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UK set to trigger Brexit on March 29

When should the UK celebrate Independence Day?


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PJV3

Member
Just stick your fingers in your ears, shake your head from side to side and yell "PROJECT FEAR" loudly over and over.

That article is a bit weird to be honest, like the UK was just hoping the EU forgot about the legal battle over the location.

It's why I thought it might be a load of cobblers, but then we seemed surprised about Spain getting funny about Gibraltar.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/04/uk-jobs-merkel-juncker-euro-clearing-eu-manfred-weber-brexit

That doesn't sound too good, the UK thought it wouldn't happen so I'm not sure what to think.

Fox will need to sell a lot of innovative preserves to that evil shit in the Philippines to make up the difference.
Yeah... Issue is that the people who voted Leave could hardly give a shit. They don't work in London for these massive industries, at least directly, so they're not really looking at this shitting themselves. That's what's fucked up but from their perspective the City has been accruing wealth, passing it on to degree educated folks and leaving them on minimum wage with rising costs. They're blaming the 'establishment' and this is part of that. There will be no tears shed over our jobs.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/04/uk-jobs-merkel-juncker-euro-clearing-eu-manfred-weber-brexit

That doesn't sound too good, the UK thought it wouldn't happen so I'm not sure what to think.

Fox will need to sell a lot of innovative preserves to that evil shit in the Philippines to make up the difference.

That anyone in the UK government thought this wouldn't​ happen should inform everyone how negotiations are going to go. The UK is bringing a nerf gun to a real gunfight because they don't believe the other side is serious.

Leave. You can still leave and settle in the EU. They won't kick you out, even if the UK decides to use that card. The EU is looking ahead, the UK wants to go back to the good old days.

Leave.
 

CTLance

Member
Oh my, that guardian piece was fairly brutal. Or rather, honest. That part about being alone, oof.

... up to 230k affected workplaces, too. That's a damn big number.

I mean, nothing in the article is new, per se, but having it reiterated (for the umpteenth time, natch) in such a frank manner is still harrowing.


Well, seeing how we've gotten our warning about the incoming thread lock... Better to start any further discussion in the Brexit thread in discussions, I guess?
 

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Confirming the obvious:


http://news.sky.com/story/no-signed-future-brexit-deal-within-two-years-says-theresa-may-10824347


Basically no transitional deal = WTO on march 29th 2019

Uh, I'm going to need more details, because no transitional deal of any kind looks like a huge deal (uhuh) and goes against the wishes of a number of countries that would prefer a softer Brexit with temporal, short term arrangements.

Edit: The way I read it just means that the UK can't negotiate a new trade deal during Brexit procedures, which was the official line. A transitional deal would refer to a short time implementation period after Brexit while negotiates a new, permanent deal. I don't think they are quite the same thing, but maybe I'm missing something else.
 

tuxfool

Banned
Yeah... Issue is that the people who voted Leave could hardly give a shit. They don't work in London for these massive industries, at least directly, so they're not really looking at this shitting themselves. That's what's fucked up but from their perspective the City has been accruing wealth, passing it on to degree educated folks and leaving them on minimum wage with rising costs. They're blaming the 'establishment' and this is part of that. There will be no tears shed over our jobs.

But this impacts them too, whether they like it or not.

Confirming the obvious:


http://news.sky.com/story/no-signed-future-brexit-deal-within-two-years-says-theresa-may-10824347


Basically no transitional deal = WTO on march 29th 2019
Eh, this looks to me like they're talking about a real FTA or deal, not a transitional one.
 

Kyougar

Member
And nobody is talking about the other 150 trade deals the UK has to re-negotiate.
UK-EU trade is big,


https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/
44% of UK exports in goods and services went to other countries in the EU in 2016—£240 billion out of £550 billion total exports.

53% of our imports into the UK came from other countries in the EU in 2016.

Even IF we give UK the best deal ever, even IF there is a 10 year transitional phase dampening the impact.
There is still half the trade crashing to WTO levels.
 
Uh, I'm going to need more details, because no transitional deal of any kind looks like a huge deal (uhuh) and goes against the wishes of a number of countries that would prefer a softer Brexit with temporal, short term arrangements.

The details​are there...

"I'm clear that by the point at which we leave the EU, it's right that everyone will know what the future arrangement, relationship, partnership between us and EU will be. That's the sensible thing, it's a pragmatic way to look at it."

It is that outline of a future arrangement which will be done in two years, not a signed deal
 

Xando

Member
Uh, I'm going to need more details, because no transitional deal of any kind looks like a huge deal (uhuh) and goes against the wishes of a number of countries that would prefer a softer Brexit with temporal, short term arrangements.

Article just says UK-EU wouldn't be able to sign a trade deal before UK being a third country (kinda obvious, how do you sign a trade deal with yourself?) which would mean the UK would go to WTO if there is no transitional deal inplace when Art. 50 process is done (march 29, 2019).


FTA within 2 years is just too short of a timeframe.

And nobody is talking about the other 150 trade deals the UK has to re-negotiate.
UK-EU trade is big,


https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/




Even IF we give UK the best deal ever, even IF there is a 10 year transitional phase dampening the impact.
There is still half the trade crashing to WTO levels.

I feel like this is not talked about enough. Even if UK gets a FTA with the EU within 2 years they wouldn't be able to trade with other countries using EU FTAs
 
Yeah... Issue is that the people who voted Leave could hardly give a shit. They don't work in London for these massive industries, at least directly, so they're not really looking at this shitting themselves. That's what's fucked up but from their perspective the City has been accruing wealth, passing it on to degree educated folks and leaving them on minimum wage with rising costs. They're blaming the 'establishment' and this is part of that. There will be no tears shed over our jobs.

Reading comments on certain forums and comment sections shows these people are more than happy they've hurt the 'elites' in London. If you bring up they've hurt themselves too, they say it's a price worth paying to 'fix the country' and it won't be as bad as all the paid experts say it will be.

These people are lost. You can't debate them.
 

PJV3

Member
She(May) said: "No, it will be possible to continue trade arrangements with countries that we have previously had them with through the EU when we are outside."

However, the EU Council document released last week seemed to rule that out.


Good fucking grief.
Is she going to just copy and paste the deals and edit in the UK. I hope things get clear really fast, it's bollocks at the moment.
 
Reading comments on certain forums and comment sections shows these people are more than happy they've hurt the 'elites' in London. If you bring up they've hurt themselves too, they say it's a price worth paying to 'fix the country' and it won't be as bad as all the paid experts say it will be.

These people are lost. You can't debate them.
True and its somewhat ironic that the people who believe this have enabled the Tories, the Tories, to determine our economic and social future free of EU regulation.

We can be as annoyed as we want but these people have been conned and lied to for years.

But this impacts them too, whether they like it or not
But from their perspectives: How?

They're already struggling, their wages have already stagnated, they've already not seen a pay-rise in years.
 

Xando

Member
But from their perspectives: How?

They're already struggling, their wages have already stagnated, they've already not seen a pay-rise in years.

They'll be impacted the hardest when all that sweet tax money isn't there anymore and taxes get raised or the NHS is dead.

People live in their own little bubble and don't think about consequences.
 

kmag

Member
What kind of argument is this? If they're saying Euro clearing has to be on EU soil, how is it going to go to NY?

Large scale Euro clearing is done in NYC (and Japan) via equivalence frameworks and regulation. The ECB would simply deny the UK equivalence, there's nothing which can force them to give the UK equivalence even if the regulatory frameworks are compatible (the ECB can simply sit on the application or move it on at a glacial pace until all the business has already transferred). The typical commentary is that it would be unwise for the ECB to go down that route, but what about this whole process has been wise?

As for NYC since its regulatory framework is already deemed equivalent the thought is a majority of the business would slope off there which is probably right, but a significant amount would go to the Eurozone because frankly that's where a lot of the customers are.
 

suedester

Banned
Large scale Euro clearing is done in NYC (and Japan) via equivalence frameworks and regulation. The ECB would simply deny the UK equivalence, there's nothing which can force them to give the UK equivalence even if the regulatory frameworks are compatible (the ECB can simply sit on the application or move it on at a glacial pace until all the business has already transferred). The typical commentary is that it would be unwise for the ECB to go down that route, but what about this whole process has been wise?

As for NYC since its regulatory framework is already deemed equivalent the thought is a majority of the business would slope off there which is probably right, but a significant amount would go to the Eurozone because frankly that's where a lot of the customers are.
From a layman's perspective that seems unlikely unless the EU really wanted to be punitive. It would lead to pretty hostile relations though and I don't believe anyone from the EU wants that.
 

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
From a layman's perspective that seems unlikely unless the EU really wanted to be punitive. It would lead to pretty hostile relations though and I don't believe anyone from the EU wants that.

Is this another case of "the EU must be nice and give me the things I want because of reasons"?

The UK is no longer family and the EU must move to protect its members and provide for them. I don't know it's particularly nice/smart of them, but it's not like the UK is owed anything.
 
From a layman's perspective that seems unlikely unless the EU really wanted to be punitive. It would lead to pretty hostile relations though and I don't believe anyone from the EU wants that.

From my perspective the ECB already tried to move it to an Euro country while the UK was in the EU, if you think they'll be fine with it now that the UK is out, well, I have a nice bridge to sell you...
 
Is this another case of "the EU must be nice and give me the things I want because of reasons"?

The UK is no longer family and the EU must move to protect its members and provide for them. I don't think it's particularly smart, but it's not like the UK is owed anything.

Nah, it's pretty smart in this case. It's a shit show, and people will be hurt, but some EU politicians will get to say they managed to bring some good high paying jobs to compensate for the pain...
 

tuxfool

Banned
Large scale Euro clearing is done in NYC (and Japan) via equivalence frameworks and regulation. The ECB would simply deny the UK equivalence, there's nothing which can force them to give the UK equivalence even if the regulatory frameworks are compatible (the ECB can simply sit on the application or move it on at a glacial pace until all the business has already transferred). The typical commentary is that it would be unwise for the ECB to go down that route, but what about this whole process has been wise?

As for NYC since its regulatory framework is already deemed equivalent the thought is a majority of the business would slope off there which is probably right, but a significant amount would go to the Eurozone because frankly that's where a lot of the customers are.

So from the EU perspective it is a win regardless. Which again begs the question as to why they'd lobby with that argument.
 

kmag

Member
It should be noted that parts of the EU are of the opinion that the current financial equivalency models need serious reworking and should be reviewed in their entirety.

It's also a bit more problematic for CCP's as while a countries financial market may be given equivalence clearing equivalency under EMIR, individual institutions would then have to apply for individual recognition through the European Securities and Markets Authority.
 
Are we back to being outraged at The S*n?

Lord.

It should be a banned address.

dontbuythesunhillsborough.jpg
 
They'll be impacted the hardest when all that sweet tax money isn't there anymore and taxes get raised or the NHS is dead.

People live in their own little bubble and don't think about consequences.
Yeah, perhaps but the alternative is that they genuinely don't understand the consequences.

I kind of want this to bite them on the arse for fucking over large parts of the country but that doesn't necessarily make them bad people or mean that we should revel in their pain if and when that comes (I know you're not saying we should).
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Anyone could have seen this coming, complete with the loss of prized jobs in the City of London. There are many in the EU who want to be punitive even if certain other major financial centres outside the EU are allowed Euro clearing on a massive scale.

That's a huge tax base gone, hence why the UK government appears to have used cooperation in other matters as a threat, because there is very little leverage.

But I think the words out of Weber seal that there won't be much cooperation in the near future.

”From now on we will have the interests of the EU27 in mind, not of the British," Weber said. ”That's the outcome when you leave this family.

”Some of the politicians in London have not understood what leaving the European Union means. It means being alone."

That can go both ways. The Tories aren't exactly going to respond "oh, sorry" to that. I don't see any way in which there's an amicable agreement about much at all.

Based on what? The same ignorance you're suggesting everyone else has on the subject?

Yes, I'll choose to remain ignorant of that cuckolding business he was talking about. All the more power to you, I don't judge.

In all seriousness, to any outsider like you or I, he seems like any other politician looking at anything else. I should have put that I bet he's a great leader instead, so yes, you caught me. I did know beforehand that he's left of centre though which made some of the responses to his comment a bit much.
 

Xando

Member
Anyone could have seen this coming, complete with the loss of prized jobs in the City of London. There are many in the EU who want to be punitive even if certain other major financial centres outside the EU are allowed Euro clearing on a massive scale.
I still don't see how this is punitive when this was literally mentioned by the EU and remain campaign before the vote and people chose to believe in some magic deal that would keep the UK in the single market.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
I still don't see how this is punitive when this was literally mentioned by the EU and remain campaign before the vote and people chose to believe in some magic deal that would keep the UK in the single market.

In the sense that it can be done elsewhere.

Large scale Euro clearing is done in NYC (and Japan) via equivalence frameworks and regulation. The ECB would simply deny the UK equivalence, there's nothing which can force them to give the UK equivalence even if the regulatory frameworks are compatible (the ECB can simply sit on the application or move it on at a glacial pace until all the business has already transferred).

Obviously it won't be, and that was warned repeatedly. Still deliberately punitive, but expected.
 
Reading comments on certain forums and comment sections shows these people are more than happy they've hurt the 'elites' in London. If you bring up they've hurt themselves too, they say it's a price worth paying to 'fix the country' and it won't be as bad as all the paid experts say it will be.

These people are lost. You can't debate them.

God everytime I think about people like that I get so worked up.
I worked fucking hard to get where I am, and if these lazy c**ts have jeopardised mine or my wife's careers then this country can go fuck itself. I'm out. Get your tax money somewhere else.

Sorry, rant over.
 

Micael

Member
They'll be impacted the hardest when all that sweet tax money isn't there anymore and taxes get raised or the NHS is dead.

That's awfully optimistic to think its a "or" situation instead of a "and" one.
To join on the optimism the secretary of state for health has clearly anticipated brexit and seems to have been making great strides in killing the NHS, the all near constant brexit coverage in the following years should give him some really nice coverage to ramp things up, so when it comes time to pull the trigger the NHS should be more or less on its knees begging to be killed, so yeah and people say the UK wasn't prepared for brexit.
 

suedester

Banned
Is this another case of "the EU must be nice and give me the things I want because of reasons"?

The UK is no longer family and the EU must move to protect its members and provide for them. I don't know it's particularly nice/smart of them, but it's not like the UK is owed anything.

No, if they don't mind the Euro being cleared in NYC then why stop it being done in London.

So even after you threatening with a war, they should still put you before their own citizens. British arrogance at its finest.

Nobody threatened war. A comparison was made with Falklands by an old slightly loopy Tory but that war was purely defensive.
 

avaya

Member
No, if they don't mind the Euro being cleared in NYC then why stop it being done in London.

Because all of London's loss does not 100% go to NYC. A fairly large chunk will come to Europe since that is where the clients will tend to be for Euro transactions. They have every reason to decimate London for this fact alone.
 

Maztorre

Member
No, if they don't mind the Euro being cleared in NYC then why stop it being done in London.

Because they see the chance to clear it in the EU and make lots of money for EU economies? The EU can do whatever the fuck they want with Euro clearing, Britain is the one who decided to leave despite this exact issue being on the table.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
So even after you threatening with a war, they should still put you before their own citizens. British arrogance at its finest.

No...but if it can be done in New York, then deciding that it cannot be done in London is a punitive measure. It may be a punitive measure you agree with and indeed it was something the Leavers were constantly warned about, but it is a punitive measure since there is no other reason not to allow it other than to take jobs and revenue away from the United Kingdom, that is all.
 

tuxfool

Banned
No...but if it can be done in New York, then deciding that it cannot be done in London is a punitive measure. It may be a punitive measure you agree with and indeed it was something the Leavers were constantly warned about, but it is a punitive measure since there is no other reason not to allow it other than to take jobs away.

Nope, it is to move some jobs into the EU. This is the EU looking out for the EU.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Nope, it is to move some jobs into the EU. This is the EU looking out for the EU.

In a punitive way since similar work is done outside the EU. This is being done specifically to hurt London without any equivalent in other financial centres outside the EU. You're essentially agreeing with me.
 

Maledict

Member
I wouldn't even argue it's punitive. The three great financial centres and timezones are Europe, America and the Far East. It makes sense to have a clearing house for Euro's in each of those, and for the European one to be in the EU.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
What exactly does the EU want, if anything?

The exit bill? Probably won't be paid all at once like the EU wants, as what negotiations are there to be had with the potential veto of 27 other members and over the course of less than 2 years? The final figure owed is subject to debate as the EU itself has mentioned.

There's just no way this ends up going smoothly at all.
 
What exactly does the EU want, if anything?

The exit bill? Probably won't be paid all at once like the EU wants, as what negotiations are there to be had with the potential veto of 27 other members and over the course of less than 2 years? The final figure owed is subject to debate as the EU itself has mentioned.

There's just no way this ends up going smoothly at all.

Sure sucks for the UK, though that's nothing compared to the incoming trading deals with other big powers.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
Is she going to just copy and paste the deals and edit in the UK. I hope things get clear really fast, it's bollocks at the moment.

I don't think this works as well as she hopes. The countries might not agree with the same terms when they are dealing with a much smaller partner than before.
 

Maztorre

Member
What exactly does the EU want, if anything?

The exit bill? Probably won't be paid all at once like the EU wants, as what negotiations are there to be had with the potential veto of 27 other members and over the course of less than 2 years? The final figure owed is subject to debate as the EU itself has mentioned.

There's just no way this ends up going smoothly at all.

They want the UK out, at minimum damage to themselves, preferably with some gains regarding Euro clearing etc to mitigate the loss in GDP.
 
What exactly does the EU want, if anything?

The exit bill? Probably won't be paid all at once like the EU wants, as what negotiations are there to be had with the potential veto of 27 other members and over the course of less than 2 years? The final figure owed is subject to debate as the EU itself has mentioned.

There's just no way this ends up going smoothly at all.

Of course not. That's exactly what remainers and the EU have said right from the beginning of this debate.
 

Joni

Member
In a punitive way since similar work is done outside the EU. This is being done specifically to hurt London without any equivalent in other financial centres outside the EU. You're essentially agreeing with me.
The EU tried to force clearing houses with significant euro business to be inside the EUrozone. They will bring that back, even if they won't discriminate between euro and non euro countries anymore. That would affect NY as well if it grew further.
 

TCRS

Banned
'Hey guys you're not in the EU anymore so it's okay if we start questioning the sovereignity of parts of your territory and ignore the will of the local population. What?! What are you getting mad for?'

eu logic
 
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