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Pachter - Next gen is last gen; projected console sales figures; Xbox to win next gen
- Thread starter Wario64
- Start date
I guess if you put it that way, it makes sense, but there is only a finite amount that console manufacturers will manufacture. There is also a finite amount of time that retailers will keep them, and it seems unlikely that they will keep them so long for it to reach these numbers.
VICTORsaurio
Member
So, next gen games will be $60 confirmed?
AZ Greg
Member
Do the math guys!
What is your reasoning behind this prediction?
Hardly seems crazy, numbers-wise. And "innovation" is vague. Note he's also not saying that Durango won't have just as much; he's not referencing the speed here. All that RAM definitely allows for developers to do a lot more stuff, and Durango will almost certainly also have a lot. Plus presumably a lot of that RAM enables the kinds of social features Sony was talking about.
I have a hard time seeing why no one would come out with something even more powerful sometime in the next ten years, though. Is he predicting that game sales will dry up over the next decade and no one will bother?
I have a hard time seeing why no one would come out with something even more powerful sometime in the next ten years, though. Is he predicting that game sales will dry up over the next decade and no one will bother?
Projectjustice
Banned
So Wii U is next gen!
Other people have said this gen will be the last as well... I don't agree with those saying that.
I predict in about 7 years, everyone (consumers (GAF), retailers, developers, etc) will be complaining about how this generation has dragged on for too long and there will be rumours about the PS5/NextNext Box and the cycle will repeat itself.
I predict in about 7 years, everyone (consumers (GAF), retailers, developers, etc) will be complaining about how this generation has dragged on for too long and there will be rumours about the PS5/NextNext Box and the cycle will repeat itself.
How are they going to change the WiiU at this point? He is talking about the WiiU.
I don't see why growth is unreasonable, I think this time you're going to see more effort in emerging markets. Plus what someone else said about them being on the market longer and thus selling for longer also would apply to the prediction.
That said, I don't know if I think this is really the last generation coming up.
Again with the fucking RAM. "Huge RAM makes innovation likely" my ass.
RAM is not magical pixie dust, 8GB of RAM is nothing special, GDDR5 RAM is nothing new.
It's great that PS4 (and probably the next Xbox) have a good amount of RAM, a lack of RAM seriously held the last generation back in the latter years, but it's not a fucking magic bullet guaranteeing monster sales.
RAM is not magical pixie dust, 8GB of RAM is nothing special, GDDR5 RAM is nothing new.
It's great that PS4 (and probably the next Xbox) have a good amount of RAM, a lack of RAM seriously held the last generation back in the latter years, but it's not a fucking magic bullet guaranteeing monster sales.
Barkley's Justice
Member
ps4/360 will sell less than their now-generation counterparts.
Alex
Member
I think it's too high, I understand the assumption that the lapsed Wii purchases would go back into other consoles like before, but I still think we're going to trend downwards a fair chunk further than that. There's more devices, services, types of entertainment, etc to complete with than ever before.
As for the split, right now I think Nintendo will wind up regressing to ~N64 numbers, Sony is a complete mystery (although their software choices don't seem inspiring) and Microsoft is the best off for consumer confidence right now. So i'm going to guess something like... Nintendo - 30 million, Sony - 40 million, Microsoft - 60 million just to come back and laugh at how wrong I probably was later on.
As for the split, right now I think Nintendo will wind up regressing to ~N64 numbers, Sony is a complete mystery (although their software choices don't seem inspiring) and Microsoft is the best off for consumer confidence right now. So i'm going to guess something like... Nintendo - 30 million, Sony - 40 million, Microsoft - 60 million just to come back and laugh at how wrong I probably was later on.
Wii HD not coming out was a mistake (or rather, waiting until 2012 to make it and asking $350 for it was a mistake). Wii completely lost momentum, Nintendo was too slow.
metalslimer
Member
85-90 million? In the current environment? Sure, we'll see. Especially if he thinks people are interested in 70 dollar games.
No one was going to buy a Wii that played games in HD. It would have been an even more pointless console than Wii U.
No one was going to buy a Wii that played games in HD. It would have been an even more pointless console than Wii U.
The question I keep asking myself in regards to the longevity of proprietary game consoles is not a matter of content or pricing as much as will multimedia settop boxes from companies like Apple/Google etc take off in the coming years?
If these companies can manage to break through with affordable boxes that offer all the non-game related functionality of an xbox/ps3 and also provide a similar casual gaming experience, that's only going to further reduce the mass appeal of game consoles.
Let's face it, video games, with some exceptions, are a niche thing. Lots of people play social/mobile games, but very few of those customers are willing to buy a device strictly for games. We're going to see these two segments of the consumer base fragment going forward, and I think that if Sony/Microsoft still want core gamer money, they're going to have to seriously scale back their sales expectations.
If these companies can manage to break through with affordable boxes that offer all the non-game related functionality of an xbox/ps3 and also provide a similar casual gaming experience, that's only going to further reduce the mass appeal of game consoles.
Let's face it, video games, with some exceptions, are a niche thing. Lots of people play social/mobile games, but very few of those customers are willing to buy a device strictly for games. We're going to see these two segments of the consumer base fragment going forward, and I think that if Sony/Microsoft still want core gamer money, they're going to have to seriously scale back their sales expectations.
Diddy Kong
Banned
So we know nothing about the next Xbox but it's going to outsell Wii-U? Come on son.
lol
Its hard to read/hear his predictions as gaming enthusiasts yes. Who is Pachters audience though?
Investors.
Delusibeta
Banned
So, we can now confirm that the WiiU will be by far the best selling games console in the new gen, that the PS4 will be priced greater than 600 dollars and that there will be no Kinect nor Skype integration in the next Xbox.
AZ Greg
Member
How do you figure this as well?
The PS2/Xbox/GC sold for ~195 million worldwide.
The PS3/360/Wii are at ~247 million worldwide.
Now when you take out the casuals that got on the Wii train it probably does drop below last generation, but to call it a big decline is a bit of a stretch.
ShineALight
Member
I think he's saying that this generation won't be Nintendo's last (as claimed on one of the slides), because they have a team dedicated to the research of new hardware.
Yep, funny how things turn out. Sony finally remembered that in order to have innovation all they need to do is empower game developers.
metalslimer
Member
Take out a lot of the casuals who owned a PS3/360 as well unless you seriously think there was anywhere near 150 million core gamers who bought the PS3/360. Sure the core gamer base for consoles will be around but as more and more alternatives pop up to consoles we will see their relevance dwindle as we've seen handhelds dwindle.
K
kittens
Unconfirmed Member
Without a doubt.
Ribbed for your pleasure
Canis lupus
Member
200-250m consoles sold, how will that be the last generation?
SneakyStephan
Banned
God I hope not haha.
If I could have my way I'd still be posting using my sweet sweet crt monitor in 8 years.
SapientWolf
Trucker Sexologist
50m for the Wii U seems pretty sporty. Especially after predicting its doom.
That on depends how many of the 100 million Wii owners are casuals.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Wouldn't slower RAM for the Xbox 3 have basically the same effect of not being able to take advantage completely of PS4's RAM to utilize whatever innovation could possible come out of it? I'm not a tech person, but then again, neither is Pachter.
Besides, it's listed specifically in the PS4 section.
And ignoring potential platform differences, I'm not sure what major innovations are supposed to come from the RAM but I haven't looked into it much so there may be a lot I guess.
Think about how much has changed in terms of the buying habits/trends of consumer electronics in the past 6-7 years. A lot can happen over the course of a lifecycle.
metalslimer
Member
Considering 3rd party developers will be making sure that games can run on the LCD (durango) the big innovation will becoming from exclusive games.
If the consoles actually sell that much it means they will all have pretty decent lifecycles assuming this gen will be 5-6 years. There will definitely be another console gen if they sell that much.
kingkaiser
Member
So, both PS4 and Durango/nextBox will surpass their predecessors in lifetime sales but...next gen still gonna be last Gen (probably)...yeah seems just like good old Pachter logic...
I'm not saying I know for sure what'll happen, it's just my own amateur prediction. It seems to me there are far too many competitive consumer electronic products that are taking away attention from console gaming. Adults these days are far more attracted to different types of gadgets it seems. And while many people disagree, I have always felt that console gaming is still heavily affected by the whims of kids. Gaming has always and will always be associated with the toy market, and though kids that have grown to adults now make up a significant portion of that market, the waning attractiveness of console gaming to kids is, in my eyes anwyay, going to have a noticeable impact on dedicated consoles.
Which of course is why there is so much emphasis on services these days. All in all, I do think that dedicated console gaming will remain sustainable into the foreseeable future off of the back of hardcore gamers but I don't see that market growing either.
Added Dreamcast to your post, but last gen still beat it by 40 million.
Yep, looks right to me.
Cloud gaming perhaps?
How do you become one of these analysts and how much does it pay? It doesn't seem to matter how often you're wrong, you still keep your job.
I think we can all agree that the trend is no better than zero growth or marginal growth, and should proceed from there.
Gemüsepizza
Member
I think the WiiU numbers make sense. Generally, his PS4 and Xbox numbers seem like a safe bet, but I just don't see how the PS4 and Xbox 3 could have nearly the same sale numbers, when they will be so different compared to current gen, and start at the same time. I expect those Xbox 3 numbers to be a lot lower, maybe around 50 millions, and PS4 at 100 millions. I can't see many people buying the Xbox 3 if the specs are true. Word of mouth will be important, people will know that the PS4 is stronger. I think Sony has a good chance to get back to PS2 form.
AZ Greg
Member
If you're going to go down the path then we can also ponder how many casuals bought a PS2 just for its DVD functionality.
Exactly. And we can probably assume, based on N64/GC numbers, that ~25-35 million Wii sales were the Nintendo faithful that would have bought into the platform regardless of the craze. So if you take out the remaining casuals, and assume they wouldn't have bought any other consoles, it does lead to a smaller number vs. last generation, but my point was that it is hard to classify it as a "big decline".