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[NotLiquid]

The Wii U doing 50 million seems like a reasonable estimation honestly. It'd even put it above Gamecube levels.

But I'm a bit disappointed in that there's a lack of skepticism in how well next-gen console launch windows will perform. Saying that the PS4 is going to do 100m lifetime sales with the only reason of it doing well being pretty much "it's got RAM in it" seems about as well thought out as the 240fps @ 1080p statement.

 

[Eusis]

Will we refer back to that image in 2018 and laugh?

Maybe.

It feels like there's a real chance of it this time, but as they say "the more things change the more they stay the same", there may well still be a need to go with new consoles, at least for another generation or two, at least within the next few decades. But I do get the suspicion the trend will be to slow down as it's getting harder to make significant jumps at affordable prices. Hell, I could see a situation where consoles DO keep coming but it corresponds more with significant technology changes, IE new types of displays (4K, maybe even something holographic in the future?) or forms of internet connections like how the 360 built in wi-fi in the first major revision. Simply advancing graphical capabilities may not be worth it unless there's a display to show that detail better like 4K.

 

[Gemüsepizza]

I agree. And it's also why I think Sony are ahead of the game with PS+.

Sony are "training" gamers to accept subscriptions to content (whereas MS focus on subscriptions to functionality). One day there'll be a box that sits under your TV, or it's a tablet, a laptop, whatever, and you'll subscribe to the PSN channel, the EA channel, the Activision channel and so forth.

Gaming will become service based just like cable/satellite TV and the likes of Netflix. The device will become less important (e.g Netflix), content will be king. Sony and Nintendo are well positioned for this, MS less so IMO.

I was surprised with Sony ditching Cell as I don't believe consoles as we know them will last another gen. It seemed the price of losing BC is not worth it for one more gen; why switch to X86 for one gen only?

I should prob point out, I still believe games as we know them will continue to exist; we'll just consume that content in different ways, much like we do now with film, TV and music.

It's much easier to have servers with x86 processors than servers with Cell processors. I think it's a good step, because it will guarantee them easy BC for all following consoles. Of course it hurts a little because we have just entered the age of (downloadable) digital content connected to accounts, but it's better to make a cut now than to push this problem into the future.

 

[PFD]

If next gen is last gen then what comes after? Or rather, what does the market transition to?

Games will be streamed directly to our brains.

 

[joeblow]

Until we get glasses free 3D photographic quality holograms in our gaming dens, the generations will keep marching forward. Releases will continue to come later and later however.

 

[nekomix]

ignoring the GC and the Wii for a second, last generation the PS2 sold about 100 million (before the PS3 launched) and the Xbox sold about 20 million. so give or take a few systems, that's a core audience of 120 million.

yeah... it's a well-known fact that EVERY buyer of Xbox or PS2 (especially PS2) are core gamers, sure

 

[Donnie]

Pachter is an utter mong.

 

[yon61]

With those hardware figures, how can he expect the 8th gen to be the last?

 

[Donnie]

With those hardware figures, how can he expect the 8th gen to be the last?

I think I answered that one above.

 

[Manmademan]

yeah... it's a well-known fact that EVERY buyer of Xbox or PS2 (especially PS2) are core gamers, sure

not all of them, but that's the audience sony and microsoft targeted, and by and large that audience has stuck with them- there's no significant difference between the marketing and positioning of the ps2 or ps3, or xbox and xbox 360.

The gamecube and the wii on the other hand both targeted two completely different audiences. the gamecube was basically the nintendo hardcore, drawn to their traditional franchises, and the wii was that audience plus casual gamers that were uninterested in traditional consoles. it doesn't really make sense to include GC and Wii numbers when doing a generation to generation comparison.

 

[Spawnling]

So, that's it then?

I don't understand how these people can make predictions so far into the future based on how little we know about developing that far. To say that this next generation is "the last generation" is a bit absurd.

Cars that will come out in 2018 will be the last ones, just so you know.

 

[Oblivion]

Did Pachter get banned? Or did he decide to exile himself?

 

[Mandoric]

Numbers are vaguely OK, but way too US-centric; TV tuner is unlikely to be a major USP for Microsoft, as either it's easy to expand region-by-region and Sony can build on PSX/Torne for a US launch or it's hard to expand region-by-region and the likely MS offering will only reach one market.

The prediction that this is the "last gen" is completely absurd; with two x86 boxes from the HD twins, consoles are either already dead as exotic architecture or living forever as particular manufacturers' walled app gardens+gimmick sets. Even if Sony and MS both close up shop, you'll just have the exclusives and power war between AppleTV and Ouya.

 

[Chinpoko_Master]

Lower all of his predictions by about 20 million and I could agree with them.

 

[Meelow]

not all of them, but that's the audience sony and microsoft targeted, and by and large that audience has stuck with them- there's no significant difference between the marketing and positioning of the ps2 or ps3, or xbox and xbox 360.

The gamecube and the wii on the other hand both targeted two completely different audiences. the gamecube was basically the nintendo hardcore, drawn to their traditional franchises, and the wii was that audience plus casual gamers that were uninterested in traditional consoles. it doesn't really make sense to include GC and Wii numbers when doing a generation to generation comparison.

From what I saw the GameCube was pretty much trying to be what the PS2 and Xbox were, the only reason people thought it was kiddy compared to the PS2 and Xbox was because it looked like a "launch box" and how Nintendo's main color for it was Purple.

 

[A Black Falcon]

If you're going to go down the path then we can also ponder how many casuals bought a PS2 just for its DVD functionality.



Exactly. And we can probably assume, based on N64/GC numbers, that ~25-35 million Wii sales were the Nintendo faithful that would have bought into the platform regardless of the craze. So if you take out the remaining casuals, and assume they wouldn't have bought any other consoles, it does lead to a smaller number vs. last generation, but my point was that it is hard to classify it as a "big decline".

Right, you can't just cut out one platform because it has a lot of casuals, while ignoring all the others... sure, many casual gamers got Wiis, but huge numbers of casual gamers also got PS2s, and PS1s before them. What really matters, as far as industry growth is concerned, is the overall total sold, not who they were sold to... there's no way to know for sure exactly what percent of Wii or PS2 (or PS3 or 60 or GC or Xbox or what have you) owners are "casuals", and what percent are "hardcore"... if you could even come to commonly accepted definitions for both terms relative to each platform in question.

 

[SneakyStephan]

not all of them, but that's the audience sony and microsoft targeted, and by and large that audience has stuck with them- there's no significant difference between the marketing and positioning of the ps2 or ps3, or xbox and xbox 360.

The gamecube and the wii on the other hand both targeted two completely different audiences. the gamecube was basically the nintendo hardcore, drawn to their traditional franchises, and the wii was that audience plus casual gamers that were uninterested in traditional consoles. it doesn't really make sense to include GC and Wii numbers when doing a generation to generation comparison.

The wii wasn't for the core.. Nintendo specifically told the core they could fuck off.
"you are no longer our target audience sorry''

I had a gamecube, and I will remember that little gem of a line.

 

[Manmademan]

So, that's it then?

I don't understand how these people can make predictions so far into the future based on how little we know about developing that far. To say that this next generation is "the last generation" is a bit absurd.

Cars that will come out in 2018 will be the last ones, just so you know.

well, after this next generation there may not be a use for a traditional "box" under the tv that plays discs. Gaikai and Onlive already have a functioning business model that can stream games to anything. what will 10 more years bring?

other platforms (looking at tablets here) may also catch up in performance to the point that the graphics are "good enough" for the average consumer.

i don't agree with pachter that the next generation will be the last, but I can see the one after that being a LOT different.

Right, you can't just cut out one platform because it has a lot of casuals, while ignoring all the others... sure, many casual gamers got Wiis, but huge numbers of casual gamers also got PS2s, and PS1s before them. What really matters, as far as industry growth is concerned, is the overall total sold, not who they were sold to... there's no way to know for sure exactly what percent of Wii or PS2 (or PS3 or 60 or GC or Xbox or what have you) owners are "casuals", and what percent are "hardcore"... if you could even come to commonly accepted definitions for both terms relative to each platform in question.

not saying that the PS2 had no casual gamers, that would be silly. but the consumers that the PS2, Xbox, PS3, and Xbox 360 marketed themselves to were exactly the same- from the games, to the commercials, to the design of the console. heavily skewed towards males 14-35, who already have an interest in games. And judging by the total consoles sold at this point, their efforts were successful and this audience grew. "casual" gamers buying the ps1 or ps2 were still very likely males in that age group that still played games- just not as often. Casual gamers that bought the wii were just as likely to be 40 year old moms that never bought a console ever. Totally different comparison. the definition of "casual" gamer shifted wildly this time around.

There was growth in the GC to Wii audience, but nintendo targeted two totally different groups for both consoles, so looking at growth isn't all that useful.

 

[IdreamofHIME]

I'm telling you, there's no way Walking Dead is winning GOTY





:/

 

[Plinko]

For core gamers, and if they launch at the same time - yes.

The majority of sales of game consoles don't come from "core gamers."

 

[Manmademan]

The majority of sales of game consoles don't come from "core gamers."

the majority of sales of launch consoles do, though- (wii excluded again). and that can drive sales and software support down the road that attracts casual gamers.

 

[tehrik-e-insaaf]

Pachter should add his source for some of his ideas: GAF

 

[FStop7]

85 - 95 million units but it's the final generation?

 

[Gemüsepizza]

The majority of sales of game consoles don't come from "core gamers."

But they can advertise the console to friends etc. - and the PS4 is offering more than just specs, as I have pointed out in another post.

 

[Manmademan]

I'm telling you, there's no way Walking Dead is winning GOTY





:/

what

 

[Ushae]

Just like the greatly exaggerated death of PC gaming. Amirite?

 

[antitrop]

what

Oh, you don't remember the time Pacther said that two hours before exactly what he said wouldn't happen happened?

 

[flippedb]

RAM will allow for innovation? Really Pach?

 

[ASTROID2]

Sales predictions are totally off. People keep on overestimating how PS4/XBox will do. My prediction is Nintendo will outsell both of them. And yes I believe that. We'll see in 7 or so years whose right.

 

[RustyNails]

Pachman, I know you get torn left and right on GAF but seriously, next gen of consoles will be last? This has to be the boldest (or stupidest) prediction yet.

 

[Sandfox]

the majority of sales of launch consoles do, though- (wii excluded again). and that can drive sales and software support down the road that attracts casual gamers.

It really depends. A ton of people bought the PS2 and PS3 for DVD/Blu-Ray and they weren't necessarily gamers and even then I don't think people are arguing that core gamers won't pick up the consoles.

 

[snowdog1971]

Nostradamus speaks again.

Funnily enough, Nostradamus was a major spacehead that did copious amounts of hallucinagenic drugs whilst writing his Prophesies. Would certainly explain some of the stuff that Patcher comes up with lol.

 

[metalslimer]

I honestly believe it's more important that the Wii U would have come out sooner so that Nintendo wouldn't have ignored/killed the Wii for 3 years. What the Wii U did (the fictional one) almost seems less important than when it was.

If Nintendo had launched a Wii HD for the same cost as the PS3/360 who exactly would have been the market? We're talking about 2010 right which is when Pachter said he wanted the thing to come out. If Nintendo had released a new console in 2010 they would have had nothing at all to launch with it. If it had PS3/360 multiplatform games, no one would have dropped their PS3/360s for a Wii HD. What would have happened is that they would have ended up abadoning the Wii even earlier than they did which would have made no sense when the Wii sold 4 million units in December of 2009 and they had a lot of their development tied into the Wii at that point. The problems Nintendo has with the Wii transition were inevitable due to the structure they had set up and launching in 2009 would have just exasperated the problems.

No, what Nintendo should have done was during the peak of the Wii years invested a large sum of money into acquiring western studios and began making multiple deals with 3rd party developers, asked all of them what they wanted from a next gen console, and conceded their isolationist view of the industry to a more level headed approach. Then they should have launched the Wii U in 2011 with Skyward Sword as a launch game along with all the big PS3/360 multiplats of the day (Skyrim, MW3, BF,etc.). Instead what we're left with is Nintendo being caught unaware that Wii sales were going to decline, and when they did they rushed into trying to finish Wii U only to realize that HD development was going to be a much more massive undertaking than they thought. And whatever massive deal they had with EA completely fell through probably due to EA asking for a lot more leeway with their games than even Sony or MS gave them due to Nintendo's complete vulnerability when it comes to 3rd parties.

 

[deviljho]

Yeah Im wondering why people assume they grow together.

I'm not sure if you're agreeing with me here, or not, because i never wrote "grow togther," i wrote "grow evenly together." just curious

 

[DaBuddaDa]

It irritates me when people predict the end of consoles without making any suggestion as to what will replace them. Are they just gonna walk off into the sunset with a tip of their hat? Are Sony and Microsoft and Nintendo just going to say "adios guys!"? Why would you predict the next generation of consoles to sell over 200 million combined units then say they'll be the last?

 

[speculawyer]

Maybe they'll sell discs for $70 but then offer digital download versions for $50 and that will get people to move to digital distribution.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I like how now it's okay to exclude the Wii and label it a different market.

Also, I hope people are counting the PS2 @ 150M last gen without realising 50M of those units were sold this gen.

We also don't know how long Pachter's hypothetical generation spans.

 

[Iacobellis]

If the Wii U gets a decent price drop and first party titles for the next few years, it could be like a GameCube 2 in a way.

 

[Axspell]

The Wii U is a DS... split in two? What? It's a DS. You have a bottom screen and a top screen.

As it stands I think the fact that the Wii U is basically a console-based DS is not at all a bad thing -- the DS proved that its interface can allow some really innovative gameplay experiences and, although it was a handheld and in no way indicative of console sales, it sold pretty damn well, too.

 

[astroturfing]

anyone ever seen a Pachter thread with no one calling him Patcher?

it's driving me nuts waiting for one to happen.

 

[prag16]

The Wii U doing 50 million seems like a reasonable estimation honestly. It'd even put it above Gamecube levels.

But I'm a bit disappointed in that there's a lack of skepticism in how well next-gen console launch windows will perform. Saying that the PS4 is going to do 100m lifetime sales with the only reason of it doing well being pretty much "it's got RAM in it" seems about as well thought out as the 240fps @ 1080p statement.

Agree with all of this post. Looking back on some of these threads in a couple years could be amusing. So many getting carried away by unbridled optimism for PS4/720 which frankly as of right now doesn't really seem warranted. I guess time will tell.

 

[Pie and Beans]

So after selling close to 100 million of something, both Sony and MS will call it a day. MS maybe, but anything Sony selling 50 million these days is a "phew" moment for them, and I dont think all electronics companies are going to suddenly find meteorite ore and start flogging that suddenly in 2022.

Sales predictions are totally off. People keep on overestimating how PS4/XBox will do. My prediction is Nintendo will outsell both of them. And yes I believe that. We'll see in 7 or so years whose right.

It won't be you. At least not on the home console front. Pachter at least has it part right, this is probably the last Nintendo Home Console. All in on a hybrid HD handheld device.

 

[big youth]

It irritates me when people predict the end of consoles without making any suggestion as to what will replace them. Are they just gonna walk off into the sunset with a tip of their hat? Are Sony and Microsoft and Nintendo just going to say "adios guys!"? Why would you predict the next generation of consoles to sell over 200 million combined units then say they'll be the last?

my thoughts exactly

 

[snowdog1971]

If Patcher had any sense he would have said that the PS4 will have the worst launch of the 3 current gen consoles due to their daft choice of hardware. Sony aren't in a financial position to make huge losses on each unit sold. There's no way in hell that Sony will able to launch at a price less than 400 dollars with 8GB of GDDR5 and a GPU pushing 1.8TFlops.

Microsoft may also have problems if the rumours about needing the thing to be always online and used games being buggered are true. They've actually made some sensible choices with what's in the box, they should be able to have it retailing for $399.99 but I can see the used game situation in particular being a dealbreaker for a fair few people tbh.

Then you've also got to take into account that both consoles' components will be on a 32nm or (more likely) 28nm process meaning there's going to be a shitload of wasted silicon and the consoles being supply constrained as a result.

And I don't think these 'experts' are giving Nintendo's system selling software enough credit during the Wii U's lifespan either. The Wii U isn't going to replicate the success of the Wii last gen, but I can't see it being another N64 or GameCube in terms of installed userbase either. Somewhere in between sounds about right to me.

 

[AZ Greg]

Saying that the PS4 is going to do 100m lifetime sales with the only reason of it doing well being pretty much "it's got RAM in it" seems about as well thought out as the 240fps @ 1080p statement.

You took the high end of his estimate AND added 5 million to it to make your point. 85-95 million, which is his lifetime PS4 prediction, could end up being lower than what the PS3 finishes at when it is all said and done. So he may even be predicting a decline lifetime PS3 to lifetime PS4. Your post reads like he is predicting the PS4 to sell double the PS3 simply due to 8GB OF GDDR5!

 

[Massa]

RAM will allow for innovation?

Yes, really.

 

[GhostOfLawlight]

It irritates me when people predict the end of consoles without making any suggestion as to what will replace them. Are they just gonna walk off into the sunset with a tip of their hat? Are Sony and Microsoft and Nintendo just going to say "adios guys!"? Why would you predict the next generation of consoles to sell over 200 million combined units then say they'll be the last?

This so much. People just claim that next gen will be the last console generation but can't say why exactly.

 

[Alchemy]

What fucking business drys up after shipping 250 million units of hardware plus all the software associated with that? There is no market for console gamers to transition to, mobile and social gaming is an additive market not a replacement. Pachter doesn't know shit.

 

[Sorral]

Yes, really.

I am having a hard figuring out whether you are being sarcastic or not. But I think from knowing you, you are not.

This is a rare generation where we actually won't be starved on RAM and I'd say yes as well.

 

[metalslimer]

8GB of RAM allows for a massive amount of innovation, I don't see how anyone can deny that. Now whether that will actually result in as much innovation as it allows versus the same kinds of games we have now that look prettier is another thing. I'm looking forward to see what Valve can do in the next generation with Source 2 if they still are seriously committed to game development.