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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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Kevinroc

Member
Murkowski is probably going to hang on to her Senate seat with her fighting to keep ACA in place for Alaska. Heller is pretty much bye-ller. Dude put all his stock on the rabid teaparty voter. Is Collins up for re-election next year?

Collins is not up for re-election to the Senate next year. But she might be running for Governor of Maine, which is a 2018 election.
 

Blader

Member
Can't figure out why Murkowski and Sullivan would have different takes on Graham-Cassidy and other healthcare bills that would negatively impact Alaska. I guess Sullivan just sucks.
 
I think you're severely overestimating the current Republican coalition's ability to competently run the government. If they can, then let them prove it. Otherwise, you agreed to an extension based on a promise from DONALD TRUMP that he will work with you on DACA and your Republican colleagues immediately shifted to a new HC effort, like in March.

You're conflating two totally different events. They got the 3 month debt ceiling extension and CR in exchange for absolutely nothing. They showed up, said that they want 3 over 18, and that was that.

Debt ceiling was always going to happen, because nobody on the Dem side is crazy enough to play chicken with the total collapse of the global economy. Tying the CR to Harvey made that a lock. The question was entirely about duration.

The DACA stuff happened later.

Can't figure out why Murkowski and Sullivan would have different takes on Graham-Cassidy and other healthcare bills that would negatively impact Alaska. I guess Sullivan just sucks.

Sullivan didn't win a write-in campaign after losing a primary. Murkowski is untouchable and she knows it.
 

Vixdean

Member
DKLjJF5VoAASlwW.jpg


Cool, cool.

The best part about this is how he's referring to Republicans in the third person, as if he isn't one.
 

Crocodile

Member
Except we'll have the entire lobbying arm of the insurance industry to deal with and that's a lot of money to fight against. Using the ACA with some form of public option would have at least allowed us to weaken them significantly before this fight.

I am more than fine with improving the ACA and adding a public option as the next thing the Dems should do. I'm just saying that if G-C passes, I do legit think it makes Single-Payer easier to pass. What is the incentive for the Dems to compromise if the GOP is just going to shit on their face and all of America by doing this?
 

Armaros

Member
Can't figure out why Murkowski and Sullivan would have different takes on Graham-Cassidy and other healthcare bills that would negatively impact Alaska. I guess Sullivan just sucks.

Murkowski did the almost impossible and won as a write-in candidate while having to teach her supporters to spell Murkowski, and yes she actually had campaign drives to teach people how to spell her name for the ballot.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I am more than fine with improving the ACA and adding a public option as the next thing the Dems should do. I'm just saying that if G-C passes, I do legit think it makes Single-Payer easier to pass. What is the incentive for the Dems to compromise if the GOP is just going to shit on their face and all of America by doing this?

They'll still need to get past the insurance lobby, bringing them on board was how Obama managed to get the ACA done in the first place. If we don't then who is to say they won't just pour money into GOP candidates and get it repealed the first chance they get? Even Bernie's plan is a 4-6 year roll out at the earliest, plenty of time to kill it before it takes effect. No matter what we do it'll require beating the insurance lobby and they won't fight as hard against something like a medicare buy-in or public option, compared to straight single payer (which would be the end of their industry).
 

kirblar

Member
Murkowski did the almost impossible and won as a write-in candidate while having to teach her supporters to spell Murkowski, and yes she actually had campaign drives to teach people how to spell her name for the ballot.
If the Senate flips in 2018 or 2020 I think she may just go I in order to attempt to maintain influence - the GOP needs her more than she needs them at this point.
 

Blader

Member
Oh I know about the write-in campaign and that stuff. But like, if one Republican senator looks at a bill and says this is gonna kill her state, how does that other Republican senator look at the same bill and think, actually this is gonna be just fine for our constituents?

I know there is probably no non-cynical answer to that. It's just crazy to me that when your governor and fellow Republican senator are not supporting a bill because of the harm it will inflict on your home state that you are still perfectly fine with voting for that bill.
 
Oh I know about the write-in campaign and that stuff. But like, if one Republican senator looks at a bill and says this is gonna kill her state, how does that other Republican senator look at the same bill and think, actually this is gonna be just fine for our constituents?

I know there is probably no non-cynical answer to that. It's just crazy to me that when your governor and fellow Republican senator are not supporting a bill because of the harm it will inflict on your home state that you are still perfectly fine with voting for that bill.

If Sullivan gets primaried, he's just gone. So he has to play to the crazies. Murkowski doesn't have to.
 

Hyoukokun

Member
Murkowski is probably going to hang on to her Senate seat with her fighting to keep ACA in place for Alaska. Heller is pretty much bye-ller. Dude put all his stock on the rabid teaparty voter. Is Collins up for re-election next year?
I thought I'd heard rumblings that Collins might try to run for Governor. She'd have a good shot at it, but might need to find a way to distance herself from LePage, who is... not well-loved.
 

kirblar

Member
Andy Slavitt‏Verified account @ASlavitt 26m

BREAKING: In the last hour, Chris Christie, AHIP (Insurers), Blue Cross, Fed of Amer Hospitals announced Graham-Cassidy opposition.
Christie's name being in there is so random but it makes sense (as a blue state.)
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Sorry if posted earlier:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/20/...eakingNews&contentID=65851468&pgtype=Homepage

Mueller Seeks White House Documents Related to Trump's Actions as President

Going after stuff related to the WH meeting with the Russians, Flynn's firing

Talk about applying pressure.

Christie's name being in there is so random but it makes sense (as a blue state.)

Yea, Jersey would be screwed pretty hard by this. The NJ side of RBNY twitter has not been happy about this bill at all.
 

kirblar

Member
DailyKos just put up a median seat analysis. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...O9EuYKk5XJB9qtjRz8DfcY63M/edit#gid=1639480230

Michigan seems like they're screwed until they can get the seats un-gerrymandered:
@DKElections

In MI, for instance, Trump won the state by 0.2%, but he carried the middle-most seat in the state Senate by 10% & in the state House by 9%
VA's median districts in both its House and Senate are actually seats that went to Clinton. Which means the big structural issue with flipping the VA House/Senate is likely now the off-off-year elections.
 

Blader

Member
I'm not convinced the House won't pass Graham-Cassidy, but the fact that this bill so predominantly harms blue states is going to put a ton of pressure on New York, New Jersey, and California Republicans who voted for AHCA.
 
Still think the DNC should use it's email list to send out something like the top 40+ most flippable seats or the ones they are targeting. Help people who want to be active focus in on a house seat that is perhaps somewhere near them if their district doesn't have a chance of flipping.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Still think the DNC should use it's email list to send out something like the top 40+ most flippable seats or the ones they are targeting. Help people who want to be active focus in on a house seat that is perhaps somewhere near them if their district doesn't have a chance of flipping.

They should do it as soon as they have candidates or the primaries start. You don't want to put a ton of cash towards a seat with a shitty candidate.
 

Kusagari

Member
Murkowski did the almost impossible and won as a write-in candidate while having to teach her supporters to spell Murkowski, and yes she actually had campaign drives to teach people how to spell her name for the ballot.

Her coalition is also a mixture of moderate Republicans, Independents and some Democrats.

It's far more vital to her that she keep her image as a moderate than going hard right; because she'll likely never be able to win those people over anyway at this point.
 

Diablos

Member
I'm not convinced the House won't pass Graham-Cassidy, but the fact that this bill so predominantly harms blue states is going to put a ton of pressure on New York, New Jersey, and California Republicans who voted for AHCA.
But Paul Ryan says he will pass it so...

These House members need their KOCH money. Say it out loud... fucked up.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
RBNY? I take it you're not talking about the Red Bulls of NY.

I am actually. A lot of the Jersey fans I follow have been bitching about the repeal pretty hard, but RBNY twitter does seem to be a fairly liberal lot. That said everything quieted down today for the final.
 

Mac_Lane

Member
But Paul Ryan says he will pass it so...

These House members need their KOCH money. Say it out loud... fucked up.

They only passed the AHCA by 2 votes back then. They might get more votes from the crazy guys from the Freedom Caucus but they risk losing a ton of reps from Cali/New York and other states that would lose a lot of money under Graham-Cassidy.
 

Diablos

Member
They only passed the AHCA by 2 votes back then. They might get more votes from the crazy guys from the Freedom Caucus but they risk losing a ton of reps from Cali/New York and other states that would lose a lot of money under Graham-Cassidy.
BUT PAUL RYAN

Seriously though “If you pass it, I pass it” sounds like he has the numbers
 

Kevinroc

Member
Obama defends health care law, as Washington looks to "undo" progress

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/obama-delivers-keynote-at-gates-foundation-event/

I just want to quote everything the article quoted Obama saying. But I'll just focus on this, which sums everything up pretty well.

"It may be frustrating that we have to mobilize every couple months to keep our leaders from inflicting real human suffering on their constituents," Obama continued. "But typically, that's how progress is won."
 

Zolo

Member
The best part about this is how he's referring to Republicans in the third person, as if he isn't one.

Guess that's somewhere in the marketing book on how to avoid responsibility. Sorta how Fox rails against the media despite being one of the most watched TV news networks.
 
"It may be frustrating that we have to mobilize every couple months to keep our leaders from inflicting real human suffering on their constituents," Obama continued. "But typically, that's how progress is won."
that's not how progress is won in normal countries and the US before 1994
 
I think Republican voters will have to feel pain by their healthcare being lost before positive progress is made. They haven't felt the negative impact of their voting decision yet in a meaningful way. Of course Republicans will still try to find a way to put the blame on Democrats and Fox news will feed the propaganda to their viewers.
 
I think Republican voters will have to feel pain by their healthcare being lost before positive progress is made. They haven't felt the negative impact of their voting decision yet in a meaningful way. Of course Republicans will still try to find a way to put the blame on Democrats and Fox news will feed the propaganda to their viewers.

yes.

and its why your thesis is wrong and bad.

giving them free college, healthcare, etc will better loosen their grip on the GOP.

(one should look at how scared republicans are of bernie's plan to see this, they know what it would do)
 
I mean, do you actually think this or would anything he have said had elicited this response.
Obama: "All 52 Republicans have called me and said they each swore a contract in blood that they won't repeal ACA, also Trump and Pence stepped down but named Biden as VP right before, so he's president now and will veto any repeal bill if they go back on their word"

Diablos: "Obamacare is doomed"
 

kirblar

Member
yes.

and its why your thesis is wrong and bad.

giving them free college, healthcare, etc will better loosen their grip on the GOP.

(one should look at how scared republicans are of bernie's plan to see this, they know what it would do)
No, it won't. You should do it, but you should expect massive electoral backlash because of the pendulum nature of the US's electoral politics.

We thought Obama would be different, but it turns out, the trends that led to the 2010 backlash have only accelerated and escalated.
 
No, it won't. You should do it, but you should expect massive electoral backlash because of the pendulum nature of the US's electoral politics.

We thought Obama would be different, but it turns out, the trends that led to the 2010 backlash have only accelerated and escalated.

Yes it will.
 

Diablos

Member
Obama: "All 52 Republicans have called me and said they each swore a contract in blood that they won't repeal ACA, also Trump and Pence stepped down but named Biden as VP right before, so he's president now and will veto any repeal bill if they go back on their word"

Diablos: "Obamacare is doomed"
Yeah like I’d really say that in such a scenario.
 
How long does a policy need to exist before it becomes untouchable? SS and such have come under attack and those attacks resulted in electoral losses. I remember similar sentiment surrounding Obamacare after his second election and the courts upheld the ACA. I suppose it hasn't been repealed yet, but this feels a lot closer than SS privatization under the Bush years for example. How long does the ACA need to exist before morons protest with sign proclaiming "keep government out of my Obamacare"

Why would anyone be sure that single payer, free college etc won't get immediately dismantled? How long would those things need to exist before they're become enshrined as gospel.
 

pigeon

Banned
How long does a policy need to exist before it becomes untouchable? SS and such have come under attack and those attacks resulted in electoral losses. I remember similar sentiment surrounding Obamacare after his second election and the courts upheld the ACA. I suppose it hasn't been repealed yet, but this feels a lot closer than SS privatization under the Bush years for example. How long does the ACA need to exist before morons protest with sign proclaiming "keep government out of my Obamacare"

The huge problem with Obamacare politically is that it puts people in Medicaid and private insurance, often using state-run programs to do so. Those people don't know they're in Obamacare.
 
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