eznark said:
Baseball Prospectus (it's not pretty):
#18: Milwaukee Brewers (79-83, 756 RS, 761 RA). Last year's team returns down half a starting pitcher, as Yovani Gallardo slides into Ben Sheets' slot and no one replaces CC Sabathia. So why such a big decline? The bullpen, shaky a year ago, looks even worse today, although I do like the idea of Carlos Villanueva throwing 110 innings in relief. The seven-righties-and-Prince plan doesn't seem any better in the lineup today than it has the past two years, and while the defense is better than it was in 2007, it's certainly not good. If I'm off here, it's on the high side.
Joe Sheehan just fisted Milwaukee's collective asshole
Sheehan is probably the BP writer that I respect the least. I forget what comment he made, but it was stunning in its ignorance, and since then I take everything he says with a grain of salt.
Yes, the lineup is the same, but we can reasonably expect better years from most of our players. Fielder, Hart, Braun, and Hardy should have comparable or better years. Weeks either stays his mediocre self or he gets better. Kendall will probably remain a shitty offensive player, Hall doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt, so let's say he remains a shitty offensive player. Cameron will probably be the same, although it's likely he will regress some. Overall, I would expect a slightly better offense than last year.
As for defense, the Brewers were ranked #12 in MLB last year according to UZR. I think Weeks will improve with Randolph's help, and Fielder will improve because he's slimmed down. Anyway, #12+ in defense, I would say that's "good."
Now, the bullpen, which according to Joe was "shaky" last year, actually was #10 in MLB last year in ERA. And how in the hell does it look even worse? Hoffman is an upgrade over Gagne. Stetter is comparable to Shouse. Villanueva will be in the BP the whole season, where he had like a 2.x era last year. Mclung is a wildcard but it look's like he's putting it together. Mark DeFelice is a sleeper and I expect BIG things from him. Check out his K/BB in the minors it's insane. Coffey was a great waiver pick-up, he'll be a steal for us. Riske looks like shit, but we'll see, his career numbers are quite good when healthy. Jorge Julio will be gone when Hoffman comes off the DL.
Starting pitching is the ONLY thing I question about this club, and even that I think is being underestimated.
I can't wait for the season to start so the Brewers can start proving these "experts" wrong.