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Seven superhero films drop in 2017. Place your bets on which ones hit Box Office Gold

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K

kswiston

Member
UPDATED 4/13 - Now with gross estimate for Power Rangers and new trailers

Logan kicked off a very long 2017 blockbuster movie season this weekend. Typically, we have an annual thread asking people to make their predictions on what will end up being the biggest film of the year. There's not really a point of doing that this year (spoiler: The Last Jedi will win), so I figured it might be interesting to just concentrate on the many superhero films that will compete for your cinema dollars this year.

Typically, superheroes are synonymous with Marvel and DC. We have seven films releasing from those franchises this year: The Lego Batman Movie, Logan, Guardians of the Galaxy vol. 2, Wonder Woman, Spider-Man Homecoming, Thor Ragnarok, and The Justice League. Depending on how you want to define things, you could also throw in Power Rangers (based on a property that is more or less in the Japanese equivalent genre)


So let's break down this year's candidates:

Known Entities

The Lego Batman Movie
Domestic Gross: $175-177M (UPDATED 4/13)
Worldwide Gross: ~$310M

Logan
Domestic Gross: $225-230M (UPDATED 4/13)
Worldwide Gross: ~$625M

Power Rangers
Domestic Gross: $85-95M (UPDATED 4/16)
Worldwide Gross: $130M + gross in Japan/China (no clue on how well it will do in either of those)


Unreleased 2017 Superhero films


Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (May 5th)
Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hdv_6gl4gk (UPDATED 4/13)
Relevant Info:
- The first GotG film grossed $333M domestic and $773M worldwide
- Disney chose Guardians 2 to launch in the first weekend of May, which is unofficially the start of the summer movie season, and typically when the largest Marvel film of the year launches.
- Major competition includes King Arthur in weekend #2, and Alien Covenant in weekend #3


Wonder Woman (Jun 2nd)
Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Q8fG0TtVAY
Relevant Info:
- The first female led major superhero film in a decade
- The three previous DCEU films have made $290-330M domestic and $670-875M worldwide.
- The three previous DCEU films have Rotten Tomato scores between 26-55%
- Major competition includes Pirates of the Caribbean 5 the weekend before, The Mummy in weekend #2, and I suppose Cars 3 in weekend #3.


Spider-Man Homecoming (Jul 7th)
Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrzXIaTt99U
Relevant Info:
- A new take on the character financed and distributed by Sony, produced by Marvel Studios, and set in the MCU.
- The Spider-Man film were previously on a downward trend since Spider-Man 1 domestically and Spider-Man 3 worldwide. Amazing Spider-Man made $262M domestic and $758M. Amazing Spider-man 2 made $202M domestic and $702M worldwide.
- Spider-Man Homecoming will feature Iron Man in some capacity.
- Major competition includes Despicable Me 3 the weekend before, War of the Planet of the Apes in weekend #2, and both Dunkirk and Valerian and the City of 1000 planets (if it isn't this year's Jupiter ascending) in weekend #3.


Thor Ragnarok (Nov 3rd)
Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7MGUNV8MxU
Relevant Info:
- Sequel to winner of dozens of GAF polls
- Thor Ragnarok will co-star the Hulk and will feature Doctor Strange in some capacity
- The film releases in the same slot as Thor The Dark World ($206M domestic, $605M worldwide) and Doctor Strange ($233M domestic, $677M worldwide)
- Major competition includes some sort of Cloverfield sequel the weekend before, and Justice League in weekend #3.


Justice League (Nov 17th)
Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cxixDgHUYw (UPDATED 3/25)
Relevant Info:
- Releasing the weekend before Thanksgiving week. Notable releases in this timeslot include several Harry Potter Films, The Hunger Games sequels, and several Twilight sequels. Traditionally the weekend that gave us the biggest Fall/Winter opening weekends (pre-Star Wars in December)
- The three previous DCEU films have made $290-330M domestic and $670-875M worldwide.
- The three previous DCEU films have Rotten Tomato scores between 26-55%
- Major competition includes Thor Ragnarok 2 weekends before, and Coco and Murder on the Orient Express in weekend #2, and then nothing much until The Last Jedi.



So where do you see these films landing? Feel free to guess domestic/WW grosses for the 5 remaining openers, pick which films you think will succeed and which will bomb, or just provided a ranked list (e.g. Logan > The Lego Batman Movie > Monster Trucks)

I will update this thread as we get numbers throughout the year.
 
P

Prompto

Banned
Beginning of this year I guessed Spider-Man > Guardians 2 > Justice League > Thor 3 > Lego Batman > Wonder Woman > Logan.

Now I'm thinking Logan will end up making more than Wonder Woman and Lego Batman. Also Guardians 2 will beat Spider-Man for #1.

I have no idea about Power Rangers. I can see it being a huge hit or a flop.
 
F

F!ReW!Re

Member
I think Guardians of the Galaxy vol. 2 will take the cake this year.
Based on the very well received first film (word of mouth did wonders for it)
I don't think it'll be able to reach the 1 bil. $ Mark but 800Mil world wide seems reasonable (if it manages to be atleast as good/better compared to vol. 1)
 
D

Discotheque

Banned
Guardians
Justice League

Are guaranteed top 2 I think

I dunno what takes 3 between spiderman, Thor, wonder woman and Logan
 
S

Sohter.Nura

Member
Guardians of The Galaxy > Spiderman > Logan > Thor > Justice League > Lego Batman > Wonder Woman > Power Rangers.

I think every movie is gonna be a big success, except for Wonder Woman which is gonna be a tame success albeit far from a failure and Power Rangers which will be a mega flop :p

I will be happy to eat crow if all of these are a success =)
 
R

Rapscallion

Member
My guess is that Spider-man and Guardians are going to be the biggest. The way Logan is on track for, my guess is that it'll out perform the DC films and probably even Thor.

Justice League and Wonder Woman I imagine will be panned critically (like the other DC outings) but still perform well.

So my predicitons would be:
Spiderman
Guardians
Logan
Thor
Lego Batman
Justice League
Wonder Woman
Power Rangers
 
G

Gentleman Jack

Member
These threads are always fun to come back to and see how wrong you were.

Spiderman > Logan > GOTG2 > JL > Thor 3: The Darker World > WW > Lego Batman > Power Rangers.

I don't see GOTG2 topping the first movie.
I see Thor 3 overperforming easily now that a likeable superhero is in it. But ehhhh....
Pretty comfortable putting JL between the Marvel products. I look forward to the 'needs to make 300 billion worldwide to break even' hyperbole, but I'm also predicting weak Wonder Woman WoM to punch down the presales quite a bit, and only has a month to make a mark before Star Wars does to it what Civil War did to BvS.
I'm still bullish on Wonder Woman, I just don't know if audiences are really ready for it. I'll get more optimistic if Ghost In the Shell does gangbusters.
I seriously don't know who the Power Rangers movie is for. Everyone who watched the original is a parent by now, and maybe not having kids is putting the blinders on me. Is there any appeal to this movie besides TokuGAF?
 
S

Slayven

Member
Sohter.Nura said:
Guardians of The Galaxy > Spiderman > Logan > Thor > Justice League > Lego Batman > Wonder Woman > Power Rangers.

I think every movie is gonna be a big success, except for Wonder Woman which is gonna be a tame success albeit far from a failure and Power Rangers which will be a mega flop :p

I will be happy to eat crow if all of these are a success =)
Click to expand...

About how I feel, GOTG and Spiderman will slug it out for the top spots. Thor I think might be a darkhorse
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Guardians will make the most money.

JL will make second most.

Spiderman 3rd.

Logan after that most likely.
 
D

Dyl

Member
Guardians > Justice League > Spider-Man > Logan > Thor 3 > Wonder Woman > Lego Batman > Power Rangers
 
G

George Oscar Bluth II

Banned
1. Guardians of the Galaxy 2
2. Spider-Man: Homecoming
3. Thor: Ragnarok
4. Logan
5. Justice League
6. Wonder Woman
7. The LEGO Batman Movie

I have a feeling Thor is gonna have some really well received trailers and Hulk will give a boost. Spidey probably do much better than Amazing Spider-Man 2 but still not reach Guardians level. Guardians seems to be a definite hit.
 
B

Baroquemantic

Member
1. Spiderman: Homecoming
2. Guardians of the Galaxy 2
3. Logan
4. Justice League
5. Thot: Ragnarok
6. Wonder Woman
7. Lego Batman
8. Power Rangers
 
A

ArgyleReptile

Banned
For some reason I had it in my mind that Wonder Woman was releasing in March. I was wondering why they weren't pushing any trailers.

Anyways...

1. Guardians 2
2. Spider-Man: Homecoming
3. Justice League
4. Power Rangers
5. Wonder Woman
7. Logan
8. Thor 3: Ragnarok
9. Lego Batman

Actually, Lego Batman will probably make more than Thor.
 
J

J_Viper

Member
Discotheque said:
Guardians
Justice League

Are guaranteed top 2 I think
Click to expand...

I'm thinking this as well, but if JL bombs critically, Thor could take second place.

It's easy to write Thor off based off the previous films, but there's one hell of a creative team and cast on board for this, and it'll certainly make a difference.

Spidey looks to have pretty heavy competition.

I forget the production split on that one, is Sony calling the shots or is Marvel? If it's the former, then there's a chance it might turn out to be not very good at all.

WW will probably end up last on the list.
 
G

Gentleman Jack

Member
Ten months from now either people are really gonna be proud of their prediction that JL doesn't break $350M WW or we're going to have a discussion about 'but I thought we were talking domestic' while folks walk back that bold prediction.
 
B

BumRush

Member
Awesome thread, Swiss.

I think GotG2 will surprise and take the crown.

Edit: reading the rest of the thread, it isn't a surprise
 
N

NMFried

Member
I think Guardians and Spider-Man will both crack $1 billion WW. Guardians has had fantastic word of mouth and mindshare since the first and RDJ + Spider-Man will surely equal a cool billy.

Other predictions:

Wonder Woman - $500 million WW
Justice League - $800 million WW
Thor Ragnarok - $650 million WW
Power Rangers - $300 million WW (But like $80 mil stateside. I just don't see it clicking)

So...

1. Guardians of the Galaxy 2
2. Spider-Man: Homecoming
3. Justice League
4. Thor Ragnarok
5. Wonder Woman
6. Power Rangers

Logan will probably pull a cool $600 or $700 million WW by its end.
 
T

Tobor

Member
Guardians > Spider-Man > Thor: HULK!!! > some other stuff.

The only question is I have is which ones cross a billion? Guardians could do it. Spider-Man could do it.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Guardians > Justice League > Spidey > Thor > Logan > Wonder Woman > Lego Batman > Power Rangers

Guardians will break a bill. Nothing else will.
 
B

border

Member
Why is Guardians of the Galaxy considered a superhero movie?

Moreover, why is GotG considered a superhero movie when Valerian isn't?
 
G

Gentleman Jack

Member
Tobor said:
Guardians > Spider-Man > Thor: HULK!!! > some other stuff.

The only question is I have is which ones cross a billion? Guardians could do it. Spider-Man could do it.
Click to expand...

Only one of the six superhero movies from 2016 (seven if you count TMNT) broke a bil WW and that was Civil War.

Of the ones coming out this year I honestly only realistically see Spiderman with that potential. I'm not confident in predicting an extra $200M for GOTG2 and an extra $350M for Thor out of nowhere.

border said:
Why is Guardians of the Galaxy considered a superhero movie?

Moreover, why is GotG considered a superhero movie when Valerian isn't?
Click to expand...

Marvel only makes superhero movies as far as I'm concerned.

And if we're going to count Valerian I'm going to put it between Lego Batman and Power Rangers.
 
B

BumRush

Member
border said:
Why is Guardians of the Galaxy considered a superhero movie?

Moreover, why is GotG considered a superhero movie when Valerian isn't?
Click to expand...

Isn't 'super powered beings defending humanity from super powered villains' the definition of superhero movie?
 
D

demosthenes

Member
Cool OP. Very organized too.

I think it will fall as follows:
GOTG2
Spider Man
Justice League
Logan
Wonder Woman
Thor
Lego Batman
Power Rangers

If Wonder Woman isn't good, I fear for Justice League. Actually the Spider Man competition is tough whereas Justice League doesn't have much. Could cause the switch there.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Gentleman Jack said:
Only one of the six superhero movies from 2016 (seven if you count TMNT) broke a bil WW and that was Civil War.

Of the ones coming out this year I honestly only realistically see Spiderman with that potential. I'm not confident in predicting an extra $200M for GOTG2 and an extra $350M for Thor out of nowhere.
Click to expand...

Don't forget about the exchange rate differences.

Here are the relevant prequels and related films if recent international exchange rates were used instead of rates from 3-4 years ago:

Batman v Superman - $860M
Guardians of the Galaxy - $685M
Amazing Spider-man - $665M
X-Men: Days of Future Past - $645M
Man of Steel - $600M
Thor The Dark World - $550M
 
O

overcast

Member
That spider man competition is tough manZ

I'll go with:

1) Guardians of the Galaxy 2
2) Justice League
3) Thor
4) Spider Man: Homecoming
4) Wonder Woman
5) Logan
6) Lego Batman

Logan and Wonder Woman are gonna be very close. GOTG and Justice League will both be above a billion. Thor will be close. I just think this Thor will be a huge hit with the audiences.

Logan will probably be the best movie 🌚
 
T

torre_avenue

Banned
1. Guardians 2.
2. Spider-Man
3. Justice League
4. Logan
5. Thor 3
6. Wonder Woman
7. Lego Batman

Guardians is going to gross a billion no doubt, Spider-Man done right is going to get very close to that considering ASM2 grossed $709 million and it was rubbish. Justice League is the first time all these heroes have been together and will gross at least as much as BvS, maybe more if it's any good. Logan is doing very well critically, and doing what audiences want so it'll do well. Thor 3 will be weird and quirky and will do Dr. Strange numbers, so around ~$700 million. Wonder Woman might be a breakout hit, but really nothing I've seen backs that up, so I'll guess it'll be a conservative $600 million or so because there's no real buzz for it despite it being less than 2 months away.
 
B

Bleepey

Member
I think based on revenue

Spiderman
Justice League
Wonder Woman
Guardians
Lego
Thor
Logan

DC are hard to track. Like if Wonder Woman hits the crowd running that can give them god momentum. Wonder Woman is THE female superhero and it's been a long time coming. Snyder still has the stink of BVS on him but maybe he'll be more restrained and add more levity for his detractors.. DC's SS can get $3/4 billion without China and negative reviews. About the same as Guardians with positive reviews and China.
 
I

inky

Member
Some of you people not putting JL in the top 2 are nuts. It might have a 10% on RT but it will still make a shitton of dough.
 
O

overcast

Member
Interesting that there are no august releases this year in that slot that Guardians made legit.

In general I believe this is a highly competitive and exciting year for blockbusters.
 
P

Prompto

Banned
kswiston said:
Don't forget about the exchange rate differences.

Here are the relevant prequels and related films if recent international exchange rates were used instead of rates from 3-4 years ago:

Batman v Superman - $860M
Guardians of the Galaxy - $685M
Amazing Spider-man - $665M
X-Men: Days of Future Past - $645M
Man of Steel - $600M
Thor The Dark World - $550M
Click to expand...
Damn that's quite the drop for all of them. Didn't realize it was that bad.
 
S

Schlorgan

Member
Guardians will be big (over $1B)

JL will end up lower than BvS ($750M-$800M).

Spider-Man could go really huge ($1B+) or just be average* ($750M). I'm really not sure how it'll do.

Thor will do around the same or more than JL.

Wonder Woman will barely, if even, hit $500M.

*average for Spider-Man films
 
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