AZ Greg
Member
Um, that is exactly what he predicted...
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Pachter - Next gen is last gen; projected console sales figures; Xbox to win next gen
- Thread starter Wario64
- Start date
Um, that is exactly what he predicted...
Sammy Samusu
Member
Someone is gonna bump this thread four years from now.
Nintendo is already developing a next-gen system so this is already 100% confirmed to be wrong. And it makes sense too. If Wii U fails they'll need to push something else out, a new proposition, and if it doesn't they'll want to continue. There's no way the future doesn't have at least 1 more.
AZ Greg
Member
If he is wrong, yeah.
But if he is right it will just remain buried like this...
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=118133&highlight=pachter
Man, it was pretty hard to find one where he took a decent sized gamble and got it right! lol
I took it to mean that this might be the last generation where we get gaming consoles as we have traditionally known them.
It makes sense. Microsoft is moving quickly to position the Xbox brand as an all-around entertainment hub for the living-room with gaming as the cornerstone. Absolutely brilliant and forward-thinking positioning - if you ask me - since Apple and Google have made it perfectly clear that the living-room is their next target.
Sony is attempting the same with Playstation, although with slightly less success.
Nintendo....well, Nintendo is backing themselves further and futher into a corner. Who knows what they're doing these days.
prag16
Banned
Citation needed?
reelbigtink
Member
The only thought I have after seeing the first post is that that guy's neck looks like Vegeta's forehead.
But really I can't see any of the next gen consoles selling into the 80-90 million range. There are too many cheap alternatives now. A healthy 50 - maybe 70 mil or so seems more likely.
But really I can't see any of the next gen consoles selling into the 80-90 million range. There are too many cheap alternatives now. A healthy 50 - maybe 70 mil or so seems more likely.
Lord Ghirahim
Member
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/130131qa/index.html Queston 2.
Nintendo is absolutely developing new hardware, I'm mean they built them a whole building that will be the future home of their hardware team and all. And in that answer Iwata pretty much flat out denies they are pursuing handheld/console integration and further suggests the possibility of additional form factors if they can share resources.
Less than $599.
AZ Greg
Member
Why does it matter? Innovation is innovation.
Sorry, my head ain't right tonight.
A Black Falcon
Member
Each generation, console makers have aimed slightly older. So, the third gen systems (NES and such) aimed at young children. The SNES and Genesis aimed at children and younger teenagers. The PS1 and N64 aimed at teenagers and children. The PS2, GC, and Xbox people in their mid 20s and below. Then last gen, 18-35 probably for the PS3/360, and all ages for Nintendo. People playing games keep gradually getting older, so the consoles adjust over time and keep aiming slightly older each generation. Each generation also continues to aim at the younger ages the previous ones did, though, so there's always more people being added at all age ranges.
(Computer games, by the way, have aimed at adults since the beginning, pretty much.)
So yeah, Nintendo did aim at a new market with the Wii, but Sony and MS didn't keep things exactly as they had the previous gen, either. And the Wii has a good number of traditional games for gamers; it's certainly not a system with only a casual base. The Wii was not just for people who don't play games at all, after all. I mean, sure, Nintendo did change their focus, but they tried to appeal to both groups at once.
Also, games like the SingStar line on the PS2 in Europe sold almost exclusively to what anyone would call a casual audience, and there that was a BIG seller. Quite a few of those "40 year old moms" bought PS2s for things like that. Many other people bough it just to be a DVD player and barely ever bought any games for it. You'd need to take that into account too.
But again, every generation sees a change in the gaming audience. That PS360 14-35 males target market you mention? First I'd say that by now it's really 18-35 that gets the biggest PS30 focus, but beyond that, yeah, the PS2/Xbox/GC were not aimed at that, not really. 13-25 for the PS2 and Xbox, maybe? As I said, audiences expand each generation. Nintendo did decide to expand it even more with the Wii, but they also released stuff for core gamers too.
In 5-7 years everybody will have fiber in their home and will ditch their consoles in favor of streaming services like OnLive of Gaikai, right? Only crazy diehards will actually care about owning anything anymore...
Now, for a long-term prediction that IS a possible (not good, but possible) future, but it's most certainly not one that's coming in the next 5 or 8 years. And while there is something of a diminishing of returns in graphics, that doesn't mean that people will say "that's enough, never buying another system now". That's silly, we're not at that point!
Now if the idea is that there's going to be a crash and that's why it'll be the last gen for a while... well, that's possible. But with those sales projections, Pachter isn't predicting that.
airmangataosenai
Member
Why are people acting like the sales for this generation are already finalized? PS3/360 are likely to end their lives somewhere near or above 95 million when before they get discontinued. His figures and analysis is very conservative, albeit the more likely scenario which he fails to take into account is that one of them will be much more successful than the other: The systems are too similar for both to thrive in my view.
Also those saying that no system is likely to surpass 50 million LTD is an idiot and has no right to criticize Pachter. Even if we saw a situation where we're facing serious decline the worldwide market will not shrink by 50%, especially with new emerging markets in Asia and South America poised to actually increase sales.
Also those saying that no system is likely to surpass 50 million LTD is an idiot and has no right to criticize Pachter. Even if we saw a situation where we're facing serious decline the worldwide market will not shrink by 50%, especially with new emerging markets in Asia and South America poised to actually increase sales.
How do computers work?
Let them be ignorant.
But the PS2's DVD playback and the Guitar Hero phenomenon also pushed it's growth so far ahead of the competition that we can say there were "anomalies" during that generation as well.
SapientWolf
Trucker Sexologist
It means that games won't be as memory bound anymore. Whether that means more innovation or not is up for speculation. I think more diverse business models are what will really allow for more innovation next gen. AAA games usually play it safe because it's too much money to gamble with.
With less limitations, that opens up the possibility for more innovation.
It's pretty simple.
Next generation is going to be the last generation as the aggregate consoles sold declines. Interestingly enough since he numbers are so high for the PS4 and Durango, it almost seems like they'll be a bigger development base that this generation.
I can see and sort of suspect that'll be the last generation, but both the PS4 and Xbox 8 should be lower than their current generation ltds to reflect that.
airmangataosenai
Member
This has been coming up a lot too and I feel like it needs to be addressed too. PS2+Gamecube+Xbox was 201 million. PS3+360 alone are over 153 million and still going up (All 3 are currently at over 250 million). Even if you cut the Wii's sales in half it would still be a modest improvement over the 6th generation. We're seeing substantial growth this generation regardless of Nintendo's performance.
He said that this generation as well, in 2009. Someone has said this like every generation.
http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/90443-Pachter-This-Is-The-Final-Generation
http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/90443-Pachter-This-Is-The-Final-Generation
Net_Wrecker
Member
How did we go from
"8 GB GDDR5? ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!"
to
"8GB GDDR5? So what? How can that even do games?"
I'm sure devs not having as huge memory constraints will be a BIG deal next gen. The launch lineup won't show it, but the second and third round of games (especially open world) will blow faces away.
"8 GB GDDR5? ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!"
to
"8GB GDDR5? So what? How can that even do games?"
I'm sure devs not having as huge memory constraints will be a BIG deal next gen. The launch lineup won't show it, but the second and third round of games (especially open world) will blow faces away.
Exactly, how can the console market as a whole grow, to then go away according to Patcher.
The numbers for this generation are Wii ~100 million 360-PS3 ~70-80 million. How can both PS4 and 720 suddenly be both around 100 million and the Wii U 60 million? Are the PS4 or 720 going to be heavily casual market machines like the Wii?
Most people seem to agree that the majority of the Wii "casual" market has gone to buy .99 cent iPhone games. What makes Patcher believe that those people will buy a 720 or PS4? Is Sony or Microsoft secretly keeping the bombshell of more "Imagine Babiez" or more "Petz" or some other casual shovelware from all of us?
Ram has little effect of gfx once you hit a certain point. The biggest thing with more ram is it allows game designer to do about anything they like without the worry of running out of ram. Ram is the most limiting factor in games this Gen. Really it has nothing to do with gfx.
PS3? Don't they still need 30 million to get there? I really don't see them reaching 90-100 million unless it comes at the cost of PS4 sales. Which I believe would mean less lifetime PS4 sales.
I could see the 360 probably getting there. I don't see the Durango releasing this holiday, meaning another holiday of sales.
I think it really depends on whether devs want to put that much effort/budget into games to take significant advantage of what the extra RAM allows them to do.
lowhighkang_LHK
Member
I can see the upcoming generation selling more LTD than this generation for the simple fact that I expect the PS4/Durango generation to last longer than the PS3/360 generation. With longer software support, this will drive console sales a few extra years and it should be able to get that LTD.
I don't get what he's saying though that it'll be the last generation of "consoles." Unless he means a form of purely stream from your TV based gaming, but we know that's not going to happen unless the US makes a drastic change on how it's broadband works.
I don't get what he's saying though that it'll be the last generation of "consoles." Unless he means a form of purely stream from your TV based gaming, but we know that's not going to happen unless the US makes a drastic change on how it's broadband works.
SapientWolf
Trucker Sexologist
PCs haven't been limited by RAM for awhile either. It just didn't make business sense to take advantage of it.
AZ Greg
Member
Both need ~15 million to get to 90. And Pachter's predictions for the PS4/720 were 85-95 million. You're doing like the previous poster that took the high-end of his prediction and then added more to it. Regardless, he is basically predicting they'll do the same as this generation. He isn't saying they're gonna capture all the people who were on the Wii bandwagon.
Broken Logic
Neo Member
You might need to re-read his post, and his quote. Sure he's a little off, but only by 5 mil in his quick approximation. If ps3/xbox around around 75 mil, they need 25 mil to get to 100. qko is saying he doesn't think ps3, at least, will reach 90, let alone 100. And that if they do, it'll mean not so good things for the ps4.
invaderzim69
Member
Wow. For PS4 and Durango to sell more this gen in their lifetime, especially if they are priced too high. I don't know about that.
With the headstart the Wii U has, it still could pick up sales quickly if the they just get more games. But they are not going to have the same kind of success like they did with the Wii.
With the headstart the Wii U has, it still could pick up sales quickly if the they just get more games. But they are not going to have the same kind of success like they did with the Wii.
Can Crusher
Banned
Making lifetime sales predictions on PS4 and Durango seems...early.
GetemMa
Member
-$70 games
-possibly DRM or limited advantages to 2nd hand retail
-sluggish economy
-competition from tablets
-Xbox sold 75 million but how many of those people bought more than one because RRD? my best friend has purcahsed 3
-PS3 also probably has a decent % of repeat buyers from YLOD.
and he expects PS4 and next Xbox to sell almost 100 million EACH?
LOL, no way. Maybe combined. Unless both are faulty pieces of crap again.
His Wii-U prediction is probably more accurate. 30 to 35 million. I think Nintendo would be thrilled to sell 50 million.
I know his business is to advise investors on tech companies, maybe he is denial that the only ones that will see growth in the coming years already cost $500 a share at least like Apple and Google.
What was so impressive about the PS4 presentation btw? I didn't see anything that will have the masses rushing out to pick this up. The core will be there but it is here now and the industry is in free fall. It is a HW upgrade in a box. It has a few kind of neat social features and as a multimedia center it seems a marginal upgrade from what we have now.
-possibly DRM or limited advantages to 2nd hand retail
-sluggish economy
-competition from tablets
-Xbox sold 75 million but how many of those people bought more than one because RRD? my best friend has purcahsed 3
-PS3 also probably has a decent % of repeat buyers from YLOD.
and he expects PS4 and next Xbox to sell almost 100 million EACH?
LOL, no way. Maybe combined. Unless both are faulty pieces of crap again.
His Wii-U prediction is probably more accurate. 30 to 35 million. I think Nintendo would be thrilled to sell 50 million.
I know his business is to advise investors on tech companies, maybe he is denial that the only ones that will see growth in the coming years already cost $500 a share at least like Apple and Google.
What was so impressive about the PS4 presentation btw? I didn't see anything that will have the masses rushing out to pick this up. The core will be there but it is here now and the industry is in free fall. It is a HW upgrade in a box. It has a few kind of neat social features and as a multimedia center it seems a marginal upgrade from what we have now.
Darth Tigris
Member
Armageddon.
Darth Tigris
Member
At this point in the game, ALL predictions are crazy predictions. Seriously, if we did the same with what we know now, could we really do any better?
If anyone comes back to this in 2018 to laugh at it really needs to have better goals in life. Seriously.
If anyone comes back to this in 2018 to laugh at it really needs to have better goals in life. Seriously.
AZ Greg
Member
You might need to re-read the original post of his I quoted. He, along with many others in this thread, are looking at Pachter's lifetime predictions for the PS4/720 of 85-95 million and comparing them to the current PS3/360 numbers and wondering how he can predict such a huge improvement in sales over this generation. But in actuality, it isn't really a shocking unbelievable prediction since the PS3/360 will end up around those numbers when all is said and done for them. It only looks like a huge jump if you assume the PS3/360 are completely done selling. Oh, and if you take the high end of Pachter's 85-95 million prediction AND add 5 million on top of it to get to 100 lol.
soulassssns
Banned
Pachter is "Last Gen".
Nah... just Pachter pulling things out of his ass...