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Trump will win the election and is more popular than Obama in 2008- AI system finds

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bud23

Member
Created in 2004, this AI system correctly predicted the last three U.S. presidential elections, and correctly predicted the results of the Democrat and Republican Primaries.......

TREMENDOUS

It takes in 20 million data points from public platforms including Google, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in the U.S. and then analyzes the information to create predictions.

The AI system was created in 2004, so it has been getting smarter all the time. It had already correctly predicted the results of the Democrat and Republican Primaries.

Data such as engagement with tweets or Facebook Live videos have been taken into account. The result is that Trump has overtaken the engagement numbers of Barack Obama's peak in 2008 – the year he came into power – by 25 percent.

Rai said that his AI system shows that candidate in each election who had leading engagement data ended up winning the elections.

"If Trump loses, it will defy the data trend for the first time in the last 12 years since Internet engagement began in full earnest," Rai wrote in a report sent to CNBC.

Currently most national polls put Clinton and the Democrats ahead by a strong margin. Rai said his data shows that Clinton should not get complacent.

But the entrepreneur admitted that there were limitations to the data in that sentiment around social media posts is difficult for the system to analyze. Just because somebody engages with a Trump tweet, it doesn't mean that they support him. Also there are currently more people on social media than there were in the three previous presidential elections.

"If you look at the primaries, in the primaries, there were immense amount of negative conversations that happen with regards to Trump. However, when these conversations started picking up pace, in the final days, it meant a huge game opening for Trump and he won the Primaries with a good margin," Rai told CNBC in a phone interview.

Using social media to predict outcomes of elections has become increasingly popular because of the amount of data available publically. In September, Nick Beauchamp, an assistant professor of political science at Northeastern University, published a paper about his experiment applying AI to more than 100 million tweets in the 2012 election. He found that this closely mirrored the results seen in state-level polling.

"These results provide not just a tool for generating surveylike data, but also a method for investigating how what people say and think reflects, and perhaps even affects, their vote intentions," Beauchamp said.

Rai said that his system would be improved by more granular data. He said that If Google was to give him access to the unique internet addresses assigned to each digital device, then he could collect data on exactly what people were thinking. For example, Rai said if someone was searching for a YouTube video on how to vote, then looked for a video on how to vote for Trump, this could give the AI a good idea of the voter's intention. He added that there would be no privacy concerns as these internet addresses would be anonymized.

"Granularity of data will determine progressively lesser bias despite the weightage of negative or positive conversations," Rai wrote in his report, explaining how to improve the system.

MogIA is based on Mogli, the child from Rudyard Kipling's novel "Jungle Book". Rai said this is because his AI model learns from the environment.

"While most algorithms suffer from programmers/developer's biases, MoglA aims at learning from her environment, developing her own rules at the policy layer and develop expert systems without discarding any data," Rai said.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/dona...pular-than-obama-in-2008-ai-system-finds.html
 
ron-swanson-computer-throw-out-parks-and-rec.gif
 

Pickman

Member
That's because it's datamining conversations online. Trump supporters are whipping themselves into a frenzy, but the real numbers don't lie. Trump is at least 6 points behind Hilldawg.
 
Data such as engagement with tweets or Facebook Live videos have been taken into account. The result is that Trump has overtaken the engagement numbers of Barack Obama's peak in 2008 – the year he came into power – by 25 percent.

Rai said that his AI system shows that candidate in each election who had leading engagement data ended up winning the elections.

That's why this is bogus. Most of all that is fake bullshit by bots. Nothing to see here.
 
It takes in 20 million data points from public platforms including Google, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in the U.S. and then analyzes the information to create predictions.

Wow, just the treasure trove of polling data if I've ever seen it.
 

Aurongel

Member
I don't even think he has a ceiling that high, Obama was a particularly well liked candidate among Democrats for the time. Personal feelings aside, he's been responsible for fracturing his party lines further down the ticket so I'd have no idea how he could even be capable of reaching the highs of Obama.
 
. Just because somebody engages with a Trump tweet, it doesn't mean that they support him. Also there are currently more people on social media than there were in the three previous presidential elections.
So, this is nothing.
 

datruth29

Member
That's why this is bogus. Most of all that is fake bullshit. Nothing to see here.

Not only that, but in terms of the internet landscape and prevalence of social media outlets, 2008 is nothing compared to now. I mean, we're talking about 8 years ago. iPhone 3G and the App Store we're JUST coming out!
 

Pagusas

Elden Member
As if 2016 wasnt already bad enough, if that happens I think it will insure it as the worst year of all time.
 

kmfdmpig

Member
That's impressive AI. It's getting into the Halloween spirit and trying to give everyone a scare. Unlike stories of ghosts or vampires, however, this one is a bit too far fetched to believe.
 
I wish it were true but these stories about AI or specific scientists and professors that have "predicted the last 5 elections correctly!!!!!!11" have little merit simply b/c it's so easy to predict a few elections in a row.

Let's talk about this one in the OP... Anyone could see Barack Obama was gonna win the last 2 elections so all the "AI" had to do was correctly pick Dubya getting reelected and BAM you got a story about "Wow he correctly predicted the last 3 elections!"

Go back one more...Dubya's first term...maybe the only one that's been hard to predict since before Bill Clinton was president, so really just the one that was hard out of like the last 6 elections.

Cliff notes: these stories are clickbait dumpster trash
 

Ron Mexico

Member
I'm all for advancements in technology and all and I think they're on to a good idea in its development.

That being said, on what planet does 12 years (and from the sounds of it, only looking at the national elections-- so 3 cycles) make for enough of a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions?
 

The Mule

Member
Also there are currently more people on social media than there were in the three previous presidential elections.
uhhh... why don't you scale for that then? That's a pretty obvious thing to do.

I don't trust this guy's results.
 
AI can't understand sarcasm, and disregards the fact that the terms idiot/racist/misogynist and "I can't believe this shit" also appear in the posts/tweets.
 

_Ryo_

Member
Can't wait until Trump sources this as evidence that the election is rigged at one of his rallies.

"The election is rigged. You know, I know it. Everybody knows it! Technology is saying I'm winning, BIG LEAGUE. The AI, uh, cyber, can't lie. Has never been wrong but Crooked Hillary says she is up in the polls. And the biased media do nothing to dismiss it! There's something going on here, believe me!"
 

Vanillalite

Ask me about the GAF Notebook
Less people vote in the primaries, but the people that DO vote in the primaries are more likely to be engaged in the political process as a whole. So I'm not surprised if those people are also more active on social media politically.

That line of reasoning doesn't pan out to the general election.
 

kavanf1

Member
One thing's for sure, neither Clinton nor those who intend to vote for her can afford to be complacent. Hopefully this info helps encourage people to go out and vote.
 

Pakkidis

Member
Using social media to predict outcomes of elections has become increasingly popular because of the amount of data available publically. In September, Nick Beauchamp, an assistant professor of political science at Northeastern University, published a paper about his experiment applying AI to more than 100 million tweets in the 2012 election. He found that this closely mirrored the results seen in state-level polling.

Should tell you all you need to know.
 

Shaneus

Member
"THE FRONT PAGE OF REDDIT WAS ALL ABOUT DONALD TRUMP. I PREDICT HE WILL WIN BY 837,312,768 VOTES.

ANALYSIS COMPLETED"
 
Data such as engagement with tweets or Facebook Live videos have been taken into account
I don't think this would yield accurate results, especially since trump has been dominating news feeds... not for good reasons.
 
Omg those first responses lmao I'm glad I clicked on this thread.

I have nothing of value to add so I'll just say this:

Potatoes
 
"The polls are wrong, we're actually winning"
"People's ballots are being changed when they vote!"
"This system that has never been wrong before is predicting we'll win!"

Like clockwork, every 4 years from the probable losers of the election.

Things never change.
 

Henkka

Banned
If there's ever been a candidate to fool this kind of AI, it's Trump. While he's losing overall, his supporters are constantly spamming social media, and his haters are constantly talking about him. Just watching a rally yesterday, they got the crowd to chant:

"WE LOVE TRUMP, WE LOVE TRUMP, WE LOVE TRUMP"

It's like a cult at this point
 

Cuburt

Member
Trump will once again defy expectations by losing the election while also having the most engagement on social media, where he has Twitter Wars and rants at 3 in the morning.

When looking into why their AI was wrong, they'll realize people talked about him because he is famous and controversial, both something previous Presidential candidates weren't to this extent.

One good thing about social media in this election is that while it helped Trump's campaign bigly, when the Access Hollywood tape surfaced, it also hurt his campaign bigly.
 

RPGCrazied

Member
Hahaha, this man child is NOT becoming our President. I don't give a shit what an AI system finds. Even Hillary is making deep red states competitive. Even if he somehow won Ohio and Florida, that still isn't enough. I don't think he would win Florida, no chance he gets Pennsylvania. So, again, he is not going to win. Give it a rest already.
 
We're still a few decades away from AI being advanced enough to simulate and calculate a realistic data model that accounts for fuckery on the level of Donald Trump.
 
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