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June/1H 2009 NPD Article (Gamasutra)

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
My monthly column for Gamasutra on the latest videogame industry figures from NPD is now up. This month is a bit more of a 1H09 look than precisely a June 2009 look.
Direct link to Gamasutra story about June 2009 NPD data.

A couple of things that may be of interest:

  • Software unit sales for PS3, Wii, Xbox 360 from 1H06 to 1H09. (Wii flat, Xbox 360 and PS3 each up 3 million from 1H08.)
  • YTD Top 5 sellers on PS3, Wii, Xbox 360. (LEGO Star Wars sneaks in.)
  • Measuring decline in music game sales. (Two months without Rock Band or Guitar Hero in top 20. Whoa.)
  • 1H09 hardware sales in context. (NDSi has strongest first quarter sales of any launch?)
  • Estimated annual sales. (Going for $20-$21 billion in 2009.)

One image for fun:
software-unit-sales-by-platform.png


Ok, I lied. Here's another:
ytd-top-5-wii.png


As always, constructive criticism is welcome. If I made an error, kindly let me know and I'll get it fixed ASAP.

I may be unavailable for much of the day, so silence won't mean I'm ignoring you. I'm just trying to be a good dad on vacation!

However, my editors will be monitoring this thread, I suspect, so changes may get made without me replying directly here. They'll punish me later for the mistakes, I assure you.

Thanks, guys.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December and all of 2007
November 2007
October 2007
 
Great article. Those Lego Star Wars wii sales are incredible!
I know the game has dropped in price but those are still incredible legs for a third party title on a Nintendo system.
 
jibblypop said:
Great article. Those Lego Star Wars wii sales are incredible!
I know the game has dropped in price but those are still incredible legs for a third party title on a Nintendo system.
Click to expand...

I own it on the 360, it's a great game that deserves the sales.
 
Great article so far.
I'm up to page 2 and just noticed this paragraph:

At least some of this drop can be attributed to falling sales of more expensive packages like Guitar Hero and Rock Band bundles. Sales of Nintendo's Wii Fit with the included Balance Board, retailing for $90, are also weakening.
Click to expand...
Wii Fit released in May 2008 and only sold 1.06m copies in the first half of 2008, whereas it sold almost 2m more copies (actually 3.057m copies) in the first half of 2009. So the bold part is clearly incorrect.
 
Finally! :)

page 2 said:
Given that software on the Wii, Xbox 360, and PlayStation 3 is priced significantly higher than the software on the other platforms (Nintendo DS and DSi, PlayStation Portable, and PSP), ...
Click to expand...
waaaaaitaminute. What?
 
starship: Adjusted language there. Thanks!

Psychotext: You're welcome! And I fixed that typo.

CTLance: Was supposed to be PS2, but I suspect you knew that. :lol
 
Interesting that KZ2 sold more than RE5... Very interesting.

Even more interesting that even though Sony coommands only 1-2 spots in the top 10 each month, they manage to have software sales rise by 3 million 1/2 YOY.
 
Finished skim-reading through the article, now for a second readthrough to absorb more info. Good read as always, jvm.
 
Guitar Hero took a substantial hit, but it's Rock Band that took the harshest blow. A 67% drop in sales is very painful, particularly for a loss leading concept like RB.
 
ZombieMaster said:
Looking at the top 5 Wii sellers. Clearly, Xbox 360, PS3 are not targeting the same audiance.
Click to expand...

I think you are wrong. I think Microsoft and Sony are both trying very hard to get those consumers but so far failing to do so. To think they are not targeting that humongous wii audience really makes zero sense.

I do have a feeling that Microsoft might start making some headway with the audience though. (just a suspicion)
 
jvm said:
One image for fun:
software-unit-sales-by-platform.png
Click to expand...
Can you shed some light on how these estimates were reached? There was some brief dispute in the NPD thread about a quoted attach rate "in June" and what that meant. Something like that, or something else?
 
great article, i was looken for it last week

does all this downtrend have to do with that fact that the Wii isn't selling gangbusters like it was?
 
bcn-ron said:
Can you shed some light on how these estimates were reached? There was some brief dispute in the NPD thread about a quoted attach rate "in June" and what that meant. Something like that, or something else?
Click to expand...
Sure. I have a big spreadsheet of public tie ratio statements and estimates (e.g. from Nintendo investor relation graphs). The numbers stated by MS were pretty obviously LTD tie ratios.
 
So, I'm curious. Replies to these threads are down. Is it lack of info? The info there is boring? The leak this month took away much interest? The conversation in the main thread is still robust?

I didn't bash Wii games hard enough? Joke!

Regardless, thanks for all the kind comments and helpful corrections.
 
jvm said:
So, I'm curious. Replies to these threads are down. Is it lack of info? The info there is boring? The leak this month took away much interest? The conversation in the main thread is still robust?

I didn't bash Wii games hard enough? Joke!

Regardless, thanks for all the kind comments and helpful corrections.
Click to expand...

There haven't been any great fanboy wars type happenings in the console arena lately I think.

I'll just say that I've been following these threads for a long time now and have always enjoyed your articles, please keep them up.
 
If I was to guess, I'd say that it's because there's nothing really that shocking or controversial over at the article. Probably would have been a bit more in the way of argument if those top 5 games for each platform this year had numbers. :)
 
Thanks for the feedback. Here's a question for anyone following along.

If I were to ask to follow-up on a question raised in a previous month, attempting to get some data from NPD, what would you want to see?

For example, go back to Madden 09 in August and consider LTD data. July data will be out, Madden 10 will be on sale, and we could look at how the various versions did overall.

Or Wii third party games like Madworld, et al and see if they've shown any longer sales trends. Maybe include GTA:CTW in there for good measure.

I'm sure there are other things.

Only one idea could be looked at. Anything of particular interest?

Psychotext: Giving away the numbers publicly is pretty much out of the question. I gave you everything I was able to publish.
 
If more replies is what you want, Wii third-party sales is the only answer. ;p

Well, that, and it'll be useful in the future to have as much info on this generation's strangest trend (market leader shunned) for future reference.
 
jvm said:
So, I'm curious. Replies to these threads are down. Is it lack of info? The info there is boring? The leak this month took away much interest? The conversation in the main thread is still robust?

I didn't bash Wii games hard enough? Joke!

Regardless, thanks for all the kind comments and helpful corrections.
Click to expand...

No, this is great stuff. Keep it up. Like someone else said, though, this month is just...kind of...expected/boring in general (to me, anyway).

I don't know if you're looking for suggestions or if this is in your capability, but I'd be interested in how certain games of genres stack up with others. For example, when FFXIII releases, how will it compare to other jRPGs like Lost Odyssey. It's also nice when you provide numbers for games that we want to know about that are not listed in the top 10/20, which these analyses have done. (Once you gave the number for Tales of Vesperia sales for August, and that was cool, because lord knows we'd never know that otherwise.)

I can't imagine a better analysis of this stuff, though. Don't stress.
 
jvm said:
So, I'm curious. Replies to these threads are down. Is it lack of info? The info there is boring? The leak this month took away much interest? The conversation in the main thread is still robust?

I didn't bash Wii games hard enough? Joke!

Regardless, thanks for all the kind comments and helpful corrections.
Click to expand...

Always love the analyses from these threads so keep them coming. I'd love to be able to apply the same level of scrutiny to European data through GfK to get a better global picture, where Sony and Nintendo still occupy a greater market share.
 
jvm said:
Psychotext: Giving away the numbers publicly is pretty much out of the question. I gave you everything I was able to publish.
Click to expand...
No doubt, but as I said... that's the sort of stuff that would have caused arguments. :lol
 
jvm said:
Thanks for the feedback. Here's a question for anyone following along.

If I were to ask to follow-up on a question raised in a previous month, attempting to get some data from NPD, what would you want to see?

For example, go back to Madden 09 in August and consider LTD data. July data will be out, Madden 10 will be on sale, and we could look at how the various versions did overall.

Or Wii third party games like Madworld, et al and see if they've shown any longer sales trends. Maybe include GTA:CTW in there for good measure.

I'm sure there are other things.

Only one idea could be looked at. Anything of particular interest?

Psychotext: Giving away the numbers publicly is pretty much out of the question. I gave you everything I was able to publish.
Click to expand...

Thank you for the information, especially on the rhythm genre. Shame there isn't as much information on PC sales these days.

Would it be possible to find out what was the average price of a multiple SKU system for whatever period of time? As in, what is the mean of the differently priced 360 systems in the month of July. It was $290 last time I heard about this.
 
So the interesting thing is that the PS3 has almost exactly half of the install base of the 360 and also has exactly half the amount of games sold in this last half. In other words, PS3 owners are just as likely to buy as many games per console as 360 owners.

So people, please stop this nonsense that PS3 owners don't buy games. :)
 
Johann said:
Would it be possible to find out what was the average price of a multiple SKU system for whatever period of time? As in, what is the mean of the differently priced 360 systems in the month of July. It was $290 last time I heard about this.
Click to expand...
I believe it is $275, or thereabouts currently. The LTD ASP for the Xbox 360 was $375 (?) as of July 2008. (I'd have to go check the data again.)

The ASP for the PS3 is in the neighborhood of $410.

For the Wii... :D

The PSP was down to $170, I think, recently. It had been much higher, around $190, for a period in 2007-2008, when I had its value.

The NDS and NDSi are similarly easy: $130 and $170, not much variation there, as far as I know.
 
jvm said:
So, I'm curious. Replies to these threads are down. Is it lack of info? The info there is boring? The leak this month took away much interest? The conversation in the main thread is still robust?

I didn't bash Wii games hard enough? Joke!

Regardless, thanks for all the kind comments and helpful corrections.
Click to expand...

Less mistakes. ;)

Light release schedule for 2009 to date.
 
I read them every month, jvm. I guess, entering the 5 holiday period of this generation, we sort of know what the consoles are at this point. As far as looking back on Madden, that sounds like a good idea.

Personally, where I once loved reading NPD threads, the boring predictability and lack of more information carries over into your analysis. As long as they hold on to the good stuff, there is onlyh so much you can do.
 
Nothing wrong with the article, jvm. But yeah, the leak and the whole "set in stone" deal are slowing things down a bit. It's just not fun to argue anymore when even the most diehard trolls can't really find an angle to attack that hasn't been abused a hundred thousand times already.

I'm voting for Wii 3rd party numbers. Mainly because I'm a Nintendo guy at heart. Plus they're the market leaders, and I guess theirs are the most useful numbers with the whole new audience thing going on.
...
Maybe a comparison to the Sony crowd with new numbers/percentages/etc? That would surely whip up some sort of heated discussion. Nintendo fans are still kinda new at the first place, as are Sony fans at the third, so that would maximise the possibility of sore spots being hit, regardless of outcome. Sure, we're not here for the lulz, but you asked how to revive these topics, and that's my honest-to-god answer to that.
 
Sleeker said:
there isnt much to argue about anymore.
things seem to be set in stone
Click to expand...

This. I read through these and say to myself "yup". I really enjoy them though even if I'm not posting in the thread I'm always reading them.

This gen is just set sales wise on how it's going to be and while stable... it's kind of boring sometimes.
 
elrechazao said:
Yeah, even the "wait for" meme is dead as both a fake troll response and the few diehards who really believed it.
Click to expand...

I think you're severely underestimating the former's ability to overuse memes and the latter's delusional faith in all things Sony...
 
jibblypop said:
I think you are wrong. I think Microsoft and Sony are both trying very hard to get those consumers but so far failing to do so. To think they are not targeting that humongous wii audience really makes zero sense.

I do have a feeling that Microsoft might start making some headway with the audience though. (just a suspicion)
Click to expand...

I don't know, Microsoft has been trying for a while now to get the wii audience without much luck. Natal could do some good there but if it's too expensive (aka over $100), don't count on it.
 
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