Here's what's at stake for Sony when it comes to getting me to buy-in:
If Netflix and such apps, as well as friends list, PSN store, and online gaming is free, I buy a console day one, even if its a hefty price tag. I don't mind having a more expensive PS+ if it does the same things it does now but adds more cloud stuff, Gaikai streaming, etc. I'm okay with that! PS+ is great, Sony IPs and studios are great, and I know third parties will be all over this. It's an investment I will have no qualms with.
However, if there is a paywall for using Netflix, a browser, looking to buy something from the PSN store, talking to friends, etc. I will have to sit back and truly evaluate what will be the better long term buy for me, the new Xbox or the PS4. Moreover, I might decided that NEITHER are worth investing anytime soon. Down the line, Microsoft might be able to interest me more with exclusive content, tech, and apps on their system. The thing is, I'm only buying one of these, I'm no longer buying all consoles, that was incredibly redundant this generation. I have a strong PC, will buy a Wii U when there's more than 3-5 games I want to play. So it's up to Sony to counter-balance a lot of the negative stuff Microsoft has going for it if they want me to pony up. And the thing is, if Sony does the consumer right by not being draconian with their online services, they'll have me day one as a PS4 user and PS+ subscriber. It's that simple. Don't abuse the subscription and I'm a loyal consumer. Abuse it and Sony is losing a major advantage it has over Microsoft, and my wallet will be used on my PC and Wii U.