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Seven superhero films drop in 2017. Place your bets on which ones hit Box Office Gold
- Thread starter kswiston
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TJ Verboten
Member
1. Guardians 2 - 955 ww
Best release slot, first was beloved, 2nd has good buzz too,
I think audiences are most hungry for this, plus Baby Groot
2. Logan - 733 ww
We saw how incredibly well Deadpool did last yr and I expect Logan, which is already a big hit, to keep rolling despite Hugh Jackman skipping leg day, plus it being his final role and the great word of mouth.
3. Spiderman: Homecoming - 730 ww
Tom Holland was great in CW, and yeah it has Downey to juice it, but this strikes me as fatigue fatigue fatigue being the 2nd reboot since 02 and the 6th Spidey solo movie.
Im mostly looking forward to it (mainly the high school stuff + Michael Keaton) but assuming it's good, I dont think there's enough hook here to beat the fatigue factor.
And it has the toughest competition on the list.
4. Thor: Ragnarok - 680 ww
Mainstream audiences dont know Taika Waititi, but Im betting this will be a surprise hit for them, I think the marketing team will be able to sell how this is a different, more unpredictable zany outer space realms amusing superhero movie, plus Hulk should help a bit.
Dr. Strange just made 677 mil, so even though this is the 3rd Thor film, I think good word of mouth will inch this just past Strange. Though Strange had the Cumberbatch factor which presuambly helped a bit overseas, so this will be close.
5. Justice League - 675 ww
Im going out on a limb here but here goes
BvS was a turkey with audiences, Justice League is even more likely to be a turkey when you combine Snyder's divisive approach to the characters, which this time adds the layer of WB meddling/oversight which presuambly occurred on the shoot for Justice League.
With that kind of environment, total speculation but I can imagine Snyder's heart not being into this as much, resulting in a worse movie.
Plus critics largely arent Snyder fans, so I think this could be the nadir of the DCEU in terms of negative perception (quality wise Im sure Suicide Squad will still hold the crown for worst DCEU movie).
Certainly even with negative reviews the DCEU movies have pulled in significant revenue, but Im leaning on the audience just not being overly hungry to catch this in theaters.
The exhange rates will hurt too.
Lastly, mainstream audiences had 40 yrs of movie history associated with Batman and Superman, so their first time on screen together was a strong hook (though i still think making it about them fighting each other was a bit of a turn off to the non comic reader, i.e. why would they fight?)
Justice League doesnt have that, plus again it's following something that was received poorly.
6. Wonder Woman - 525 ww
Rooting for this, footage has mostly looked pretty good, rumors/buzz surrounding it are more concerning, especially with the DCEU's trackrecord. Still, it shouldnt be that hard to make a poor man's the First Avenger (and im a big fan of the First Avenger) so I suspect Patty Jenkins found a way to deliver something pretty decent, plus it has Chris Pine's likability. Pirate's could hurt it some but first female led superhero movie in a decade, still some cache IP in the name Wonder Woman, plus a hopefully decent movie should be enough for a half decent box office run.
7. Lego Batman - 325 ww
Splitting the difference in kswiston's projection range.
8. Power Rangers - 240 ww
Just taking a shot in the dark.
Best release slot, first was beloved, 2nd has good buzz too,
I think audiences are most hungry for this, plus Baby Groot
2. Logan - 733 ww
We saw how incredibly well Deadpool did last yr and I expect Logan, which is already a big hit, to keep rolling despite Hugh Jackman skipping leg day, plus it being his final role and the great word of mouth.
3. Spiderman: Homecoming - 730 ww
Tom Holland was great in CW, and yeah it has Downey to juice it, but this strikes me as fatigue fatigue fatigue being the 2nd reboot since 02 and the 6th Spidey solo movie.
Im mostly looking forward to it (mainly the high school stuff + Michael Keaton) but assuming it's good, I dont think there's enough hook here to beat the fatigue factor.
And it has the toughest competition on the list.
4. Thor: Ragnarok - 680 ww
Mainstream audiences dont know Taika Waititi, but Im betting this will be a surprise hit for them, I think the marketing team will be able to sell how this is a different, more unpredictable zany outer space realms amusing superhero movie, plus Hulk should help a bit.
Dr. Strange just made 677 mil, so even though this is the 3rd Thor film, I think good word of mouth will inch this just past Strange. Though Strange had the Cumberbatch factor which presuambly helped a bit overseas, so this will be close.
5. Justice League - 675 ww
Im going out on a limb here but here goes
BvS was a turkey with audiences, Justice League is even more likely to be a turkey when you combine Snyder's divisive approach to the characters, which this time adds the layer of WB meddling/oversight which presuambly occurred on the shoot for Justice League.
With that kind of environment, total speculation but I can imagine Snyder's heart not being into this as much, resulting in a worse movie.
Plus critics largely arent Snyder fans, so I think this could be the nadir of the DCEU in terms of negative perception (quality wise Im sure Suicide Squad will still hold the crown for worst DCEU movie).
Certainly even with negative reviews the DCEU movies have pulled in significant revenue, but Im leaning on the audience just not being overly hungry to catch this in theaters.
The exhange rates will hurt too.
Lastly, mainstream audiences had 40 yrs of movie history associated with Batman and Superman, so their first time on screen together was a strong hook (though i still think making it about them fighting each other was a bit of a turn off to the non comic reader, i.e. why would they fight?)
Justice League doesnt have that, plus again it's following something that was received poorly.
6. Wonder Woman - 525 ww
Rooting for this, footage has mostly looked pretty good, rumors/buzz surrounding it are more concerning, especially with the DCEU's trackrecord. Still, it shouldnt be that hard to make a poor man's the First Avenger (and im a big fan of the First Avenger) so I suspect Patty Jenkins found a way to deliver something pretty decent, plus it has Chris Pine's likability. Pirate's could hurt it some but first female led superhero movie in a decade, still some cache IP in the name Wonder Woman, plus a hopefully decent movie should be enough for a half decent box office run.
7. Lego Batman - 325 ww
Splitting the difference in kswiston's projection range.
8. Power Rangers - 240 ww
Just taking a shot in the dark.
gutter_trash
Banned
Spider-Man Homecoming will mopp up the Box Offiice.
Gardians of the Galaxy Vol.2 will top the reviews, rt, and overal quality.
IMO, as a Spdiey fan, I am rooting for GOTGv2 to win 2017
Gardians of the Galaxy Vol.2 will top the reviews, rt, and overal quality.
IMO, as a Spdiey fan, I am rooting for GOTGv2 to win 2017
Boombloxer
Member
I don't think any of the films are guaranteed a billion.
That said, I don't think JL is guaranteed to make 800M either. It's a team up movie with no prior good team-building outside of Batman and Wonder Woman.
I can't come up with an all-encompassing definition of a superhero movie. At least not one that can be concisely stated. In some sense though, it should be about a normal person suddenly gaining extraordinary powers and using those powers for good.....and dealing with the responsibility that it entails. Even that definition fails to take into account someone like Batman, who has no real powers beyond what most humans are capable of.
I tend to object to categorizing Guardians of the Galaxy as a superhero film because, as far as I can recall, nobody in the movie has extraordinary powers. None of them are light years beyond the god-given talents and abilities of their race or species. It's a science-fiction space opera.....nothing about it really strikes me as a superhero film. If it were made without any involvement with Marvel I doubt anyone would call it such.
Justice League isnt guaranteed shit with DCEU track record
Boombloxer
Member
It honestly sounds like you don't know anything about the group, or haven't actually seen the movie. Take a visit to Wikipedia or YouTube.
It's a superhero film based on comics, there are no other primary genres it matches. It's not Road to Perdition or A History of Violence in terms of showing human and not superhuman ability. You're just wrong.
What is it then that differentiates Guardians of the Galaxy from other 2017 films not mentioned in the OP (Valerian, Ghost in the Shell, Transformers)? Is Star Wars a superhero movie? Is The Matrix a superhero movie? How about John Wick? I am not really opposed to a broader definition of the superhero genre, but the current one just seems weirdly selective.
I think you can draw a distinction that superheroes don a costume and often maintain a secret identity, but even that falls apart in many instances (including GotG).
Skel1ingt0n
I can't *believe* these lazy developers keep making file sizes so damn large. Btw, how does technology work?
Guys, ASM2 made over 700MM and it wasn't very good, and was coming off the most pointless reboot in comic book movie history.
Spider-Man will be $800MM bare minimum. It's gonna be huge. Kids still fucking adore SM, and grown-ups love him. SM is arguably the most recognizable hero after Supes and Batman... don't forget that. Yes, even more than post-RDJ iron man.
Spider-Man will be $800MM bare minimum. It's gonna be huge. Kids still fucking adore SM, and grown-ups love him. SM is arguably the most recognizable hero after Supes and Batman... don't forget that. Yes, even more than post-RDJ iron man.
milanbaros
Member?
hodayathink
Member
The movie outright says that Peter is more than human at the end. Rocket is the result of genetic experiments on his race. Drax and Gamora were both made to be less powerful than their comic book counterparts, but we can easily assume that both are at or near the top of abilities of their respective races. Now just because none of them can fly or project energy or anything like that doesn't mean they aren't well above the god-given talents of their race.
Discotheque
Banned
Okay. I love the delusions people have about these movies just because they hate them.
Look at the box office track record of the last two movies. This will be big
Frozenprince
Banned
Guardians will cruise to an easy billion.
Conversely though, what is there to show that they are extraordinarily beyond the natural talents of their race? I tend to think of GotG as a heist movie full of people who are gifted specialists, but not preternaturally gifted. There's nothing there that indicates they are as head-and-shoulders above their peers as Peter Parker or the Hulk. Starlord is a regular Joe, and I think that actually helps his character in a meaningful way.
Boombloxer
Member
It's not weirdly selective. There's a simple distinction that you're missing; the source material is comics and all of the individuals have super human abilities, regardless of how many jokes they make.
Also this. It's not that hard.
jack_package_200
Banned
What distinction am I missing? Comic books are the source material for Valerian and Ghost in the Shell, and both feature protagonists with superhuman abilities.
I wouldn't really consider "source material" to be a defining aspect of any film genre -- you can make a superhero movie that isn't based on a comic book (see also: The Incredibles, Sharkboy & Lava Girl, Hancock, Unbreakable).
Principate
Saint Titanfall
What you mean the track record of Oscar awards and 700k+
hodayathink
Member
The fact that Peter can touch an Infinity Stone that had been obliterating things around it in the movie. The fact that Rocket is a racoon that can talk (and again, the movie states he was genetically manipulated).
jadedm17
Member
Nailed it
MugiwaraCole
Member
In terms of box office from highest to lowest: Spidey, Guardians, Justice League, Thor, Wonder Woman, Logan.
In terms of critical praise/my opinion on their quality, from best to worst: Spidey, Guardians, Thor, Wonder Woman, Logan, Justice League.
In terms of critical praise/my opinion on their quality, from best to worst: Spidey, Guardians, Thor, Wonder Woman, Logan, Justice League.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
GAF is terrible and I mean terrible at predicting DC box office.
twinturbo2
butthurt Heat fan
The Marvel Studios movies are pretty much locks, we know Logan came out of the gate storming, and GOTG2, I'm there day one. Thor and Spider-Man will do well based on brand recognition. As for DC... they got Lego Batman doing well.
Power Rangers will bomb hard, who asked for a grimdark reboot of that?
Power Rangers will bomb hard, who asked for a grimdark reboot of that?
Glass Rebel
Member
I'm gonna say it now: If Homecoming doesn't break 1b, I'll see it as a disappointment. Spidey + Iron Man + MCU should be a winning formula, despite Sony poisoning the well.
People were burned by BvS not even clearing the billion and C-tier heroes of the competition beating it handily.
People were burned by BvS not even clearing the billion and C-tier heroes of the competition beating it handily.
Sad Affleck
Member
I agree with all of this.
May as well take a stab:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - $900m
2. Justice League - $850m
3. Spider-Man: Homecoming - $820m
4. Logan - $680m
5. Thor Ragnarok - $675m
6. Wonder Woman - $600m
7. Lego Batman - $310m
8. Power Rangers - $190m
Many successes but none reaching a billion.
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - $900m
2. Justice League - $850m
3. Spider-Man: Homecoming - $820m
4. Logan - $680m
5. Thor Ragnarok - $675m
6. Wonder Woman - $600m
7. Lego Batman - $310m
8. Power Rangers - $190m
Many successes but none reaching a billion.
SiegfriedFM
Member
Valerian isn't a superhero, he's just brave and has a bunch of gadgets and a ship. Although that also applies to Starlord. Either way, Valerian isn't super buff, so he's more like Han Solo than Batman.
Regardless of the fact, of course, that Valerian predates and possibly inspired Han Solo to begin with.
StWilson85
Member
You people thinking GOTG is going to outgross Spiderman are taking crazy pills.
Im weirdly optimistic on Thor, interesting director with a talent for comedy, good cast. If it gets good reviews i can see it doing very well.
Spiderman could be tight but i'm worried itll end up generic. being MCU Spidey though its going to sit on top of popular/geek culture like an 800 pound gorilla. I think everyone will see it.
JL i dunno the DC/WB movies have had a poor reception i dont know if it can change the DC narative unless its truly exceptional.
That being said i think its spideys or GOTG to lose.
Spiderman could be tight but i'm worried itll end up generic. being MCU Spidey though its going to sit on top of popular/geek culture like an 800 pound gorilla. I think everyone will see it.
JL i dunno the DC/WB movies have had a poor reception i dont know if it can change the DC narative unless its truly exceptional.
That being said i think its spideys or GOTG to lose.
The Salt Life
Banned
Spider-man I think is the most recognizable super hero period, going on 40+ years now. Sells the most merchandise out of everyone as well, pretty sure that will continue after this film.
Kenzodielocke
Banned
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 : 1.1bn
- Spider-Man: Homecoming : 860m
- Justice League : 780m
- Logan : 550m
- Thor: Ragnarok : 480m
- Wonder Woman : 390m
Disclaimer: I am not good at this.
HeartlessNobody213
Member
I don't think it's that crazy. The box office for Spidey has went down with each film and while I think Homecoming will do better than ASM2, it does have the highest level of competition out of all the other comic book movies.
Meanwhile GOTG will have May pretty much all to itself.
I can totally see that to be honest. GOTG 2 would would have to improve on the original's WW gross by nearly 25% to top a billion so, even with the prime summer spot, it's a fairly big ask.
Absolutely. How can a superhero film written by the guys that wrote and directed that Vacation reboot starring Ed Helms miss?
Guardians will do better than the first one, probably significantly so. Even people who dislike superheroes seem to like GotG. ww: 850-950 million.
JL will do on par or slightly beneath BvS. BvS was the first blockbuster to have the two iconic heroes clash and was the first live action Batman flick after the highly reverred Nolan trilogy. This one doesn't have that going for it. ww: 750-850 million.
Wonder Woman I don't know. I don't think she is that well known in Europe but she is iconic in the US. My guess is 550-650 million ww? Gut feeling says even lower.
Thor 3 will do good, probably around 700 million ww.
Spidey will do good as well, between 750-800 million ww. Sony harmed the ip a bit I feel, so this one has to create some goodwill.
JL will do on par or slightly beneath BvS. BvS was the first blockbuster to have the two iconic heroes clash and was the first live action Batman flick after the highly reverred Nolan trilogy. This one doesn't have that going for it. ww: 750-850 million.
Wonder Woman I don't know. I don't think she is that well known in Europe but she is iconic in the US. My guess is 550-650 million ww? Gut feeling says even lower.
Thor 3 will do good, probably around 700 million ww.
Spidey will do good as well, between 750-800 million ww. Sony harmed the ip a bit I feel, so this one has to create some goodwill.
MugiwaraCole
Member
Amazing Spidey 2 grossed over $700 M worldwide. Homecoming is going to be a fucking hit unless the movie somehow sucks. And even then, that didn't stop BVS or Suicide Squad from getting theirs. Spidey's a virtual lock.
Glass Rebel
Member
If Spidey doesn't cross 1b, it'd be the first movie with RDJ since Avengers.
If GotG2 crosses 1b, it'd be the first movie without RDJ to do so.
If GotG2 crosses 1b, it'd be the first movie without RDJ to do so.
Exchange rates were much better in 2014 than they are now. Amazing Spider-man 2 would have been a $600M film if it was released with the same exchange rates as Suicide Squad had. Amazing Spider-Man 1 would have been around $665M. Spider-man Homecoming will need huge gains to pass $1B.
If Iron Man has a substantial role in the film, that may help, but I was under the impression that he was more of a cameo.
You're not going to get bums on seats after BvS and Suicide Squad unless reviews are great for Justice League.
Wonder Women might be more appealing to people to give a shot, leading lady, time periods and Chris Pine is quite popular. It's the only DC film I'm mildly interested in seeing.
Wonder Women might be more appealing to people to give a shot, leading lady, time periods and Chris Pine is quite popular. It's the only DC film I'm mildly interested in seeing.
You expect Thor 3 to be Marvel's first post-Avengers bomb?
You mean BvS, the movie that underperformed and didn't meet anyone's expectations and couldn't even crack a billion with Batman and Superman in it?
BvS's box office is entirely the reason people are dialing back their expectations on Justice League, DC already played their trump card of having their biggest heroes on the screen at once and it got out-grossed in the US by Deadpool of all people
Albino_Yeti
Member
Two words: Baby Groot.
He will singlehandely propel Guardians to the top spot, as well as be on every kids backpack and lunchbox for the next year or so.
He will singlehandely propel Guardians to the top spot, as well as be on every kids backpack and lunchbox for the next year or so.
I say Spiderman underperforms. Audiences haven't been crazy about Tom being the new Spiderman and it could be brought down by Marvel cookie cutter style and more importantly the high school setting (Seems to be a more child oriented movie compared to past movies), so I say it does ASM numbers. I'd be happy to be proven wrong.
B.O. will be:
- GOTG 2
- JL
- SM
- WW
- Logan
- Thor 3 The Dark World 2
B.O. will be:
- GOTG 2
- JL
- SM
- WW
- Logan
- Thor 3 The Dark World 2
Boombloxer
Member
For comics, it is, as their powers and origin stories have pretty strong ties to the movies in some way. And all of the films you mentioned use well-known comic tropes; origin stories, secret identity, supervillain, etc.
Honestly, I just think you're struggling to make a distinction that no one thinks about because it isn't really important.
It's not hate to dial back expectations after BvS couldn't make 900M. Will the same three plus Cyborg, Flash and Aquaman get to $1B+? It's a legit argument. You don't have to like the argument, but it's not out of left field.
Pretty much. it's something to think about.
I feel like years ago this was probably the argument against the Russo brothers as well.
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