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[chadskin]

Donald Trump has opened a double-digit lead over his next-closest Republican rival, less than three weeks before the first votes of the 2016 presidential race are cast, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

A third of Republican primary voters in the nationwide survey said they favored Mr. Trump to be the GOP nominee, followed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 20% support, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 13% and retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 12%.

In December, Mr. Trump had led the No. 2 candidate, Mr. Cruz, by 5 percentage points. In the new poll, his lead widened to 13 points.

The survey casts doubt on the prospect that so-called establishment voters will rally behind an alternative to Messrs. Cruz and Trump, as far more GOP primary voters favor the two outsiders over candidates with more conventional messages and resumés.

As evidence, Mr. Trump preserves his lead when the field is reduced to five candidates in a hypothetical ballot, and again when it is culled to just three.

In a three-way match-up with Messrs. Cruz and Rubio, 40% favor Mr. Trump, while 31% support Mr. Cruz, who has drawn support heavily from social conservatives. Mr. Rubio, a favorite of many centrist, business-friendly Republicans, garners just 26%.

“Trump shows remarkable resiliency with the GOP primary electorate and has even increased his support since December, while Cruz has leveled off,” said Fred Yang, a Democratic pollster at Hart Research who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with Republican Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.

The survey included 400 Republican primary voters and was conducted Jan. 9-13. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/poll-do...ad-in-republican-presidential-race-1452808842

Full poll results via: https://twitter.com/wsjpolitics/status/687758379549388800
Trump 33%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 13%
Carson 12%
Christie 5%
Bush 5%
Fiorina 3%
Kasich 3%
Paul 3%

Can't stump the Trump.

 

[Escape Goat]

The lead is yuuuuuge.

 

[demon]

He's terrific.

 

[rjinaz]

I think most of us have accepted the inevitable for a while now.

 

[metalslimer]

I mean it's either him or Cruz. No doubts about it now.

 

[hipbabboom]

He's terrific.

Its pretty fantastic isn't it

 

[statham]

must be his new theme song.

 

[El Topo]

I mean it's either him or Cruz.

Scylla or Charybdis.

 

[B-Dubs]

That's such a luxurious lead!

 

[maquiladora]

I'm going to build a beautiful lead, and Mexico is gonna pay for it.

 

[Rebel Leader]

THE GAP WIDENS

 

[HylianTom]

Too late.

 

[Sagroth]

The poll was conducted between Jan 9-13, right? I know the campaign finance loan thing for Cruz dropped into the news cycle on the 13th, but when did the birth/eligibility thing hit?

I'm trying to get a sense if the recent negative news is what is causing this drop vs Trump(and it doesn't look like it, as the timing is too soon), or if that was just the trend anyways and tonight's debate(which will likely have Cruz under fire) might widen the gap even further.

I mean, I loathe Trump, but I hate Cruz even more.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

If he doesn't win Iowa and/or New Hampshire, I think the national polls could change overnight, a good chunk of people will shift over to the winner.

 

[ivysaur12]

I mean it's either him or Cruz. No doubts about it now.

Yuuup

If he doesn't win Iowa and/or New Hampshire, I think the national polls could change overnight, a good chunk of people will shift over to the winner.

He's absolutely going to win New Hampshire at this point.

 

[Mr. Pointy]

And Nate Silver's like LALALALALICAN'THEARYOULALALALALALALA

 

[teruterubozu]

But what about Nate Silver?

edit: beaten

 

[Hydrus]

Can someone for the love of God, tell me what people see in Cruz? I can understand why Trump is popular, but Cruz? Guy looks like a creepy scumbag.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Yuuup



He's absolutely going to win New Hampshire at this point.

Yeah, I haven't seen much on NH polling, kind of ignorant there. But all I've heard recently is Cruz has a lead in Iowa.

 

[Dennis]

It is going to happen. Get in the bunker.

 

[SimleuqiR]

Too late.

I want to live in that future.

 

[chadskin]

Added the full poll results to the OP:

Trump 33%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 13%
Carson 12%
Christie 5%
Bush 5%
Fiorina 3%
Kasich 3%
Paul 3%
via: https://twitter.com/wsjpolitics/status/687758379549388800

Poor Bush, same % as Christie.

 

[teruterubozu]

Can someone for the love of God, tell me what people see in Cruz? I can understand why Trump is popular, but Cruz? Guy looks like a creepy scumbag.

That's why I think he may be falling. People are beginning to realize his creepiness now that he's in the spotlight.

 

[B-Dubs]

Yeah, I haven't seen much on NH polling, kind of ignorant there. But all I've heard recently is Cruz has a lead in Iowa.

Trump closed that gap last week according to polling and may even be ahead.

 

[deadlast]

Can someone for the love of God, tell me what people see in Cruz? I can understand why Trump is popular, but Cruz? Guy looks like a creepy scumbag.

Same thing people saw in senator palpatine. The force is real.

 

[Averon]

Too late.

You're telling me the establishment guys STILL see Trump as a flash-in-the-pan candidate? That he will inevitably burn out? At this juncture?

I know these people live in their own little bubble, but the time for writing off Trump passed months ago.

 

[smurfx]

cruz is currently going through front runner spotlight and some are not liking what they are seeing. same thing happened to carson and unfortunately for cruz it's happening around the first primary.

 

[Into]

Cant wait for the predictable cycle of Trump saying something today, people proclaiming him "done and done!" and then in a week gap widens even more.

 

[ivysaur12]

Yeah, I haven't seen much on NH polling, kind of ignorant there. But all I've heard recently is Cruz has a lead in Iowa.

He's in an incredibly domineering position in New Hampshire and is neck-and-neck with Cruz in Iowa. Cruz won't win New Hampshire, so Trump will cruise through New Hampshire and then take on Cruz in South Carolina with the wind in his sails.

 

[rjinaz]

Added the full poll results to the OP:

Trump 33%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 13%
Carson 12%
Christie 5%
Bush 5%
Fiorina 3%
Kasich 3%
Paul 3%
via: https://twitter.com/wsjpolitics/status/687758379549388800

Poor Bush, same % as Christie.

Christie as about as much likability as a wet fart. That really says a lot about what people are thinking about Jeb!

 

[HUELEN10]

Come on Carson, you still have time to turn it around...

 

[Downhome]

But what about Nate Silver?

edit: beaten

 

[SlimySnake]

I would like to see some state by state polls.The general election polls had Romney leading Obama in 2012. But we all know the states pick their guys and I just dont think big states like NY, Texas and California republicans are going to vote for trump.

Regardless, if Trump wins we can pretty much guarantee a landslide Democratic victory in the congress, right?

 

[Suikoguy]

I would like to see some state by state polls.The general election polls had Romney leading Obama in 2012. But we all know the states pick their guys and I just dont think NY and California republicans are going to vote for trump.

Regardless, if Trump wins we can pretty much guarantee a landslide Democratic victory in the congress, right?

No, but it greatly increases the chances, if either Trump or Cruz is the nominee.

 

[teruterubozu]

cruz is currently going through front runner spotlight and some are not liking what they are seeing. same thing happened to carson and unfortunately for cruz it's happening around the first primary.

Yup, most candidates wither before the spotlight, but Trump keeps growing like a hideous plant.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Hopefully Bernie vs Trump becomes a reality, would love to see that

Just the juxtaposition between two people who literally disagree on basically everything would be entertainment in itself

 

[Sojgat]

Can someone for the love of God, tell me what people see in Cruz? I can understand why Trump is popular, but Cruz? Guy looks like a creepy scumbag.

He reminds me of another senator. I think his name was Sheev something...

 

[gutter_trash]

Good! Good!

 

[maxcriden]

Hopefully Bernie vs Trump becomes a reality, would love to see that

The chances of Sanders getting the nom are extraordinarily low. He'd have to been competitive in a lot of primary states he has a minimal chance in.

 

[FlyinJ]

Can someone for the love of God, tell me what people see in Cruz? I can understand why Trump is popular, but Cruz? Guy looks like a creepy scumbag.

The great thing about creepy scumbags is they have zero empathy. They'll fuck over poor people, deregulate the oil industry, take birth control away from women and tell them to get back in the kitchen... and toot off a few racial dog whistles to really get the juices flowing.

The GOP loves creepy scumbags.

 

[Suikoguy]

Yup, most candidates wither before the spotlight, but Trump keeps growing like a hideous plant.

Plant you say?

 

[Maengun1]

I've given up on the "Republicans will finally settle on a sane, somewhat more moderate candidate" phase and fully entered the "DEAR GOD, ANYONE BUT TED CRUZ" phase, so whatever.

 

[rjinaz]

I think a Trump/Sanders debate would be the most entertaining but Clinton will be a lot for Trump to handle so it there is the potential there for some great entertainment.

 

[djplaeskool]

Plant you say?

 

[Suikoguy]

Oh, my twitters pointed out this tidbit:

% of GOP voters who can see themselves supporting Trump

March 2015: 23%
January 2016: 65%

The GOP is so fucked.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

He's in an incredibly domineering position in New Hampshire and is neck-and-neck with Cruz in Iowa. Cruz won't win New Hampshire, so Trump will cruise through New Hampshire and then take on Cruz in South Carolina with the wind in his sails.

It's odd to be relieved at this, but there's just a snake-like quality to Cruz that I fear far more than Trump's horrible rhetoric.

 

[TheOMan]

Cruz is only going to drop more I think - which is a great thing. Meanwhile Emperor Trump continues to steamroll.

 

[Sagroth]

Can someone for the love of God, tell me what people see in Cruz? I can understand why Trump is popular, but Cruz? Guy looks like a creepy scumbag.

Cruz is primarily courting the same voters who in the last couple election cycles went for Mike "incestuous pedophile apologist" Huckabee and Rick "my last name is now the worst thing ever" Santorum.

I'd say it has less to do with any positive qualities of Cruz, and more with the negative qualities of a specific primary voter demographic.

 

[injurai]

Why are the GOP not pressuring some of the really poor polling candidates to drop out?

 

[kirblar]

HEAD-TO-HEAD
Cruz beats Trump 51-43%
Trump beats Rubio 52-45%
THREE-WAY
Trump 40%, Cruz 31%, Rubio 26%'

Rubio seems boned right now.