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Pachter - Next gen is last gen; projected console sales figures; Xbox to win next gen
- Thread starter Wario64
- Start date
Not really. Those numbers seem to be about as safe a prediction as possible.
The Hermit
Member
I think this is the first time I ever agree with Patcher... At least it will be the last gen of consoles as we know it. Nintendo will probably go portable only, since mobile games are becoming more and more relevant than console games.
Also, This SimCity always online-DRM backfire is just the beggining... Honestly I have few reasons to own a nextgen console besides exclusives.
Also, This SimCity always online-DRM backfire is just the beggining... Honestly I have few reasons to own a nextgen console besides exclusives.
BruiserBear
Banned
First thought that crossed my mind. The real question though is why does anyone give two shits what Pachter says at this point. It might be the single biggest mystery to me in the gaming world today.
MikeE21286
Member
I think the idea that it is the last gen definitely holds weight.
But it needs context.
What is it that will replace consoles? I don't think they just vanish. Something will have to fill the void/need.
But it needs context.
What is it that will replace consoles? I don't think they just vanish. Something will have to fill the void/need.
They won't be the last generation, why would they be if they sell big?. No, consoles will be here for years to come imo and its just more doom and gloom from these so called 'experts' just like they have said PC gaming is about to die for the past 20 years now, mobile phones were going to destroy the handheld gaming market and it never happened and the list goes on.
Things like tablets will at best be another platform for games like the 360, PS3 and WiiU, they will never take over consoles until things like Halo, COD and GTA etc can play on them and play well and that won't ever happen with a silly touch screen and low power.
Manmademan
Member
disgree here, because by all indications the gamers that were brought on for singstar, buzz, guitar hero etc. were retained by the ps3 and xbox 360. (there's been an increase between PS2 + xbox at this point, and ps3 + xbox at this point)
The casual audience targeted by the wii seems to have abandoned it entirely.
KungFucius
King Snowflake
He predicts moderate growth at the high end and then predicts that nobody will try again for another round. Weird.
Manmademan
Member
these are lifetime numbers. this would be a decline, not growth.
yurinka
Member
True, but it's also true that Nintendo still have to release a lot of games for WiiU which would help it with both their fanbase and casuals. I agree his WiiU estimate despite of the low start.
But I also think this 720 and specially PS4 estimate is way low, because there are a number of non-Nintendo fanboys hardcore gamers who purchased a Wii expecting the same experience and games than in HD consoles. I think this time they will skip WiiU and will move to PS4 and 360 instead to make sure they don't miss the high end hardcore games.
I think this time PS4 won't have insane pricing at launch, won't have shitty ports because it will be powerful but won't be difficult to develop for, and will take benefit of the extra sales due to social networks virality and extra sales coming from the stream to other devices. More freedom in pricing and being more open and easy to develop for will increase a lot PS4 dev support, which also will help sales. Things that most of them also would be applied to 720 but not to WiiU, which main selling point will be Nintendo games and some few moneyhatted 3rd party exclusives, since 2nd screen stuff is very likely to be done in both PS4 and 720 too, and better.
I think Nintendo will decrease vs Wii but still do a decent job, Xbox will have similar numbers to this gen and Sony will increase their numbers specially in the first years.
BuggyDClown
Member
So are the TV tuner rumors for Xbox solid enough to assume it's in? It's a HUGE feature for me. I love the prospect of it.
yurinka
Member
I think it's going to be an app to use it as remote control / tv guide, something that I think is going to be in PS4 and WiiU too.
Sony showcased it in CES for other devices, and Nintendo has it in WiiU. Maybe it would have the possibility of saving tv stuff in your HDD as PS3 adaptor did en EU and Japan, which isn't a big deal.
Competing against Microsoft and Sony isn't exactly a walk in the park. Why would Nintendo going up against Microsoft alone be any harder than that? And yes, Microsoft has shown that they're willing to lose billions in this race. Guess what? At best, they were still second place in hardware sales.
The ability to spend gobs of money is nice; it's a great attribute to have. But it doesn't matter unless you're spending it in the right way. Surface is an example of that.
darkistheway
Member
Sure, against the PS2 and the Wii. Nintendo can't spend the same money as Microsoft nor can they be assured of Wii-like success (clearly, see the Wii U).
It's pure economics. Microsoft can throw money at the problem; Nintendo cannot.
darkistheway
Member
When you say significant, what do you mean?
I understand how they do it but the PSone sold 28 million while the PS2 was out - that is significant.
What are the other numbers like?
grimshawish
Banned
PS4 and Durango won't be that high; not at the same time.
PS4 could be and higher, but Durango will lose sales as a consequence.
In that way the sales predictions strike me as 'odd'. Would love to see the working.
PS4 could be and higher, but Durango will lose sales as a consequence.
In that way the sales predictions strike me as 'odd'. Would love to see the working.
TAS
Member
Those numbers are bollocks. The console gaming market is shrinking. There is no way numbers will be higher next generation for any of the three.
Is there actually any proof of that happening?, seriously because i can't imagine that many gamers (especially hardcore gamers) moving from onsoles to play games on their phones or I-Pads, i just can't.
Imo you can't use the WiiU sales as evidence because all it is is evidence of consumers waking up to Nintendos bullshit and sales of PS360 going down (if they even are, i have no clue) will be more to do with this gen winding down and people ready for next gen.
It's happening alright. Just a slow death.
And yet this console generation has seen more consoles sold than any previous generation.
Coffee Dog
Banned
You are vastly underestimating how much money Nintendo has.
Not Spaceghost
Spaceghost
Considering how long this current gen lasted, and how graphics technology is rapidly peaking I can really buy next gen being the last gen or at least lasting almost a decade and a half before even needing to upgrade. There doesn't really seem like there is anywhere to go. The PC will remain the enthusiasts choice for visuals and performance but next gen consoles are definitely looking like they're going to be around for a long fucking time.
Also you know, I think if devs focused less on "next gen" graphics being a selling points and instead just prettied up current gen visuals a tiny bit they could really put all this new power at their disposal to making 60 fps a new standard.
Also you know, I think if devs focused less on "next gen" graphics being a selling points and instead just prettied up current gen visuals a tiny bit they could really put all this new power at their disposal to making 60 fps a new standard.
Canis lupus
Member
PS2 sold more than 50m this gen.
Interesting, both machines got 20-30% of their total install base after their bigger brother came out. I anticipate Sony will ship a total of 95-100m PS3 units given that 20-30% of its sales will come after PS4 comes out.
But if money is the entire method by which a business competition is resolved, why would the PS2 or Wii have mattered at all? You're discussing one side of competition and completely ignoring others. And don't bring up 'economics' in order to lend authority to your presumption: What you're saying has been proven wrong in every single industry on earth and countless times over, with the lone exception of a monopoly within a market (such as Standard Oil).
EDIT: And what's impressive is that Standard Oil was a very innovative company on top of breaking competitors' backs with its money.
His numbers are bullshit. Nintendo will probably end up in first or second place at the end of this next generation. It's also bullshit to assume the PS4/720 will have similar numbers, especially when we don't know the prices/negative features of said devices that may deter people from purchasing them (aka dealbreakers).
Jokes and Riddles
Neo Member
At the beginning of the last gen. Who did Pachter predict as the winner?
darkistheway
Member
No, I'm not. I know what they have
We were talking about consoles other than the Playstations.
Haha, no.
I bet the 3DS will be huge for Nintendo and will sell incredibly well, going from strength to strength throughout the next generation but the WiiU, not so much. It won't be another Gamecube for Nintendo but it'll never get anywhere near Wii numbers.
Also, I like that his slide says <$599 for PS4 price. Like, of course it will be?
I'm sticking to my guns and saying it'll be $399.99 at launch (£300 in the UK) and Xbox will likely follow suit.
daemissary
Member
Everyone just saying to do the math on the total gen sales is way off base here. You can't just say 247m vs 240m is projecting a decline when the actual gaming consoles are both increasing and the Wii -> Wii U is accounting for the entire loss.
If the Durango and PS4 both sell more than their predecessors, that isn't a decline in Microsoft and Sony's eyes and there is no way they'd leave the console making business.
AZ Greg
Member
I don't want to go to far off on the current gen sales predictions tangent, but thinking 15 million more for the HD twins isn't likely is completely ignoring the market that always jumps in late when consoles get down to $99-$149. Just look at how much the PS2 sold after the release of the PS3. And no, a repeate of that situation doesn't mean the PS4 will be the "ultimate bomba extraordinaire". In its first January after launch the PS3 sold 244k while the PS2 still sold 299k. PS2 doing well didn't cause the PS3 to get anywhere near 57k levels of bad. And there is no reason to assume a still selling PS3 would do it to the PS4.
But the main point I was making in the original post of yours that I quoted was that you were implying that the Pachter predicted numbers for the PS4/720 were only possible if they became "heavily casual market machines like the Wii". But that isn't the case at all as the 360/PS3 prove since they will end near those numbers without being like the Wii either.
Of course they would. Finally beating your most stubborn opponent into submission and improving on your performance from one product to the next is the definition of when to pull out.
When did the PC as a "gaming device" ever go away?
But seriously if Microsoft would stop region locking some countries out of Xbox Live ( for god's sake Microsoft, you have a whole company in Luxembourg but still no real Xbox Live? ) then they'd make a killing.
It happened to me so often that I had to use a VPN to buy a game. Also I don't want french TV Apps. Get your shit together.
But seriously if Microsoft would stop region locking some countries out of Xbox Live ( for god's sake Microsoft, you have a whole company in Luxembourg but still no real Xbox Live? ) then they'd make a killing.
It happened to me so often that I had to use a VPN to buy a game. Also I don't want french TV Apps. Get your shit together.
That is a second point that has zero bearing on the argument we are making that you can't say Pachter doesn't see a decline in overall console sales.
Personally I don't disagree with your second point but if you actually want an elaboration on the thought process just follow Pachter on Twitter and ask him a question. He has a tendency of answering most questions asked if you follow his Twitter account.
Participating in circle jerking critical thinking discussion won't give you any meaningful answers. Just go to the source if you care enough to learn.
grimshawish
Banned
infiniteheteroskdasticity
Member
I cover the digital entertainment space for a hedge fund and these numbers are not at all unreasonable. If anything, they might be too low. I fully expect that once the music stops, the current generation will be in the 280 - 300m LTD sales range. I think the next generation has a reasonable shot at exceeding those numbers. One has to remember that this generation barely has any penetration in China where consoles are currently quasi banned. I expect that to change at some point in the near future opening up a huge new market with at least 50m genuine customers.
I fully expect Sony to do very well indeed because they appear to have addressed their weaknesses this generation (high launch MSRP, poor early multiplats) and focused on enhancing their strengths (strong first party and high attach rates).
Microsoft should be fine as well - they might lose some share in NA and the UK back to Sony (more a mean reversion than anything else) but they should have the best chance in the Chinese market. The other two are Japanese firms. Given the current political climate in East Asia Microsoft stands a great chance as positioning itself as the only non Japanese option. Their focus on TV services should help them attract more non gamers to the platform.
Pachter really is right about Nintendo. The Wii was lightning in a bottle. It allowed them to keep the core Nintendo faithful but also bring in a huge following of casuals. The latter are increasingly deserting them for mobile devices and the former while a solid base, are not really growing much. Given its graphical weaknesses and the increasingly poor 3rd party situation, core gamers are not going to care very much. Once the PS3 and the XBox 360 start slowing down in a year or two, I don't think 3rd parties will bother with the WiiU at all.
I fully expect Sony to do very well indeed because they appear to have addressed their weaknesses this generation (high launch MSRP, poor early multiplats) and focused on enhancing their strengths (strong first party and high attach rates).
Microsoft should be fine as well - they might lose some share in NA and the UK back to Sony (more a mean reversion than anything else) but they should have the best chance in the Chinese market. The other two are Japanese firms. Given the current political climate in East Asia Microsoft stands a great chance as positioning itself as the only non Japanese option. Their focus on TV services should help them attract more non gamers to the platform.
Pachter really is right about Nintendo. The Wii was lightning in a bottle. It allowed them to keep the core Nintendo faithful but also bring in a huge following of casuals. The latter are increasingly deserting them for mobile devices and the former while a solid base, are not really growing much. Given its graphical weaknesses and the increasingly poor 3rd party situation, core gamers are not going to care very much. Once the PS3 and the XBox 360 start slowing down in a year or two, I don't think 3rd parties will bother with the WiiU at all.
StealthGoblin
Banned
So what if Sony get Google TV in their box? Microsoft were expecting it.
Sure you can say it's due to people waking up to "Nintendo's bullshit", but that doesn't suddenly mean they're all going to jump on to the Sony/Microsoft offerings. What's more than likely, and is what many are assuming, is that they'll disappear and maybe show up at the second half of the cycle to pick up whichever system ended up with the most diverse
catalog and a reasonable price (example: ps2).
So you're saying that his numbers will be correct if they're able to push into an entirely new market. Assuming they don't, there will be a contraction of overall sales.
So you're saying that all this information that is given to investors to help them decide where to take their money is useless? The goal for Pachter is not to appease the gaming community but give a prediction of where the industry is trending. He is not the only person that does this.
I think his LTD estimates are going to fall right in line with what will happen. I can see this next generation lasting longer than this one if there is going to be a media /social push from each side. So I think we'll see a 12 year plan with the consoles not being replaced until year 9-10.
D
Deleted member 80556
Unconfirmed Member
This is... Certainly something.
I guess we'll see. But it just seems that he's not being partial. Nintendo having apparently less sales than MS and Sony but they're still 'King' in software? Unless there's a repeat from this gen, but looking at the Wii U sales, I don't think that will be the case in the same proportion. I'd be glad to be wrong though about Nintendo.
Are they not also considering that Sony has already PS4 preorders coming in? That has to help somehow, we'll see by E3 (with the release date info) if he can be right. But if the PS4 launches first, at the same price or similar, I will have a hard time believing his analysis.
grimshawish
Banned
Nintendo software is king. E.g. still one of the biggest publishers but I suspect here he is mostly only talking in comparison to other first party titles from MS and Sony.
You're like making up an argument for me with this, why? I wasn't talking about launch period when I said Nintendo was aiming at the hardcore through Holiday 13' to '14. That's post launch. I think Nintendo aimed for a general mix of the Holiday crowd, gamers, families, etc to help start out the console launch period. I'm trying to say that I think their next strategy is to get the hardcore gamers on the platform, through '13 to '14 for reasons I've already mentioned in the last message. After that, once they have the large amount of software on the platform, that they'll try to chase the Wii audience again. It's the Xbox360 / PS3 strategy and it gets them the best of both audiences.
infiniteheteroskdasticity
Member
I'm saying his numbers are too low if they manage the Chinese expansion. That has to happen. I don't see how the Chinese continue to ban game consoles for ever. They already allow tablets and smartphones and turn a blind eye to grey market consoles so it makes sense for them to allow console sales and get some revenue out of the whole thing.
Without that they're probably in the ballpark. Slightly lower than this gen for MSFT and SNE and a 50% drop for Nintendo.