being Left first despite the party being souverenist 2nd.

Not all Left Wing people are seperatists; the hardcoreness of the PQ turns them off
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
Wow, so British democracy really is a sham. I never thought you could do a campaign where you just refused to debate any of the leaders, but it looks like it's a winning strategy. Harper really should have just pulled out of all the debates in the last election. lol
 

mo60

Member
Wow, so British democracy really is a sham. I never thought you could do a campaign where you just refused to debate any of the leaders, but it looks like it's a winning strategy. Harper really should have just pulled out of all the debates in the last election. lol

I wouldn't say it's a winning strategy when their main opponent is not shooting themselves in the foot constantly anymore and actually starting to do better in polls.At this point it looks like the margin of victory for the UK conservatives will be somewhere between 10 and 15 percent instead of 20%+ on june 8th.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
I wouldn't say it's a winning strategy when their main opponent is not shooting themselves in the foot constantly anymore and actually starting to do better in polls.At this point it looks like the margin of victory for the UK conservatives will be somewhere between 10 and 15 percent instead of 20%+ on june 8th.
Haha, true. But I mean, Corbyn skipped them too, so he must think it's not worth doing either.
 

maharg

idspispopd
Not going to lie, I think we're maybe on the verge of debates as political theatre dying off. They're already losing a lot of the force they once had and negotiations are getting more strained as bipartisan structures collapse everywhere (even, arguably, in the US where there are clearly emerging factions in both the Democrats and the Republicans).

Not sure what'll replace them, but .. I could see them being a joke or not really around in 10 years.
 
I could see the Conservatives refusing to debate next time they get into power. Their base is solid pretty much no matter what, and I think there's an argument to be made that the debates last time around -- especially the first one -- helped solidify Trudeau as the best option for beating Harper. If the Conservatives had refused to take part, I think the election may have gone very differently. Debates really only help opposition parties, so nixing them altogether seems like a pretty Harper/CPC-esque thing to do.


two Quebec polls show a trend of the right-leaning CAQ subplanting the PQ as the alternative to the Quebec Liberals.

Mainstreet puts CAQ on the lead followed by Liberals, while Léger maintains Liberals incumbently at 1st place with the CAQ moves up to 2nd place.

Leger is the gold standard in Quebec, aren't they? Not to take anything away from Mainstreet, but I feel like they're much more knowledgeable about Alberta and federal politics.

Yeah, there's no way the 39% is right. The ultra-nationalists/anti-immigration pequistes hate QS even more than they hate the Liberals. And a chunk of QS voters are probably soft federalist left wingers who vote for them because they have no chance of winning.

Forgive my lack of knowledge about Quebec politics, but I thought that QS were basically NDPers in all but name -- so left-wing soft separatists/nationalists? Again, I'm not speaking from anything but a very superficial, outside understanding, but I remember that in the last election, they were distinctly *not* Federalists.

And on that note, I'll ask more broadly: are the Liberals the only 100% federalist party? Again, my knowledge is limited to where things stood in the last election, but CAQ are basically ADQ-style right-wingers who are vaguely sovereigntist but don't want to talk about it, right? And the Greens (such as they are) are roughly the same as QS?
 
I could see the Conservatives refusing to debate next time they get into power. Their base is solid pretty much no matter what, and I think there's an argument to be made that the debates last time around -- especially the first one -- helped solidify Trudeau as the best option for beating Harper. If the Conservatives had refused to take part, I think the election may have gone very differently. Debates really only help opposition parties, so nixing them altogether seems like a pretty Harper/CPC-esque thing to do.




Leger is the gold standard in Quebec, aren't they? Not to take anything away from Mainstreet, but I feel like they're much more knowledgeable about Alberta and federal politics.


Forgive my lack of knowledge about Quebec politics, but I thought that QS were basically NDPers in all but name -- so left-wing soft separatists/nationalists? Again, I'm not speaking from anything but a very superficial, outside understanding, but I remember that in the last election, they were distinctly *not* Federalists.

And on that note, I'll ask more broadly: are the Liberals the only 100% federalist party? Again, my knowledge is limited to where things stood in the last election, but CAQ are basically ADQ-style right-wingers who are vaguely sovereigntist but don't want to talk about it, right? And the Greens (such as they are) are roughly the same as QS?
technically the Liberals are the only true 100% Federalist Party in Provincial Quebec.

QS is way farther Left than any type of NDP;
They are Hard-Left, super pro-union, pro-taxes like big big taxes and not shy about it.
And they are pro-Multiculraism* while promoting French language.
Then Quebec souverenty comes after.

now back to schism of non-compatibility between QS and the PQ: multiculturalism.
the PQ does not believe in multiciulism; the PQ only believes in ONE Quebec identiy.

QS does well with Left leaning non-francophones while the PQ struggles to attract any traction with any minority.
 

NetMapel

Guilty White Male Mods Gave Me This Tag
Code:
[img]http://images.dailyhive.com/20170520150917/unnamed1-1024x683.jpg[/img]

A little something for gutter trash
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom