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Danganronpa Mafia |OT| Grin and Bear It
- Thread starter LaunchpadMcQ
- Start date
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Check the third post for remaining time. I wish I could update more at work, but my employer blocks NeoGAF so it's difficult.
While that's not the strongest defense in the world, I appreciate that it can also be the truth. I came to the same conclusion you did: it is what it is.
My vote remains with tera, and I urge anyone thinking of voting for Rest to consider the situation carefully. Some people have expressed doubt on Rest before now, that's fine, I'm not trying to change any opinions on him as mine aren't that strong to begin with.
CornBurrito
Member
I'm personally going to keep my vote on Rest for now, but will consider changing it as we draw closer to the final hour of the Day.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
From now on, so as to avoid clutter, I'm not going to be posting decisions with 0 votes on them. If you want to see voting history, consult the spreadsheet in the third post of the thread.
Time Remaining in the Day Phase:
Current votes
(12 votes needed for majority):
Names with astrike voted, and then unvoted.
A Human Becoming (1)
Crab
*Splinter
Zippedpinhead
TL21xx (2)
franconp
goshujinsama
SalvaPot (1)
Kalor
Pau
Crab
ViviOggi (1)
BarryLocke
kingkitty
Sawneeks (1)
swamped
kgtrep
swamped
Rest (4)
Sawneeks
Kalor
kingkitty
Terrabyte20xx
CornBurrito
Makai (2)
Crab
CzarTim
Zippedpinhead
Pau
kingkitty (3)
AbsolutBro
CzarTim
CornBurrito
ViviOggi
Rest
Hagi
Hagi (1)
Sawneeks
swamped
Terrabyte20xx (1)
Sawneeks
*Splinter
No Punishment (2)
Makai
SalvaPot
Just a reminder, we are playing with a plurality - meaning if one decision has more votes than any other at the end of the Day Phase, that is the decision that goes into effect.
Also, let me know if I made a mistake. It's a little tricky keeping track of votes.
Time Remaining in the Day Phase:
Current votes
(12 votes needed for majority):
Names with a
A Human Becoming (1)
*Splinter
Zippedpinhead
TL21xx (2)
franconp
goshujinsama
SalvaPot (1)
Pau
Crab
ViviOggi (1)
BarryLocke
Sawneeks (1)
kgtrep
Rest (4)
Kalor
kingkitty
Terrabyte20xx
CornBurrito
Makai (2)
CzarTim
Pau
kingkitty (3)
CzarTim
CornBurrito
ViviOggi
Rest
Hagi
Hagi (1)
swamped
Terrabyte20xx (1)
*Splinter
No Punishment (2)
Makai
SalvaPot
Just a reminder, we are playing with a plurality - meaning if one decision has more votes than any other at the end of the Day Phase, that is the decision that goes into effect.
Also, let me know if I made a mistake. It's a little tricky keeping track of votes.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I'm currently voting SalvaPot; I think you missed it.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Sorry, it's up now.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
While I'm still reading carefully through the thread I've read enough arguments that I'm voting no punishment. It's too much of a risk for Hope. The Night Phase should be more telling.
VOTE: No Punishment
I hope by tonight I'm caught up so I can contribute more.
VOTE: No Punishment
I hope by tonight I'm caught up so I can contribute more.
VOTE: A Human Becoming
First you just post enought to avoid getting a prod, all of your post don't have any info, you didn't gave your opinion on anything saying that you are taking your time making notes and now you vote No Punishment. To me that isn't good for Hope.
What arguments exactly pushed you towards this decision?
sandalphon
Member
Welcome TL21xx.
Unvote: TL21xx
Good to see the substitution mechanism works smoothly. We should have all active participants now. I will return with further inputs once I caught up.
Unvote: TL21xx
Good to see the substitution mechanism works smoothly. We should have all active participants now. I will return with further inputs once I caught up.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I'm actually a bit surprised it went as quickly as it did. Good communication from everyone involved.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
It was actually something kgtrep said a couple days ago in favor of it that made me side with no punishment. He disagreed with Makai that something should be done to save power roles, and instead that those with power roles should stay quiet. He further went on to say that people should be lynched partially so this would go down as the first GAF Mafia to get Despair and if a Hope is mistaken the person did not have a power role.
I see a fault in this argument as from the beginning people who are not inactive have been targeted, despite mixed opinion on whether silence is an indicator of role. If power roles should be quiet and being quiet leads to be voted on, the strategy does not make sense.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Oh and being the first GAF Mafia to lynch a despair on the first day is a very weak argument to do it. The chances are too low.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Power roles shouldn't be quiet, it makes them stand out from the rest. Well, that's not strictly accurate, they shouldn't be noisy either, they should hide in the middle of the pack - but they shouldn't be explicitly quiet. I find mafia tends to kill people who they suspect, and they suspect people who act differently from the norm.
CornBurrito
Member
What exactly will we know tomorrow that we don't know today? How much more will we really know? The last mafia games that started with a No Punishment, did they all end Day2 with a sure fire Despair punishment? Was the lynched person someone who was completely unsuspected on day1? These are real questions that I don't know the answer to.
Nice try, but you misread my post, either by mistake or deliberately.
Everyone, if you read my response to Makai's post on #449 (you can see both of our responses for context), you will see that,
(1) I disagreed with Makai's stance that we should do nothing because we can lose a power role.
I said, we have as much chance of losing the person with a power role from the mafia's night kill, so our inaction does not prevent us from saving Hope with power roles.
(2) Reading Makai's response first, it's clear that I meant, Hope with power roles should stay quiet about the role, not about engaging in discussions in the first place. How much each of you decides to talk is not my concern.
The chance of lynching Despair if we do nothing is 0.
The chance of lynching Despair if we vote is small (my estimate is 1/6), but definitely bigger than 0.
1- If Despair plays well not much. We can't relay in PR at this stage of the game as if someone gains some info they shouldn't be exposing themselves yet. We must engage in discussions so we can find discrepancies further in the game.
2- No. The SW game got a Hutt kill the first nigth but it was a lucky guess.
3- I'm only talking about AC game as it was the one I played and the answer is yes. I was mafia in that game and we tried to evict (instead of kill) someone who didn't said much. We wanted to gave the least information posible to town so we could get an easy second day. When the second day started town didn't have any info so it was similar to the first day and they tried to evict blindly.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Yep. I do exactly what francop did as mafia. You keep town in the blind. Kill quiet people early on, and they don't have any more information than they did earlier - yet another reason voting No Punishment is bad. Later on, you switch to noisy people - strips town of drive and leaders.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Okay, than I just misunderstood you. I was going by my note which said:
The chance of lynching Hope if we do nothing is 0.
The chance of of lynching Hope is > 1/6, your estimate. That's still bad reasoning. Maybe it was an off comment, but who cares if this is the first GAF mafia to kill a mafia on the first day? That's a rather minuscule accomplishment for the risk taken.
Maybe I'll will vote to lynch someone, but for the time being I'll hold my current vote.
Yes, from a Hope's perspective, the chance is actually higher than 1/6, since he or she would not count himself/herself. I had simply rounded it down to 1/6 as a worst-case scenario, and so that I could make an analogy to rolling a die, which is something everyone must have all done at one point.
CornBurrito
Member
How do these odds change tomorrow? Other than the obvious that one Hope (minimum) will be dead, thus slightly improving the odds that we punish a Despair. But the odds still won't be in our favor. We won't necessarily have a solid target of who to punish tomorrow simply from the loss of one Hope member.
If a Day1 lynch is blind, a Day2 lynch seems like Velma from Scooby Doo without her glasses.
I agree with this. (Although no one seemed to answer when I asked the same question.) Tomorrow we'll just be reducing our odds by one person and given the number of playets, that's pretty neglible.
It's also possible that a Doctor could save the person from the mafia (believe in Hope!).
CornBurrito, Pau, let's worry about Day 2 when it comes. We do not even know yet who will die on Night 1 and what some of us may learn during this night. For now, finding the right person to lynch is utmost crucial.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Alright, I've been persuaded. I'm still very new to this game.
Unvote: No Punishment
Does that work or do I just vote for someone to overwrite it?
That works.
I want to make a note that voting is so close than a tie is highly likely, in that case there will be a no-lynch situation, right? Just letting everyone know to plan your voting accordingly.
CornBurrito
Member
Personally I'm not making any assumptions as to what/how many power roles Hope has. So I'm working under the assumption that we have none for my example.
As for worrying about Day2 when it comes, I agree. I believe my vote is still cast on Rest.
You want me to guess who is Mafia based on my "gut." There is zero utility in killing people over what amounts to personality evaluations. You need at least partial information to form a conjecture. We know nothing about individual players on Day 1. But here's what I do know - Power roles will be king in this game. The special rules clearly point to that:
Launchpad bolded that, not me. My guess is Despair have to grab a murder weapon from one of the four main rooms before making a kill. Hope has power roles who can watch a room and see who went into it. If I were Despair, I would pressure people into revealing their roles and then prioritize killing power roles. Hope shouldn't jump the gun so soon. We will know a lot more on day 2 and Launchpad explicitly said so. Day 1 No Punishment.
CornBurrito
Member
You can do either.
Unvoting will negate your vote and replace it with nothing.
Voting will automatically overwrite a previous vote, meaning you do NOT need to unvote before changing your vote.
CornBurrito
Member
I'm going to say that I believe a Day1 lynch will bring far more information than simply waiting ever could, even if that Day1 lynch ends in us accidentally punishing a Hope player.
For example, I am suspicious of Rest and several other people based on the whole kingkitty situation. If Rest is eliminated and ends up being Despair, well now my suspicions about those other people are worth something. If Rest is eliminated and ends up being Hope, well I now have to reevaluate everything I thought initially. I may come to some good conclusions.
With the exception of accidentally killing a crucial Power Role, there's still value in a misfire punishment.
If we punish nobody, we're still possibly left in the dark. Our Power Roles (if we do have any that can gather intel) may know some stuff, but they can't just openly state that when they do. And then we'll be spending all of Day2 trying to figure out who to trust. We'll still be in the dark.
CornBurrito
Member
Though technically we could all change to No Punishment at the last moment, use the intel we gathered by voting for people in the first place, and then use that information with the only solid piece of information we'll have (the death of a student) on Day2.
I suppose the real value in a Day1 punishment comes from people talking about who they are choosing and why. But you can have all of that and still end the day with No Punishment. If we want to play an ultra-defensive Hope game.
I suppose the real value in a Day1 punishment comes from people talking about who they are choosing and why. But you can have all of that and still end the day with No Punishment. If we want to play an ultra-defensive Hope game.
And what do you intend to do on day 2 if we have no new info? or day 3? Because basically what you are saying is that we should be voting No punishment until a PR (that we don't know nothing yet) gives us a Despair player. And that's insane.
"how you get there" didn't make sense to me, so I decided not to give thought from the beginning. For the record, Monokuma had said that many of us will figure it on Night 1, not Day 2.
I'm going to note that you gave a theory and are (maybe inadvertently) asking for others to verify or deny it, thereby testing if they have power roles.
We'll have information just off of who died. That's something to go off of. Of course, vote on Day 2. And sure, we have even more information if we have two dead people on Day 2, but I think the risk of killing a power role on Day 1 is not worth it.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
If there is a tie, there will be no punishment, as much as it saddens me.
Saddens you? You are enjoying this aren´t you, you sadistic mammal.
Back from work! Seems like a lot of exciting things happened in my absence
This post worries me for a couple reasons, and not because you think I am suspicious. I started out the game with that random vote fully aware that people would question me and my alignment. But Mafia is a game of suspicion and proving yourself, so I hoped that through my posts I would be able to show my Hope-ness. Your suspicion is not the issue.
1. Clearly, you didn't read my post 652. I'll re-iterate: I can't post at all when I'm at work, it's impossible. The most I can do i check my phone a couple of times a day. On weekends I'm usually free-er, that's why I started the game gung-ho. I don't know if you accidentally ignored my post (which, if you are, doesn't help Hope at all) or willfully ignored it, which is pretty anti-Hope imo. Even with my lower weekday post count, I want my posts to be useful, so please if you have any particular untrustworthy posts in mind show me so we can talk about it!. Honestly it feels so weird that I have to explain my weekly schedule to you in a game of Mafia. I make two posts with breakfast. I get back from work, read thread and make more posts. Explaining this doesn't feel right.
2. You briefly mentioned suspicions on Makai in a previous post, but you have mentioned me on almost every one of your posts, with the vague reason 'she changed her posting style'. You have no reads on any of the other players, which is VERY strange for Day 1, since almost everyone is suspicious lol. I'm starting to think you've latched on to me for some different, anti-Hope reason...
Your no-vote doesn't bother me much yet because you explained your reasoning even though I don't agree with it. Overall, there is something off about you but I don't know if it is because you are part of Despair. I'm not voting for you because I still feel more confident about my vote for Hagi (even though I probably won't get much traction there).
Anyway, conclusion: if there is something in particular, engage me!
This post worries me for a couple reasons, and not because you think I am suspicious. I started out the game with that random vote fully aware that people would question me and my alignment. But Mafia is a game of suspicion and proving yourself, so I hoped that through my posts I would be able to show my Hope-ness. Your suspicion is not the issue.
1. Clearly, you didn't read my post 652. I'll re-iterate: I can't post at all when I'm at work, it's impossible. The most I can do i check my phone a couple of times a day. On weekends I'm usually free-er, that's why I started the game gung-ho. I don't know if you accidentally ignored my post (which, if you are, doesn't help Hope at all) or willfully ignored it, which is pretty anti-Hope imo. Even with my lower weekday post count, I want my posts to be useful, so please if you have any particular untrustworthy posts in mind show me so we can talk about it!. Honestly it feels so weird that I have to explain my weekly schedule to you in a game of Mafia. I make two posts with breakfast. I get back from work, read thread and make more posts. Explaining this doesn't feel right.
2. You briefly mentioned suspicions on Makai in a previous post, but you have mentioned me on almost every one of your posts, with the vague reason 'she changed her posting style'. You have no reads on any of the other players, which is VERY strange for Day 1, since almost everyone is suspicious lol. I'm starting to think you've latched on to me for some different, anti-Hope reason...
Your no-vote doesn't bother me much yet because you explained your reasoning even though I don't agree with it. Overall, there is something off about you but I don't know if it is because you are part of Despair. I'm not voting for you because I still feel more confident about my vote for Hagi (even though I probably won't get much traction there).
Anyway, conclusion: if there is something in particular, engage me!
sandalphon
Member
Having caught up with the thread, this is where I stand at the moment:
My probable Hope Alignment list:
The following are notes-as-at-the-moment:
Hard to read:
Question marks:
Then there are Makai and SalvaPot, who refuse to agree with Day 1 lynch. They are both consistent with their stance, despite multiple challenges from various other players.
At this stage, I am leaning towards a vote for either Makai or SalvaPot. I understand that past games have shown that a No Lynch Day 1 have had some success - but I think 2 or 3 prior games cannot quite be regarded as statistical pattern. The logistic of information generation would suggest that it would benefit Hope more if we commit to a Day 1 lynch, if only to obtain better reads on the players for Day 2.
My probable Hope Alignment list:
- Crab - Level headed, experienced player. Good posts with enough clarity on why or who are suspicious.
- CzarTim - Highest post count with some very short posts which can be quite jabbing, even if done in jest.
- Swamped - Actively challenges various people to yield reads.
- Kalor - Moderate. Contributes insightful posts.
The following are notes-as-at-the-moment:
- Pau - Seems well liked. Likely because of out of game presence.
- CornBurrito - High activity poster. Able to hold confrontations.
- Rest - Playstyle comes across aggressive.
- ViviOggi - Responsive and makes contributions.
- Terrabyte - Active. Posts players analysis when he can.
- Sawneeks - Active. Has been using her votes effectively to garner responses.
- francorp - More on the quieter side, but makes solid posts when he posts.
Hard to read:
- AbsolutBro: Only voted for kingkitty, then unvoted. Apparently more is expected from this player but he is not playing at his previous level?
- A Human Becoming: Publishes his newness to the game quite frequently. Only vote from him has been a No Punishment vote, followed by Unvote of said No Punishment vote.
- Barrylocke: Not enough activity
- Hagi: Barely generating any reads. Seems defensive when swamped voted against him.
- Zippedpinhead: Middle of the road player, so far.
Question marks:
- kingkitty: Play has been daring and posts are responsive. Though I put him under Question Mark, he is more Hope than Despair to me.
- kgtrep: Oddball. Not sure what that card game was all about.
- TL21xx: substitute player
Then there are Makai and SalvaPot, who refuse to agree with Day 1 lynch. They are both consistent with their stance, despite multiple challenges from various other players.
At this stage, I am leaning towards a vote for either Makai or SalvaPot. I understand that past games have shown that a No Lynch Day 1 have had some success - but I think 2 or 3 prior games cannot quite be regarded as statistical pattern. The logistic of information generation would suggest that it would benefit Hope more if we commit to a Day 1 lynch, if only to obtain better reads on the players for Day 2.
Crab whyyyyyy are you giving Despair ideas
Everyone in support of voting, we need to narrow down our choices to two people, just for Day 1.
Since there are more people on Monokuma's current tally, the mafia can vote so that the day ends with a tie and no punishment, i.e. guaranteed safety for them.
I need all of you to list two people on your mind (without using the highlight tag). Say 6 hours before Day 1 officially ends, we will tally those votes and the two people with the most votes, we will choose to lynch from using the highlight tag.
To avoid confusion in tallying, please make sure to choose two people just one time (do not decide to change your answer later).
No Despair would dare forcing a tie. That's definitely a tell.
. That's always the most fun and frenetic time lol. Really hoping you won't need me to tie-break :/Yes, that is the ideal case I'd want to see. However, given that the number of high votes on Monokuma's list currently is 2 and 4 (e.g. not 7 or more), it's quite easy to render a tie even with a single vote.
By forcing ourselves to choose from two people, I'm hoping that it's more difficult to create a tie.