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So, when do you expect PS5 and the Xbox One successor tba? And what specs?
- Thread starter Insane Metal
- Start date
Presumably Sony will want to Slim the Pro at some point. If that happens in two years - which is a year sooner than the new Slim - maybe we'll see something in 2022?
It might allow MS to release first, but they'd presumably be fighting an even bigger install base by then. My guess it depends on how Sony overall are doing; if they have the reserves and desire to let MS launch and then leapfrog them a year or so later with more powerful, cheaper, hardware, while perhaps investing in something like PSVR 2.
Also it sounds really weird to use the year 2022 as an actual time frame and not part of a sci-fi plot.
Edit
That's assuming they don't want a machine to go along with proslim. I wonder if they'd give up that install base by making the machines incompatible with each other - though based on what cerny said they might.
It might allow MS to release first, but they'd presumably be fighting an even bigger install base by then. My guess it depends on how Sony overall are doing; if they have the reserves and desire to let MS launch and then leapfrog them a year or so later with more powerful, cheaper, hardware, while perhaps investing in something like PSVR 2.
Also it sounds really weird to use the year 2022 as an actual time frame and not part of a sci-fi plot.
Edit
That's assuming they don't want a machine to go along with proslim. I wonder if they'd give up that install base by making the machines incompatible with each other - though based on what cerny said they might.
anothertech
Member
Holliday 2019 ps5. They won't wait longer than that when the superior tech is available.
After reading about HBM recently, I think HBM 3 is possible for ps5 in that timeframe. Everyone will say it's too expensive or not feasible early on in 2019, but it will be a GDDR5 2013 situation imo.
Ryzen next iteration, hbm3, 20-30tf gpu. Won't seem all that impressive in 3 years tbh.
Would be much more exciting if they wait a year, and release the same time as Xbox tho, I will admit. Really brings some competition to the table when they go head to head.
After reading about HBM recently, I think HBM 3 is possible for ps5 in that timeframe. Everyone will say it's too expensive or not feasible early on in 2019, but it will be a GDDR5 2013 situation imo.
Ryzen next iteration, hbm3, 20-30tf gpu. Won't seem all that impressive in 3 years tbh.
Would be much more exciting if they wait a year, and release the same time as Xbox tho, I will admit. Really brings some competition to the table when they go head to head.
neurosisxeno
Member
Not gonna happen. As it is HBM still only exists on 3 cards--the 3 cards in the R9 Fury lineup. Those came out over a year ago and we haven't seen a single card with it since then. HBM1 had a lot of flaws, but HBM2 will be more expensive and difficult to work with, which means we probably won't see a single card with HBM2 get a wide release until the end of this year, with it taking another 2-3 years for it to be present on all high-end cards. Then it will take equally as long for HBM3 to get rolled out.
HBM inherently costs more than DRAM because you have to deal with a third party doing the TSV connection required to get the memory on the chip (at least that's how it worked with HBM1 and I believe 2). It's more likely we'll see GDDR5X or it's successor have wide adaptation by 2019 than HBM3 or even HBM2.
I'd say 2020 would be a safe bet. With PS4 Pro just releasing in 2016, and Scorpio in 2017, it doesn't seem like anyone is rushing to get another console out anytime soon.
In terms of specs, I don't know shit about tech, but I feel that Microsoft and Sony sees the impact of backwards compatability and would offer it on launch for their perspective new consoles. Since things are much more unified in terms of game development this shouldn't be an issue.
I also think that VR will be a huge selling points for those future consoles. We're in the baby steps of VR now but by 2020 we should see the tech grow tremendously and Microsoft and Sony will definitely take advantage of that.
And just for shits and giggles, Switch 2, a hardware revision of the Switch with better graphical capabilities and more power, would launch either fall 2019 or early 2020.
In terms of specs, I don't know shit about tech, but I feel that Microsoft and Sony sees the impact of backwards compatability and would offer it on launch for their perspective new consoles. Since things are much more unified in terms of game development this shouldn't be an issue.
I also think that VR will be a huge selling points for those future consoles. We're in the baby steps of VR now but by 2020 we should see the tech grow tremendously and Microsoft and Sony will definitely take advantage of that.
And just for shits and giggles, Switch 2, a hardware revision of the Switch with better graphical capabilities and more power, would launch either fall 2019 or early 2020.
Where can they get the power boost from?
Cost-effective 7nm likely not ready by 2019.
This sounds delicious. It also sounds like engines will have to be rewritten to take advantage
I don't see the PS5 coming out until at least 2020 because of this. AMD and GF are skipping 10nm and heading directly to 7nm. The release date for the PS5 will be dictated on AMD and GF's schedule for mass manufacturing 7nm APUs.
MS can wait a bit longer if the Scorpio is as powerful as MS claims it to be.
righthandmouse
Banned
I'm gonna try to be honest here. I expect both consoles to be underpowered again.I have a feeling my ancient 980 will be more powerful than them. I picture a future of eye candy and 30fps. Hopefully they say fuck it and say "from now on we will release all our games on pc as well". It's a win win in that case. I'll still complain though
Lion Heart
Banned
Some things I want:
What I think will happen:
- A significant power jump. I'm hoping at least 12-14 terrys.
- Resolution targets maintained at 1080p (more on this below)
- 24 gigs of Ram.
- Some time for the industry to coast on current gen. Its not ready for next gen and a lot of studios have only released one game so far. If they manage to release another one this gen, that takes them out of any respectable launch timeframe for the next game. If ND releases TLOU2 in 2019, they aren't releasing a PS5 game til when? 60% through? At least...
- The perfect time would be 2021, simply to get devs working on current gen games now sufficient time to transition to the new gen. Consoles really need positive momentum for the health of the industry and top tier devs need to release games early.
What I think will happen:
- Games target 4k. This will result in a minimal upgrade outside of resolution due to the harsh power requirements of 4k. If it has to be done, hopefully they continue the checkerboard rendering method. I would love 1080p with a "Pro" revision 2-3 years later giving 4k gamers what they want. Sadly I can't see 1080p being standard.
- 2019 release. Scorpio will push Sony to release a console faster since they wouldn't want to be the weaker console for more than 2 years to maintain their image. MS will then have to respond but it would be a year later. They definitely don't want to concede a year advantage though, tricky spot to be in.
Hey friend the 980 is only slightly better than this year's Scorpio.
I don't think HBM3 is going to be available for consoles coming out in 2019. HBM3 is meant to be out *by* 2020, with 2019 being the most optimistic, and even that's like HBM2 was in 2016, which got pushed to 2017 for high-end gaming cards (Vega) and Nvidia might not have GTX cards with HBM2 until Volta in early 2018. But we'll see.
http://www.tweaktown.com/news/53583/hbm3-released-2020-offers-more-bandwidth-less-power/index.html
-PS5 in 2019 probably means HBM2 most likely
-PS5 in 2020 means either HBM2 or possibly HBM3
-Xbox Next in 2021 would allow enough time for HBM3
As for process tech: 2019-2020 means 7nm for sure (7nm is like 10nm in size i think). It's also looking more and more likely that EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) isn't going to be ready in time for 7nm, it most likely starts with 5nm. Both of which I would not expect until 2021.
homelessbaby
Member
I'd really like the next gen to be the last one. Tired of upgrading.
Games don't need to look much better than they are, just make it more efficient, make the OS faster, load times quicker, don't throttle download speeds on PSN, don't sound like a hoover having a baby, that's all I want.
Games don't need to look much better than they are, just make it more efficient, make the OS faster, load times quicker, don't throttle download speeds on PSN, don't sound like a hoover having a baby, that's all I want.
/Thread
anothertech
Member
7nm and HBM3 is possible by Holliday 2019. Not the most likely, but neither was 8 gigs of GDDR5 in a 2013 console aimed at $399 launch.
If they stick with AMD for the APU, I can see it as quite possible and within budget tbh.
MeisterLeder
Banned
Man a lot of people will be pretty mad/disappointed when nothing happens in 2019.
Sry its just not going to happen.
This gen will take a little longer again. And i mean we got Upgrades for current systems which doesnt make it really bad at all.
It was annoying last gen when we stuck with Hardware from 2005 until 2013.
But with the current systems everything is scalable. I think a new gen of consoles wont pop up until 2021 or 2022.
Sry its just not going to happen.
This gen will take a little longer again. And i mean we got Upgrades for current systems which doesnt make it really bad at all.
It was annoying last gen when we stuck with Hardware from 2005 until 2013.
But with the current systems everything is scalable. I think a new gen of consoles wont pop up until 2021 or 2022.
Mark Cerny implied that full generations are not gone, that PS4 Pro arrives during the middle of the PS4 generation.
JordanN
Banned
I honestly think if these consoles were coming sooner, we would be hearing it from developers.
Remember at the end of the PS3/360 gen, studios like Crytek or EA Dice were crying every day "Man, I wish we could have 8GB ram. We just need more memory. If Sony/MS are listening, please just give us more ram"
But now, how often do we hear developers whine anymore? They've all pretty much gone silent.
ronaldthump
Member
Something more next genny. The exact specs never mattered too much. Just a substantial leap forward
The games ecosystem will matter more to me.
The games ecosystem will matter more to me.
Mambo Maniac
Neo Member
Ps5 - releases no earlier than 2020
Completely backwards compatible with PS4
Backwards compatible with PSVR, unless they release a new 4K PSVR at or near launch, then it may not be.
24GB to 32GB of usable game memory at least, not including OS memory.
Focus will be 4k games with 4K VR, meaning space needed for very high res textures
PSVR will be a VR/AR Hyrbrid model, built in cameras, flip-able screen, possibly wireless. Could be two different headsets but Im betting one hybrid model.
They will focus on making it an option for non TV gaming, watching media, where they arent really pushing that right now. Room tracking and self tracking in headset They will focus heavily on AR even in TV games (playing a game on a TV while wearing the headset will have side views, animations, alerts, characters, etc). This is whats going to set the next gen apart. Games will now interact with you in your home environment.
AMD CPU/GPU/APU based on whatever AMD's latest or year before launch architecture is.
Will surpass current GPU's if released in 2020, will have a better beefed up CPU in the APU compared to now.
Much improved AR/VR controllers will be released, better cameras for not only tracking, but will have a Kinect like room scanner for AR, or small room devices you set.
Dualshock 5 - Not sure of what they will update for AR/VR, but will have more customization options this time, like an Xbox elite controller but maybe not as much. lights will be able to turn off if still used.
Completely backwards compatible with PS4
Backwards compatible with PSVR, unless they release a new 4K PSVR at or near launch, then it may not be.
24GB to 32GB of usable game memory at least, not including OS memory.
Focus will be 4k games with 4K VR, meaning space needed for very high res textures
PSVR will be a VR/AR Hyrbrid model, built in cameras, flip-able screen, possibly wireless. Could be two different headsets but Im betting one hybrid model.
They will focus on making it an option for non TV gaming, watching media, where they arent really pushing that right now. Room tracking and self tracking in headset They will focus heavily on AR even in TV games (playing a game on a TV while wearing the headset will have side views, animations, alerts, characters, etc). This is whats going to set the next gen apart. Games will now interact with you in your home environment.
AMD CPU/GPU/APU based on whatever AMD's latest or year before launch architecture is.
Will surpass current GPU's if released in 2020, will have a better beefed up CPU in the APU compared to now.
Much improved AR/VR controllers will be released, better cameras for not only tracking, but will have a Kinect like room scanner for AR, or small room devices you set.
Dualshock 5 - Not sure of what they will update for AR/VR, but will have more customization options this time, like an Xbox elite controller but maybe not as much. lights will be able to turn off if still used.
E-Cat
Member
No way are you getting a 20TF console in 2020. That would take a 5nm process.
David Ricardo
Member
Before Pro/Scorpio I was thinking 2018 or 2019. Now I think 2019/2020 depending on og console sales and new more powerful technology availability.
Dee Dah Dave
Member
They are tied to the release (and maturity) of 7nm tech, so probably the year after that arrives.
PS5 though I imagine needs to be at least double the TF performance of Scorpio which would make it 6X+ the OG PS4. That's pretty feable to me though and I think it's best to wait now until a console can get closer to 20TF. Next gen is going to be ~4K only and so lots of power is needed.
With the Pro - Scorpio staggered release I see Microsoft doing the same again. The decent hardware of the Scorpio will help give it an extra year of life and then MS can comfortably launch new hardware more powerful than the PS5 again.
2020/21 earliest.
PS5 though I imagine needs to be at least double the TF performance of Scorpio which would make it 6X+ the OG PS4. That's pretty feable to me though and I think it's best to wait now until a console can get closer to 20TF. Next gen is going to be ~4K only and so lots of power is needed.
With the Pro - Scorpio staggered release I see Microsoft doing the same again. The decent hardware of the Scorpio will help give it an extra year of life and then MS can comfortably launch new hardware more powerful than the PS5 again.
2020/21 earliest.
Hairsplash
Member
The next playstation console will be like their Flagship TV's, or High end TV's... which is to say that they are designed as a masterpiece, designed for the future but priced to make a good profit. (And thus the store can sell it a "discount")
Which means the PS5 will be sold like a (back-in-the-day) ES series CD player... makes money.
So i think it will have a ryzen 8/16 3g2 processor (which would be effectively twice as fast as the ps4pro processor (40+% IPC increase x 3.2G = approx "4.2 Ghz" which is 2x the Ps4pro 2.1Ghz speed)
16GB ram...
2 to 3 times the power of the RX480.
Which could make it 600 US. Remember the price does not matter because it is a flagship, and while it will run ps4(pro) games...
BUT, i think They could also the reduce the NEO chip (ps4pro) to TMSC's 7nm... and add three to the new console with a HBM2 buffer to " stitch " together the output of the three chips for 4k60 output. (1280 x 3 = 3840)
Or go Ryzen modified NEO chip (3g2), put two in and use then for a 4k PSVR headset (or a 2k x 2k circle of 3D)
(Or just allow being able to play a HD game in the headset... the psvr is not set up allow the full panel to be used as a gameing monitor... because of the optics for 3D.
I think the most plausible Console will be one that is designed to allow 2k x 2k VR (4k but the circle of VR effectively will be 2k squared)
The flagship console or profit making one, would allow it to have Super Specs and allow the ps4pro to co-exist. Or allow the Console to take two years to build a base without really harming the base ps4/ps4pro installed base.
BTW, IMO Microsoft really F''ked up be not having a 3.2Ghz processor in the XBOXONE. that speed would have compensated for its 12 Shader units instead of 18 in the PS4...
I hope the Scorpio has a 3.2 or 2.7 Ghz processor in it.
IN ANY CASE, i do not care about what is in the box ( yet it is very interesting, I like the technical details but, ) what is more important is 4k60 game play... supersampled to 1080p... or 1080p120 for VR.
Which means the PS5 will be sold like a (back-in-the-day) ES series CD player... makes money.
So i think it will have a ryzen 8/16 3g2 processor (which would be effectively twice as fast as the ps4pro processor (40+% IPC increase x 3.2G = approx "4.2 Ghz" which is 2x the Ps4pro 2.1Ghz speed)
16GB ram...
2 to 3 times the power of the RX480.
Which could make it 600 US. Remember the price does not matter because it is a flagship, and while it will run ps4(pro) games...
BUT, i think They could also the reduce the NEO chip (ps4pro) to TMSC's 7nm... and add three to the new console with a HBM2 buffer to " stitch " together the output of the three chips for 4k60 output. (1280 x 3 = 3840)
Or go Ryzen modified NEO chip (3g2), put two in and use then for a 4k PSVR headset (or a 2k x 2k circle of 3D)
(Or just allow being able to play a HD game in the headset... the psvr is not set up allow the full panel to be used as a gameing monitor... because of the optics for 3D.
I think the most plausible Console will be one that is designed to allow 2k x 2k VR (4k but the circle of VR effectively will be 2k squared)
The flagship console or profit making one, would allow it to have Super Specs and allow the ps4pro to co-exist. Or allow the Console to take two years to build a base without really harming the base ps4/ps4pro installed base.
BTW, IMO Microsoft really F''ked up be not having a 3.2Ghz processor in the XBOXONE. that speed would have compensated for its 12 Shader units instead of 18 in the PS4...
I hope the Scorpio has a 3.2 or 2.7 Ghz processor in it.
IN ANY CASE, i do not care about what is in the box ( yet it is very interesting, I like the technical details but, ) what is more important is 4k60 game play... supersampled to 1080p... or 1080p120 for VR.
shenmue mugen
Member
Whoa! 20-30 tflops GPUS in a console by 2020 seems impossible to me.
TSMC is surging forward with process nodes, and AMD has amended their agreement with Global Foundries so they can turn to any of the other chip foundries if needed.
http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1331489&page_number=4
7nm+ using EUV seems doable for console APU in 2020.
I think Sony should aim for no less than 18 TFlops - 10 times stronger than base PS4 and 3X stronger than Scorpio.
http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1331489&page_number=4
7nm+ using EUV seems doable for console APU in 2020.
I think Sony should aim for no less than 18 TFlops - 10 times stronger than base PS4 and 3X stronger than Scorpio.
BrownWalrus
Member
Honestly, going by their track record, I would be surprised if they hit 1TF by that time.
I very much agree.
Sorry for the DP.
http://gamingbolt.com/phil-spencer-...ady-planning-what-comes-after-project-scorpio
In 2020-2021, ZeNd me to High Bandwidth Memory Heaven.
http://gamingbolt.com/phil-spencer-...ady-planning-what-comes-after-project-scorpio
In 2020-2021, ZeNd me to High Bandwidth Memory Heaven.
Insane Metal
Member
Oh man. I know it's still early but I think Ryzen is a good (and realistic) candidate for nextgen consoles' CPUs. By then maybe we'll have 16C/32T at a reasonable price? Even if we get 8/16 it could be a good choice, much better than current gen's Jaguar.
fatherKratos
Neo Member
2020 would be my guess too. But, not too sure with these mid gen releases. If scorpio turned out to be a great success, will sony be forced to try to release it earlier? then if thats a success, will it be same for MS?.....and so on......
One Eyed Willy
Member
While you're at it, can you tell me winning lotto numbers from the future?
Shin
Banned
Zen will be in AMD's next APU, including semi-custom SoC's (as per their last conference call), it's all Zen till 2019 (Zen 3).
Speed > amount of cores, personally I'm hoping it's a 6/12 or 8/14 at 3.5Ghz minimum for the PS5.
Also TSMC is starting 7nm risk production next month, 7nm is due 2h 2018 from GloFo & TSMC.
The two foundries are on track, Sony/AMD used them for the PS4, unless they hit a big hurdle 7nm will be in mass production by 2019.
Insane Metal
Member
JareBear: Remastered
Banned
24 gigs of RAM or more
2 TB hybrid drive
FULL SATA-3 speeds
CPU on the level of a mid-range i7 AT THE MINIMUM
GPU at the level of a 1080 ti AT THE MINIMUM
2 TB hybrid drive
FULL SATA-3 speeds
CPU on the level of a mid-range i7 AT THE MINIMUM
GPU at the level of a 1080 ti AT THE MINIMUM
