Sure, but we have a guy in KSwizz who is really good a crunching numbers and projecting plausible outcomes (come to the BO threads and watch him work). Case in point, dude was accurately predicting the performance of F8 vs. F7 almost a year out with scary accuracy.
Conversely, everything you are posting about expectations of performance are based on how you feel.
Not even close to the same but you are entitled to post just like everyone else.
Which plays into what I'm saying...it's impossible to know right now.Honestly, 2020 is so far away that trying to predict a gross at this point is sort of meaningless. Where will the USD be in 3.5 years? Where will the Chinese box office be in 3.5 years? Those two things could mean the difference of well over $500M, everything else being equal.
Well, what he said was actually:
Which plays into what I'm saying...it's impossible to know right now.
Well, what he said was actually:
Which plays into what I'm saying...it's impossible to know right now.
That was just a hypothetical. I don't think that Avatar 2 will drop 60% from the first film outside of China. Maybe if it ends up being terrible, or if they had changed filmmakers between entries. I was just trying to point out that big drops in most territories could still lead to a big number.
The Exchange Rate will be a major factor. Avatar made $2B overseas. That would be closer to $1650M with today's rates. That's $350M gone because the dollar is currently strong. Who knows what 3.5 years from now will look like.
Also, I have no clue what the Chinese market will look like in 3.5 years, or how Avatar will be viewed there. Based on the last three years, it seems evident that China can have an enduring interest in franchises that have lost their lustre elsewhere. Look at XXX 3. Or Resident Evil 6. Or Terminator Genisys. Avatar also tripled the all-time box office record in China back in 2010, so the original was huge there. Comparatively moreso than it was domestically. Even with rapid growths in the Chinese Market, it took 4 years for something else to top it (Transformers Age of Extinction). For all I know, a gross equal to the original's domestic take will be feasible in China by the time Avatar 2 releases. At the same time, perhaps that is wildly optimistic, and something like $400M is more likely. No one knows.
That was just a hypothetical. I don't think that Avatar 2 will drop 60% from the first film outside of China. Maybe if it ends up being terrible, or if they had changed filmmakers between entries. I was just trying to point out that big drops in most territories could still lead to a big number.
The Exchange Rate will be a major factor. Avatar made $2B overseas. That would be closer to $1650M with today's rates. That's $350M gone because the dollar is currently strong. Who knows what 3.5 years from now will look like.
Also, I have no clue what the Chinese market will look like in 3.5 years, or how Avatar will be viewed there. Based on the last three years, it seems evident that China can have an enduring interest in franchises that have lost their lustre elsewhere. Look at XXX 3. Or Resident Evil 6. Or Terminator Genisys. Avatar also tripled the all-time box office record in China back in 2010, so the original was huge there. Comparatively moreso than it was domestically. Even with rapid growths in the Chinese Market, it took 4 years for something else to top it (Transformers Age of Extinction). For all I know, a gross equal to the original's domestic take will be feasible in China by the time Avatar 2 releases. At the same time, perhaps that is wildly optimistic, and something like $400M is more likely. No one knows.
I am disagreeing with people who believe it's a foregone conclusion this film will be one of the highest grossing films of all time due to the first one being the highest grossing film of all time.
I'm sure many people are looking forward to that date.
Watch Star Wars Episode 8 come out that same month and they delay it again.
Episode 8 is out this year. Han Solo is out 2018. Episode 9 is out 2019.Watch Star Wars Episode 8 come out that same month and they delay it again.
So Cameron can start work on the new Terminator now right?
Or maybe he saw Alita post-production works and hate it, so he decide to employ Avatar techs.
snip
The truth is, in these sister threads, there is no conversation to be had. Mostly because, as you said, people aren't interested in talking about the film but rather how the film made/makes them feel
If it's the Obi Wan movie, it would destroy Avatar, yeah. Not a doubt in my mind.
What I wouldn't give for an Avatar story speculation thread as well mannered as other franchises here on GAF. At least the actually TALK about SW and comic book stuff in those threads amongst the expected tomfoolery.
Originally when Avatar 2 was anounced Cameron said it would be more about Pandora's Oceans and a lot of the movie would be about exploring it. Given the amount of delays and anouncement of trilogies, I imagine the plot has changed significantly. With that said I hope they continue to explore Pandora. As I found the unique world, creatures and background of the Na'vi. I'd like it if they continued to do that for the future titles.There's nothing stopping you from turning this thread into that, what are expecting for a storyline?
I'd like to see them continue to address real world issues that face our planet. It's probably too on the nose to have the planet heating up from the human's technology, say stations in lower orbit impacting that atmosphere. How to address that in terms of story would be difficult to solve an issue like ocean levels rising or droughts, whatever impact you decide to focus on.
In terms, of the Avatar program it will be interesting to see the advancements they make. Could there be an infiltrate and sabotage from the inside theme or the ability to access the neural networks of the various lifeforms remotely.
It is kind of hard to talk about it since there are so many directions they can go with this world and there's not a rich history to draw from the way other franchises you mentioned can.
Originally when Avatar 2 was anounced Cameron said it would be more about Pandora's Oceans and a lot of the movie would be about exploring it. Given the amount of delays and anouncement of trilogies, I imagine the plot has changed significantly. With that said I hope they continue to explore Pandora. As I found the unique world, creatures and background of the Na'vi. I'd like it if they continued to do that for the future titles.
I suspect humans will not play the main adversary in all movies.
Avatar 2 doesn't have that fervent fanbase that is salivating for a new movie in the same way.
But that is talking about the film. That would be fine. That would be interesting. That would be useful and enlightening. Talking about the film and how it makes you feel is absolutely valid.
Talking about how you feel, and then pivoting immediately to "and everyone else agrees with me so my feelings weigh more than yours do because 2.7 billion" or "because nobody can quote the dialog" or "because 3D is a thing now thanks to Cameron" or "because nobody remembers anything" is what I'm getting at in that post.
Avatar threads almost immediately derail because the movie itself isn't the most compelling topic of conversation, it seems. People who like it would rather talk about (and minimize/mock/put down) the people who don't. People who don't like it would rather try to make the people who do like it feel minimized/duped/suckered somehow.
The shit becomes very quickly partisan in a way that doesn't even happen in the superhero discussions (which were long ago split down brand/party lines in some sort of perverse generational pro-wrestling work that has since become a shoot), and I think it's because a fair amount of the people who keep coming into these threads to talk about this film and its (presumed) sequels aren't really interested in talking about the film. Myself included, admittedly.
The thing that most intrigues me is the potential box-office. There's a basic curiosity as to just what new weird direction Cameron is going to steer his tightly bunched bundle of movie fetishes (because he's obviously completely off-the-fuckin-chain now) but what interests me isn't the storytelling, really. It's people-watching. How will they respond? WHY? How much will they spend on it. Will they regret that expenditure? How fast will they throw money at it? How long? What weird pop-culture quirks are we going to discover in response to this thing?
That sorta shit fascinates me - more than the film itself ever has. And so I tend to look at the film from those other angles as opposed to the primary one: How it works/doesn't, and how that makes me feel.
It really does seem like even on the part of people who do like the film, what's more fascinating isn't the film, it's the way it can be used to bolster the weird "Cult of Cameron" thing that is maybe semi-facetious (worked into a shoot, brother), or its opposite number.
The most interesting thing about Avatar is the way people use Avatar. Cameron included.
Which I guess makes a certain amount of sense, considering.
The only thing that is interesting to talk about is the anomaly. The movie that is the highest grossing of all time yet has had no cultural impact. It's a mystery and we always want to talk about it because the mystery is more interesting than the film itself.
It didn't have lasting cultural impact because they chose to not overcommercialize it? That's a new excuse.This is not a mystery. Cameron and Fox did not have the foresight, or desire, to commercialize the fuck out of it like Lucas did with Star Wars. If it's not constantly shoved in the public's face, they forget. That's why Avatar has been getting more exposure on TV over the last few months, they're trying to revive it in the public conscious for the opening of Pandora at Animal Kingdom. They've even got a comic and a video game coming in the next year.
Lol yepThey did try to commercialize it. They just stopped when people didn't buy the merchandise.
Here is an article from 6 months after its release:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/avatar-merchandise-strategy-going-long-24444
This is not a mystery. Cameron and Fox did not have the foresight, or desire, to commercialize the fuck out of it like Lucas did with Star Wars. If it's not constantly shoved in the public's face, they forget. That's why Avatar has been getting more exposure on TV over the last few months, they're trying to revive it in the public conscious for the opening of Pandora at Animal Kingdom. They've even got a comic and a video game coming in the next year.
During its initial release, "Avatar" was supported by what Fox said was one of its most extensive merchandising programs ever with more than 125 licensed products across four major categories -- toys, apparel, publishing and video games.
This fall, Fox plans to offer more "Avatar" merchandise for the key back-to-school, Halloween and holiday shopping seasons, including costumes, board games and bedding items.
"Avatar is a true game changer. I don't think the world has seen anything like it and the best part is that it's just the tip of the iceberg," said Robert Marick, executive vp of Fox Consumer Products. "We know that 'Avatar' can thrive at retail independent of new movie releases, and we are developing creative ways to engage fans throughout the year."
I wonder if it had anything to do with how goddamn tacky the blue aliens look. Who'd ever want to have those things around them?They did try to commercialize it. They just stopped when people didn't buy the merchandise.
Here is an article from 6 months after its release:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/avatar-merchandise-strategy-going-long-24444
They announced that they're getting a new director and non of the old cast is coming up. Might as well be dead.Speaking of long delays between movies.. when the hell are they going to continue the English Girl with the Dragon Tattoo series? Is that dead?
and then Dec. 19, 2025.
This is not a mystery. Cameron and Fox did not have the foresight, or desire, to commercialize the fuck out of it like Lucas did with Star Wars. If it's not constantly shoved in the public's face, they forget. That's why Avatar has been getting more exposure on TV over the last few months, they're trying to revive it in the public conscious for the opening of Pandora at Animal Kingdom. They've even got a comic and a video game coming in the next year.
They did try to commercialize it. They just stopped when people didn't buy the merchandise.
Here is an article from 6 months after its release:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/avatar-merchandise-strategy-going-long-24444
If it's the Obi Wan movie, it would destroy Avatar, yeah. Not a doubt in my mind.
I don't think Avatar is a great film, I found the last act to drag on and become rather boring but no, that is an insane thought. If the Obi-Wan film is indeed released in 2020, it won't compete with Avatar 2.
And two of it's biggest fans' arguments in this thread have literally been:"The most intersting thing about Avatar are it's box-office numbers and the discussion of them"
It's almost as if despite making ONE-FAFILLION BAZILLION JARILLION DOLLAS, it's not a very interesting movie at all. It's trite forgettable fluff that Cameron marks trick themselves into believing is good because they spent over a decade waiting for a new Cameron movie and what they got was a 3 hour PS4 tech demo.
It's more or less:And two of it's biggest fans' arguments in this thread have literally been:
1. The plot had to be generic and bland so studio execs would greenlight it.
And
2. It's had no lasting cultural impact because they didn't want it to and didn't overmarket it.
Lol
And two of it's biggest fans' arguments in this thread have literally been:
1. The plot had to be generic and bland so studio execs would greenlight it.
And
2. It's had no lasting cultural impact because they didn't want it to and didn't overmarket it.
Lol
That is some revisionist history you got there. The movie was absolutely commercialized. There were toys and video games and everything else. Nobody wanted any of it.
I'm not saying it wasn't commercialized at the time, I'm saying there has been no sustained pushing of the brand via merchandise since then
Truth. Demand creates supply. Hence the original argument.But why would there be if there's no desire for it even on the part of the fanbase?
You just contributed to that narrative with your anecdotal experience.
You initially tried to make it out that the lack of presence in the public consciousness was due to the merchandising arm not flexing (due to ineptitude? due to noble aspirations? choose your own adventure!) but then, after being shown that merchandising was attempted and pushed, shared a story in which you rejected the merchandising because even for someone who really enjoyed the movie, what they were selling wasn't very good. You didn't like it.
Star Wars' merchandising did slow down in the late '80s/early 90s. But they were still able to sustain it because regardless what they were selling, there was an audience that obviously wanted to buy all that plastic bullshit and all those bedsheets & lunchboxes. It's not like Star Wars toys were some sort of bastion of quality either.
Avatar's merchandising was unsustainable. And not just because it was ugly or poorly made.
What would be more mind blowing at this point though:
Cameron coming up with a leap forward in CG imagery and cinematography? Or Cameron doing almost everything practically with models, puppets, animatronics, and sets?