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[Tom_Cody]

Trumps lead has been declining this week. Averaging out all the polls shows this trend:

Tuesday: Trump +17
Wednesday: Trump +16
Thursday: Trump +13.25
Friday: Trump +9.8

Based on this, and the fact that his decline is accelerating, i put this race very close. I'm giving it to Trump by +2, but i think there's a chance it could go either way as those last minute holdouts make up their minds

Hope Trump can pull it out by at least 8. Otherwise the media will have a field day.

#prayfortrump

I think the more dramatic indicator will be his overall percentage. He got 35% in NH. Obviously the dynamics of the two states are different, but I think anything less than that will really drive the narrative that most of the party won't accept him. Especially if Rubio and/or Cruz make strong relative showings.

Further, given the extremes Trump reached this week (called the Pope "disgraceful", "Bush lied, People died", etc), it will set the narrative that there is an actual limit to what Trump can get away with. Similar to the move of skipping the Iowa debate, it will be clear that his antics have damaged him in the eyes of the party as whole.

 

[Makai]

Trumps lead has been declining this week. Averaging out all the polls shows this trend:

Tuesday: Trump +17
Wednesday: Trump +16
Thursday: Trump +13.25
Friday: Trump +9.8

Based on this, and the fact that his decline is accelerating, i put this race very close. I'm giving it to Trump by +2, but i think there's a chance it could go either way as those last minute holdouts make up their minds

Recent poll with 3,500 respondents give trump +15

 

[metalslimer]

Hilary and Trump will pull off close ones

 

[vicissitudes]

I think the more dramatic indicator will be his overall percentage. He got 35% in NH. Obviously the dynamics of the two states are different, but I think anything less than that will really drive the narrative that most of the party won't accept him. Especially if Rubio and/or Cruz make strong relative showings.

Further, given the extremes Trump reached this week (called the Pope "disgraceful", "Bush lied, People died", etc), it will set the narrative that there is an actual limit to what Trump can get away with. Similar to the move of skipping the Iowa debate, it will be clear that his antics have damaged him in the eyes of the party as whole.

Something like 30-19-17 would still be a great result. SC doesn't actually have the best demographics for Trump.

All the Fox News shows were defending Trump against the Pope. So did Bush and Rubio iirc. Not sure that will hurt him too much. But I get what you're saying.

 

[ShadowKingpin]

What time do the polls open?

 

[Sub_Level]

You can tell that someone isn't experienced at games when they say Seymour, any form, actually gave them trouble. You can literally just build up your aeon overdrives and release them one after another.

Sorry for tangentially related comment >_>

 

[Rafa=FedKilla]

Recent poll with 3,500 respondents give trump +15

Yep. I have Trump at 33, Cruz at 20, Bubble Boy at 19.

Dens in Nevada
Hillary
Bernie Who the fuck cares for both.

 

[CDX]

So Caesars Palace for Hillary I guess.

 

[ivysaur12]

What time do the polls open?

Door close in 5 minutes, we should get entrance polls then.

 

[Black Republican]

If Rubio comes 2nd , thank the Haley/Scott/Rubio clique!

*cue the NWO Wolfpac music

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

What time do the polls open?

Caucus doors are shutting in 5 minutes, polls in SC are open already and will probably close around 7-8pm eastern id guess.

 

[dmr87]

Live coverage if you want something to watch, http://www.cbsnews.com/live/?ftag=CNMdaef904

 

[HylianTom]

So Caesars Palace for Hillary I guess.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Legit choked on my drink thanks

 

[vicissitudes]

So Caesars Palace for Hillary I guess.

That's where she's getting the coronation.

 

[CCS]

That's where she's getting the coronation.

Okay, I laughed

 

[rjinaz]

First polling.

Too early to call.

Well good for Bernie at least.

 

[Veritigo_X]

daveweigel @daveweigel
I’m at the Wynn precinct, where in 2008 there were 227 voters, breaking heavily for Hillary. With a push there may be 60 this time.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/701133800911147008

 

[Tubie]

CNN is the worst lol.

 

[Bronx-Man]

If Rubio comes 2nd , thank the Haley/Scott/Rubio clique!

*cue the NWO Wolfpac music

Rubio Club f-f-for liiiiiiiife

 

[BoboBrazil]

Rubio and Nikki Haley are a scary combo in the general.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

Rubio Club f-f-for liiiiiiiife

I like how i refreshed the page and you added in more "i's to liiiiife.


Anyway, so hard to make of what some of this on ground stuff is saying.

 

[Chariot]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/701133800911147008

I don't understand this tweet.

edit: wait, it's not necessarily breaking now, it broke 2008, right, and now are a lot less people there today than 2008...?

 

[Veritigo_X]

I don't understand this tweet.

He's reporting from a precinct that heavily favored Hillary in 2008 but no longer does.

 

[rjinaz]

I don't understand this tweet.

Could mean two things, it's not clear.

Very low turnout or

Low Hillary support.

 

[kirblar]

I don't understand this tweet.

The explanation's in the replies- management isn't giving them free time to caucus.

He's reporting from a precinct that heavily favored Hillary in 2008 but no longer does.

There's a better explanation in the replies.

 

[Tom_Cody]

Something like 30-19-17 would still be a great result. SC doesn't actually have the best demographics for Trump.

All the Fox News shows were defending Trump against the Pope. So did Bush and Rubio iirc. Not sure that will hurt him too much. But I get what you're saying.

You're probably right, but I'm just anticipating how the press will react.

Trump's poll avegrage went from +20 to +13 in the week since the debate. It is my guess that even if he wins by his recent polling margin of +13, the press will paint it as a loss. I mean, the biggest news story coming out of Iowa was Rubio's 3rd place finishing. The press doesn't always make sense.

 

[mcfrank]

CNN is reporting really big turn out.

 

[Veritigo_X]

The explanation's in the replies- management isn't giving them free time to caucus.

There's a better explanation in the replies.

Ah, that would make sense. God, caucuses are dumb.

 

[Chariot]

He's reporting from a precinct that heavily favored Hillary in 2008 but no longer does.

The explanation's in the replies- management isn't giving them free time to caucus.

There's a better explanation in the replies.

Oh, thank you.

 

[CraigerGamer]

Crazy turout here in NV. Well above expected. Lines out the door. Folks almost done registering and getting in the rooms.

NV Dem party HQ is an fn madhouse.

 

[Brinbe]

Clusterfuck in NV
This is gonna be a mess.
A big fat mess.

 

[Black Republican]

yall on chat, crazy lol

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

jon ralston was just on MSNBC. Basically saying too close and the turn out is big. Interesting that the demographics are basically the same from 2008.

Also, we need to have a law that for voting you get a certain amount of time to go participate, and in caucus states, you need 3 hours or so I would say, because of line and the longer process.

 

[royalan]

Yeah, it's a damn shame that a significant number of people might not be able to participate in the process of electing our government officials because they have to work. Something really needs to be done about that.

 

[mcfrank]

At least it is on a weekend. That is better than usual in the USA.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

At least it is on a weekend. That is better than usual in the USA.

Normally I'd agree. But NV is heavy service industry. Saturday would probably be a worst day to have an election.

People want drinks and gambling and shows damnit!

 

[mcfrank]

Normally I'd agree. But NV is heavy service industry. Saturday would probably be a worst day to have an election.

People want drinks and gambling and shows damnit!

Good point

 

[TumblingHippo]

Voting should be a week-long process when it comes to the general election, give everyone an ample time to vote, and keep the results secret until the cut off time. (preventing exit-polling from leaking out would be important too)

 

[Matt_]

CBSN just said the final batch of hilary emails will be released the day before super tuesday
shady state department

 

[GoldenEye 007]

Voting should be a week-long process when it comes to the general election, give everyone an ample time to vote, and keep the results secret until the cut off time. (preventing exit-polling from leaking out would be important too)

I'll be taking advantage of this during early voting in TX. I'll be out of town on the actual day of election.

 

[ShadowKingpin]

What good websites are there for the caucus results?

 

[CraigerGamer]

Normally I'd agree. But NV is heavy service industry. Saturday would probably be a worst day to have an election.

People want drinks and gambling and shows damnit!

Many caucus sites were at casinos locations. Folks still in line at Caesars were just told to stay there and they can be late for their shift. "This is important."

 

[GoldenEye 007]

Many caucus sites were at casinos locations. Folks still in line at Caesars were just told to stay there and they can be late for their shift. "This is important."

That's good at least.

 

[sdornan]

Wow, CNN's entrance polls show Bernie ahead at 49% vs 47%. Was not expecting that.

 

[Tubie]

CNN Entrance Poll:

Bernie 49
Hillary 47
Undecided 3

 

[ChoklitReign]

I don't know how much faith to put into CNN's entrance polls but they say over 60% of caucusgoers are over 45. If that holds Hillary could win NV by double digits.

 

[Manmademan]

I don't know how much faith to put into CNN's entrance polls but they say over 60% of caucusgoers are over 45. If that holds Hillary could win NV by double digits.

I don't find that likely...but if it happens Bernie's campaign is finished.

 

[Ashodin]

GO BERNIE

 

[Kyosaiga]

I don't find that likely...but if it happens Bernie's campaign is finished.

And this is BEFORE his thrashing in SC.

He's going to be in for a rude awakening on March 1.