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Sony in big trouble with PS Vita, Portable market in perm decline, rotting - Forbes

ZoddGutts

Member
Agreed. Thankfully, consumers are in agreement. Android and iPhone revenues are in a freefall as we speak:
ob41l.png

With Kindle Fire a 200 dollar tablet selling a shitload, won't be surprise if that IOS/Android percentage goes over 60% soon.
 
I think it's going to bomb by the time the first year hits. Most people that care about fancy tech have smart or "super" phones which are getting better and better every few months(VITA will be pretty weak in a year by comparison)and Sony's first party franchises aren't any where near as fun or popular as Nintendos.
 

GCX

Member
Billions of mobile phones are sold every year. Billions! I think this all but proves gaming handhelds have no reason to exist anymore.
Nokia sells 100 million phones every quarter and they are also doomed. Just think about how doomed Nintendo and Sony are in that light.
 

popeutlal

Member
Mario and Pokemon games on DS have made significantly more profit than the entire App Store combined. Mario Kart DS has sold roughly as many copies worldwide and the original X Box did. More recently, Super Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 have seen great levels of success... on 3DS.

If you fancy actually using facts and evidence rather than picking inaccurate figures out of the air, it would be appreciated.
Correct. You're talking about the current situation where 3DS and its big games are doing great in Japan - where phone gaming isn't as strong. I'm talking about the future handheld situation, where the beloved dedicated handhelds from Nintendo and Sony will slowly be replaced by tablets and phones.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Aren't Vita games priced, on average, fairly low? PSP games launched almost universally at 34.99 and 29.99...there are a host of games (desireable games) at 29.99 and below on Vita. Just because UC is 49 doesnt mean they all are.
 

Codeblue

Member
Agreed. Thankfully, consumers are in agreement. Android and iPhone revenues are in a freefall as we speak:
ob41l.png

A Note about Methodology
For this analysis, Flurry used a combination of publicly available data, released across several reports by the NPD group, along with its own data collected from mobile devices. Flurry Analytics tracks more than 20 billion use sessions per month across more than 125,000 applications on more than 330 million unique devices per month. Nearly 40% of all app use sessions occur in games. With its coverage across applications, Flurry can reliably estimate the revenue generated per ranked position in the iTunes App Store and Android Market. With this data, Flurry calculated year-over-year revenue generated by the smartphone gaming category, and combined this with available Nintendo DS and Sony PSP software sales.

So are they saying they're extrapolating revenue based on iTunes rankings or am I mistaken?
 

Tobor

Member
Putting the doom aside for a moment, does anyone here actually think the Vita will fly off the shelves at $250 in the West? I don't see it.
 
Lower the price of the goddamn memory cards.

this!

the PSPGO had a sizable flash memory (16GB if I am not mistaken)

the turn off on the Vita is the small flash memory on the unit forcing you buy expensive proprietary mem cards for people who want to live by Digital Distribution.. people who don't want to swap physical game carts/disks on a plane
 

diffusionx

Gold Member
Forbes man is more right than wrong (it pains me to say that). The "handheld game market", consisting of handheld systems dedicated to playing games, is nearing its end. That's not really a problem, as markets evolve over time and companies adjust. How are arcades doing nowadays, for example?

Gamers operate in this little bubble where, I mean, OBVIOUSLY smartphones and tablets are totally inadequate because buttons are better and handhelds will be fine for that reason, right? Well, it doesn't really work that way. The PS Vita is competing with the Kindle Fire, of course it is. Peoples' wallets and time for content "consumption" is not infinite.
 

Wazzim

Banned
amazing that we can go from, "wow 250$?!" to, "wow... 250$..." in the span of like 6 months. goes to show how fast smart phones are improving.

Sorry but nobody gives a fuck about smartphones when talking about the price, they're looking at the 3DS. Smarthphone gaming is a total and utter joke.
 
My cheap ass would love a $199 version for the US launch, but I don't see it happening. I don't think any console has ever been announced at one price point and dropped before it even launches in that region. Maybe shortly after however, I'm thinking I will hold off for a couple weeks/months just to get a feel to how the market is receiving it and make a decision based off of that.
 
The problem for Sony is that people will buy a phone then, they'll ask themselves if they really need to buy a portable gaming console. Who will answer yes when you already have an Iphone 4S or a Samsung Galaxy S2?

Even I, as a gamer and a geek, I gave up on buying a Vita. I'll buy an Iphone instead to replace my ageing cellphone. I'll play mobile games on the go (reading the Iphone/Ipad thread, some of them seem really great, even for gamers) and gamer's games at home on my PS3. Heck, I'll even be able to play Ruin or Dragon's Crown on my PS3 so why should I care? Being a mini PS3 is really what kills the appeal to me. Vita looks like a very well crafted piece of hardware but... I really don't see the appeal. Vita needs unique software, this console needs reasons to be bought and software is the key, Uncharted is a beginning but it's not enough.
 

Barrett2

Member
The pricing seems delusional in light of the Japanese response to the PS Vita.
Mobile app sales more than doubled during the Christmas of 2011 – solid triple digit volume growth. In the meanwhile, even in the Japanese heartland of video games, video game software unit sales are set to decline by double digits in 2011.

0117_kn7c.gif
 
It will fare better in the west since the lineup so far it's more suited to this audience. When COD Portable and other games like Madden are released it will see a jump in sales and will be fine.

lol, nobody plays those games on handhelds.


wait, ohhhhhhhhh... this is a joke post... right? RIGHT??
 

diffusionx

Gold Member
Now, the AppStore, whole of it, including every single app game or not, revenue till some months ago was 4 billion. During a span of 3 years. That is, it is the whole pie is still less than half of that of DS.

But then again, that market was $0 not too long ago. It's not really about absolute numbers today - it is about trends. I think it'd be tough to find anybody who thinks the App Store will continue to grow.

I think Nintendo is sort of safe because they have a kid market to sell to, but Sony is generally selling to the same crowd that is buying tablets and smartphones. They've always targetted that older market.
 

GCX

Member
Forbes man is more right than wrong (it pains me to say that). The "handheld game market", consisting of handheld systems exclusively dedicated to playing games, is nearing its end. That's not really a problem, as markets evolve over time and companies adjust. How are arcades doing nowadays, for example?

Gamers operate in this little bubble where, I mean, OBVIOUSLY smartphones and tablets are totally inadequate because buttons are better and handhelds will be fine for that reason, right? Well, it doesn't really work that way. The PS Vita is competing with the Kindle Fire, of course it is. Peoples' wallets and time for content "consumption" is not infinite.
The portable market is evolving but it doesn't happen overnight.

Even though the time of dedicated handhelds will probably be over sooner or later, at the moment the market still exists and it doesn't make sense for Nintendo for instance to abandon it. There is still a lot of money to be made before making the jump to a new type of market.
 
Lower the price of the goddamn memory cards.

And the games.

Until a purchase works on both ps3 and a handheld they are not worth 40 euros.

PSP game pricing was at a sweet spot, not quite as expensive as pc games, but not far off, expensive enough to allow big budgets.

I want a vita, I'll gladly pay the price for the hardware (because it seems like really good value), I'll even put up with the premium for the memory card, but with such expensive games I'll be waiting for platinum releases for most of them.

(please don't misinterpret this as me being one of those iphone snobs who think 99c games are somehow a good idea, I'm talking 20-30 euros for a game)
 

amdnv

Member
The reactions in this thread are so cute.
As someone who really doesn't care at all about handheld, smartphone or any other type of tiny-screen-gaming, from a sales and business perspective I can only say that the denial is strong in here. Very strong.
 

Wazzim

Banned
And the games.

Until a purchase works on both ps3 and a handheld they are not worth 40 euros.

PSP game pricing was at a sweet spot, not quite as expensive as pc games, but not far off, expensive enough to allow big budgets.

I want a vita, I'll gladly pay the price for the hardware (because it seems like really good value), I'll even put up with the premium for the memory card, but with such expensive games I'll be waiting for platinum releases for most of them.

(please don't misinterpret this as me being one of those iphone snobs who think 99c games are somehow a good idea, I'm talking 20-30 euros for a game)

PSP games were €40 too man.
 
Billions of mobile phones are sold every year. Billions! I think this all but proves gaming handhelds have no reason to exist anymore.

There are only 2 companies in the dedicated handheld space and a few thousand in the mobile phone/tablet scene, if anything the PSV and 3DS are beasts if they manage 200 million combined.
 
The reactions in this thread are so cute.
As someone who really doesn't care at all about handheld, smartphone or any other type of tiny-screen-gaming, from a sales and business perspective I can only say that the denial is strong in here. Very strong.
I always appreciate a good condescending post.
 
Correct. You're talking about the current situation where 3DS and its big games are doing great in Japan - where phone gaming isn't as strong. I'm talking about the future handheld situation, where the beloved dedicated handhelds from Nintendo and Sony will slowly be replaced by tablets and phones.

Mobile gaming is a factor in Japan, arguably longer than it has been in the West. Didn't stop 3DS from achieving the single best month for a console ever in Japan this December.

Even so, Super Mario 3D Land sold in excess of half a million in the USA in November. Pokemon is selling in the multi-millions despite having launched 9 months ago; selling more, in fact, than the titles sold in the heyday of the DS in 2006. We don't know how Mario Kart 7 and Super Mario 3D Land did in December, but Nintendo is traditionally very strong in the run up to Christmas.

In terms of pure profit, when single sets of games are outstripping the profit margins of the entire App Store service, it doesn't particularly point to your imminent glorious smartphone future.
 

ShdwDrake

Banned
amazing that we can go from, "wow 250$?!" to, "wow... 250$..." in the span of like 6 months. goes to show how fast smart phones are improving.

Well, I was under the impression that games would all ave to their cartridges. Now that I have to buy a card and the game that sold me on it at the time is so expensive I'd rather wait.
 

Barrett2

Member
It will fare better in the west since the lineup so far it's more suited to this audience. When COD Portable and other games like Madden are released it will see a jump in sales and will be fine.

Yes, we all know about the multi-million selling Madden and shooters on the PSP.
KuGsj.gif
 

diffusionx

Gold Member
The portable marketing is evolving but it doesn't happen overnight.

Even though the time of dedicated handhelds will probably be over sooner or later, at the moment the market still exists and it doesn't make sense for Nintendo for instance to abandon it. There is still a lot of money to be made before making the jump to a new type of market.

I think Nintendo will be fine for a while. In fact I think they can keep releasing handhelds and sell Mario and Pokemon to kids for a long long time. That's a different market from Sony entirely.

A lot of people questioned the wisdom of Sony releasing the Vita when it was first announced, unveiled, priced, etc. People should not be surprised that these questions are being asked again as it underwhelms in Japan.
 
PSP games were €40 too man.
Not where I live (and we pay 21 percent vat like tax too!)
They were always 29.99 for as long as I can remember. (I only own like 10 games but I've had my psp since eu release)

edit: lol@ 2001 forbes article... 'analysts'.


Seriously though, please don't try to sell handheld games at pc game prices sony, do not want.
 
Protip Sony: Stuff like this isn't worth $40 in the slightest, in fact, you'd be pushing it at 99c on the appstore.

realityfighters.jpg

reality-fighters-vita.jpg


Even non iOS quality shovelware games like UC are pushing it at $40, $30 would be a much better pricepoint for those kinds of titles.
 
Smarthphone gaming is a total and utter joke.
This is kind of what I'm talking about. I really don't have a dog in this fight. I just like to play games when I have the (increasingly decreasing) time, and as such don't have any vested interest in seeing the Vita or 3DS fail. There's games for the dedicated machines that don't really have much competition from the convergence devices.

But that aside, I don't understand the vitriol by some to completely undermine the expansion of the markets. As we approach 2012, I just can't fathom -- at least from the business side -- how anyone can look at market trends and think cell phone gaming is some dying fad, and that the traditional handhelds have nothing to worry about going forward.

I personally just don't see it. And there's some discrediting in the form of pointing out that the heavy hitters still make money. That just seems shortsighted. I feel like I should go over to the OT and respond to that thread where Ebert lays out the problems with theaters nowadays. "Is that old man crazy? What the fuck is he talking about. Mission Impossible and Sherlock Holmes are doing great. Theaters are doing fine!"
 

Wazzim

Banned
Not where I live (and we pay 21 percent vat like tax too!)
They were always 29.99 for as long as I can remember. (I only own like 10 games but I've had my psp since eu release)

edit: lol@ 2001 forbes article... 'analysts'.


Seriously though, please don't try to sell handheld games at pc game prices sony, do not want.

We have 19% VAT and they sold us the games (high profile titles) for €40. D:
They're now sold for €29.99 at release though.

This is kind of what I'm talking about. I really don't have a dog in this fight. I just like to play games when I have the (increasingly decreasing) time, and as such don't have any vested interest in seeing the Vita or 3DS fail. There's games for the dedicated machines that don't really have much competition from the convergence devices.

But that aside, I don't understand the vitriol by some to completely undermine the expansion of the markets. As we approach 2012, I just can't fathom -- at least from the business side -- how anyone can look at market trends and think cell phone gaming is some dying fad, and that the traditional handhelds have nothing to worry about going forward.

I personally just don't it. And there's some discrediting in the form of pointing out that the heavy hitters still make money. That just seems shortsighted. I feel like I should go over to the OT and respond to that thread where Ebert lays out the problems with theaters nowadays. "Is that old man crazy? What the fuck is he talking about. Mission Impossible and Sherlock Holmes are doing great. Theaters are doing fine!"
The smartphone market of today was a big hole in which the phone companies jumped in, people used to play snake on their old Nokia phones too but never was it so easy to pay and download games as it is now.
The majority of the people playing smartphone games didn't have interest in handheld devices anyway, they just like the new way of playing 'snake'. I understand that there will be some people who will jump from handheld to smartphone but that isn't because they like gaming on their phone so much better, they are just getting older and have less time to spent.
So I do not think the smartphone market is a fad but they will never be able to do gaming as good as the dedicated devices (talking in terms of software and hardware). At least in the foreseeable future.
 

kitch9

Banned
Am I the only one who'd rather stick needles in my balls than depend on my phone for gaming on the go? Seriously onscreen controls can fuck right off.
 

BurntPork

Banned
Any evidence of it hitting 10 million? If it has crossed the 10 million barrier, it isn't outrageous to have it get somewhat close to the 16 mil by March.

No evidence, but based on how it's been selling that's a very safe guess.

However, that 16 million target was for just this fiscal year, which started on April 1st. Without counting those launch units, Nintendo will miss the target. 16 million LTD by March isn't out of the question, though.
 

Raine

Member
Protip Sony: Stuff like this isn't worth $40 in the slightest, in fact, you'd be pushing it at 99c on the appstore.

realityfighters.jpg

reality-fighters-vita.jpg


Even non iOS quality shovelware games like UC are pushing it at $40, $30 would be a much better pricepoint for those kinds of titles.

...You do realize not all games will be $40?
 

GCX

Member
I think Nintendo will be fine for a while. In fact I think they can keep releasing handhelds and sell Mario and Pokemon to kids for a long long time. That's a different market from Sony entirely.

A lot of people questioned the wisdom of Sony releasing the Vita when it was first announced, unveiled, priced, etc. People should not be surprised that these questions are being asked again as it underwhelms in Japan.
The market that Sony aims to reach with Vita definitely exists.

The problem is though that Nintendo has stepped into that same market and has secured games like Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Kingdom Hearts, Resident Evil, etc. for 3DS. That's a very different situation compared to last gen when 3rd parties generally avoided DS for the first few years.
 
because all of the other details weren't known then...

What details? is it the Memory cards? $250 for such a beastly machine is amazingly low. People were rejoicing when Sony announced the price but after Nintendo dropped the 3DS's price people started overlooking the technology that is packed for such a low price. Now you hear stupid shit like "Sony being arrogant for pricing the Vita at $250" according to Forbes.
 
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