I agree. I think Nintendo will fail to establish relevance in the home console market again, especially with third parties and the core gamer CoD/Madden/GTA/AssCreed crowd that dominates that arena.
They also may not care much if they truly plan to have a console, a portable and whatever else (maybe a PSNOW type streaming app option for those who have good internet and don't want to buy hardware) that share the same games. Then they just have to sell all hardware for a profit day one and focus on making great games that can sell to everyone regardless of what they're playing Nintendo games on.
More broadly, I just don't think there's room for 3 consoles in the mainstream market. Last gen was a fluke as the Wii U was so different and brought in so many casuals and non-gamers. Otherwise there's mostly been one or two successful consoles and a few also rans in past generations from the 8bit era on.
8bit: NES dominated. Master system was irrelevant.
16bit: SNES and Gensis both did well, others like T16 failed
PS1 Dominated, N64 did ok, Saturn failed abysmally
PS2 dominated, Gamecube and Xbox battled for a distant second place, Dreamcast bombed
So I think Nintendo is right to go after an NX platform that can get all their games to people a variety of ways, with a console just being one of the options.