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Official March 4th - Jr. Tuesday - GAF's worst (McCain wins, Hil wins Ohio, Texas)

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Schattenjäger

Schattenjäger

Gabriel Knight
heres a prediction..

i predict that cheebs is going to predict Hillary winning the general election even after Obama gets the nomination.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
Hah. Stuff like this on Rassmussen worries me. I hate these weekend before primary trends for Hillary.

obama 44 - clinton 44 (Sunday)
Obam 47 - clinton 42 (friday)

Ignoring weekend hillary trends is what everyone did before super tuesday here as well.
 
S

Sharp

Member
Cheebs said:
Hah. Stuff like this on Rassmussen worries me. I hate these weekend before primary trends for Hillary.

obama 44 - clinton 44 (Sunday)
Obam 47 - clinton 42 (friday)

Ignoring weekend hillary trends is what everyone did before super tuesday here as well.
Click to expand...
You are infallibly negative, and it heartens me, but you have to understand that there were a lot of factors working against Obama in California that either don't exist or aren't nearly as prevalent here, the main one being that early voting doesn't overwhelmingly support Hillary this round.
 
S

syllogism

Member
What trends? The only way you can portray Super tuesday trending for Hillary is by cherry picking (worst) polls. The only meaningful trend right now is that her 15-20% leads have vaporized and that's in the few remaining states that are favourable for her. Even if she wins both states, it will be difficult to convince the party that she should be allowed to keep going.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
Clinton campaign starting to pile on about that economic part-time advisor of Obama's talking to the Canadian Consulate. Of course facts are being distorted a tad by both sides, but I don't think this will effect things at all.
 
R

Rur0ni

Member
Ohio
Suffolk 3/3/08
52% Clinton
40% Obama

Rasmussen 3/3/08
50% Clinton
44% Obama


----


I think he'll close the gap, but she'll squeak out the win. Not making any bets on that though. ;)
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Rur0ni said:
Ohio
Suffolk 3/3/08
52% Clinton
40% Obama

Rasmussen 3/3/08
50% Clinton
44% Obama


----


I think he'll close the gap, but she'll squeak out the win. Not making any bets on that though. ;)
Click to expand...

Suffolk?
 
T

Triumph

Banned
Loudninja said:
Suffolk?
Click to expand...
susareportcard.jpg
 
S

syllogism

Member
Seth C said:
I swear to you right now, if Hillary wins Ohio by 10 points, even if Obama were to win Texas by just as much, it would be enough for the media to put her in the driver's seat and annoint her as the obvious winner.
Click to expand...

Even if that happens, she'll lose the next two states by landslides and then will have to somehow survive for a month against growing pressure from the party.
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Seth C said:
I swear to you right now, if Hillary wins Ohio by 10 points, even if Obama were to win Texas by just as much, it would be enough for the media to put her in the driver's seat and annoint her as the obvious winner.
Click to expand...

Nah- if Obama beats her in Texas, she's cooked. IF she eaks out a win in Texas and wins Ohio by 8-10..this thing might go on until June.
 
S

Seth C

Member
schuelma said:
Nah- if Obama beats her in Texas, she's cooked. IF she eaks out a win in Texas and wins Ohio by 8-10..this thing might go on until June.
Click to expand...

Truthfully, I do not expect Hillary to ever drop out of this campaign unless there comes a point where she cannot win, even if all the remaining super delegates and Michigan and Florida were given to her.
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Kildace said:
This is pretty much what will happen in the General Election though, except that instead of Hillary writing it'll be pictures of McCain serving in the Army. Obama needs to prove that these messages don't have an effect on his base and that he can win despite this.
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Oh you bet. They're going to show a John McCain picture of when he was a POW and then do a quick pan to the grade school Obama was at on the same continent.

Think of this last Hillary push as a nice little test for the general.
 
Xisiqomelir

Xisiqomelir

Member
Kildace said:
Obama needs to prove that these messages don't have an effect on his base and that he can win despite this.
Click to expand...

Dem turnout has stomped GOP turnout in every primary and caucus so far. I think that can hold till Nov.
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Obama's NAFTA/Canadian thing is starting to gain traction. Wonder if Hilldog has time to put up a quickie ad tonight?
 
G

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
Why does Ohio always fuck things up?

It's like they actively plan to fuck over the rest of the country
 
H

harSon

Banned
Cheebs said:
I've been wrong the entire campaign? I called NH and Nevada right when nearly no one did. And on Super Tuesday I claimed Clinton would win Cali when most of gaf was high on that Zogby poll that had him in the lead. My pessimism so far has proved to work far more than it has been wrong.
Click to expand...

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=9609704&highlight=California#post9609704
You know, I am one of the biggest pessimists here in terms of politics. I claimed Obama would lose Nevada people here laughed at that. I claimed up and down the crying would help Hillary and no one believed me....but my gut is really telling me Obama will win California. I dunno why, I just think he'll pull it off. And I am not saying this out of "hope", I'd be damn well pleased if Hillary wins. It's just everything seems to have gone his way this weekend after Hillary had a good thrusday and friday. He got back on track at the right moment.
Click to expand...
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Seth C said:
I swear to you right now, if Hillary wins Ohio by 10 points, even if Obama were to win Texas by just as much, it would be enough for the media to put her in the driver's seat and annoint her as the obvious winner.
Click to expand...
You know that's how it's going to play out. The headlines will all be about how she broke Obama's winning streak, got a must-win vicotory in Ohio, the momentum swung in her favor, etc.
 
T

Triumph

Banned
Rur0ni said:
Triumph Ohio pred am wrong? >:O I trusted you!
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Well, I was basing my prediction off of the polls that showed him closing the gap to 4%. If that SUSA poll is accurate (and they've been pretty accurate so far) then she'll win Ohio pretty easily, but I still say:

Texas is in the bag.
 
G

gkryhewy

Member
GhaleonEB said:
You know that's how it's going to play out. The headlines will all be about how she broke Obama's winning streak, got a must-win vicotory in Ohio, the momentum swung in her favor, etc.
Click to expand...

Not if she doesn't also win Texas.
 
T

Triumph

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
You know that's how it's going to play out. The headlines will all be about how she broke Obama's winning streak, got a must-win vicotory in Ohio, the momentum swung in her favor, etc.
Click to expand...
No, everything I've been watching is saying she has to win both. Granted if she DOES win Ohio and RI she will stay in, but if wins Texas he's going to net more delegates pretty much no matter what she does. She's done.
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
GhaleonEB said:
You know that's how it's going to play out. The headlines will all be about how she broke Obama's winning streak, got a must-win vicotory in Ohio, the momentum swung in her favor, etc.
Click to expand...


I really don't think so. If he wins Texas he's golden. She needs to win both.
 
S

Seth C

Member
GaimeGuy said:
Why does Ohio always fuck things up?

It's like they actively plan to fuck over the rest of the country
Click to expand...

It's because Ohio is the stinking asshole of the country. No sense denying it. I can smell the stench from across the river.

schuelma said:
I really don't think so. If he wins Texas he's golden. She needs to win both.
Click to expand...

Wait and see. Logic would see it the way you do, but that isn't how the media will twist it.
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Seth C said:
It's because Ohio is the stinking asshole of the country. No sense denying it. I can smell the stench from across the river.
Click to expand...


I was going to post a nice little defense of Ohio and then I remembered Columbus is there so I stopped.
 
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