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Doctor, Doctor MAFIA | It's not Lupus

nin1000

Banned
Looking forward to squidy trying to capitalize on nin's weird comments.

I know that i tend to be more the reactive player but there is nothing sinister in my way of playing. Burb tried to get me lynched because of that. I hope i wont be under the chopping block again.
 
Burb didn't try that hard to get you lynched. He put an early vote down and then tried to argue why other people were scum.

Vote: nin1000

If he doesn't get lynched, I'll be targeting nin tonight.
 

nin1000

Banned
Burb didn't try that hard to get you lynched. He put an early vote down and then tried to argue why other people were scum.

Vote: nin1000

If he doesn't get lynched, I'll be targeting nin tonight.

I still dont really get why you want to vote me out. What makes you think that i am indeed scum ?
 
I still dont really get why you want to vote me out. What makes you think that i am indeed scum ?
I don't get why voted hobo. I don't get why you thought you a killing role n1. I don't get why scumlord dumped a vote on you early and then spent the rest of his posts arguing why other people were scum. I don't get why you found ty scummy and just happened to be apparently right about your role to kill jail suspect.
 

*Splinter

Member
I'm currently thinking:

Lynch nin
Stack on squid, Sorian and I take no action.

If squid is scum, we can't be jailers.
If one of us kills, the other heals. We cancel anyway.
If we are both healers/null then I'd rather have less protection on squidy. Perhaps the Jailer is dead and the Quack or cpr gets through.

If we lynch squid then we'd all have to stack on nin, I think.
 

*Splinter

Member
Ah I forgot that FEP could well be Jailer, so Sorian would have been jailed last night. I think the above still holds? It's even more likely that I'm not a killer, so I won't be targetting anyone.

I also forgot nin apparently targeting Ty4on, so it's possible scum WAS blocked last night anyway.

I don't know, it's far from waterproof but I still think the above plan is our best course of action?

Hopefully nin is scum and everything else is moot.

I'm also not sure if lynch nin / stack squid is actually better than lynch squid / stack nin...
 

*Splinter

Member
Oh I forgot to post it, but nin's answers were confusing, but nin's a confusing guy, so meh

The more damning thing is Burb's behaviour, which I glossed over too quickly before:
Burb didn't try that hard to get you lynched. He put an early vote down and then tried to argue why other people were scum.
FEP's right, it's classic scum play.

FEP if we lynch nin will you target squid?
 

*Splinter

Member
As for Sorian... He's definitely less scummy than squidy, so that's where I'm placing the blame if I'm wrong :D

Joking aside, here is everything I have against him:

1. Early gut feels from myself and townie Ty4on

2. Ignored squidy for a little too long. He answered this here:
It also wasn't actually only because you showed support. I was still under the impression that Crimson was dodging my question and that's my fault for not noticing it but yes, with what, less than a half hour left? I had to give up on Crimson and go with my second who seemed more likely, leave it to not moving my vote around and you all would have probably lynched FEP or something.
Which could be true but doesn't really negate my criticism.

3. I feel he's been oddly trusting of me. I can see a case against me, and am surprised he hasn't raised it yet. The paranoid part of me thinks we're heading for a repeat of MGS (vote swing to me when a convincing case appears at the 11th hour). He might not have thought of the same thing, but even without that he's been really trusting, maybe just staying on my good side?


1 is meh. 2 is solid but less than I have on squid/nin. 3 is paranoia.
 

nin1000

Banned
I don't get why voted hobo.
he gave me scum vibes
I don't get why you thought you a killing role n1.
I assumed but did not say that i was sure
I don't get why scumlord dumped a vote on you early and then spent the rest of his posts arguing why other people were scum.
Well, for that you will have to ask Burb since i dont know why he did that.
I don't get why you found ty scummy and just happened to be apparently right about your role to kill jail suspect.

I was mostly afraid that he was hiding something with him playing the weird way he did.
 

nin1000

Banned
Ah I forgot that FEP could well be Jailer, so Sorian would have been jailed last night. I think the above still holds? It's even more likely that I'm not a killer, so I won't be targetting anyone.

I also forgot nin apparently targeting Ty4on, so it's possible scum WAS blocked last night anyway.

I don't know, it's far from waterproof but I still think the above plan is our best course of action?

Hopefully nin is scum and everything else is moot.

I'm also not sure if lynch nin / stack squid is actually better than lynch squid / stack nin...

My thoughts are that scum got blocked and i killed someone. If lynching me will bring some light onto that so be it. I want Town to win and if Lynching me will bring us closer towards that so be it.
 

cabot

Member
squidyj (2)
sorian 430
*splinter 470

sorian (1)
squidyj 431

nin1000 (1)
flatearthpandas 502

ora_1470690000.png
 

nin1000

Banned
I would of course prefer to lynch squid and you guys stack on me. Would aswell again withhold my move if i get not lynched.
 
If today's lynch target is town, maybe we should all act independently. If we lynch nin and he is town then that means he was either cpr, quack, or naive. That means that either way we have 3 out of four left from cpr, jailor, doc, and weak, all of which can potentially block kills. Our pool of deaths include weak suicide, scum kill, quack, and cpr. Four potential kills, three potential saves among five targets. Two of them are counted in both groups. Weak is more likely to save someone than die, cpr more likely the opposite.

I think the odds of three kills going through are fairly low. Two kills would be preferable to the one we would likely get from the stack imo, makes for a tighter lylo.

Eh, i dunno.
 

*Splinter

Member
If today's lynch target is town, maybe we should all act independently. If we lynch nin and he is town then that means he was either cpr, quack, or naive. That means that either way we have 3 out of four left from cpr, jailor, doc, and weak, all of which can potentially block kills. Our pool of deaths include weak suicide, scum kill, quack, and cpr. Four potential kills, three potential saves among five targets. Two of them are counted in both groups. Weak is more likely to save someone than die, cpr more likely the opposite.

I think the odds of three kills going through are fairly low. Two kills would be preferable to the one we would likely get from the stack imo, makes for a tighter lylo.

Eh, i dunno.
If we stack and there are 2 kills, we've found scum - game over.

Therefore, if we stack on scum they have to consider whether they make a kill or not. 0 kills buys us an extra day which is huge, 2 kills ruins them. They are gambling on which of the weak/Jailer doctors are alive.

If we stack on town, that means our next most likely lynch target is town and we've probably lost anyway.
 

Sorian

Banned
I'm currently thinking:

Lynch nin
Stack on squid, Sorian and I take no action.

If squid is scum, we can't be jailers.
If one of us kills, the other heals. We cancel anyway.
If we are both healers/null then I'd rather have less protection on squidy. Perhaps the Jailer is dead and the Quack or cpr gets through.

If we lynch squid then we'd all have to stack on nin, I think.

I would prefer this plan but with squid and nin reversed. I honestly do believe that the game will end with squidy. That said, I don't see why in either direction we pull off from the mega stack, there's no rush, we can just get our no/low kill night and move on with a lynch tomorrow.
 

*Splinter

Member
Actually I guess they are only gambling on weak, since if the Jailer is alive they don't have a choice and it's a 0 kill night.
 

*Splinter

Member
If we believe nin he can't be weak or he'd've protected Ty4on.

If we believe squid then I have no idea but he probably could be weak? (Not saying it's the most likely but I don't think it can be ruled out).

Lynch nin = weak more likely to be alive = scum might withhold their kill to avoid 2 kills

Lynch squid = weak status is less certain = harder for scum to gamble on, could lead to 2 kills

Not sure which is better.
 

Sorian

Banned
Also, to answer Splinter, yes, I am being trusting of you. I always find one person to put my eggs in with early on, if I just distrust everyone then the field is too big to look through, it seemed most obvious that you were town so I pulled you from my list to be added back in later if all of the suspects are gone and scum is still hiding somehow, it's nothing new.

------

So who else do we need to know is fine with the stack? Crimson? nin, you should be acting too if you survive today, if you live and are actually town then you should be targeting me if you think I'm scum or.... probably Crimson? if not. Basically, just whoever the next highest scum candidate that isn't you.
 

Sorian

Banned
Has Nin done anything besides defend himself today?

And Squidy never did answer why he targeted Sorian, unless I missed it.

He did not and I went back to make sure I wasn't missing it in a throwaway post this time.

If we believe nin he can't be weak or he'd've protected Ty4on.

If we believe squid then I have no idea but he probably could be weak? (Not saying it's the most likely but I don't think it can be ruled out).

Lynch nin = weak more likely to be alive = scum might withhold their kill to avoid 2 kills

Lynch squid = weak status is less certain = harder for scum to gamble on, could lead to 2 kills

Not sure which is better.

Walk me through why two kills outs the scum instantly because I'm not seeing how that works but you're treating it like a given.
 

*Splinter

Member
Also, to answer Splinter, yes, I am being trusting of you. I always find one person to put my eggs in with early on, if I just distrust everyone then the field is too big to look through, it seemed most obvious that you were town so I pulled you from my list to be added back in later if all of the suspects are gone and scum is still hiding somehow, it's nothing new.

------

So who else do we need to know is fine with the stack? Crimson? nin, you should be acting too if you survive today, if you live and are actually town then you should be targeting me if you think I'm scum or.... probably Crimson? if not. Basically, just whoever the next highest scum candidate that isn't you.
No, nin shouldn't target anyone. If he's the Quack it leads to a guaranteed mislynch, scum win.

Everyone needs to target nin or squid (whoever isn't lynched). If it's squid then I will take no action, apart from that there is no need to withhold.
Walk me through why two kills outs the scum instantly because I'm not seeing how that works but you're treating it like a given.
If everyone stacks, 2 kills is scum kill + weak doc. Stack target was scum.

I'm assuming the stack target survives but if not that's only good news. Top suspect down and 1 more lynch to go.
 

Sorian

Banned
Hmm fair, that does mean a town nin should not act tonight then, same with a town squidy if he is targeted for stack though he is less important.
 
My main reservation with stack is that scum basically controls the night if they aren't the target. And controlling the night can easily influence our actions tomorrow, even if there's a no kill night.

Acting on our own volition removes scum agency from us.

If splinter is scum for example, he lets us lynch nin and encourages us to pile squid. Then he abstains from nk, we all think we jailed squid, and ml again tomorrow. Sending us into the next night with 4 and, sure I guess we eventually get a 3 person lylo which is ideal. And zero chance to get unlucky and blow ourselves up.

I don't know why, I just don't like the stack strategy for some reason. Still on board unless we find something better though
 

Sorian

Banned
With how deaths have been so far, that 3 person lylo is worth the price of scum having control (which isn't really any more control that they would have in a normal game). This is the only night stack makes sense, definitely no good tomorrow night.
 

squidyj

Member
Why is it a good way for town to lose? You haven't actually answered that question. Are you trying to push a policy lynch, do you think I did something (that would have had to have happened very early day 1), what? And where does your belief come from and why even point to Burb specifically and not Ty4on?

Is this night vale again?

"Logic"

Ok, so give me specifics on what you just said, either he was blocked or he was non-killing. So basically, he is anything. "Oh, but then we can take into account that Ty or FEP is the paranoid!" Except we aren't solving that riddle anytime soon. Lynching Burb just for info makes no sense because his lunch does not give us any info. If he flips doc the maybe he was a regular doctor because nothing happened or maybe he was a killing doc and was jailed or maybe he was a regular doc and was jailed. K, great logic there. If he flips scum, then maybe a jailor got him, or maybe he targeted someone else that got healed, or maybe he was out in the woods taking a shit last night as bears tend to do and was doing nothing anyway.

So no, get off your high horse, I followed through on the logic, it's just without full flips, we aren't solving this and anyone trying is purposely wasting time. That's not even taking into account that this is Gafia and I'm willing to bet my career that a town member probably lied too to muck things up.

The posts where he asks "why not ty over burb?" and then "WHY DO ANY OF THIS" as though he lost the context of his initial question and was just looking for any way to discredit the idea of voting for burbeting.

What a weird way to phrase that. Anyway,I'm still fine with Crimson and squidy for my vote. Crimson is still doing the same wallflower routine and, at this point, has gone out of his way to ignore questions on why he was so inactive yesterday (and basically has the same inactivity today). squidy is tunneling and he only does that when he is running a plan of some sort, he's also given no actual reason for his vote on me other than (if we let him live, town will have a bad time!) and then something about how I'm not following his wonky logic.

I've debated if Splinter is at fault or even Ty4on for that shit vote yesterday but there isn't anything there, the nurse claim came a little too late and the only active and who wasn't on a post restriction timer appeared to be me and I had no way to use my vote to save him so meh.

Why am I quoting this post? Because this post in turn is a response to a post that was almost entirely about voting for burbeting yet sorian avoids mentioning burbeting and instead pushes his mislynch targets forward, he's defending burb here by trying to shift the train of thought in town. He doesn't really want to talk too much about burb he really just wants us looking at other players.

No, I just didn't want to confuse the pot further, I didn't care about it adding up because almost any lie in this game could add up. If I was the only one targeting you though then scum would think I was a protector and then I could have potentially surprised them later with a kill, wasn't worth it if I was mucking about though and unable to trick scum.

Has nin suspected anyone today? I would think a scum Burb would have tried to focus on someone who actually acted last night and kill someone he saw as useful assuming truth. nin, on the other hand, has no vote down and didn't seem to attack anything?

And again, more trying to push things away from burb
All of this from the same guy who today said:
I didn't argue against his lynch earlier in day 2,


Hmm, I'm going to skim Burb again real quick before the day ends, he isn't here to defend himself and I doubt one partner can put up much of a fight so he isn't going to slip more in the last moments.

Why did we need to see this post? because you didn't think reading my post as weird was enough to justify your new hardline stance on your scum partner.
 

Sorian

Banned
The posts where he asks "why not ty over burb?" and then "WHY DO ANY OF THIS" as though he lost the context of his initial question and was just looking for any way to discredit the idea of voting for burbeting.



Why am I quoting this post? Because this post in turn is a response to a post that was almost entirely about voting for burbeting yet sorian avoids mentioning burbeting and instead pushes his mislynch targets forward, he's defending burb here by trying to shift the train of thought in town. He doesn't really want to talk too much about burb he really just wants us looking at other players.



And again, more trying to push things away from burb
All of this from the same guy who today said:





Why did we need to see this post? because you didn't think reading my post as weird was enough to justify your new hardline stance on your scum partner.

In order of everything you said:

The issue had nothing to do with Burb or Ty. You were trying to sell an information only lynch when we had actual suspects to follow, not only that, the "information" was pointless which is what I was point out. It didn't matter who you were talking about, I was pointing out your fallacy.

The first sentence of that post is the only thing that I said to FEP in the prior post. He had worded something in such a way that it could have been seen as a scum slip and I highlighted it. I had not given reads in awhile so I used that mostly empty post to put them in.

As far as the next two things go, that's all well and good but I still ended on Burb and I did it at a time where nin could have easily died in his place. You were voting for nin which would have made it a tie and I pushed Burb back over, you then swapped your vote because you knew you were too obvious. Asking about nin's inactivity in the same sentence as saying that Burb has been playing a very meh game doesn't really mean much.

Also:

I didn't die last night, scum didn't get a kill last night, What's to be gained from switching targets?

lol
 

*Splinter

Member
I'm pretty sure this is over. In Squidy's position I wouldn't even bother defending myself - that ship has sailed. Sorian has became less of a lynch target throughout the day and changing that would have been town-squidy's priority.

Scum-squidy is too fucked to keep trying, which is what I think we're seeing here.

IF NOT

Everyone on nin tonight pls & ty

2 deaths = lynch nin
0 or 1 = nin v Sorian I think

It could be Crimson, but I doubt it for not much reason.

If it's FEP then gg wp
 

*Splinter

Member
Oh, and if we get 0 kills remember that we can force a D5 but taking no action N4. If that happens please dont let Sorian talk his way out of a lynch.
 

squidyj

Member
This answer only makes sense if you think you might be the Jailer. Do you think yo-

Oh ok then

i think i might be the jailer. i also think ty might be the jailer and fep might be the jailer. I made a concrete prediction, not a series of probabilities. I think ty has somewhat higher probability of being jailer but is there anything better i can do when i know i am one of
ordinary | naive | jailer ????? (with a small chance of being wrong about sorian and being weak)
 

squidyj

Member
I'm pretty sure this is over. In Squidy's position I wouldn't even bother defending myself - that ship has sailed. Sorian has became less of a lynch target throughout the day and changing that would have been town-squidy's priority.

Scum-squidy is too fucked to keep trying, which is what I think we're seeing here.

IF NOT

Everyone on nin tonight pls & ty

2 deaths = lynch nin
0 or 1 = nin v Sorian I think

It could be Crimson, but I doubt it for not much reason.

If it's FEP then gg wp

fuck this garbage i'm going to flip town and when i flip town you'd better park your asses on sorian.
 

*Splinter

Member
i think i might be the jailer. i also think ty might be the jailer and fep might be the jailer. I made a concrete prediction, not a series of probabilities. I think ty has somewhat higher probability of being jailer but is there anything better i can do when i know i am one of
ordinary | naive | jailer ????? (with a small chance of being wrong about sorian and being weak)
Fair

In a Burb+Sorian scum team you think Sorian would do the kill?

Their only consideration is "who is more likely to be targeted (jailed)?" That would quite easily be Sorian.
 

Sorian

Banned
Oh, and if we get 0 kills remember that we can force a D5 but taking no action N4. If that happens please dont let Sorian talk his way out of a lynch.

Rude, I'm hoping I don't have to cross that bridge because if someone is hiding deep, you all are going to assume it's me.
 

squidyj

Member
Fair

In a Burb+Sorian scum team you think Sorian would do the kill?

Their only consideration is "who is more likely to be targeted (jailed)?" That would quite easily be Sorian.

you can say that but you might also think the other way with a little bit of wifom. That sorian is unlikely to be targeted or that submitting the kill might as well be a coin toss.
 

squidyj

Member
point is you're speculating about what scum was thinking in a situation with dominating randomness and that's a dangerous game to play.
 

Sorian

Banned
what the fuck are you laughing about?

Just an interesting slip if you are scum.

Fair

In a Burb+Sorian scum team you think Sorian would do the kill?

Their only consideration is "who is more likely to be targeted (jailed)?" That would quite easily be Sorian.

Take that to the next level and yeah, I could be scum, Burb was targeted twice and maybe jailed which explains N1 (kind of) but it's still too much if someone really thinks I'm partner's with Burb. My intentional bus was missing as was any protection of him when it mattered, what was I doing then? Food for thought if this really does go on after today.
 

*Splinter

Member
you can say that but you might also think the other way with a little bit of wifom. That sorian is unlikely to be targeted or that submitting the kill might as well be a coin toss.
Targetting Sorian N2 made no sense. Frankly I'd be more willing to believe "it's a mini game and I didn't care enough to think about my night action" over your current argument.
 

Sorian

Banned
you can say that but you might also think the other way with a little bit of wifom. That sorian is unlikely to be targeted or that submitting the kill might as well be a coin toss.

I have never gone into a game on neogaf with the thought "I'm unlikely to be targeted"
 

squidyj

Member
Just an interesting slip if you are scum.



Take that to the next level and yeah, I could be scum, Burb was targeted twice and maybe jailed which explains N1 (kind of) but it's still too much if someone really thinks I'm partner's with Burb. My intentional bus was missing as was any protection of him when it mattered, what was I doing then? Food for thought if this really does go on after today.

those were my thoughts when I was in n2 submitting my action.
 
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