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New NBC/WSJ poll has Carson in first place, Trump in second, Rubio third

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ivysaur12

Banned
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...-carson-surges-lead-national-gop-race-n456006

Ben Carson has surged into the lead of the Republican presidential race, getting support from 29 percent of GOP primary voters, according to a brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

That's the highest percentage any GOP candidate has obtained so far in the survey.

Carson's 29 percent is followed by Donald Trump at 23 percent, Marco Rubio at 11 percent, Ted Cruz at 10 percent and Jeb Bush at 8 percent. These findings are similar to a New York Times/CBS poll released last week, which also showed Carson in first place in the national GOP contest.

If past polling has been about Trump leading the GOP field, "then this survey is about Dr. Ben Carson, who is currently the man to beat for the Republicans," says Democratic pollster Fred Yang, whose firm Hart Research Associates conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Oct. 25-29, so before and after last week's third Republican presidential debate hosted by CNBC.

Earlier in October - before that debate - Trump was ahead the GOP at 25 percent (then the high-water mark for any Republican candidate in the poll), Carson was at 22 percent, Rubio at 13 percent, Cruz at 9 percent and Bush at 8 percent.

In addition to leading the GOP field, Carson also becomes the first GOP candidate in the NBC/WSJ poll to get majority support as either a first or second choice among GOP primary voters.

A combined 50 percent of Republican voters pick Carson as either their first or second choice in the GOP presidential race - followed by 35 percent for Trump, 24 percent for Rubio and 23 percent for Cruz.

"[Carson] has broad support, but we don't know yet the depth and commitment of that support," Yang says.

"It doesn't mean it is enduring," but it's still noteworthy that a majority of Republicans pick Carson as either their first or second choice, adds GOP pollster McInturff.

Carson 29%
Trump 23%
Rubio 11%
Cruz 10%
Bush 8%
Fiorina 3%
Kasich 3%
Huckabee 3%
Christie 3%
Paul 2%

Note that Rubio support has dropped 2%.
 

tomtom94

Member
This NBC/WSJ poll was conducted (by telephone and cell phone) from Oct 25-29 of 400 GOP primary voters, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 4.9 percentage points.

Translation: pretty small sample size and the lead change is within the margin of error.

I've been burned by polls like that from the UK general election already.
 

danm999

Member
Amazed Carson continues to perform strongly. He was more inaudible and incomprehensible than ever at last week's debate.

Wouldn't be surprised if he dozed off next week and broke the 30% barrier in some polls.
 

Sadsic

Member
Translation: pretty small sample size and the lead change is within the margin of error.

I've been burned by polls like that from the UK general election already.

sample size is about 3x less than fox news polls, so this is a valid point
 
The only explanation I can think of, is that Carson's supporters reaction to his incoherent ramblings is "I can't understand anything he's saying so he must be very smart!"
 
So anybody wanna come in here and justify their vote for Carson?

In b4 "this board is a liberal paradise" or "I'm just gonna be victimized" or "you guize are so close minded"
 

RPGCrazied

Member
Seems like all the crazies are leaving Trump and going to Carson. Well, hopefully Trump will drop out in due time, then Carson will follow.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
That is a tiny sample size, the Reuters 5-day tracking has a bigger sample.

I wouldn't take this as gospel, especially since the swing is within the margin.
 
Translation: pretty small sample size and the lead change is within the margin of error.

I've been burned by polls like that from the UK general election already.

sample size is fine. most polls that attempt to predict the behavior of all ~320 million people usually are no more than 1500 participants.

A lot of the primary polls are only about 400 participants or so, because registered republicans are only about 23% of the population.
 

OuterLimits

Member
I can't imagine anyone thinking Carson did well in the debate? Maybe Jeb did worse, but Carson was terrible. Although some of this poll was before debate.

Makes no sense Rubio dropped.
 
I can't imagine anyone thinking Carson did well in the debate? Maybe Jeb did worse, but Carson was terrible. Although some of this poll was before debate.

Makes no sense Rubio dropped.

Carson's audience isn't voting for him based on his policy positions, because he doesn't have any. ALL of his debates have been abysmal, rambling nonsense.

He's picking up voters based on his faith as well as general likability and character.

That being said this poll is a bit odd, because its splitting results from before and after the debate. Carson's rise appears to be coming from Bush voters fleeing that sinking ship- I'm willing to bet a completely post debate poll will have rubio somewhat higher than this, and carson a bit lower.
 

FtsH

Member
It's all based on entertainment value. Trump is getting more practical, thus he won't hold much longer in this show....
 
Man, I just don't get it. All the non-sense I hear from Trump, and yet the moment I hear Carson speak, makes me almost want to run back to Trump's "sensible" non-sense.

That's the ticket? Out crazy the other guys to get noticed? We have reached that point as last election, circle through all the headliners and craziness until it all centers back to one last choice like Romney?
 

Moofers

Member
Honestly what's the appeal of Carson?

Well, in terms of what one would desire in an applicant for the position of President of the United States of America, I would say that the important thing here is the fact that he speaks very softly in a way that is comforting, but also that he manages to sometimes actually utilize a very large amount of time to express a thought or multiple thoughts that may actually have a very paltry offering in the way of substantial content for people to absorb and take into consideration.

Are you sleeping yet? Still awake?

Ok, well then also what's important is a recognition of the fact that the current administration has taken it upon themselves and their own decision making, to activate policies which when closely examined as I have examined them, appear to be much worse in terms of forward thinking and responsible moral action, than the policies that caused the holocaust just a few short decades ago.
 

Tobor

Member
Take the three establishment candidates and add their numbers together and what do you get? 29%.

Once the field narrows the two circus freaks won't be able to maintain the lead.
 
It's all based on entertainment value. Trump is getting more practical, thus he won't hold much longer in this show....

trump didn't lose any support in this poll. there's a minor drop of 2%, but that's well within the poll's margin of error. basically statistical noise.

Trump's numbers are INCREDIBLY stable, all things considered.
 
Honestly what's the appeal of Carson?

He "seems" smarter than anyone else in the GOP primary pool if you just read his background (retired neurosurgeon) and don't pay attention to the words that come out of his mouth. Also, the cynic in me believes that there are a fair number of Republicans who are (understandably) fed up with being labeled racists every time they disagree with Obama, so voting for a black candidate allows them to prove they aren't racist, they just don't like liberal policies.
 

LosDaddie

Banned
Rubio not catching fire yet is the big story. He's the only hope for Republicans next year.

Seems right to me. I imagine Bush would love to be in 3rd place right now.

The far-right will get to rub one out over Trump/Carson before the party leaders get them all to support Rubio. I believe Bush is essentially done now.
 

Cheebo

Banned
Take the three establishment candidates and add their numbers together and what do you get? 29%.

Once the field narrows the two circus freaks won't be able to maintain the lead.
That's pretty much what the Rubio campaign is banking on.
 

Revolver

Member
Honestly what's the appeal of Carson?

Evangelicals love him. Though I do wonder how much of that group are aware he's a SDA. A relative on mine loves him because of his "biblical world view". Though when I mentioned to her that he's an Adventist you could see the enthusiasm melt like ice in July,
 
4 years and 1 month ago...

NBC/WSJ Poll: Cain now leads pack

Fueled by Tea Party supporters, conservatives and high-interest GOP primary voters, former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain now leads the race for the Republican presidential nomination, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Cain checks in as the first choice of 27 percent of Republican voters in the poll, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 23 percent.

“Cain is the leader ... That’s the story,” said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

Romney: Cain :: Trump: Carson
 
4 years and 1 month ago...



Romney: Cain :: Trump: Carson

Cain is a bad example, since that guy's candidacy was completely undone by numerous sexual harassment allegations.

In late October 2011, Politico reported that Cain had been accused by two women of sexual harassment and misconduct during his time as CEO of the National Restaurant Association in the late 1990s.[81][82] Harassment accusations were later made by two additional women. Cain acknowledged that the restaurant organization made financial settlements to the complainants. Two of the four women came forward publicly: Sharon Bialek and Karen Kraushaar.[83]

On November 28, 2011, Cain asserted that a woman named Ginger White would be claiming to have had an affair with him, and that the allegation was not true.[84] An interview with White was aired an hour later on Fox 5 in Atlanta. In the interview, White said the affair lasted 13 years and ended right before Cain announced his presidential campaign.[85] On November 30, 2011, Herman Cain denounced allegations of sexual harassment and adultery as "character assassination" during an event in Dayton, Ohio.[86]

In addition to questions regarding allegations of adultery and sexual harassment, Cain drew attention to himself in two well publicized TV appearances. In an interview on CBN.com, the Christian Broadcasting Network, he referred to the country of Uzbekistan as "uz becki beki beki beki stan stan". The remark was interpreted as illustrating both Cain's ignorance of international politics and geography as well as casting him as condescending toward a country he knew nothing about. Cain's grasp of international politics was cast into further doubt when he stumbled and gave nonsensical answers to a question about Libya during an interview with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. At one point he simply stated "I got all this stuff twirling around in my head." These two episodes provided fodder for late night TV comedians and political satirists for days after their occurrence.[citation needed]

On December 3, 2011, Cain announced he was "suspending" his campaign for the presidency following allegations of sexual harassment and adultery, which he denied,[21] but were widely considered responsible for the sharp drop in his poll numbers.[87] During this campaign suspension speech, Cain quoted the theme song from Pokémon: The Movie 2000.

I doubt he could have taken romney in the long run (his campaign wasn't anywhere near as organized) but Carson isn't going to end up with scandals destroying his campaign in a matter of weeks.
 

Ovid

Member
So Rubio went down and Cruz went up?

Everyone was saying that they were the really winners of the debate though.
 
D

Deleted member 80556

Unconfirmed Member
Wouldn't this be the best scenario? Trump angered he isn't in the front, goes independent and takes votes from the GOP in the General?
 

Meowster

Member
Eek. Anyone there is better than Carson, other than maybe Ted Cruz, he's actually insane and not a troll unlike Donald Trump.
 
Translation: pretty small sample size and the lead change is within the margin of error.

I've been burned by polls like that from the UK general election already.

It's within MOE but the primaries are still months away so it doesn't matter much, because the polls could change wildly by then, regardless. What it does show, taken with Iowa polls and the CBS(?) national poll last week, is a trend.
 
Him leading in these polls is legitimately pissing me off. Why is he leading? He can't give one coherent answer in regards to policy. He was absolutely terrible in the last debate and even struggled to defend his own tax policy. Ugh rant over.
 
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