Hey Launch, can you update the counter for D4 on the first page?
My internet modem apparently doesn't work at all, so I'm waiting on a replacement. Should be here by tomorrow, but it limits how much I can read and post.
Despair not submitting a kill sounds virtually impossible.
I also didn't see an answer to my question: Did any of the outed rule breakers see CzarTim last night?
Hey Launch, can you update the counter for D4 on the first page?
My internet modem apparently doesn't work at all, so I'm waiting on a replacement. Should be here by tomorrow, but it limits how much I can read and post.
Despair not submitting a kill sounds virtually impossible.
I also didn't see an answer to my question: Did any of the outed rule breakers see CzarTim last night?
I think a big thing to consider is whether or not we think CzarTim's death thing on Day 3 was intentional (I see CornBurrito also mused about this). It'd be a good indicator on how the Despairs might have voted. Considering CzarTim's power, there is certainly a possibility that it was an intentional kill. But even still, there's like 4 or 5 mafia members so it seems risky to have intended to use it. I do see the possibility of it being a backup plan though. Have his neck on the line so that if things go south then he can take someone down with him.
I did promise that in exchange for not lynching me off yesterday I would talk more about ‘Fight Club’ and my role. For what it’s worth I would like to honor that promise and hopefully clear any suspicions I may have inadvertently caused because of the ‘fiasco’ that was the end of Day 3. I won’t blame anyone for continuing to hold a suspicion of me but I would implore you to use your day votes elsewhere as at this stage in the game we should not be lynching off more Hope players. That and I would not be surprised if the Mafia ended up axing me in one of the next few Nights. But I digress, I would like to explain my actions of the past few days and hopefully clear some confusion about Night 1 and this previous Night.
What I posted above is what I received at the end of Night 1, the 3 are those that I ran in to. During the start of Day 2 Kg used his ability to confine us to a Crab/Kg vote and it was something I had voiced my disapproval of. It was because, after the events of Day 1 plus my new knowledge, I believed Crab to be Hope along with CzarTim, leaving SalvaPot as the odd one out because of his little activity. I had planned to go after him on Day 2 to find out more and put pressure on him but my plan didn’t work out.
Day 2 ended and we roll into Day 3...with SalvaPot dead, revealed to be Hope-aligned. I was shocked, I was sure he was Despair and that I was on the right track! But with him dead I had to move elsewhere...and with my list as my only ‘fact’ guide I went back to it for a lead. CzarTim was my initial guess for the day and I planned to watch him closely to see what I would find. Sadly, like most of you, I fell for Tim’s play and ‘fight club’ warnings and saw him as undeniably a Hope player who was willing to sacrifice himself to prove a theory. I never doubted his authenticity and simply took it as fact, but this left me with Crab. Even after Day 2 I wasn’t ready to jump on him and question him; I still trusted him. So I wanted to test my theory; if CzarTim died and flipped Hope then I believed Crab would be Despair as he ( along with CzarTim and myself ) had seen Salva during Night 1 and he ended up dead on Night 2, meaning one of our group had to be Mafia. So I voted Tim, ready to sacrifice this Hope player for a theory against possible ‘false hope leader’ Crab.
But after the sudden bandwagon against me lead by none other than Crab himself was when my idea that he was Despair seemed very real. This is why I badgered Crab at the end of Day 3, because I believed he was scared and wanted me out-of-the-way as I had seen him move at night, something he had never hinted at. Fearing I would still be lynched despite everything I hinted at Crab having moved during the Night, hoping that when I was dead someone would pick up on it and figure out that something was wrong.
But we all know how this story ends. Czar ends up being a dirty liar and we lose our doctor and, arguably, one of our most aggressive Hope players. The only saving grace here is that no one died last night and while I have my ideas as to why this is I have nothing really concrete.
However, I did move last night. I will say that, so far, I have yet to move to the right of my room, meaning I can not confirm nor deny Ty4on/Pau being together. I can confirm that CzarTim did NOT move last night, so unless he has the ability to become invisible he didn’t cause any trouble. I did run in to one person last night but this person has yet to reveal themselves at all and I do not want to accidently out a potential Hope role. For now I will be silent on their movement.
And while many of you may still not trust me even after this I ask you to at least consider the possibility that what I have said is true and to trust that my intentions are to see Town move forward. I will post some reads in a bit for the start of a new Day but in the meantime I ask everyone to reconsider those you might ping as ‘100% Hope’ because, as CzarTim proved, Despair can be anyone.
EDIT: Took out a quote that I thoughtt I could post, my mistake. Sorry Launch.
I did promise that in exchange for not lynching me off yesterday I would talk more about ‘Fight Club’ and my role. For what it’s worth I would like to honor that promise and hopefully clear any suspicions I may have inadvertently caused because of the ‘fiasco’ that was the end of Day 3. I won’t blame anyone for continuing to hold a suspicion of me but I would implore you to use your day votes elsewhere as at this stage in the game we should not be lynching off more Hope players. That and I would not be surprised if the Mafia ended up axing me in one of the next few Nights. But I digress, I would like to explain my actions of the past few days and hopefully clear some confusion about Night 1 and this previous Night.
What I quoted above is what I received at the end of Night 1, the 3 highlighted are those that I ran in to. During the start of Day 2 Kg used his ability to confine us to a Crab/Kg vote and it was something I had voiced my disapproval of. It was because, after the events of Day 1 plus my new knowledge, I believed Crab to be Hope along with CzarTim, leaving SalvaPot as the odd one out because of his little activity. I had planned to go after him on Day 2 to find out more and put pressure on him but my plan didn’t work out.
Day 2 ended and we roll into Day 3...with SalvaPot dead, revealed to be Hope-aligned. I was shocked, I was sure he was Despair and that I was on the right track! But with him dead I had to move elsewhere...and with my list as my only ‘fact’ guide I went back to it for a lead. CzarTim was my initial guess for the day and I planned to watch him closely to see what I would find. Sadly, like most of you, I fell for Tim’s play and ‘fight club’ warnings and saw him as undeniably a Hope player who was willing to sacrifice himself to prove a theory. I never doubted his authenticity and simply took it as fact, but this left me with Crab. Even after Day 2 I wasn’t ready to jump on him and question him; I still trusted him. So I wanted to test my theory; if CzarTim died and flipped Hope then I believed Crab would be Despair as he ( along with CzarTim and myself ) had seen Salva during Night 1 and he ended up dead on Night 2, meaning one of our group had to be Mafia. So I voted Tim, ready to sacrifice this Hope player for a theory against possible ‘false hope leader’ Crab.
But after the sudden bandwagon against me lead by none other than Crab himself was when my idea that he was Despair seemed very real. This is why I badgered Crab at the end of Day 3, because I believed he was scared and wanted me out-of-the-way as I had seen him move at night, something he had never hinted at. Fearing I would still be lynched despite everything I hinted at Crab having moved during the Night, hoping that when I was dead someone would pick up on it and figure out that something was wrong.
But we all know how this story ends. Czar ends up being a dirty liar and we lose our doctor and, arguably, one of our most aggressive Hope players. The only saving grace here is that no one died last night and while I have my ideas as to why this is I have nothing really concrete.
However, I did move last night. I will say that, so far, I have yet to move to the right of my room, meaning I can not confirm nor deny Ty4on/Pau being together. I can confirm that CzarTim did NOT move last night, so unless he has the ability to become invisible he didn’t cause any trouble. I did run in to one person last night but this person has yet to reveal themselves at all and I do not want to accidently out a potential Hope role. For now I will be silent on their movement.
And while many of you may still not trust me even after this I ask you to at least consider the possibility that what I have said is true and to trust that my intentions are to see Town move forward. I will post some reads in a bit for the start of a new Day but in the meantime I ask everyone to reconsider those you might ping as ‘100% Hope’ because, as CzarTim proved, Despair can be anyone.
Please remove any PMs I might or might not have sent from this post. That's not an admission that the information is correct, but I don't want it attributed to me.
I think there is a commuter who hides in the empty room at night every other day. Despair didn't kill last night which means one of three things:
1. Their killer was role blocked,
2. They didn't submit their kill, or
3. They targeted a commuter on his hidden day.
If there IS a commuter, he would be seen by Ty4on because the empty room is directly in front of his. If Ty4on saw the person AND someone else walked by that person's room, we would theoretically find whoever submitted the kill, which, admittedly, would probably just be Czar when you think about it.
Of course this is all based on assumptions (Comutter, no ninja, Ty4on and Pau are Hope, etc.) But it is a thought.
This...I mean it's a cool theory but it seems a little convoluted, so many ifs. Honestly, I feel like this is something Despair would do, submit theories that are possibly on the complete wrong track just to derail conversation (and look at me, I'm taking the bait XD). I strongly believe CzarTim did the same with his ninja theory. This, coupled with how you voted at the end of Day 3, is increasing my suspicion of you.
Sawneeks, Czartim almost certainly went to franconp's room last night. He passed AB and Pau. How exactly did you run into Czartim without also running into Pau and AB?
Sawneeks, Czartim almost certainly went to franconp's room last night. He passed AB and Pau. How exactly did you run into Czartim without also running into Pau and AB?
I think a big thing to consider is whether or not we think CzarTim's death thing on Day 3 was intentional (I see CornBurrito also mused about this). It'd be a good indicator on how the Despairs might have voted. Considering CzarTim's power, there is certainly a possibility that it was an intentional kill. But even still, there's like 4 or 5 mafia members so it seems risky to have intended to use it. I do see the possibility of it being a backup plan though. Have his neck on the line so that if things go south then he can take someone down with him.
Maybe it didn't start that way and I'm sure Despair would have preferred lynching Hope that day. But their second best scenario was us wasting time on someone who's alignment would be revealed anyways.
Unfortunately I can see Despair trying to make the argument to kill him to blend in. I'm trying not to extrapolate too much from those votes but I'm particularly wary of the people who kept trying to shut down any talk of Czar possibly being bad. (Makai comes to mind.)
Maybe it didn't start that way and I'm sure Despair would have preferred lynching Hope that day. But their second best scenario was us wasting time on someone who's alignment would be revealed anyways.
Unfortunately I can see Despair trying to make the argument to kill him to blend in. I'm trying not to extrapolate too much from those votes but I'm particularly wary of the people who kept trying to shut down any talk of Czar possibly being bad. (Makai comes to mind.)
I bet there is at least one Despair who voted for CzarTim but I think that they would have preferred to lynch Sawneeks. The bandwagon against them started very quickly (I only voted as I thought CzarTim as innocent at the time.) so we should look at who voted.
7. Do not discount Sawneeks being Despair. It is still possible. I believe the better move for Despair on D3 if we did happen to lock on to two Despairs by pure chance, would be to keep Czar alive. 8. I fully believe someone passed Crab on N1. Crab never spoke about it on D3 though to my knowledge. Hell, none of us that were Hope knew he was a PR it seems. But if someone passed Crab, he passed somebody. Who was on his fight club list? Can we figure anything out by his D2 comments or D3 votes? What if it was Sawneeks, and that's why he voted for her? If AB is actually also Despair, it might simply be that he passed Crab.
This doesn't necessarily implicate Sawneeks, but it seems I was correct in my guess that Crab had interacted with Sawneeks on N1 and that might have been way he voted for her.
Czar targeting Crab is almost certainly due to knowledge from fight club. But I do not believe Czar was the one who spotted Crab. This currently leaves us with just Sawneeks as the one who saw Crab.
I think we can actually use the map to figure this out. Lets start by imaging this: Who did Crab target on N1?
In my opinion, Crab would likely have targeted goshujinsama, or himself. In either case, that puts him in the bottom row of the map. Either only in his own room, or a bit to the left.
If Swamped moved left from her room, she would have seen Crab. In this case, in order to see Czar, Czar must have taken the RIGHT path out of his room to franconp rather than the LEFT path. Both are 6 doors away, and I'm not sure if we established which path would be taken in that case.
AB would have went RIGHT from his room to see franconp, and would have met up with Czar at franconp's room. However in order for Pau to then see AB and Czar that means she must have went RIGHT as well. Pau, do you know which route you took N1?
1. Hope has a blocker, and they blocked Czartim who was selected to be Despair's killer last night.
2. Despair targeted either Pau/Ty4on. They are the lovers and their role involves sneaking off at night to a random area in order to make out/have sex. I think Zipped suggested this but I'm not sure. The thing here is that Despair targeted Pau/Ty4on's ROOM. But they weren't in their rooms last night.
I think there is a commuter who hides in the empty room at night every other day. Despair didn't kill last night which means one of three things:
1. Their killer was role blocked,
2. They didn't submit their kill, or
3. They targeted a commuter on his hidden day.
If there IS a commuter, he would be seen by Ty4on because the empty room is directly in front of his. If Ty4on saw the person AND someone else walked by that person's room, we would theoretically find whoever submitted the kill, which, admittedly, would probably just be Czar when you think about it.
Of course this is all based on assumptions (Comutter, no ninja, Ty4on and Pau are Hope, etc.) But it is a thought.
Swamped gave us the plainly obvious reason why nobody died last night - Despair targeted a location and nobody was in it. Duh! I feel bad for not noticing that in Crabs role. Terrabyte ignores this explanation and goes straight for role-blocked. He knows something we dont - Despair targeted an individual last night. CornBurrito thinks Pau and Ty go to a location to avoid death in their own rooms. Terrabyte offers weird mechanical speculation about a role leaving their room. CornBurrito and Terrabyte are Despair and they targeted Pau or Ty last night.
CornBurrito also unironically advocated for sparing CzarTim. wtf?
CzarTim, of course. Shame on anyone who neglects to vote for him. Launchpad is trolling us by giving us extra time today.
Oh yeah, who else is Despair? I think its obvious:
Swamped gave us the plainly obvious reason why nobody died last night - Despair targeted a location and nobody was in it. Duh! I feel bad for not noticing that in Crabs role. Terrabyte ignores this explanation and goes straight for role-blocked. He knows something we dont - Despair targeted an individual last night. CornBurrito thinks Pau and Ty go to a location to avoid death in their own rooms. Terrabyte offers weird mechanical speculation about a role leaving their room. CornBurrito and Terrabyte are Despair and they targeted Pau or Ty last night.
CornBurrito also unironically advocated for sparing CzarTim. wtf?
Sawneeks, Czartim almost certainly went to franconp's room last night. He passed AB and Pau. How exactly did you run into Czartim without also running into Pau and AB?
I believe he ( or someone else ) actually asked this question on Day 1 and the response was whatever path was the shortest is the one that is taken. What this means for Night 1 I don't really know and I don't think Czar or Crab every hinted at seeing each other during the Night so my guess is he went left with Crab being somewhere in the middle.
This is irrelevant considering we do not know if there is a Ninja or not. For all we know you are a Mafia member who can't be seen at Night.
Lynches also shouldn't be based solely on Fight Club but a combination of the map and what people say ( something I have been hypocritical of, I know ) or else all Mafia has to do is sit back and wait for Hope to tear each other apart.
Then when did offering alternative theories become scum tells? There are no more assumptions that Despair targeted an empty room than there is for any other theory.
I went left and in front of CzarTim's room on Night 1 so I would have seen him regardless of what direction he went.
I believe he ( or someone else ) actually asked this question on Day 1 and the response was whatever path was the shortest is the one that is taken. What this means for Night 1 I don't really know and I don't think Czar or Crab every hinted at seeing each other during the Night so my guess is he went left with Crab being somewhere in the middle.
Yes. Unless Czar went to the right I would have been the only one to see Crab move on Night 1. This still leaves Crab possibly being seen by someone else on Night 2 if he moved, but seeing as no one has come forward I will assume he didn't.
You're also assuming that Crab was killed solely because of his movement at Night and not his Day actions. A lot of people here agreed Crab was important to keep alive as he was a strong asset for Hope and it's why he survived Day 2. Don't you think Mafia would also know this? They couldn't go after him on Night 2 because he was probably being protected, meaning they would have wasted a kill. Why they decided a Day kill was a better option I don't know but, like I said above, don't base everything on Fight Club.
Then when did offering alternative theories become scum tells? There are no more assumptions that Despair targeted an empty room than there is for any other theory.
Because you seem to be the only one pushing for the 'empty room' theory, a tactic that feels like it could be genuine or to throw people off and follow a dead-end lead. The only person who can actively confirm this is Ty4on because he is right across from it but I don't believe he ever said anything about seeing someone near his room.
Then when did offering alternative theories become scum tells? There are no more assumptions that Despair targeted an empty room than there is for any other theory.
Yes. Unless Czar went to the right I would have been the only one to see Crab move on Night 1. This still leaves Crab possibly being seen by someone else on Night 2 if he moved, but seeing as no one has come forward I will assume he didn't.
You're also assuming that Crab was killed solely because of his movement at Night and not his Day actions. A lot of people here agreed Crab was important to keep alive as he was a strong asset for Hope and it's why he survived Day 2. Don't you think Mafia would also know this? They couldn't go after him on Night 2 because he was probably being protected, meaning they would have wasted a kill. Why they decided a Day kill was a better option I don't know but, like I said above, don't base everything on Fight Club.
You're right in that it is possible Crab was only seen on N2.
However, I disagree that Czartim would blow his ability on Crab simply because of his Day actions. D3 showed that Crab is just as capable of being deceived as anyone else. There was nothing magical about him except for the fact that he could start a bandwagon. But I think that If I were Despair with an ability like Czartim's, I'd 100% use it to take out a Hope PR. That seems more valuable than simply taking out the town leader.
You're right in that it is possible Crab was only seen on N2.
However, I disagree that Czartim would blow his ability on Crab simply because of his Day actions. D3 showed that Crab is just as capable of being deceived as anyone else. There was nothing magical about him except for the fact that he could start a bandwagon. But I think that If I were Despair with an ability like Czartim's, I'd 100% use it to take out a Hope PR. That seems more valuable than simply taking out the town leader.
Which means he was possibly seen on Night 2 by another member of the Mafia if we are to believe that he was targeted because of his movement. But unless someone who hasn't revealed their movement on Night 2 comes forward we will never be able to confirm nor deny this.
Also town leaders are arguably as important as a power role. They can sway votes, get a discussion going, and even instruct others how to play. That is about as deadly as a role because if they can rally Town to work for their own betterment than scum have a much harder chance of hiding in plain sight.
And before I leave to go do some errands here are my current thoughts on everyone. If I missed someone I apologize.
[m] Rest - Unsure. I had my suspicions but he has grown increasingly quiet and it is hard for me to pin him one way or another.
[ f ] Sawneeks - man idk.
[m] CornBurrito - Hope, but not as convinced as I once was. Very active, willing to point fingers and share any number of ideas. Is willing to talk about and even try to fix his past mistakes, something Im not sure Despair would be so open about. I appreciate the willingness to push a discussion forward but a conviction also goes a long way. I know you plan to change your flip flop votes and this can be an honest endeavor..but I can also see this as a Mafia who has been caught in their fumbles and now plans to change in order to dodge further suspicions..
[m] ViviOggi - I know a lot of suspicion has been placed on you recently but I will admit I have not been following. I dont know about you, nothing jumps to mind other than Splatoon and unless that indicates Mafia I cant say what your alignment is.
[ f ] Pau - Hope. Quiet but with the sudden aggression towards you on Day 3 you reacted in such a way I feel you are Hope aligned. I hope you do post more in the coming days as I feel this is why people pinged you in the first place.
[m] *Splinter - Hasnt been on my radar but after looking back I am willing to believe you are Hope. Discussion, theories, and willing to argue and explain your points ( or to question the points of others ) is something I see as pro town. Also, despite the fact that I agree Tim didnt try to make a kill last night, dont take what he says AT ALL. He could be speaking the truth but we will ignore it because we feel it is false.
[ f ] swamped - Started the game off with a vote and lead a bit of the early game discussion. Things have calmed down since then but I do hope you come around and take up your active stance once more as it got things moving. Yet despite this I can not pin you one way or the other. Youre a gray area.
[m] Kalor - Quiet but insightful, possibly Hope. You fly under the radar every now and again but I agree with most of what you say. I hope you will post your ideas more often.
[m] Zippedpinhead - Might have been a simple slip, but your sudden distrust of Czar is...well...everyone doesnt trust him. Your wording on it is also odd. Your posts for the Day so far are simply rewording what others have already said, letting you blend in while also being active. Despair is likely.
[m] CzarTim -
YOU WERE THE CHOSEN ONE. YOU WERE SUPPOSED TO DESTROY THE MAFIA NOT JOIN THEM.
Ahem, Im down with lynching you today. Getting rid of you would force other Mafia members to move at night and risk being caught. It would also take you away from the other mafia members, who I assume you are still I contact with, and would stop whatever input you might be giving to them.
[m] Makai - I am willing to believe you are Hope. Your explanation does make sense and it is what I ( and a few others ) suspected when you talked about this on Day 3. My belief is maybe 45/55 in favor of you being Hope so I wouldnt be surprised if you flipped Despair with your claim being nothing more than a way to save your own skin from a bad play.
[m] AbsolutBro - 50/50 for you. I can easily see CzarTims claim of you being Hope true because being a member of the Mafia he knew you would be Hope. And seeing as you both saw each other during the Night he also knew you had a power role, making his claim easy. This would lead more credit to his ninja theory as everyone had seen each other yet someone had still died, further leading him to sacrifice himself in order to prove this theory. I find it doubtful that both of you would be Despair, yet this could have been what the Mafia are hoping everyone would fall for.
[m] Barrylocke - Not enough said to make a read. Dont like it.
[m] Terrabyte20xx - Even before Tim comes forward with all his info you mention the map...a lot. I feel like you try and deflect a lot, giving out possibly false ideas. But thats my gut talking.
[m] kingkitty - Day 1 still bothers me and seeing as the past few days have been so crazy no one has really focused much on you. This might be by design or simply an unfortunate set of circumstances but either way your middle-ground posting has left me uncertain. I know you made reads and poosted ideas on Day 3 but I can not seem to remember if they were new ideas or rehashes of others ideas.
[m] goshujinsama - A rocky Day 1 has evolved into one of the more active and insightful members of this game. I highly appreciate your reads and ideas but, after CzarTim, I have cast my doubts upon everyone. This could easily be you trying to make up for an early blunder by following the lead of your Mafia buddies and learning from them by taking a note out of Tims book and being active to make up for suspicion.
[m]Ty4on - Nothing has struck me as Despair about you...yet nothing has felt Hope either. Im willing to trust your claim with Pau because it feels like a weird Despair move and you had clear motivations for revealing, albeit a bit early.
[m]TL21xx - I know you were unable to respond Day 3 due to vacation but I would appreciate hearing from you on this Day. You are one of the quietest members of the game now and it is starting to feel suspicious.
Is there any evidence from any of the PAST 3 days you would like to use against me? Because all I'm seeing is a lot of badgering over an assumption. You assume that I omitted an answer because you think I'm Despair. Just like I assume they targeted a person because I saw no reason for them to target an empty location, mostly because those facilities have been a non-factor this entire game.
If you're going to point fingers, bring more evidence than an argument that can be shot back to you with a mirror.
Is there any evidence from any of the PAST 3 days you would like to use against me? Because all I'm seeing is a lot of badgering over an assumption. You assume that I omitted an answer because you think I'm Despair. Just like I assume they targeted a person because I saw no reason for them to target an empty location, mostly because those facilities have been a non-factor this entire game.
If you're going to point fingers, bring more evidence than an argument that can be shot back to you with a mirror.
Is there any evidence from any of the PAST 3 days you would like to use against me? Because all I'm seeing is a lot of badgering over an assumption. You assume that I omitted an answer because you think I'm Despair. Just like I assume they targeted a person because I saw no reason for them to target an empty location, mostly because those facilities have been a non-factor this entire game.
If you're going to point fingers, bring more evidence than an argument that can be shot back to you with a mirror.
Then go for it. Shoot my argument back at me with a mirror. I want to see how my argument implicates me in any way. What's with you, anyway? You always announce your arguments before you make them.
I know a lot of you guys don't trust me right now, but I am pretty sure I know of a way to find a second Despair... Unfortunately what I'm thinking about takes A LOT of assumptions that may or may not be correct. All I can say is that if I am right I can GUARANTEE a second Despair.
Just get on with it. No reason to leave us in suspense. The argument you're making against me right now ("well, that's just your assumption!") applies to you pretty damn strongly. Your arguments rely on assumptions of the underlying game mechanic. I am pointing out an incredibly scummy flaw in your thinking.
What's with your voting? You have a habit of switching to somebody with no votes in the last hours.
On Day 1, you switch to Zippedinhead, who has no votes. You never vote for him again.
On Day 2, you end the day with no vote. Wtf?
On Day 3, you switch your vote to Rest with 4 minutes on the clock. Wtf? Then you switch your vote to Sawneeks with 1 minute on the clock.
I would vote you so hard right now if CzarTim wasn't 100% confirmed Despair by the moderator.
Because no one has ever even HINTED at their use. They're on the map, but even with all this fight club nonsense, up until Crab's flip no one brought them up. No theories, nothing.
Then go for it. Shoot my argument back at me with a mirror. I want to see how my argument implicates me in any way. What's with you, anyway? You always announce your arguments before you make them.
Just get on with it. No reason to leave us in suspense. The argument you're making against me right now ("well, that's just your assumption!") applies to you pretty damn strongly. Your arguments rely on assumptions of the underlying game mechanic. I am pointing out an incredibly scummy flaw in your thinking.
What's with your voting? You have a habit of switching to somebody with no votes in the last hours.
On Day 1, you switch to Zippedinhead, who has no votes. You never vote for him again.
On Day 2, you end the day with no vote. Wtf?
On Day 3, you switch your vote to Rest with 4 minutes on the clock. Wtf? Then you switch your vote to Sawneeks with 1 minute on the clock.
I would vote you so hard right now if CzarTim wasn't 100% confirmed Despair by the moderator.
I'd actually love it if you did. With Crab gone we don't have a driving force for Despair to sheep behind. Oh how I would revel in looking through the post counts of the people who have barely posted all day and they suddenly get behind one guy's flimsy argument for little reason.
For the record, I really do think you're Hope, Makai.
I hate to say it, but that's what's most damning of all. I just did an advanced search for the keyword "Makai" by user Terrabyte20xx. Almost everyone openly suspected me at some point, but you never did. So how did you know I was Hope? Could it be because I'm not in your Despair chat?
If we're going to work this out we need to pick one option and think it through fully, and not try and do both possibilities at once. For now let's assume he went left and see what that tells us.
If we're going to work this out we need to pick one option and think it through fully, and not try and do both possibilities at once. For now let's assume he went left and see what that tells us.
Scenario 1:
CzarTim goes left and up to Francomp's room in order to kill him. AbsolutBro wanders in to Francomp's room and runs in to CzarTim, both of them seeing each other. I move left, passing in front of CzarTim's room and see him move. Crab moves to the left but not far enough to pass in front of CzarTim's room, although it is enough to where Crab and I pass each other. Pau goes to meet Ty4on and passes both AB and Tim in the halls, but not Crab or myself.
This would mean I was the only one to see Crab move. CzarTim/AB/Pau all saw each other. Pau/Ty4on can not be confirmed by any other outside source besides themselves.
Scanerio 2:
Assuming Czar is still going left, everything would be the same except Crab would be moving to the right. How far right is the question as I saw him but Ty4on/Pau had never mentioned seeing him. This means he didn't move far or the two 'lovers' are lying but, if that were the case, I assume Crab would have called that out on Day 3 and would have pushed them.
CzarTim/Pau/AB still see each other. CzarTim does not see Crab. I will still run in to Crab but depending on where he went he either didn't move far or passed Ty4on/Pau. However, neither hinted at seeing Crab at night and I feel if they had omitted this fact Crab would have pushed on them instead of going after me. "Well, what if they were protecting him?" Ty4on outed his own partner, outing another player doesn't seem far-fetched. That and I believe if Crab had his doubts he would have gone after them regardless.
I'm out so i can't talk much right now, but i just had another disheartening thought. Today, everyone is obliged to vote for CzarTim. That means today's votes are gong to give us no information about voting patterns, along with Day 2 in which there were only two candidates so Despair could blend in easily. That's two days wasted, and finding Despair during the later days will prove challenging because of this. There's nothing we can really do about it except say Well Played Despair.
I'm out so i can't talk much right now, but i just had another disheartening thought. Today, everyone is obliged to vote for CzarTim. That means today's votes are gong to give us no information about voting patterns, along with Day 2 in which there were only two candidates so Despair could blend in easily. That's two days wasted, and finding Despair during the later days will prove challenging because of this. There's nothing we can really do about it except say Well Played Despair.
I haven't thought of that but at least votes aren't our only lead for Despair. I still think we should lynch someone else but obviously I'm in the minority.
Scenario 1:
CzarTim goes left and up to Francomp's room in order to kill him. AbsolutBro wanders in to Francomp's room and runs in to CzarTim, both of them seeing each other. I move left, passing in front of CzarTim's room and see him move. Crab moves to the left but not far enough to pass in front of CzarTim's room, although it is enough to where Crab and I pass each other. Pau goes to meet Ty4on and passes both AB and Tim in the halls, but not Crab or myself.
This would mean I was the only one to see Crab move. CzarTim/AB/Pau all saw each other. Pau/Ty4on can not be confirmed by any other outside source besides themselves.
Scanerio 2:
Assuming Czar is still going left, everything would be the same except Crab would be moving to the right. How far right is the question as I saw him but Ty4on/Pau had never mentioned seeing him. This means he didn't move far or the two 'lovers' are lying but, if that were the case, I assume Crab would have called that out on Day 3 and would have pushed them.
CzarTim/Pau/AB still see each other. CzarTim does not see Crab. I will still run in to Crab but depending on where he went he either didn't move far or passed Ty4on/Pau. However, neither hinted at seeing Crab at night and I feel if they had omitted this fact Crab would have pushed on them instead of going after me. "Well, what if they were protecting him?" Ty4on outed his own partner, outing another player doesn't seem far-fetched. That and I believe if Crab had his doubts he would have gone after them regardless.
I guess feeling bad isn't actually putting any kibosh on my analysis after all...
I think the bolded makes more sense. If we assume Pau went right, there are only a few places that Pau and Crab could have gone and not seen each other. Since Pau hasn't mentioned Crab, I don't think it's likely. But why would we assume that Crab didn't go far enough to see CzarTim? Was that just conjecture from CornBurrito?, because I don't remember anything that implied that.
I'm out so i can't talk much right now, but i just had another disheartening thought. Today, everyone is obliged to vote for CzarTim. That means today's votes are gong to give us no information about voting patterns, along with Day 2 in which there were only two candidates so Despair could blend in easily. That's two days wasted, and finding Despair during the later days will prove challenging because of this. There's nothing we can really do about it except say Well Played Despair.
Mafia can still make a night kill without CzarTim. If we lynch Sawneeks we can know if CzarTime saw Crab or not, assuming that Crab didn't move very far.
I hate to say it, but that's what's most damning of all. I just did an advanced search for the keyword "Makai" by user Terrabyte20xx. Almost everyone openly suspected me at some point, but you never did. So how did you know I was Hope? Could it be because I'm not in your Despair chat?
