The LTDs are that high because their lives are indefinite, i.e. they'll hit 85-95 million because they'll be the only consoles for 15 years +.
Its not that they'll sell so well and thus won't be the last generation, but rather since they're the last generation the will sell very well.
I'm confused why its the last gen yet sells more then the current gen..
Well its not really growth. He shows WiiU dropping more than half of Wii's installed based.
Using his numbers PS3+360+Wii is less than WiiU+PS4+720.
I think any of the consoles selling 50m might be stretching it
Why does Pachter keep predicting doom for Nintendo, taking it back, then doing it again?
I really doubt Wii U will sell worse than Ps4/Durango and I doubt it will be Nintendo's last console. Sony/Ms's last consoles? I think that could be quite possible, but I am sure Nintendo who have a dedicated hardware development team certainly aren't done yet
I don't see why growth is unreasonable, I think this time you're going to see more effort in emerging markets. Plus what someone else said about them being on the market longer and thus selling for longer also would apply to the prediction.Yeah I realize that but I'm not really counting Wii in this case.
I suppose I should have specified the hardcore gaming market. Clearly much of the wii casual market has moved on. I just don't see the PS4/Durango doing that much better than their predecessors.
Is Pachter ever right? Remember all the years he spent saying Wii HD was coming out?
Then he says Wii HD isn't coming and the WiiU comes out. And everything he does predict is super obvious to anyone who follows games.
Wii HD not coming out was a mistake (or rather, waiting until 2012 to make it and asking $350 for it was a mistake).
Is Pachter ever right? Remember all the years he spent saying Wii HD was coming out?
Then he says Wii HD isn't coming and the WiiU comes out. And everything he does predict is super obvious to anyone who follows games.
Its hard to read/hear his predictions as gaming enthusiasts yes. Who is Pachters audience though?
Because if you take away the Wii anomality there was a big decline this gen compared to last. Now in a world with a lot more entertainment options, any sensible person would expect a decline in the coming gen. But not Pachter.
How are they going to change the WiiU at this point? He is talking about the WiiU.
Wii U not innovative enough.
PS4 RAM makes innovation likely.
How do you figure this as well?
The PS2/Xbox/GC sold for ~195 million worldwide.
The PS3/360/Wii are at ~247 million worldwide.
Now when you take out the casuals that got on the Wii train it probably does drop below last generation, but to call it a big decline is a bit of a stretch.
Without a doubt.Will we refer back to that image in 2018 and laugh?
The LTDs are that high because their lives are indefinite, i.e. they'll hit 85-95 million because they'll be the only consoles for 15 years +.
Its not that they'll sell so well and thus won't be the last generation, but rather since they're the last generation the will sell very well.
Yes, posting from our iWatches and iGlasses.
How do you figure this as well?
The PS2/Xbox/GC sold for ~195 million worldwide.
The PS3/360/Wii are at ~247 million worldwide.
Now when you take out the casuals that got on the Wii train it probably does drop below last generation, but to call it a big decline is a bit of a stretch.
Xbox and PS4 will both have 8GB.
200-250m consoles sold, how will that be the last generation?
Wouldn't slower RAM for the Xbox 3 have basically the same effect of not being able to take advantage completely of PS4's RAM to utilize whatever innovation could possible come out of it? I'm not a tech person, but then again, neither is Pachter.
Besides, it's listed specifically in the PS4 section.
And ignoring potential platform differences, I'm not sure what major innovations are supposed to come from the RAM but I haven't looked into it much so there may be a lot I guess.
Think about how much has changed in terms of the buying habits/trends of consumer electronics in the past 6-7 years. A lot can happen over the course of a lifecycle.
I don't see why growth is unreasonable, I think this time you're going to see more effort in emerging markets. Plus what someone else said about them being on the market longer and thus selling for longer also would apply to the prediction.
That said, I don't know if I think this is really the last generation coming up.
How do you figure this as well?
The DC/PS2/Xbox/GC sold for ~205 million worldwide.
The PS3/360/Wii are at ~247 million worldwide.
Now when you take out the casuals that got on the Wii train it probably does drop below last generation, but to call it a big decline is a bit of a stretch.
I actually think those sales predictions are decent.
Cloud gaming perhaps?200-250m consoles sold, how will that be the last generation?
Now when you take out the casuals that got on the Wii train it probably does drop below last generation, but to call it a big decline is a bit of a stretch.
That on depends how many of the 100 million Wii owners are casuals.
Take out a lot of the casuals who owned a PS3/360 as well unless you seriously think there was anywhere near 150 million core gamers who bought the PS3/360. Sure the core gamer base for consoles will be around but as more and more alternatives pop up to consoles we will see their relevance dwindle as we've seen handhelds dwindle.
That on depends how many of the 100 million Wii owners are casuals.
Gemüsepizza;49584858 said:I think the WiiU numbers make sense, but I expect those Xbox 3 numbers to be a lot lower, maybe around 50 millions, and PS4 at 100 millions. I can't see many people buying the Xbox 3 if the specs are true. Word of mouth will be important, people will know that the PS4 is stronger. I think Sony has a good chance to get back to PS2 form. Generally, his PS4 and Xbox numbers seem like a safe bet, but I just don't see how the PS4 and Xbox 3 could have nearly the same sale numbers, when they will be so different compared to current gen, and start at the same time.