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[Darryl]

I'm not exactly sure what you're expecting from Nintendo to achieve graphical parity with things like Deep Down and Shadow Fall.Yes, that seemed to work well for the PS3 or Wii U.

Oh, come on. I don't think anyone expects Deep Down to be releasing this Holiday. It's a shamble of a tech demo. I know you know this. That's a '14 at the earliest and a '15 title more than likely, which fits exactly into what I was just saying.

Not much to say about current sales. It looks to me like Wii U had good Holiday sales but lost momentum. It could still pick up any time and Nintendo has tons of games coming out this year to push them into the hardcore gaming audience. Very little casual games.

 

[farnham]

Oh, come on. I don't think anyone expects Deep Down to be releasing this Holiday. It's a shamble of a tech demo. I know you know this. That's a '14 at the earliest and a '15 title more than likely, which fits exactly into what I was just saying.

Not much to say about current sales. It looks to me like Wii U had good Holiday sales but lost momentum. It could still pick up any time and Nintendo has tons of games coming out this year to push them into the hardcore gaming audience. Very little casual games.

It will have Wii Fit U, Game and Wario and Wii Party U. I think we can expect it to have Just Dance 5 as well.

 

[Sandfox]

It will have Wii Fit U, Game and Wario and Wii Party U. I think we can expect it to have Just Dance 5 as well.

I don't see Just Dance(and Skylanders) to take off on the Wii U until they stop making them for the Wii.

 

[Darryl]

It will have Wii Fit U, Game and Wario and Wii Party U. I think we can expect it to have Just Dance 5 as well.

I don't see Game and Wario as really being a game meant for the every day casual crowd in Western society at least, but agreed on the other ones. I don't mean there isn't any, but they don't really seem to be their focus.

 

[Sandfox]

I don't see Game and Wario as really being a game meant for the every day casual crowd in Western society at least, but agreed on the other ones. I don't mean there isn't any, but they don't really seem to be their focus.

There's probably going to be more casual game announcements from Nintendo in the near future(like a new Wii Sports or something) and Miyamoto's new IP(if I'm correct on what its going to be) will appeal to both audiences.

 

[darkistheway]

I don't think the "PC" will die out because the PC is a concept. A concept that is universally needed ever since the computer was possible.

Yeah, you are right. I should have said the tower/box aspect of the home computer.

 

[farnham]

I don't see Game and Wario as really being a game meant for the every day casual crowd in Western society at least, but agreed on the other ones. I don't mean there isn't any, but they don't really seem to be their focus.

well it is more of a bridge title like mario kart or nsmbu i guess.

I don't see Just Dance(and Skylanders) to take off on the Wii U until they stop making them for the Wii.

Taking off in a sales number sales has nothing to do with the existence of the title. Are the games going to take off big ? i think it depends on wii party u and wii fit u.

 

[The Dutch Slayer]

sooooo that is something that I could have made up right? no new news?

and I think he is pretty high in the numbers for "next gen" I think its going to do worse than this.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Oh, come on. I don't think anyone expects Deep Down to be releasing this Holiday. It's a shamble of a tech demo. I know you know this. That's a '14 at the earliest and a '15 title more than likely, which fits exactly into what I was just saying.

Shadow Fall is a launch title. Knack is a launch title. Other studios have things in the works. I've yet to see graphical parity, I don't expect to going forward. There's a gulf in what's available to developers on the "Gen4 systems" compared to the Wii U.

Not much to say about current sales. It looks to me like Wii U had good Holiday sales but lost momentum. It could still pick up any time and Nintendo has tons of games coming out this year to push them into the hardcore gaming audience. Very little casual games.

It didn't just "lose momentum" it nosedived. It's December NPD was worse than the PS3's first. It's not going to randomly "pick up at any time" without any major play from Nintendo.

It doesn't have BioShock. It doesn't have Tomb Raider. It doesn't have Metal Gear. It doesn't have GTA. It doesn't even have Madden 25. It's swaying "core" gaming audiences how?

 

[Hermii]

All MS needs to do for the specs not to matter is to show off a launch game that looks noticably better than any of the ps4 launch games, and public percerption will be that the difference is minimal or its a new ps3 360 multiplat situation. And it takes time to change public perception regardless of fact. Should be possible cause launch games dont really push the system.

 

[Darryl]

Shadow Fall is a launch title. Knack is a launch title. Other studios have things in the works. I've yet to see graphical parity, I don't expect to going forward. There's a gulf in what's available to developers on the "Gen4 systems" compared to the Wii U.It didn't just "lose momentum" it nosedived. It's December NPD was worse than the PS3's first. It's not going to randomly "pick up at any time" without any major play from Nintendo.

It doesn't have BioShock. It doesn't have Tomb Raider. It doesn't have Metal Gear. It doesn't have GTA. It doesn't even have Madden 25. It's swaying "core" gaming audiences how?

i don't even know where i'm at in this argument anymore. I was just arguing about their first-party software strategy.

 

[shinra-bansho]

i don't even know where i'm at in this argument anymore. I was just arguing about their first-party software strategy.

You seem to be implying this is all going according to keikaku.

That they intend to wow over "core" gamers with this launch year, then try and attract "casuals" later with a lower priced system and casual targeted software.

And that they'll have these years free and clear with graphical parity against Durango and the PS4.

Which frankly seems like wishful thinking and doesn't gel with the reality of the situation. And if this really was their keikaku; it was a poorly thought out one.

 

[Cromat]

Why do analysts bother with these long-term forecasts? There is no way they are going to be true. He should stick to 2013/2014.

 

[Darryl]

You seem to be implying this is all going according to keikaku.

That they intend to wow over "core" gamers with this launch year, then try and attract "casuals" later with a lower priced system and casual targeted software.

And that they'll have these years free and clear with graphical parity against Durango and the PS4.

Which frankly seems like wishful thinking and doesn't gel with the reality of the situation. And if this really was their keikaku; it was a poorly thought out one.

1. All going to keikaku. I think this is referring to their release schedule. Yes, I do believe their release schedule is going roughly as they planned it. Outside of a Pikmin delay, I've seen little to suggest that everything isn't going as planned with their release schedule.

2. Intend to wow "core" audience", then "casuals" later. Yes, I do believe this until any further evidence comes out. Close Partnerships with Platinum Studios, Capcom, Namco - Smash Brothers, 3D Mario, and Retro and Monolith both developing a core Nintendo title. That's about as much talent as Nintendo can leverage to go after the core audience. No word on Wii Sports U. That's a fact. You won't find anything outside if the Wii U introductory trailer. All signs pointing to a focus on their Nintendo-core audience, regardless of whether or not you think this will be effective overall.

3. "Graphical parity". No one knows as we've seen very little from Nintendo. I'm speculating. Just to make this even more non-offensive, I'm totally open to the idea that they will have amazing graphics later on in their lifespan. I'm talking only about the early lifespan of the consoles.

4. "Wishful thinking, not within reality of the situation'. I don't even know what to think about this one. You're clearly treading on wishful-thinking territory here as well. I disagree about it being poorly thought out. If this is true, it may be just as clever as the Wii.

 

[SpinningBirdKick]

Pachter is now openly predicting Nintendo is going to go third party

I dont know why anyone should think he is a "serious" contributor to any discussion.

He makes his money with clients he receives money from and gives them real advice. to the general public he just focuses on his name being out there so that his name is known.

Nintendo is the least likely out of all the platform owners to go third party.

They have the strongest IP catalogue that has sustained them through thick and thin over many decades. But I digress...

My main point was going to be that I believe that Mr Pachter's clients are receiving the same terrible advice that he is putting into the public domain.

Analysts at security firms main objective is to generate business for the firm, not profits for the client. This is why you often see them flip flopping their position as soon as their previous predictions are revealed as garbage. Their 'advice' makes clients trade the stocks in their portfolio more often, generating business for the investment bank that the customer trades through.

They security firms don't care so much if the advice generates profits for the customer. If it does, then great. If not, another willing chump will be along shortly to follow the instructions in their next research note that they can leech off.

It always amazes me how much faith people have in freely distributed research especially from investment houses. If it was on the mark, it wouldn't be given away for free.

Goldman Sachs research notes were a fantastic counter indicator when I was trading. You could be certain that no matter what Goldman said the reverse would happen. Their Buy notes often called the top of the stock price and their Sell notes would be issued just before the stock price had a rocket lit under it.

 

[Krilekk]

So, both PS4 and Durango/nextBox will surpass their predecessors in lifetime sales but...next gen still gonna be last Gen (probably)...yeah seems just like good old Pachter logic...

They will be the last gen because streaming becomes huge during the next decade and then it doesn't make sense anymore to sell consoles. This is not about numbers.

 

[darkistheway]

1. All going to keikaku. I think this is referring to their release schedule. Yes, I do believe their release schedule is going roughly as they planned it. Outside of a Pikmin delay, I've seen little to suggest that everything isn't going as planned with their release schedule.

2. Intend to wow "core" audience", then "casuals" later. Yes, I do believe this until any further evidence comes out. Close Partnerships with Platinum Studios, Capcom, Namco - Smash Brothers, 3D Mario, and Retro and Monolith both developing a core Nintendo title. That's about as much talent as Nintendo can leverage to go after the core audience. No word on Wii Sports U. That's a fact. You won't find anything outside if the Wii U introductory trailer. All signs pointing to a focus on their Nintendo-core audience, regardless of whether or not you think this will be effective overall.

3. "Graphical parity". No one knows as we've seen very little from Nintendo. I'm speculating. Just to make this even more non-offensive, I'm totally open to the idea that they will have amazing graphics later on in their lifespan. I'm talking only about the early lifespan of the consoles.

4. "Wishful thinking, not within reality of the situation'. I don't even know what to think about this one. You're clearly treading on wishful-thinking territory here as well. I disagree about it being poorly thought out. If this is true, it may be just as clever as the Wii.

I do agree with the broad outlines of what you saying... however, the question is not "If this is true, it may be just as clever as the Wii" but rather - "If this works, it may be just as clever as the Wii."

My theory is that Nintendo has always planned for Fall/Christmas 2013 to be the big push of the Wii U. I don't know why they are doing it this way - launching with Wii U Sports would have allowed them to sell directly to those Wii owners who absolutely adore that title. But you have to admit, their Wii U strategy currently is not working very well.

 

[Krilekk]

I noticed this last Christmas.
Many of the people around me requested a tablet over a console.
I will be shocked if ps4/Durango sells more than 50 million each.

You'd be stupid to want a console in its final year. Tablets offer more for the money right now and that will change next gen.

 

[darkistheway]

You'd be stupid to want a console in its final year.

Why? Because they are at a mass market price and have a vast library of games?

You are aware of the sales numbers for the PS2 after the PS3? the Xbox 360 last November?

 

[shinra-bansho]

1. All going to keikaku. I think this is referring to their release schedule. Yes, I do believe their release schedule is going roughly as they planned it. Outside of a Pikmin delay, I've seen little to suggest that everything isn't going as planned with their release schedule.

So they planned to have a barren launch period, wherein their sales plummeted to dying system levels. Sounds like a well-thought out plan. They clearly thought that both A) NSMBU and B) Nintendo Land, and their tablet USP, would be sufficient to sell the system to the audience they were targeting - the expanded audience. It's all quite clearly not going to plan considering a 1.5M downward revision of their fiscal unit forecast, which they still won't meet given current sell through numbers. All this nonsense people spout about a soft launch is belied by Nintendo's own stated intentions.

All signs pointing to a focus on their Nintendo-core audience, regardless of whether or not you think this will be effective overall.

That's a rather distinctly different thing than just "core" or mainstream traditional console market that one would target if they were "trying to pull an XBOX 360/PS3". Nintendo perhaps wanted to straddle both the core traditional audience and the casual expanded audience. Currently they're failing to get either. They are getting the, as you call it, "Nintendo-core" the market that buys a system just for Nintendo games; the market that sustained the N64 and GCN.

The system was clearly designed to try and appeal to the expanded audience that they brought in with the Wii; perhaps they thought having a few token titles like Ninja Gaiden was sufficient to attract the traditional audiences to their platform. But in lieu of a traditional generational performance increase they have opted for a tablet controller to try and replicate catching lightning in a bottle. It's a replication of the Wii; only it's not replicating the Wii's commercial performance.

I don't even know what to think about this one. You're clearly treading on wishful-thinking territory here as well. I disagree about it being poorly thought out. If this is true, it may be just as clever as the Wii.

The reality of the situation is outlined above. They created a console that performance-wise is in the league of the current gen HD systems; that they intended to sell on their tablet function; that isn't getting the same multiplatform support as those 7th gen systems, nor their successor systems. They launched it with a bridge title and a title that is designed to show off their tablet.

That is not a strategy aimed at the core/mainstream markets that the 360 and PS3 targeted and sold to. Those audiences are not upgrading to the Wii U; as they presumably don't see it as an upgrade. And again, if that was their strategy; it was a terrible one - as evidenced by the current situation.

 

[Xbudz]

Pachter - Next gen is last gen

The only way I agree with that is if he's talking in the sense that it was the previous generation.

Nintendo has enough money to make a new console after Wii U and it's not likely either MS or Sony will allow Nintendo or some other "standardised console-like PC hardware" to release something with a generation leap ahead of the competitors without making some sort hardware update.

I don't think we are 10 years away from a perfect cloud future, nor would I want that.
I want to give my old games and systems to my grandchilren without the worry of what cloud they need to enjoy them on.

Also don't forget about Sega, bitches. Watch out.

 

[darkistheway]

So they planned to have a barren launch period, wherein their sales plummeted to dying system levels. Sounds like a well-thought out plan. They clearly thought that both A) NSMBU and B) Nintendo Land, and their tablet USP, would be sufficient to sell the system to the audience they were targeting - the expanded audience. It's all quite clearly not going to plan considering a 1.5M downward revision of their fiscal unit forecast, which they still won't meet given current sell through numbers. All this nonsense people spout about a soft launch is belied by Nintendo's own stated intentions.That's a rather distinctly different thing than just "core" or mainstream traditional console market that one would target if they were "trying to pull an XBOX 360/PS3". Nintendo perhaps wanted to straddle both the core traditional audience and the casual expanded audience. Currently they're failing to get either. They are getting the, as you call it, "Nintendo-core" the market that buys a system just for Nintendo games; the market that sustained the N64 and GCN.

The system was clearly designed to try and appeal to the expanded audience that they brought in with the Wii; perhaps they thought having a few token titles like Ninja Gaiden was sufficient to attract the traditional audiences to their platform. But in lieu of a traditional generational performance increase they have opted for a tablet controller to try and replicate catching lightning in a bottle. It's a replication of the Wii; only it's not replicating the Wii's commercial performance.
The reality of the situation is outlined above. They created a console that performance-wise is in the league of the current gen HD systems; that they intended to sell on their tablet function; that isn't getting the same multiplatform support as those 7th gen systems, nor their successor systems. They launched it with a bridge title and a title that is designed to show off their tablet.

That is not a strategy aimed at the core/mainstream markets that the 360 and PS3 targeted and sold to. Those audiences are not upgrading to the Wii U; as they presumably don't see it as an upgrade. And again, if that was their strategy; it was a terrible one - as evidenced by the current situation.

You know, as I think about it, I get the feeling that Nintendo doesn't really have a firm grasp on their audience. They are terrified to go for Nintendo-core because that leads to Gamecube numbers and, based on the Wii die-off that happened, they must be terrified about going for the casual market as it is fickle and fragmented. Going for 'hardcore' is scary because it means they have to compete directly with Microsoft and Sony who can and will outspend Nintendo on any front.

I think in order to remain relevant (outside of profitable) Nintendo needs to grow much larger and much more global. Their dominance in the handheld market is based on their ability to produce hits almost at will. They have the talent and the IPs; they need to have a relentless software release schedule for the Wii U to have a chance.

 

[+Aliken+]

Here are is my Nostradamus prediction.

The next Xbox will still be initially considered a console however will be very PC like, even more than the Ps4.
A couple of years down the line people will actually see things more clearly and at that point things will fall in the following categories: PC / Consoles / PC Boxes.

PC and Consoles are obvious, PC Boxes are things like the upcoming Steam Box and what the next Xbox will be.
Consoles will be Wii U and Ps4 (even though the Ps4 has many similarities to a PC Box).

 

[wildfire]

Hahah.... Not only could anyone from gaf pull those slides from their behind, why is he expecting growth? Ah right because he is akways wrong.

I suggest you redo your math. His figures show an overall decline for all three consoles combined compared to last generation.

 

[darkistheway]

I suggest you redo your math. His figures show an overall decline for all three consoles combined compared to last generation.

But he is calling for growth in the Xbox business and the Playstation business. That is the growth people are (rightfully) scoffing at.

 

[shinra-bansho]

But he is calling for growth in the Xbox business and the Playstation business. That is the growth people are (rightfully) scoffing at.

By the end of the next fiscal year (Mar 31st 2014) both the 360 and PS3 will likely be north of 90M; so no, he's not necessarily predicting growth.

 

[farnham]

You know, as I think about it, I get the feeling that Nintendo doesn't really have a firm grasp on their audience. They are terrified to go for Nintendo-core because that leads to Gamecube numbers and, based on the Wii die-off that happened, they must be terrified about going for the casual market as it is fickle and fragmented. Going for 'hardcore' is scary because it means they have to compete directly with Microsoft and Sony who can and will outspend Nintendo on any front.

I think in order to remain relevant (outside of profitable) Nintendo needs to grow much larger and much more global. Their dominance in the handheld market is based on their ability to produce hits almost at will. They have the talent and the IPs; they need to have a relentless software release schedule for the Wii U to have a chance.

Sony cant outspend nintendo anymore, their financial rating makes lending money difficult and very expensive (double digit of interest rates)

 

[darkistheway]

By the end of the next fiscal year (Mar 31st 2014) both the 360 and PS3 will likely be north of 90M; so no, he's not necessarily predicting growth.

Wouldn't that require those two consoles doing ~1 million a month for the next year? Is that likely?

Sony cant outspend nintendo anymore, their financial rating makes lending money difficult and very expensive (double digit of interest rates)

That wouldn't stop Sony. Besides, just competing with Microsoft would be hard for Nintendo. MS has already shown they'll spend billions in this race.

 

[Coolwhip]

You know, as I think about it, I get the feeling that Nintendo doesn't really have a firm grasp on their audience. They are terrified to go for Nintendo-core because that leads to Gamecube numbers and, based on the Wii die-off that happened, they must be terrified about going for the casual market as it is fickle and fragmented. Going for 'hardcore' is scary because it means they have to compete directly with Microsoft and Sony who can and will outspend Nintendo on any front.

I think in order to remain relevant (outside of profitable) Nintendo needs to grow much larger and much more global. Their dominance in the handheld market is based on their ability to produce hits almost at will. They have the talent and the IPs; they need to have a relentless software release schedule for the Wii U to have a chance.

I still see people having fun with Wii Sports. Nintendo should have just gone for a Wii 2, make those people upgrade for "even better" motion controls in HD. And just throw in an improved Wavebird for traditional games. It would have made a lot more sense than Wii U.

 

[darkistheway]

I still see people having fun with Wii Sports. Nintendo should have just gone for a Wii 2, make those people upgrade for "even better" motion controls in HD. And just throw in an improved Wavebird for traditional games. It would have made a lot more sense than Wii U.

I agree. Somewhat. The shine had probably gone off the Wii when the decision would have had to have been made about the successor.

I don't really think the Gamepad 'innovation' is why people aren't buying the Wii U, although it is affecting the BOM.

 

[undrtakr900]

Wii U not innovative enough.

PS4 RAM makes innovation likely.

Pacter always had a hard-on for Playstation, he's always so optimistic when talking about them.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Sony cant outspend nintendo anymore, their financial rating makes lending money difficult and very expensive (double digit of interest rates)

That's not what corporate credit ratings are related to as far as I'm aware...

Wouldn't that require those two consoles doing ~1 million a month for the next year? Is that likely?

For the last three fiscal years Sony have done an average of about 13.5M PS3's. I expect some sort of 32GB flash only model some time in the US and Japan this year for sub-$200/20K yen, to mitigate declines. They should be at or around 75M as at Dec 31st 2012, so I don't think 90M by Mar 31st 2014 is too bullish.

Microsoft also have room to move on price, and have been 10M+ a year, so they'll be close to 90M, and over Pachter's minimum for Durango in the same timeframe.

 

[darkistheway]

For the last three fiscal years Sony have done an average of about 13.5M PS3's. I expect some sort of 32GB flash only model some time in the US and Japan this year for sub-$200/20K yen, to mitigate declines. They should be at or around 75M as at Dec 31st 2012, so I don't think 90M by Mar 31st 2014 is too bullish.

Microsoft also have room to move on price, and have been 10M+ a year, so they'll be close to 90M, and over Pachter's minimum for Durango in the same timeframe.

Cool, thanks.

I guess it does makes sense on that timeframe. I guess I still think of console generations as five years

 

[limaCAT]

He simply got too late on the wizard jizz/orbis>wiiu>durango bandwagon.

 

[Manmademan]

Cool, thanks.

I guess it does makes sense on that timeframe. I guess I still think of console generations as five years

generations before a new one shows up are usually around 5 years. this one is longer.

successful console LIFESPANS are way longer. the master system, neo geo, snes, ps1, ps2, and the nes all sold for close to or over 10 years before being pulled.

 

[Atomski]

Here are is my Nostradamus prediction.

The next Xbox will still be initially considered a console however will be very PC like, even more than the Ps4.
A couple of years down the line people will actually see things more clearly and at that point things will fall in the following categories: PC / Consoles / PC Boxes.

PC and Consoles are obvious, PC Boxes are things like the upcoming Steam Box and what the next Xbox will be.
Consoles will be Wii U and Ps4 (even though the Ps4 has many similarities to a PC Box).

I dont understand how people think xbox will be more PC like.. that would mean the platform would be more open which just isnt going to happen.

 

[FyreWulff]

"The next console generation will be the last, so we'll predict that every console will outperform their last console and the Wii U will still outperform the Super Nintendo, N64 and GameCube"

The Wii U doing 50 million seems like a reasonable estimation honestly. It'd even put it above Gamecube levels.

But I'm a bit disappointed in that there's a lack of skepticism in how well next-gen console launch windows will perform. Saying that the PS4 is going to do 100m lifetime sales with the only reason of it doing well being pretty much "it's got RAM in it" seems about as well thought out as the 240fps @ 1080p statement.

The only Nintendo home consoles that have sold more than 50 million are the NES and the Wii. Unsurprisingly, these were their two most simple consoles to control and had massive casual appeal, and were the 'hot toy' of their time.

If the Wii U sells 50 million, Nintendo wouldn't have anything to cry about at all.

 

[Jigolo]

$70 = no more day 1 for me

 

[darkistheway]

generations before a new one shows up are usually around 5 years. this one is longer.

successful console LIFESPANS are way longer. the master system, neo geo, snes, ps1, ps2, and the nes all sold for close to or over 10 years before being pulled.

I'm not an idiot

I realize the lifespans are longer but my understanding that only the Playstation brand continued to sell in significant numbers past their 'generation' timeline.

If the PS3 continues this trend, then it will be probably get to well beyond 100 million - in which case a lifetime sell-through of the PS4 of 85 million would be quite bad.

 

[Road]

http://www.abload.de/img/duhlines7guil.gif

Fixed it for you.

 

[Manmademan]

I'm not an idiot

I realize the lifespans are longer but my understanding that only the Playstation brand continued to sell in significant numbers past their 'generation' timeline.

If the PS3 continues this trend, then it will be probably get to well beyond 100 million - in which case a lifetime sell-through of the PS4 of 85 million would be quite bad.

your understanding is wrong. all of the consoles I listed still sold significant numbers after their replacements showed up. the neo is a special case there though.

the reasoning for this is because companies use the declining years to target the budget market that can't afford a console over $99, and overseas markets like Latin America.

the ps3 is still 269, and hasn't reached either of these groups yet. Sony recently also got permission to start selling in China, iirc. with a price reduction it will hit 100 million very easily.

 

[Projectjustice]

 

[Projectjustice]

Wow people are actually saying 8GB of ram is innovation. lol

 

[Valhelm]

Isn't it possible that the "Console DS" factor of the WiiU could ultimately increase its longevity?

Every manifestation of the Nintendo DS has sold moderately or extremely well, and the two-screens factor of the WiiU accounts for well over half of its appeal.

 

[stryke]

Wow people are actually saying 8GB of ram is innovation. lol

I don't think anyone said that 8GB ram is inherently innovative. How developers use it might be.

 

[i-Lo]

Wow people are actually saying 8GB of ram is innovation. lol

Well in a way it is true.

• Current gen consoles had player restriction in MP side of things compared to PC (BF3 is a good example). Perhaps Planetside 2 can finally break through that limit now on PS4.
• Innovation in terms of better underpinnings of games to increase immersion (animation, physics, etc)
• Given that this was the gen where properly moving levels (GoW3/A) were made possible due to processing power and RAM, who knows what the devs can cook up for next gen in time
• Other ancillary non gaming features can be also seen as innovative

etc

So in conjunction with the new CPU and GPU that amount of RAM (minus OS reserve) will play an equally vital role.

 

[Manmademan]

Wow people are actually saying 8GB of ram is innovation. lol

they're not saying that. they're saying that developers have been hamstrung by 512 megs of ram for a while, and that stifled innovation. there were too many things that simply couldn't be done due to hardware restrictions.

increasing ram to 8 gigs is more than most PCs make use of. The sky is basically the limit at the moment and they're free to experiment.

(yes, I'm aware high end rigs can have more than 8 gigs of ram, but no one is requiring 8 gigs of free ram to run a game right now. After the next gen launch this will change. )

 

[yurinka]

How do you figure this as well?

The PS2/Xbox/GC sold for ~195 million worldwide.

The PS3/360/Wii are at ~247 million worldwide.

Now when you take out the casuals that got on the Wii train it probably does drop below last generation, but to call it a big decline is a bit of a stretch.

The current gen still isn't over. PS3 is still over $200, it's very likely to end outselling the Wii. Still have some big games to come, price cuts, a lot of future great old content at a cheap price in PS+ (old PS2, PS3, PS1 games) which would be great for emerging markets, multiplatforms/ports with Vita and WiiU, etc.

Btw, is you remove the casuals from Wii then you also have to remove the casuals from PS2 who played Eyetoy, Singstar, Buzz, Guitar Hero, etc. I think it isn't fair.

I think this gen there has been a massive growth in the consoles market and not only because of the Wii, because it's likely to end 2nd. And the 3rd wouldn't end too far.

Wow people are actually saying 8GB of ram is innovation. lol

No, Patcher said 'RAM makes innovation likely' which is true.
Devs are always constrained by RAM, and to have a lot of super fast RAM is great.
It will allow to do a lot of new graphical and physics tricks for high end games, less enemy repetition and will make easier to develop from low end creative indie games.
And well, consider that if current non high-end PCs sometimes can't move multi games at the same fps and details than 512MB consoles (my high end laptop struggles with RE6), it will be way more difficult for them to compete vs 8GB of GDDR5, which is way better than normal main PC RAM (not just in quantity).

 

[PandaL]

next gen hasn't even started yet and he already talks about the end.

 

[watershed]

I'm sure its been discussed already but if he is projecting such high sales for the ps4 and Durango then why is next gen gonna be the last gen?