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donny2112 · Mar 1, 2009

We're predicting for five games that I'm reasonably sure will be in the Top 10.

Games/Format:

[360 Left 4 Dead]
[360 Street Fighter IV]
[PS3 Killzone 2]
[PS3 Street Fighter IV]
[WII Wii Fit]
[Total SW $ in millions]

Code:

Good                        Bad
[360 Left 4 Dead] 200K      [360 Left 4 Dead] 200 thousand
[360 Left 4 Dead] 200,000   [360 Left 4 Dead] 200.000
[360 Left 4 Dead] 200000    [360 Left 4 Dead] - 200,000

The Hardware Prediction thread is here.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EDT on Sunday, March 8th. (Due to Daylight Savings Time starting next Sunday, the clock in the link is based off of UTC time, but the remaining time until predictions will be closed is correct.) Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: February 1 - February 28 (4 weeks, January was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: March 19th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Code:

                          Dec 2008    Jan 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead]             629K        243K
[WII Wii Fit]                 999K        777K
[Total SW $ in millions]    2,750         677

Days available in tracking period (new releases):
360/PS3 Street Fighter IV - 12 days
PS3 Killzone 2 - 2 days

Keikoku · Mar 1, 2009

No Halo Wars ?

EDIT : ok it's getting released later in US, my bad.

Jonsoncao · Mar 1, 2009

Keikoku said:
No Halo Wars is just hilarious.

Halo Wars released in March....

PSGames · Mar 1, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 200k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 400k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 550k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 300k
[WII Wii Fit] 500k

MGS4 did what 900k last year right? I don't think Killzone 2 will reach that for some reason.

Jonsoncao · Mar 1, 2009

PSGames said:
[360 Left 4 Dead] 200k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 400k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 750k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 300k
[WII Wii Fit] 500k

MGS4 did what 900k last year right? I don't think Killzone 2 will reach that for some reason.

MGS4 did 770k in its first month excluding buddles

dolemite · Mar 1, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 150k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 450k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 300k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 250k
[WII Wii Fit] 700k

CiSTM · Mar 1, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 120k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 390k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 800k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 480k
[WII Wii Fit] 600k

gkryhewy · Mar 1, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 220k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 625k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 350k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 300k
[WII Wii Fit] 675k

PSGames · Mar 1, 2009

Jonsoncao said:
MGS4 did 770k in its first month excluding buddles

Thanks, KZ2 estimate revised.

schuelma · Mar 1, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 120k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 600k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 600k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 350k
[WII Wii Fit] 650k

Son of Godzilla · Mar 1, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 210k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 375k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 350k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 250k
[WII Wii Fit] 725k
[Total SW $ in millions] 1200

thaOwner · Mar 1, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 120k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 550k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 300k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 450k
[WII Wii Fit] 550k

Hazaro · Mar 1, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 90k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 450k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 480k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 365k
[WII Wii Fit] 565k

inner-G · Mar 1, 2009

I never do these, but what the hell

[360 Left 4 Dead] 75k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 535k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 465k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 602k
[WII Wii Fit] 495k

PS3: SFIV>KZ2

boontje · Mar 1, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 120k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 370k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 280k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 275k
[WII Wii Fit] 650k
[Total SW $ in millions] 700

Barrett2 · Mar 1, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 120,000
[360 Street Fighter IV] 350,000
[PS3 Killzone 2] 400,000
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 350,000
[WII Wii Fit] 400,000

mjc · Mar 1, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 150k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 350k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 200k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 250k
[WII Wii Fit] 600k

WaltJay · Mar 1, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 155k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 575k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 295k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 325k
[WII Wii Fit] 700k

timetokill · Mar 1, 2009

Chances seem pretty high that at least one of these games will not be in the Top 10 this month...

pseudocaesar · Mar 2, 2009

I dont see L4D still charting top ten, and I also think the PS3 SF4 will outsell the 360, even though this is US. That said I wont bother making numbers up cos how the hell will I guess.

rikitikitik · Mar 2, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 85k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 615k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 435k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 385k
[WII Wii Fit] 560k

[Total SW $ in millions] 513

billy.sea · Mar 2, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 110K
[360 Street Fighter IV] 480K
[PS3 Killzone 2] 240K
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 290K
[WII Wii Fit] 450K

I don't really see L4D staying in the top 10 though.

Sleeker · Mar 2, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 90K
[360 Street Fighter IV] 480K
[PS3 Killzone 2] 250K
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 300K
[WII Wii Fit] 420K

Flakster99 · Mar 2, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 90K
[360 Street Fighter IV] 345K
[PS3 Killzone 2] 490K
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 370K
[WII Wii Fit] 550K

somuchwater · Mar 2, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 75K
[360 Street Fighter IV] 350K
[PS3 Killzone 2] 850K
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 400K
[WII Wii Fit] 650K

Aaron Strife · Mar 2, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 110K
[360 Street Fighter IV] 280K
[PS3 Killzone 2] 350K
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 200K
[WII Wii Fit] 550K

L4D will drop from the top 10 but still be in the top 20 somewhereish.

jrricky · Mar 2, 2009

I have high expectations for Killzone and people should too. It better blow me away.:lol

Gadfly · Mar 2, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 100k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 300k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 890k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 360k
[WII Wii Fit] 600k

Tormentoso · Mar 2, 2009

Jonsoncao said:
Halo Wars released in March....

I saw the add on TV it should sell on the Halo name alone a few millions,by the way and a little OT buT about Halo wars i wonder why developer feel the need to show just CGs for their games,i mean aren't graphics advance enough to show something in just real time.?

I think is a personal insult to the PS3 or xbox 360 to show nothing but a CG on an add

boiled goose · Mar 2, 2009

wow... lots of variation in KZ2....

from 250k to 900k..
i guess we'll see..

.

Guled · Mar 2, 2009

kz2 only has like 2 days on the NDP right, i bet the march # will be bigger

[360 Street Fighter IV] 600K
[PS3 Killzone 2]300K
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 400K

donny2112 · Mar 2, 2009

Aaron Strife said:
L4D will drop from the top 10 but still be in the top 20 somewhereish.

1) If you think 360 CoD:WaW would be in the Top 10, note that L4D had a stronger showing in January and a much lesser drop from December.
2) L4D wasn't an instant mega hit like CoD and Gears, so it is consequently likely to show better legs.
3) There's not another shooter on the 360 to take the attention away at the moment.
4) L4D was my most iffy selection, but I still think it has a very good chance to make the Top 10.

Just my thoughts on the matter.

akilshohen · Mar 2, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 100k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 700k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 600k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 500k
[WII Wii Fit] 500k

Arch · Mar 2, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 175k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 450k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 400k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 230k
[WII Wii Fit] 650k

Accident · Mar 2, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 130k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 420k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 500k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 300k
[WII Wii Fit] 450k
[Total SW $ in millions] 770

starship · Mar 2, 2009

Mario Kart Wii was a much safer choice than L4D imo.

donny2112 · Mar 2, 2009

starship said:
Mario Kart Wii was a much safer choice than L4D imo.

So is Wii Play. I just figured to try something a little less safe (and hopefully more fun to predict for) this time around.

jj984jj · Mar 2, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 125K
[360 Street Fighter IV] 275K
[PS3 Killzone 2] 575K
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 215K
[WII Wii Fit] 615K

No faith in Star Ocean?

apujanata · Mar 4, 2009

Donny2112,

Friendly reminder that you haven't calculated Jan 2009 S/W Ranking.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=14986417&postcount=34

botticus · Mar 4, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 140K
[360 Street Fighter IV] 325K
[PS3 Killzone 2] 475K
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 275K
[WII Wii Fit] 650K
[Total SW $ in millions] 735

h3ro · Mar 4, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 100K
[360 Street Fighter IV] 300K
[PS3 Killzone 2] 330K
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 210K
[WII Wii Fit] 700K

andy_lhc · Mar 4, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 160k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 400k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 390k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 280k
[WII Wii Fit] 550k
[Total SW $ in millions] 700

donny2112 · Mar 5, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 160K
[360 Street Fighter IV] 220K
[PS3 Killzone 2] 380K
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 180K
[WII Wii Fit] 680K
[Total SW $ in millions] 740

Amir0x · Mar 5, 2009

Just out of curiosity, why would L4D 360 be in the top ten still? I am just curious since I don't follow sales, but I know the game came out a while ago now. Does it have legs in NPD so far or something, or some special re-release I missed?

donny2112 · Mar 5, 2009

Amir0x said:
Just out of curiosity, why would L4D 360 be in the top ten still?

Weekly averages:

360 World at War
Nov-08 - 353K
Dec-08 - 266K
Jan-09 - 59K

360 Left 4 Dead
Nov-08 - 103K
Dec-08 - 126K
Jan-09 - 61K

Part of the reasoning is that if you would expect 360 CoD:World at War to make the Top 10, then Left 4 Dead is showing better post-holiday results and being a new IP, would probably have relatively better legs than an existing hit series. Therefore, it should be in the Top 10, as well. Also other than World at War, there isn't another shooter (that I know of) to take away the attention from L4D.

It's still a calculated risk, but I figured it'd be better than predicting for Mario Kart Wii again.

Son of Godzilla · Mar 5, 2009

There's like 7-8 games competing for last four slots, so who knows. L4D, Fear 2, Fiddy Cent, Guitar Hero, any DS games, CoD, that Sonic collection thing. It'll probably show up.

Also other than World at War, there isn't another shooter (that I know of) to take away the attention from L4D.

Fear 2 should do respectable numbers, it got quite a marketing push and had a good demo. I don't know what to think about 50, but apparently it's a quality Gears knockoff.

Hammer24 · Mar 6, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 125K
[360 Street Fighter IV] 390K
[PS3 Killzone 2] 380K
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 190K
[WII Wii Fit] 420K
[Total SW $ in millions] 750

gokieks · Mar 6, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 175000
[360 Street Fighter IV] 400000
[PS3 Killzone 2] 450000
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 300000
[WII Wii Fit] 700000
[Total SW $ in millions] 1080

CiSTM · Mar 6, 2009

Amir0x said:
Just out of curiosity, why would L4D 360 be in the top ten still? I am just curious since I don't follow sales, but I know the game came out a while ago now. Does it have legs in NPD so far or something, or some special re-release I missed?

It's been in top 10 since launch and I suspect it will be in top 10 even in february.

2009 January

1. Wii Fit (Wii) 777k
2. Wii Play W/ Remote (Wii) 415k
3. Mario Kart W/Wheel (Wii) 292k
4. Left 4 Dead (360) 243k

2008 December

1. Wii Play w/ remote - Wii Nintendo 1.46 million
2. Call of Duty: World at War - Xbox 360 Activision 1.33 million*
3. Wii Fit w/ balance board Wii Nintendo 999K
4. Mario Kart Wii w/ wheel Wii Nintendo 979K
5. Guitar Hero: World Tour - Wii Activision 850K*
6. Gears of War 2 - Xbox 360 Microsoft 745K*
7. Left 4 Dead - Xbox 360 Electronic Arts 629K

November

1. X360: Gears of War 2 - 1.56 Million
2. X360: Call of Duty: World At War - 1.41 Million
3. Wii Play W/ Remote - 796k
4. Wii Fit - 697k
5. Wii: Mario Kart - 637k
6. PS3: Call of Duty: World At War - 597k
7. Wii: Guitar Hero: World Tour - 475k
8. X360: Left 4 Dead - 410k

AranhaHunter · Mar 6, 2009

[360 Left 4 Dead] 135k
[360 Street Fighter IV] 500k
[PS3 Killzone 2] 400k
[PS3 Street Fighter IV] 300k
[WII Wii Fit] 700k

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