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Danganronpa Mafia |OT| Grin and Bear It

Rest

Rest

All these years later I still chuckle at what a fucking moron that guy is.
As per the rules, I mean that in the nicest possible way, of course.
 
S

Sawneeks

Banned
Rest said:
I guess feeling bad isn't actually putting any kibosh on my analysis after all...

I think the bolded makes more sense. If we assume Pau went right, there are only a few places that Pau and Crab could have gone and not seen each other. Since Pau hasn't mentioned Crab, I don't think it's likely. But why would we assume that Crab didn't go far enough to see CzarTim? Was that just conjecture from CornBurrito?, because I don't remember anything that implied that.
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Pau said she went to Ty4on's room, meaning she only moved to the very far right of the lower hallway and since everyone takes the shortest route to their destination she could have only gone right. Crab could have easily stayed around or near his room and never moved farther than the end of the hallway.

And yes, my assumption of CzarTim seeing, or in this case NOT seeing Crab is solely based on the fact they never once hinted at it. But this is all based on theory and with Crab dead and our only other person in this mess is that mafia scum Czar we have no way of knowing if they saw one another. They could have seen each other, I don't know. We will never know.

Rest said:
Mafia can still make a night kill without CzarTim. If we lynch Sawneeks we can know if CzarTime saw Crab or not, assuming that Crab didn't move very far.
Click to expand...

And now you lost me. How does lynching me prove CzarTim saw Crab?
 
C

CornBurrito

Member
Swamped said:
I'm out so i can't talk much right now, but i just had another disheartening thought. Today, everyone is obliged to vote for CzarTim. That means today's votes are gong to give us no information about voting patterns, along with Day 2 in which there were only two candidates so Despair could blend in easily. That's two days wasted, and finding Despair during the later days will prove challenging because of this. There's nothing we can really do about it except say Well Played Despair.
Click to expand...

Which is partly why I suggested NOT voting for Czartim today. Or at least not until the end.
 
S

Sawneeks

Banned
CornBurrito said:
Which is partly why I suggested NOT voting for Czartim today. Or at least not until the end.
Click to expand...

The only problem with this is this would still leave Czar able to kill during the night. He would also still be on the Mafia-only forum and be giving them advice/suggestions/etc. and, while we don't know how much of an influence he has over there, the best thing we can do is silence him from helping them further.
 
C

CornBurrito

Member
Rest said:
I guess feeling bad isn't actually putting any kibosh on my analysis after all...

I think the bolded makes more sense. If we assume Pau went right, there are only a few places that Pau and Crab could have gone and not seen each other. Since Pau hasn't mentioned Crab, I don't think it's likely. But why would we assume that Crab didn't go far enough to see CzarTim? Was that just conjecture from CornBurrito?, because I don't remember anything that implied that.
Click to expand...

I think that Crab on N1 would either have used his ability on himself, or goshujinsama. He did not believe Makai's role claim. The only other role claimer was goshujinsama. I don't think he would ever use the ability on a random person on N1.
 
C

CornBurrito

Member
Sawneeks said:
The only problem with this is this would still leave Czar able to kill during the night. He would also still be on the Mafia-only forum and be giving them advice/suggestions/etc. and, while we don't know how much of an influence he has over there, the best thing we can do is silence him from helping them further.
Click to expand...

We could have had our cake and eaten it too. We could have bought into my "lets vote for Splinter or someone else on my likely to be Despair list" idea, and then all just changed to Czartim in like... the last 30 minutes or so.
 
S

Sawneeks

Banned
CornBurrito said:
We could have had our cake and eaten it too. We could have bought into my "lets vote for Splinter or someone else on my likely to be Despair list" idea, and then all just changed to Czartim in like... the last 30 minutes or so.
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I already posted my reasons for voting CzarTim yesterday but if we had voted someone else out that would have left Tim to other mischief up until he was discovered. This still doesn't mean we should let him live past today.

Hmmm, I just had a thought. What if we were getting too close to finding another Mafia member, an important one at that? Perhaps that's why CzarTim wished to sacrifice himself? Divert attention away from them, use his power to eliminate someone else knowing that he would survive to the next Day and in the ensuing chaos allow his Mafia buddy to slip back into the crowd. It's a weird play but entirely possible, I will have to go back and read Day 2 and Day 3.
 
C

CornBurrito

Member
Sawneeks said:
I already posted my reasons for voting CzarTim yesterday but if we had voted someone else out that would have left Tim to other mischief up until he was discovered. This still doesn't mean we should let him live past today.
Click to expand...

Ok let me reword what I just said.

We could have PRETENDED that we were going to vote someone else out. Made a bunch of votes for other people, like Terrabyte or Splinter. Then when the Day 4 phase had 30 minutes or maybe an hour left, SWITCH all our votes to Czartim.
 
C

CornBurrito

Member
Sawneeks said:
Hmmm, I just had a thought. What if we were getting too close to finding another Mafia member, an important one at that? Perhaps that's why CzarTim wished to sacrifice himself? Divert attention away from them, use his power to eliminate someone else knowing that he would survive to the next Day and in the ensuing chaos allow his Mafia buddy to slip back into the crowd. It's a weird play but entirely possible, I will have to go back and read Day 2 and Day 3.
Click to expand...

That's hilarious given that the only other person we were close to locking in on was you. Day 2 was a bust with most of us focusing on Crab and Kgtrep. Day 3 was a bust with most of us focusing on mechanics. We weren't homing in on anyone. Or at least that's what I believe.

I do encourage you to review Day 2 and Day 3 though and see if you can gather evidence for your hypothesis.
 
T

TL21xx

Banned
Sawneeks said:
I already posted my reasons for voting CzarTim yesterday but if we had voted someone else out that would have left Tim to other mischief up until he was discovered. This still doesn't mean we should let him live past today.

Hmmm, I just had a thought. What if we were getting too close to finding another Mafia member, an important one at that? Perhaps that's why CzarTim wished to sacrifice himself? Divert attention away from them, use his power to eliminate someone else knowing that he would survive to the next Day and in the ensuing chaos allow his Mafia buddy to slip back into the crowd. It's a weird play but entirely possible, I will have to go back and read Day 2 and Day 3.
Click to expand...

Very plausible, and a good play as well. Very curious who it could be, since the voting data is pretty spread out with no non-contextual pattern.
 
M

Makai

Member
Terrabyte20xx said:
No, I'm not going to lie to save my skin.
Click to expand...
So you're not my buddy, you haven't been seen in the hallways and you know that I'm Hope. So...

312781_fe94_625x1000.jpg


Bullshit!
 
S

Sawneeks

Banned
CornBurrito said:
Ok let me reword what I just said.

We could have PRETENDED that we were going to vote someone else out. Made a bunch of votes for other people, like Terrabyte or Splinter. Then when the Day 4 phase had 30 minutes or maybe an hour left, SWITCH all our votes to Czartim.
Click to expand...

As funny as that sudden bandwagon would have been it looks like CzarTim's ability can activate even after a day has ended so it still would have turned out the same way. :(

CornBurrito said:
That's hilarious given that the only other person we were close to locking in on was you. Day 2 was a bust with most of us focusing on Crab and Kgtrep. Day 3 was a bust with most of us focusing on mechanics. We weren't homing in on anyone. Or at least that's what I believe.

I do encourage you to review Day 2 and Day 3 though and see if you can gather evidence for your hypothesis.
Click to expand...

I'm talking before CzarTim's big old 'here is how fight club works' and 'vote for me to prove the ninja' stuff. The bandwagon on me wasn't until the very end.

This is also just a theory so I don't know if it even has merit, it could be complete BS.

TL21xx said:
Very plausible, and a good play as well. Very curious who it could be, since the voting data is pretty spread out with no non-contextual pattern.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the votes themselves haven't said as much as I had hoped. It's why I'm also looking at Day 2 to see who was threatening who and if a majority leaned one way or another.
 
S

*Splinter

Member
Sawneeks said:
I already posted my reasons for voting CzarTim yesterday but if we had voted someone else out that would have left Tim to other mischief up until he was discovered. This still doesn't mean we should let him live past today.

Hmmm, I just had a thought. What if we were getting too close to finding another Mafia member, an important one at that? Perhaps that's why CzarTim wished to sacrifice himself? Divert attention away from them, use his power to eliminate someone else knowing that he would survive to the next Day and in the ensuing chaos allow his Mafia buddy to slip back into the crowd. It's a weird play but entirely possible, I will have to go back and read Day 2 and Day 3.
Click to expand...
Good point, I thought we must be missing something about Tim's play. I can't think of much in Day 2 outside of the duel nonsense... And Day 3 hadn't gotten very far before Tim's claim... BarryLocke? AbsoluteBro? Maybe Zipped?
 
S

*Splinter

Member
To elaborate:
Barry was on a lot of people's radars before he went "too" inactive, AbsoluteBro I think was also under some suspicion and caught a lot of flak in Crab's essays, Zipped I started to mention and I think Corn and someone else (Vivi?) joined in but I'm not sure if that had the widespread suspicion the other two did.
 
M

Makai

Member
Terrabyte20xx said:
Would you even believed me if I had said yes? You realize that if I were actually Despair, I would have done just that, right?
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Look, I'm going to cut you some slack and give you a chance to change your answer without consequence. I can appreciate the fact that my buddy wants another chance to foil a night kill. But I need to know if you're my buddy or an invisible cop. Tell me right now and don't lie.
 
T

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Makai said:
Look, I'm going to cut you some slack and give you a chance to change your answer without consequence. I can appreciate the fact that my buddy wants another chance to foil a night kill. But I need to know if you're my buddy or an invisible cop. Tell me right now and don't lie.
Click to expand...
I am neither, and it would be suicide to say otherwise..
 
T

Ty4on

Member
I feel we should focus a bit on motives. Czar's "claim" was very risky so why would he do that? One is he was pressured knowing people had seen him. AB's last post on D2 (1987) made it seem like AB was certain he knew the killer. Czar knew Pau also moved and had been seen by AB regardless of what direction she headed so maybe he thought AB knew more because of his power role.
Czar was the first person to explain how rule breakers saw other rule breakers and with it he introduced the idea of a ninja. It is possible Despair basically have no ninja and Czar wanted to get hope to focus less on those seen at night. Instead they have other tricks up their sleeve like what Czar pulled and maybe a heavily restricted ninja.

The big question though is why Czar didn't fight being lynched and why he protected Saw. Just before the end of the day Saw said this:
Sawneeks said:
Sleep well Crab. Please don't have any more night adventures without me.
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Sawneeks kinda role claimed Crab. I believe this is why Crab was killed which does make Saw look a lot more like hope. Now why would Czar protect her?
CzarTim said:
saw can you claim? if it's an important role, everyone switch their vote to me.
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None of the roles that had been outed were very important. By that I mean no cop, doctor, switcher, blocker, etc. Czar is also being pro-active. If it's clear the next day Czar should have known about her role it looks bad and if she role claims two minutes before it's even more certain Czar would be lynched.

Czar was basically dead when Saw claimed Crab's role so it could be a trick. Saw just has to be really important for Czar to protect her because helping lynch a Despair would really make Czar look town.
 
C

CzarTim

Member
Since crab isn't here (because I killed him lol) let me fill the hole he left behind:

Grumble grumble grumble grumble grumble

You all are idiots. Having to play with you causes me physical pain. Everyone should play exactly like me (ie have zero fun). Why do you all even bother reading posts not written by me.

Grumble grumble grumble grumble grumble
 
S

Swamped

Banned
I still think that Despair messed up the first night, they didn't realize that every rulebreaker was basically a watcher. Before the first night nobody knew how the Maruader's Map worked, Launchpad said so himself. Since CzarTim's role was pretty much expendable (a one-shot that allows you to kill someone but outs you as Despair), he probably decided to use it defending one of the other Despair PRs who were out and about. I was leaning towards it being AB more (sleepwalker claim is pretty loosey-goosey, it gives Despair an excuse to wander all over the map), but that Sawneeks bandwagon by a known Hope is making me think again. Also, her posts have never struck me as super pro-town, although she did poke CornBurrito a bit during Day 3, I'll give her that. Also wanted to re-iterate that she said she would tell us more about fight club which she did, but a Despair PR would have access to that same info.

Day 5, I'll probably vote for one of these three people: TB, AB or Sawneeks.
 
S

Sawneeks

Banned
*Splinter said:
Good point, I thought we must be missing something about Tim's play. I can't think of much in Day 2 outside of the duel nonsense... And Day 3 hadn't gotten very far before Tim's claim... BarryLocke? AbsoluteBro? Maybe Zipped?
Click to expand...

Starting about halfway through Day 2 I read up until Czar's 'role reveal' on Day 3 and noted any major pushes towards certain people. There wasn't a whole lot...but here is what I wrote down, in uncut note form.

Day 2:
Terrabyte focused on by *Splinter
A focus on AbsolutBro by a handful
Lot of makai talk, not pushes.
'The two new folks are quiet'
People are unsure of Zipped/Vivi
Crab believes AbsolutBro to be Despair. ( 1905 )
Also calls out Barrylocke ( 1924 )

Day 3:
Makai/Terra push for Goshu
Rest doesn't like terrabyte, cites fluff
Splinter doesn't trust AB/Zipped, relaxes on terra
CzarTim wishes to vote Barrylocke, believes to be scummy and claims others thought him scummy as well
Corn willing to jump an a AB or Barry or Tl21 vote..
Splinter jumps on Zipped
Swamped on Makai
I jump on Barry but vote TL21
CzarTim sets up his 'play' at ( 2054 ). furthers it with ( 2078 ). ( 2084 ) explains Fight Club, his role, and introduces the 'Ninja Theory'.
AB votes Pau and accidentaly outs her having a role.
Click to expand...

It's rough and doesn't have many posts but that's because I'm not trying to advocate or make a point yet, I'm simply sharing what I noted.

The only really major pushes I saw were for AbsolutBro, Barrylocke, and Zippedpinhead. Terrabyte had a strong focus by *Splinter on Day 2 and it was echoed by Rest but on Day 3 it falls off. AbsolutBro started off as a small rumbling in Day 2 ( quite, not saying much, fence-sitting, etc. ) and gained some early-ish traction Day 3. Tl21xx also received some attention for being quiet. Barrylocke is the weird one, with most people indifferent or a shrug when it came to him on Day 2 but when CzarTim casts his vote towards Barry a few people jump on before he ultimately abandons his position for a 'sacrifice self vote'.

I also want to say I am finding Zippedpinhead increasingly suspicious. Many of his Day 2 and early Day 3 claims are simply reworded stances of the more common opinion and don't offer up anything. Very much a 'go with the flow of the crowd' kind of actions.

Ty4on said:
-snip-
Czar was basically dead when Saw claimed Crab's role so it could be a trick. Saw just has to be really important for Czar to protect her because helping lynch a Despair would really make Czar look town.
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This still doesn't explain why CzarTim would kamikaze himself this early. He was literally asking to be killed yesterday, saying it would prove his point and it should 'ease tensions'. He was doing this way before anyone had even voted for me and, at the time of his 'reveal' people were either indifferent towards or believed I was Hope, there was no pressure on me at all. So why make himself the sacrificial Mafia to save me if I was fine for 90% of the day?
 
S

Sawneeks

Banned
Swamped said:
I still think that Despair messed up the first night, they didn't realize that every rulebreaker was basically a watcher. Before the first night nobody knew how the Maruader's Map worked, Launchpad said so himself. Since CzarTim's role was pretty much expendable (a one-shot that allows you to kill someone but outs you as Despair), he probably decided to use it defending one of the other Despair PRs who were out and about. I was leaning towards it being AB more (sleepwalker claim is pretty loosey-goosey, it gives Despair an excuse to wander all over the map), but that Sawneeks bandwagon by a known Hope is making me think again. Also, her posts have never struck me as super pro-town, although she did poke CornBurrito a bit during Day 3, I'll give her that. Also wanted to re-iterate that she said she would tell us more about fight club which she did, but a Despair PR would have access to that same info.

Day 5, I'll probably vote for one of these three people: TB, AB or Sawneeks.
Click to expand...

Even though we should take care of CzarTim today that shouldn't stop you from questioning others. What do you find suspicious about TB, AB, or myself? Is there a specific post or action that makes you feel this way? Start to pursue your leads now instead of waiting as it gives you more time to find evidence to prove your point.
 
T

Ty4on

Member
Sawneeks said:
This still doesn't explain why CzarTim would kamikaze himself this early. He was literally asking to be killed yesterday, saying it would prove his point and it should 'ease tensions'. He was doing this way before anyone had even voted for me and, at the time of his 'reveal' people were either indifferent towards or believed I was Hope, there was no pressure on me at all. So why make himself the sacrificial Mafia to save me if I was fine for 90% of the day?
Click to expand...

He couldn't counter that claim and was probably hoping that being so hope he even wanted to be lynched for info made town uncomfortable voting for him similar to what seemingly happened D2.
 
S

Sawneeks

Banned
Ty4on said:
He couldn't counter that claim and was probably hoping that being so hope he even wanted to be lynched for info made town uncomfortable voting for him similar to what seemingly happened D2.
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Possibly. But before the end of Day 3 ( hell, even before his fake role 'reveal' on Day 3 ) nearly everyone trust CzarTim. He did not need to make that fake claim to seem 'more town', many people already saw him as a true-blue Hope player and had no reason to doubt him. So why make the fake claim? He put himself on the line with it when he had zero reason to and it's why I think he was covering for someone who was starting to receive a little too much attention on Day 2/early Day 3.
 
C

CornBurrito

Member
Sawneeks said:
Possibly. But before the end of Day 3 ( hell, even before his fake role 'reveal' on Day 3 ) nearly everyone trust CzarTim. He did not need to make that fake claim to seem 'more town', many people already saw him as a true-blue Hope player and had no reason to doubt him. So why make the fake claim? He put himself on the line with it when he had zero reason to and it's why I think he was covering for someone who was starting to receive a little too much attention on Day 2/early Day 3.
Click to expand...

Perhaps he noted ABs line break post and made a preemptive move.
 
S

Swamped

Banned
CornBurrito said:
Perhaps he noted ABs line break post and made a preemptive move.
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I don't think he would have put a risky gambit into play for a riddle that most of us didn't even get. I don't recall anyone bringing attention to that post after AB made it.

The possibility still exists that AB and CzarTim threw 'breadcrumbs' during day 2 so that they could put this gambit in place Day 3 and attempt to eliminate any suspicions the other Hope PRs had due to their actions N1. In fact, kgtrep's move was probably very beneficial for them as they essentially had an entire day phase to plan things, and if things DID end up going south, the CzarTim could always activate his ability.
 
C

CzarTim

Member
I know you guys won't believe me until you see the mafia thread (and you shouldn't) but honestly I was just bored and the game was on life support so I thought it'd be funny to make the game crazy and hoped people would start playing more. Losing a fun game > winning a boring game.
 
S

Swamped

Banned
Sawneeks said:
Even though we should take care of CzarTim today that shouldn't stop you from questioning others. What do you find suspicious about TB, AB, or myself? Is there a specific post or action that makes you feel this way? Start to pursue your leads now instead of waiting as it gives you more time to find evidence to prove your point.
Click to expand...

Good idea, will do. I do like how you've become much more active and pokey now that a lot of attention has shifted to you...
 
T

Ty4on

Member
Sawneeks said:
Possibly. But before the end of Day 3 ( hell, even before his fake role 'reveal' on Day 3 ) nearly everyone trust CzarTim. He did not need to make that fake claim to seem 'more town', many people already saw him as a true-blue Hope player and had no reason to doubt him. So why make the fake claim? He put himself on the line with it when he had zero reason to and it's why I think he was covering for someone who was starting to receive a little too much attention on Day 2/early Day 3.
Click to expand...

That's why I brought it up. It's a big question mark for me as well and I could only speculate.

Everybody surviving last night is also strange.
 
C

CornBurrito

Member
Swamped said:
I don't think he would have put a risky gambit into play for a riddle that most of us didn't even get. I don't recall anyone bringing attention to that post after AB made it.

The possibility still exists that AB and CzarTim threw 'breadcrumbs' during day 2 so that they could put this gambit in place Day 3 and attempt to eliminate any suspicions the other Hope PRs had due to their actions N1. In fact, kgtrep's move was probably very beneficial for them as they essentially had an entire day phase to plan things, and if things DID end up going south, the CzarTim could always activate his ability.
Click to expand...

You might be right.

Here's the sequence of events that kind of set Czar's plan off in motion:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175583961&postcount=2054

Czar uses my questioning of his Barrymore vote to say he strongly suspects AB is Hope.

I asked Czar to explain his reasoning. Goshu added on to this.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175584090&postcount=2055
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175673175&postcount=2076

Czar uses this chance to start Operation Fight Club

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175674189&postcount=2078
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175674552&postcount=2081
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175675182&postcount=2084

I do find Makai's post interesting in this exchange. Because no offense, but "hey you brought up fight club whenever the map was mentioned" seems unusually perceptive.

AB then devises a plan to test Czar. By voting for Pau

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175676133&postcount=2092


The whole event seems too elaborate for something to have just been done spur of the moment. It was me and goshujinsama who kind of gave Czar the ability to implement it. Actually he pretty much used my questioning of his vote for Barrymore rather than AB in order to set the whole thing off.

I think I agree with your conclusion that it wasn't done because of AB's broken line post.
 
C

CornBurrito

Member
CzarTim said:
I know you guys won't believe me until you see the mafia thread (and you shouldn't) but honestly I was just bored and the game was on life support so I thought it'd be funny to make the game crazy and hoped people would start playing more. Losing a fun game > winning a boring game.
Click to expand...

You know.... I might actually believe this. If true though, it isn't the worst of plans. Had you not been eliminated you'd have been sitting in a very strong position. And if we choose to believe that you did the whole thing for the lulz, that means we can't necessarily use voting patterns or D3 behavior to find co-conspirators. Because there might not be any.
 
S

Sawneeks

Banned
Swamped said:
Good idea, will do. I do like how you've become much more active and pokey now that a lot of attention has shifted to you...
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I blame/owe it to Crab. I knew I wasn't posting much but I was nervous to jump in as it's my first full Mafia game and since everyone seemed to know what they were doing. But with Crab's bandwagon + my role being out I've basically just said 'fuck it, i'm going to die anyway' and here we are.

Ty4on said:
That's why I brought it up. It's a big question mark for me as well and I could only speculate.

Everybody surviving last night is also strange.
Click to expand...

Thing is we probably won't know until the game is over/other Mafia are found it. It sucks but we can't do much about it. :(

Seriously! I was shocked to find out everyone was alive. It could have been a number of reasons as to why no one died but who knows. Just more speculation, really.

CzarTim said:
I know you guys won't believe me until you see the mafia thread (and you shouldn't) but honestly I was just bored and the game was on life support so I thought it'd be funny to make the game crazy and hoped people would start playing more. Losing a fun game > winning a boring game.
Click to expand...

As much as I shouldn't I kind of believe you on this. Things have been slowly quieting since Day 2 with only a really small handful of people being really talkative and your whole move did kick things up a bit. But it doesn't look like it stuck, we still haven't really heard from half of the players yet.

i'm still mad you're a liar though. :'(
 
K

kingkitty

Member
I have some lingering thoughts that I'll type up soon but I just wanna chime in quickly that if you see a post from a "CzarTim" on this page, just quickly scroll over it, close your eyes, sing "nanana", and shake your head back and forth.
 
S

sandalphon

Member
CornBurrito said:
Fine. I agree that Czar may be the way to go.
Goshu I strongly disagree that Kalor is suspicious. He and Vivi sealed Czars fate.
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CornBurrito, my vote is currently on Terrabyte20xx. As for the other names I have picked for my suspicious list, I can only tell you that my assessments are based off my personal evaluation. Clearly, you have a different scale from which you emerge with different suspects. This is good, we need differing perspectives so that we may cover each other’s blind spots.

Nevertheless, this post of yours took my notice and I have to say that I was rather amused to have been picked as more “iffy” than others. Despite my steady opinion and pressure on CzarTim on Day 3, it seems that somehow I have come up lacking by your standards.

Let me elaborate further how I came upon my resolution that CzarTim was Despair.

It was with his opening gambit, in which he declared that he could clear AbsolutBro that he also introduced the notion of the ninja mechanic in our current game. Should you take the pains to reread the entirety of Day 3, you would come upon a realisation that he was pushing the ninja idea very eagerly. Almost with every other post, he would bolster the untrackable killer suggestion.

At first, I did not discount the possibility and even now I am never one to close my mind to the likelihood of an element at play, however, there were two thoughts that were raised in my mind. The first one was the age-old proverb, “Beware of a gift-bearing horse”, and indeed, would you not describe that it was tantalizingly neat, the manner in which CzarTim came with his gift-wrapped present. He came forward seemingly out of his own design, risking his own life, and proffering a solution that would explain away the worries of his fellow players’ doubts.

Which is how I arrived at the second thought. In all murder mystery stories, there will come upon the detective a time where he/she would have to ask the question: “Who benefits most from this?”

It was then that my conviction crystallized. CzarTim, bearing gifts and solutions, was simultaneously also the one that would profit the most from this gambit.

I am not a high post count player and you probably can guess by now that I prefer to take things slow and to compose my thoughts carefully. So, if my contributions thus far have not convinced you of my alignment then I would encourage you to engage me further. Is there anything else I can cover for you?

Otherwise, I believe I have attempted to be as useful as a Hope member can be.

Moving forwards, and building upon what we have covered so far, I urge you to peruse Day 3 for any posters who was almost as eager as CzarTim to push the ninja idea ahead. There are some who has been misled, no doubt, but there are others who were already in my list of suspect who did not help their cause one bit by contributing to the idea that CzarTim was so keen to sell to Hope.

Just some food for thought.

I do have to say that rereading Day 3 has been an interesting source of knowledge and a personal source of entertainment. Let’s hope Day 4 will turn up good leads and that Hope can build on strength upon strength.

I will change my vote to CzarTim before the end of Day 4. At the moment, I am perusing Makai’s engagement with Terrabyte20xx.
 
K

kingkitty

Member
Here's some posts of interests that I collected over a few days while procrastinating over something important. It covers Day 1 and little bits of Day 2. I think it's interesting to look back at Czar's behavior during these two days. I also included some other people (like me), because I felt like it.

In the end this is probably more of use for me, which I intend to use (along with some stuff on Day 3 posts) while I'm writing up my "Player A vs Player B" analysis (which will come laterish) but I thought I should share anyways. Maybe you'll find something interesting that you didn't notice before.

I'll have to relook over other players I didn't cover here like, zipped + terrabyte + some other dudes.

kingkitty:
Day 1:
Votes for ViviOggi
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173927427&postcount=506

Changes vote to goshu (after goshu hints at power role)
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173931426&postcount=512

Gets voted on by ViviviOggi
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173931918&postcount=515

Then kingkitty voted for Rest, too lazy to find link

CzarTim
Day 1:
Threw minor heat at cornburrito
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173842614&postcount=360

Votes for kingkitty
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173924631&postcount=501

Refuses to move vote off kingkitty
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173930859&postcount=511

golden czartim comment on kingkitty ("ugh king come on man")
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173934339&postcount=525

after Crab doesn't agree to vote for kingkitty, CzarTim changes vote to makai
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173941002&postcount=541

doesn't want to vote for kingkitty, "too easy" of a target
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174056937&postcount=668

threw some heat at Rest
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174140700&postcount=734

throwing heat on Makai
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174234135&postcount=819
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174234261&postcount=820

votes for Rest
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174334245&postcount=1045

Day 2
Has a problem with Makai's role claim
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174781149&postcount=1311

Outwardly defends AB (which might be due to the fact he was trying to fit the look of a person who investigated AB on night 1)
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174801339&postcount=1402

throws more shade at Makai
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174813909&postcount=1431

has "scum read" on Rest, Makai. Barrylocke as well (thinks he's too quiet)
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174935862&postcount=1698

splinter
Day 1
Splinter uses winnie the pooh to question kingkitty's logic
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173932347&postcount=517

Czartim is described by splinter as someone "hard to read"
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173967312&postcount=582

Splinter not vibing towards this "gambler's fallacy" which would have beneffited scum CzarTim
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174055848&postcount=667

throwing heat at Terabytteee
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174139314&postcount=726
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174147186&postcount=741

Day 2:
slight suspicions towards teraterabyte, and kalor (sorta)
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174869964&postcount=1614

AB
Day 1:
Absolutbro votes kingkitty
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173896518&postcount=455

Unvotes kingkitty
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174024720&postcount=651

votes Makai
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174336549&postcount=1104

Ty4on
Day 1
kingkitty "too crazy" to be mafia
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174336864&postcount=1114

Voted for Rest (just like his supposed lover Pau)...too lazy to find link

Day 2
throws a little suspicion towards AB
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175086627&postcount=1789

Pau
Day 1:
Doesn't follow kingkitty's logic, votes Makai
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173986818&postcount=595

votes Rest
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174334827&postcount=1065

blaehrng

swamped
Day 1:
First vote, was against absolutebro
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173788359&postcount=298

Throws slight heat on ViviOggi
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173858151&postcount=390

Vote against Sawneeks
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173876919&postcount=418

Voted against goushu (a mistake?)
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173909187&postcount=490

Retracts goshu vote
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173909892&postcount=492

votes against sawneeks again
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173945328&postcount=553

votes for Hagi...too lazy to find the link

Day 2
mistrusts Makai role claim
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175153329&postcount=1864

sawneeks
Day 1:
Voted for Rest
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173886741&postcount=444

Holds off voting for kingkitty, votes hagi
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173969298&postcount=585

rather not vote for kingkitty, votes for Terrabyte
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174120654&postcount=701

unvotes terrabyte
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174147444&postcount=743

goes for Makai
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174287313&postcount=851

votes Hagi
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174336480&postcount=1103

I probably made mistakes here and there, etc.
 
S

*Splinter

Member
Thanks for the reference links kitty. If anyone is interested in stuff like this I have post numbers for every vote made (as well as a few other useful things) in D1 and most of D2. It's in spreadsheet form so I'll share it next time I'm at my pc
 
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