Royal_Phalanx
Member
Could the centre-left get stronger in Germany (and maybe even form a left leaning government) and buck the current worldwide trend of the far-right getting stronger? Interesting, and very encouraging.
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Poll gap between Merkel's conservative party and SPD narrows (to 4%)
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Could the centre-left get stronger in Germany (and maybe even form a left leaning government) and buck the current worldwide trend of the far-right getting stronger? Interesting, and very encouraging.
Bedameister
Member
#KeineBremskraft
MEGA
I think Trump will be what pushes people back to left thinking again.
A year ago I was centre right, but with recent events I'm already at the centre.
D
Deleted member 1235
Unconfirmed Member
hopefully. the hard right trend is getting pretty old. Even though Merkel is a bit of a lefty if you hold it up to US politics..
Pretty much. Bring on the non-standard pronouns !
Delusibeta
Banned
New leader honeymoon. They'll be back down before the end of March, at the very latest.
WorriedCitizen
Member
I wouldn't trust these polls. Schulz is hyped right now and still feeds on his integer image from a long time ago when he got bullied by Berlusconi but he is a very questionable figure in my opinion. During the campaign more shit about him will surface, especially if Merkel feels threatened.
And i don't think the Trump situation will help Schulz in the long run because funny enough it is Schulz who is more similar to Trump then Merkel. An establishment figure whose face stands for the EU oligarchy like no other and purports that he wants to fight the establishment. It's all bullshit and people will see through it eventualy.
And i don't think the Trump situation will help Schulz in the long run because funny enough it is Schulz who is more similar to Trump then Merkel. An establishment figure whose face stands for the EU oligarchy like no other and purports that he wants to fight the establishment. It's all bullshit and people will see through it eventualy.
travisbickle
Member
Diprosalic
Banned
Gottkanzler!
The democrats are very slightly to the left of the centre right party here in Ireland. The US system is skewed way to the right. I mean when Sanders is called a far left candidate that tells you everything. Hes a standard new deal socialist
Extremely positve. Critical of the current politics.
I'd say most mainstream European centre-right parties are about the same as democrats.
Not even the right country
Link
The Autumn Wind
Oops, you're right. That's France. Can I use the excuse that I just woke up? If not, let's go with "Americans are ignorant of other countries' affairs."
Royal_Phalanx
Member
Chancellor Hohe Energie Schulz isn't too bad though.
As an American, I'm mostly just jealous that you Germans have two reasonable, high quality candidates as the frontrunners in Merkel and Schulz, while the far right nationalists are stagnant at barely above 10%. It seems like a democratic utopia compared to our fucked up politics.
I'd probably vote SPD based on my limited knowledge and what my friends who live in Berlin say, but I have a ton of respect for Merkel's bravery on the refugee issue and she's overall pretty reasonable. As long as whoever your chancellor ends up being is able and willing to stand up against Trump when necessary. I get the feeling the world will need Germany to have a larger presence on the international stage in the coming years.
I'd probably vote SPD based on my limited knowledge and what my friends who live in Berlin say, but I have a ton of respect for Merkel's bravery on the refugee issue and she's overall pretty reasonable. As long as whoever your chancellor ends up being is able and willing to stand up against Trump when necessary. I get the feeling the world will need Germany to have a larger presence on the international stage in the coming years.
1.21Gigawatts
Banned
I think I agree more with Schulz on most issues. I consider myself pretty left, but globalist.
However I also like Merkel and think she is a very good stateswoman and has a lot of experience dealing with characters like Putin, Berlusconi etc. which will help her dealing with Trump.
I don't know for certain who I am going to vote for yet, lets see how both candidates and parties present themselves during their campaigns.
But at the end of day I just don't see myself voting for CDU, even though I like Merkel, a considerable part of that party is just not my cup of tea.
I hope the SPD get its act together. Schulz is a good start.
However I also like Merkel and think she is a very good stateswoman and has a lot of experience dealing with characters like Putin, Berlusconi etc. which will help her dealing with Trump.
I don't know for certain who I am going to vote for yet, lets see how both candidates and parties present themselves during their campaigns.
But at the end of day I just don't see myself voting for CDU, even though I like Merkel, a considerable part of that party is just not my cup of tea.
I hope the SPD get its act together. Schulz is a good start.
Frankfurter
Member
It's difficult to tell really. If the "traditional" coalitions between either CDU/CSU and FDP, and SPD and the Greens don't have a majority (which is pretty likely for the CDU/CSU and FDP part, and 99% sure for the SPD and Greens part), there is either the coalition between the two major parties (CDU/CSU and SPD) or lots of uncharted waters.
All kinds of coalition have done on the states level, but not on the federal one yet. I'd actually say that the SPD has a little more options.
Edit: Looking at your part about the south, I guess you are refering to the CSU. If so, that party is part of the so called Union (CDU+CSU, both conservative parties) anyway. CDU runs in 15 federal states, CSU only in Bavaria (in the Southeast of Germany). Other than that, there is no such thing as a smaller party in the South of Germany.
It's so bizarre to me to see European (or really any non American) political thread and see people talking about nuances political positions. You guys mean you don't just have left and right and if you don't completely agree with that one platform, youre shit out of luck?
From what I can tell both candidates look pretty reasonable, though I only know broad strokes.
From what I can tell both candidates look pretty reasonable, though I only know broad strokes.
titiklabingapat
Member
What if they both end up eating at each other's vote and the far-right party ends up winning? Ho ho ho
Kinda like what happened with Duterte in the Philippines where the two lefty candidate ended up cannibalizing each other's support even tho they both have the majority, combined.
Kinda like what happened with Duterte in the Philippines where the two lefty candidate ended up cannibalizing each other's support even tho they both have the majority, combined.
There are downsides to our system (fragmentation into small parties, protest votes etc), but yeah, you can tell that the German system is one of the younger, more well thought out democratic systems in the world.
Not really possible in the current system, unless the AfD gets something like 40+ percent, which doesn't look likely.
The big centrist parties would rather do another grand coalition than allowing a right wing party to be part of the government (I hope).
Lord Frieza
Member
Do we think this is a realistic thing? What does the far right party (AFD, is it?) look like right now?
I've had this thought, too. I don't know what America will look like from her out, it's still too shaky, but I'm sure a lot of people around the world are looking at what Trump is doing in disbelief and being like, 'Christ, please not here.' I know there's some that want that shit over there, but I'm hoping it's not a minority at the end of the day.
Frankfurter
Member
These are not lefty candidates, to begin with
Merkels CDU is center-right (CSU a bit more to the right), Schulz SPD is center-left (closer to the center, than to the left, though).AfD is no position to win the elections (trending at around 11% right now, needing ~48%).
1.21Gigawatts
Banned
The only relevant party thats only in the south is the CSU and they always work together with the CDU, which is why Germans usually don't distinguish between them and just call them "the Union" and view them as one party, that just happens to have a differently named branch in Bavaria.
Basically, we can expect 6 parties to gain enough votes to have seats in the Bundestag.
1. Union (CDU/CSU)
2. SPD
3. AfD (far right)
4. The Green Party
5. The Left
6. FDP (we call them liberals, but liberal has a different meaning in Germany, its more a fiscally liberal party, pro business etc.. They fell below the 5% and didn't get any seats last time, but they restructured and their new head is quite good. Very pro EU, strong voice against racist far right sentiments)
The most recent polls(feb):
Union: 33-34%
SPD: 27-29%
AfD: 11-12%
Green: 8-9%
Left: 8-9%
FDP: 6%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
The only possible coalition at this point would be Union+SPD, the same thing we have currently, but this time with a stronger SPD. Merkel would still be chancellor, though.
Union will never form a coalition with AfD, Greens or Left, at least not on the national level. They have previously been in a coalition with the FDP but its unlikely that the FDP will surge to provide enough seats as a possible partner.
The only other somewhat realistic option, next to Union+SPD, would be SPD+Greens+Left.
They are currently lacking 3-7% to be able to form a coalition.
However, such a three-way usually doesn't quite work, especially when your coalition only has a narrow majority. You'd basically need to vote in 100% unity all the time, which is unlikely when you combine three parties with quite differing opinions.
It would be A LOT of work and government would work very slowly.
Unless a huge shake happens happens, we're going to get another coalition between Union and SPD with Merkel as chancellor, but this time with a stronger SPD.
So german government would move slightly to the left, but generally stay the same.
I fail to see similarity to Trump. He has a different political background, different world views and no business connections as far as i can see.
I dont remember him claiming he is anti-establishment. He does speak about "hard working" people and promises to help them, but thats as far as it goes riding the populism wave.
As far as i can see, he is pro-EU and against nationalism, which is fine by me. His political views are actually very similair to Merkel, which will make it difficult to score against her with different agenda's.
On the bright side, both are compatible with my personal political world view.
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