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UK set to trigger Brexit on March 29

When should the UK celebrate Independence Day?

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D

Dougald

Member
Rubixcuba said:
Hows the Pound going? Im heading to the UK in 4 weeks from Australia, should I hold off buying Pounds til next week? (Sorry UK GAF!)
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Most of the drop is probably priced in already, but if you're buying Sterling you'll probably get a slightly better rate if you wait
 
X

Xando

Member
Considering it's election year i thought these polls made about brexit negotiations in germany were quite interesting:

11% of germans want to give Britain large concessions (on FoM for example).
47% only want small concessions towards Britain
36% want to give Britain no concessions
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http://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Umfragen/Politbarometer/Archiv/Politbarometer_2017/Januar_II_2017/

Negotiations will be in full swing when the germans vote (september). Will be interesting if this becomes a larger topic in germany because at the moment all most no one talks about Brexit.
 
R

RenditMan

Banned
Xando said:
Bloomberg reports it could be as much as 1000 jobs. Not what i call a small team
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We're going to see relatively small shifts in EU operations what we might not get told about so much is the increases in Worldwide operations as there becomes a small shift in focus for the UK banks.
 
I

ittoryu

Member
RenditMan said:
We're going to see relatively small shifts in EU operations what we might not get told about so much is the increases in Worldwide operations as there becomes a small shift in focus for the UK banks.
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Can you clarify what do you mean?

I see that banks are preparing to move people *outside* of UK (or hiring them on site directly), I have no idea about the remaining bit of your post.
 
C

chadskin

Member
UK-based airlines told to move to Europe after Brexit or lose major routes
EU chiefs have warned airlines including easyJet, Ryanair and British Airways that they will need to relocate headquarters and sell off shares to European nationals if they want to continue flying routes within continental Europe after Brexit.

Executives at major carriers have been reminded during recent private meetings with officials that to continue to operate on routes across the continent – for instance from Milan to Paris – they must have a significant base on EU territory and that a majority of their capital shares must be EU-owned.

The development, just days from the triggering of article 50, potentially makes it more likely that the carriers will now act to restructure, with economic consequences for the UK, including a loss of jobs.
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J

jelly

Member
The banks are preparing for the worse outcome. They need foundations in other countries and how ever many staff that takes. If May somehow strikes a deal then great but banks aren't waiting around to find out. Just have to wait and see but if they go, shit hits the fan.
 
X

Xando

Member
RenditMan said:
We're going to see relatively small shifts in EU operations what we might not get told about so much is the increases in Worldwide operations as there becomes a small shift in focus for the UK banks.
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It remains to be seen if there is going to be a increase that can outweigh the movements to the continent.

Unless May is going to lower taxes and turn the UK into a tax haven (like hammond suggested before) i don't see why you would move your business to the UK instead of NY, Dublin, Frankfurt, Paris or Singapore.

The problem is that without EU passporting the UK is directly competing with NY without it's main advantage and unless there are other incentives(tax breaks or something) there is not much for financial institutions in the UK to settle.

It's not like we are talking about 1000 jobs, we are talking about here. More like 5000-10000 if not more.

ittoryu said:
Can you clarify what do you mean?

I see that banks are preparing to move people *outside* of UK (or hiring them on site directly), I have no idea about the remaining bit of your post.
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He suggests financial service could move their world wide operations to the UK without explaining how he comes to this conclusion. At this point there isn't much speaking for his suggestion

chadskin said:
UK-based airlines told to move to Europe after Brexit or lose major routes
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Huh i always thought Ryan Air is irish.
 
F

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Halph n Halph said:
I beleive a tax haven is a fairly likely outcome.
I'm sure the most anti EU MPs over the years always had this in mind.
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Then watch the EU finally overhaul its rules regarding tax avoidance (which we really need, tbh). The cogs are already in motion; the UK turning into a huge tax haven would accelerate things. Officials have already decried similar implications as being made in bad faith.
 
A

Ashes

Banned
Funky Papa said:
Then watch the EU finally overhaul its rules regarding tax avoidance (which we really need, tbh). The cogs are already in motion; the UK turning into a huge tax haven would accelerate things. Officials have already decried similar implications as being made in bad faith.
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Hopefully it does regardless of UK government policies.
 
E

EmiPrime

Member
Funky Papa said:
Then watch the EU finally overhaul its rules regarding tax avoidance (which we really need, tbh). The cogs are already in motion; the UK turning into a huge tax haven would accelerate things. Officials have already decried similar implications as being made in bad faith.
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Imagine the Daily Mail headlines.
 
R

Rodelero

Member
Halph n Halph said:
I beleive a tax haven is a fairly likely outcome.
I'm sure the most anti EU MPs over the years always had this in mind.
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The biggest reason Brexit is going to be a disaster for our country isn't Brexit itself, but the kinds of people who have been pushed into power by Brexit. Because the country desires leaving the European Union, we have seen a significant and fairly sudden rightward shift in the political landscape. From a layman's perspective, the most obvious reason to reject Brexit was not so much the complex economics and politics, but the types of people leading that campaign.
 
C

Carn82

Member
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...court-leaked-strategy-documents-a7641406.html

A draft plan – apparently obtained by a Dutch newspaper – threatens a long legal battle to grab back what the EU regards as the UK’s liabilities, if Theresa May refuses to pay up
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The EU will take Britain to the International Court of Justice if it tries to walk away without paying an estimated £50bn ‘divorce bill’, a leak of its negotiating strategy says.
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A lengthy battle at the International Court could also hold up attempts to reach a new trade agreement with the EU, if it insists on settling the controversy over money owed first.

The leak, published by the respected De Volkskrant newspaper, says the EU strategy will also:

* Insist access to the EU single market depends upon the UK accepting the ‘four freedoms’ – including, crucially, freedom of movement of citizens, a 'red line' for Ms May.

* Propose a deal guaranteeing both the future rights of EU nationals in the UK and Britons in EU countries.

* Demand that the UK loses some of its existing trade advantages, as the price of leaving.

* Consider whether to insist that talks on future trade deal will only take place after agreement on the exit deal - or sequentially, as the UK wants.
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D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Xando said:
Yup, this is gonna get ugly.

No way May agrees to even half of that
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Literally none of that is a surprise, though. Those are all the things the EU has been expected to negotiate for since months back.
 
X

Xando

Member
Crab said:
Literally none of that is a surprise, though. Those are all the things the EU has been expected to negotiate for since months back.
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I agree.

But the enviroment in the UK has changed sharply since the referendum with the public going from 52/48 leave to EEA model to hard brexit and potentially no deal.
I don't think May is able/willing to get a compromise on these payments since public opinion in the UK will eat her alive and she seems to be more interested in keeping power rather than achieving a deal that the EU is able to accept.

The EU will compromise on a lower sum than 50 billion but there is some kind of payment that will have to be made.
 
O

oti

Banned
Someone should make a picture of Merkel and "Ich will mein a Geld zurück!".

The responses would be hilarious.
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
I thought we already had a thread on the divorce 'bill'. That money is simply money that's already been allocated for the current spending period that extends beyond Brexit. It will make sense to honour those commitments if we're going to be benefitting from the programs they're funding, and not much sense otherwise. So an agreement will be reached on that. Characterising it as "EU hitting UK with whopping great bill for leaving" is typical tabloid rubbish.

As for the "single market access depends on UK accepting the four freedoms" - why? Did Canada's single market access depend on that? South Korea? Just treat us like them and it's all good.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
QuicheFontaine said:
As for the "single market access depends on UK accepting the four freedoms" - why? Did Canada's single market access depend on that? South Korea? Just treat us like them and it's all good.
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This is one of those 'people deliberately using access differently to confuse the issue' things.

Essentially every country in the world has access to the single market, in the sense they can buy and sell to it. Saying "we'll get access" is basically setting the bar at being treated slightly better than North Korea. It's not an accomplishment.

What is important is the degree of access - what tariffs are placed on your goods? what quotas? what product regulations? what capital limitations? and so on. The access the EU is talking about, and the one they are making conditional on the four freedoms is unfettered access - no tariffs, no quotas, no regulations; the same state as all EU and EFTA members. That's not what Canada has. That's not what South Korea has.

Us being treated like Canada and South Korea would not be good, because our economy is much more integrated with Europe's than theirs are. It would result in a significantly worse economic environment for the UK than the status quo.
 
C

chadskin

Member
We're going to need a new Euler diagram soon:

1600px-Supranational_European_Bodies-en.svg.png
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Since May vowed to take the UK out of the ECHR (which is a body of the Council of Europe) in 2020, I guess they would ... join Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kosovo and the Vatican on the far-right (no pun intended)? Well, at least there's still the CTA with Ireland, I doubt that'll be affected by Brexit.
 
K

kmag

Member
Oriel said:
Not sure why Ryanair is included in that list, they're headquartered in Dublin. As for BA they could conceivably relocate their HQ to Madrid or Dublin as their parent company IAG owns Iberia and Aer Lingus. A brass plate operation would likely suffice.
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You can't just doorplate. The regulation is based on primary location AND shareholding. Ryanair will be majority non EU 'owned' as will BA and Iberia/Aer Lingus.
 
O

Oriel

Member
chadskin said:
We're going to need a new Euler diagram soon:



Since May vowed to take the UK out of the ECHR (which is a body of the Council of Europe) in 2020, I guess they would ... join Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kosovo and the Vatican on the far-right (no pun intended)? Well, at least there's still the CTA with Ireland, I doubt that'll be affected by Brexit.
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Britain has made no mention of leaving the Council of Europe.
 
O

Oriel

Member
kmag said:
You can't just doorplate. The regulation is based on primary location AND shareholding. Ryanair will be majority non EU 'owned' as will BA and Iberia/Aer Lingus.
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Ryanair is publicly traded on the Irish Stock Exchange and headquartered at Dublin Airport, their primary hub. They're not a British company, lol.
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
There's a lot more to London's financial dominance than access to the EU though. If that were all, Dublin would be king owing to it's English language, comparatively cheaper costs and lower rates of corporation tax. The reason London is such a behemoth has more to do with an unusually advanced centralisation of professional services that offer something that not many other cities can. Obviously being in the EU is an advantage but I don't think suddenly everyone's going to up-root to places that they could have been in all along anyway.
 
K

kmag

Member
Oriel said:
Ryanair is publicly traded on the Irish Stock Exchange and headquartered at Dublin Airport, their primary hub. They're not a British company, lol.
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It doesn't matter where the shares are listed, the majority of the shareholders will be non-EU and that's the actual test. It'll need to buy back the shares as will BA.

British Airways does not fly intra-Europe, but its parent company IAG is likely to need to disinvest shareholders in order to be majority EU-owned, and allow its other EU-registered carriers to continue to operate across Europe. An IAG spokesman said: ”We will continue to comply with the relevant ownership and control regulations."....

Ryanair is headquartered in Ireland, and will not have to relocate, but it has been reported that 60% of the Dublin-registered airline's capital shares are owned by EU nationals. This will be reduced to 40% once UK shareholders are excluded, making it vital to increase its EU ownership to comply with regulations.
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It's all in the article originally linked.
 
S

Shiggy

Member
European parliament will veto Brexit deal with early cut-off date for free movement

The European parliament will veto any Brexit deal that prevents EU citizens who move to the UK during the next two years from having the same rights to live and work in Britain as those already in the country.

The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, and MEPs are understood to be concerned by reports that the British government wants 29 March, when it officially notifies the EU of its intention to leave, to be the “cut-off date” for the free movement of people.

The issue was discussed at a meeting on between Barnier and senior MEPs on Monday night. A five-page resolution detailing the European parliament’s red lines, which will be voted on next Wednesday, was subsequently amended specifically to rule out any “degradation” of the rights of EU nationals arriving in the UK over the next two years.

Sir Tim Barrow, the UK’s permanent representative to the EU, will deliver a letter triggering article 50 talks at 12.30pm on Wednesday, after which the clock is ticking on the two years of talks allowed under the treaty of Lisbon.

It has been repeatedly reported that the British government believes that 29 March 2017 is the appropriate date after which EU nationals moving to the UK would have rights different from those already in the country, although government officials say publicly that that is a matter for the negotiations.

Government sources have briefed that a cut-off date at the end of the two years of talks would open the UK to a rush of EU citizens seeking to enter the country. The European parliament’s resolution will nevertheless insist on “equity, reciprocity, symmetry and non-discrimination” for all EU nationals as long as Britain remains a member state.

The leader of the socialist bloc in the European parliament, Gianni Pittella, declined to comment on the detail of the European parliament’s resolution, but confirmed that MEPs would not accept discrimination between EU citizens.

He said: “We have heard that Theresa May is considering a cut-off date as the notification date. We completely disagree on this and we believe that the British citizens and those from the other 27 states are EU citizens until the day of the divorce. During this period the UK is a member state with full rights and obligations.

“It cannot be right that someone signing a work contract in the UK on Tuesday has more rights than someone signing a contract on Thursday.”

In a further sign that the chamber will prove a major thorn in the British prime minister’s side, the Guardian has learned that MEPs will also insist in their resolution that a trade deal cannot be sealed within two years but only after the UK leaves, echoing the position of the European commission.

It will demand that the European court of justice “should be the competent authority for the interpretation and enforcement of the withdrawal agreement”.

And while MEPs will say that Britain should be allowed to change its mind about leaving the EU during the two years of talks, they will insist that this must be strictly on terms decreed by the remaining 27 EU member states. MEPs want to ensure that revocation of the triggering of article 50 will not be used by the UK simply to buy more negotiating time once the two years of talks laid down in the treaty of Lisbon are done.

The parliament will also demand that the UK’s multi-billion pound financial liabilities, including commitments to spend on projects after 2019, should be paid in full by the Treasury. Senior figures in the European parliament have decided to issue further resolutions at key pinch-points in the talks, to strengthen the hand of the EU’s Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, as he sits down with David Davis, the secretary of state for exiting the EU.
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https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ament-freedom-movement?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


I cannot see the UK getting any benefits out of the Brexit.
 
Charles Brandon

Charles Brandon

Member
Isn't the distinction not that they won't have rights now, more that they won't continue to have rights after we leave? Which is arguably fair enough otherwise I guess you might get a flood of people migrating to the UK to "reserve" UK rights (and vice versa I suppose) in advance of the end of the relationship.

Making that a red-line just makes the position of those people already here more precarious.
 
Theonik

Theonik

Member
CyclopsRock said:
There's a lot more to London's financial dominance than access to the EU though. If that were all, Dublin would be king owing to it's English language, comparatively cheaper costs and lower rates of corporation tax. The reason London is such a behemoth has more to do with an unusually advanced centralisation of professional services that offer something that not many other cities can. Obviously being in the EU is an advantage but I don't think suddenly everyone's going to up-root to places that they could have been in all along anyway.
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This is half right. London will still offer many of the advantages it offers today the difference is that now you will also need to have offices outside London to have access to the EU market which might motivate some companies to move out of London or reduce the size of their London offices to focus instead on the larger EU market. The good part of the old arrangement was you could have the best of both worlds.
 
S

Shadowhelper

Banned
Theonik said:
This is half right. London will still offer many of the advantages it offers today the difference is that now you will also need to have offices outside London to have access to the EU market which might motivate some companies to move out of London or reduce the size of their London offices to focus instead on the larger EU market. The good part of the old arrangement was you could have the best of both worlds.
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I think the UK and London is going to become a tax haven, at the cost of the poorer regions. It'll be a deregulated MNCs dream, while the EU will have far higher tax rates and regulations.

We'll all be on the losing end, but the UK will get it the worst. I think we'll keep a lot of those jobs because the government has shown we are willing to subsidize those corporations to keep them here, but that money will come from cuts to the people who voted for brexit in the first place.

We'll still lose jobs, but it will be less, and tax revenue will be far far less. And anyway, if you've noticed the EU hasn't been talking much about London's banking industry and its potential rights, because they are too afraid of crashing the financial economy as it would also crash their own economies.

So, I think London's most important industry will remain protected, the high paid banking jobs, but the few other industries we made money in will be hurt pretty badly. The country is going to hurt, that's for sure.
 
Charles Brandon

Charles Brandon

Member
Shadowhelper said:
I think the UK and London is going to become a tax haven, at the cost of the poorer regions. It'll be a deregulated MNCs dream, while the EU will have far higher tax rates and regulations.

We'll all be on the losing end, but the UK will get it the worst. I think we'll keep a lot of those jobs because the government has shown we are willing to subsidize those corporations to keep them here, but that money will come from cuts to the people who voted for brexit in the first place.

We'll still lose jobs, but it will be less, and tax revenue will be far far less. And anyway, if you've noticed the EU hasn't been talking much about London's banking industry and its potential rights, because they are too afraid of crashing the financial economy as it would also crash their own economies.

So, I think London's most important industry will remain protected, the high paid banking jobs, but the few other industries we made money in will be hurt pretty badly. The country is going to hurt, that's for sure.
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There's going to be hurt all other, mostly in the UK but the implications for France, Ireland, certain sectors of German industry, an independent Scotland, Spain and many other places are also not great (but obviously no where near as bad in some cases). Unless both sides pull their heads out of their arses.
 
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