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August 2009 NPD Article (Gamasutra)

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Hey, good things to write about Sony this month. It's been a long time coming. Here's the article Gamasutra put up this morning.
Direct link to Gamasutra story about August 2009 NPD data.
A few things of interest perhaps:
  • HW ASP for PS3, Xbox 360 in Aug 09 (est. 65% PS3 units at $300 in Aug 09)
  • Trends in YTD SW ASP and SW units through Aug 08, 09
  • Some SW figures: Madworld LTD 123K, Wii CoD:WaW 750K
Sorry I didn't have more for you this time.
ps3-asp-data.png


As always, I'm up for corrections, comments, etc. Please don't take a lack of immediate response personally -- I may simply not be here. My overlordseditors will be watching the thread, so changes may happen without a direct response from me.

Thanks, guys.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December and all of 2007
November 2007
October 2007
 
M

markatisu

Member
schuelma said:
I can't believe CoD Wii sold 750K. Wow.
Click to expand...

It had to have some long legs, the only times it appeared on the chart make up ~500-550k of that

MadWorld did better than I thought after its dismal month, thats what 2x its opening?
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
So Cod WaW Wii will outsell Killzone 2 by the end of the year?

Why do we only get leaks for LTDs of Nintendo games BTW?
 
D

donny2112

Member
Sho_Nuff82 said:
Why do we only get leaks for LTDs of Nintendo games BTW?
Click to expand...

Are you talking about jvm? He recently did an article about new IPs vs. existing IPs on PS3 that included some "updates" for PS3 games in the form of ranges. I also seem to recall MGS4 and Resistance updates from him, too.

Edit:
As for the article, nice use of 360's price drop impact to predict how the PS3 price drop will impact its sales (i.e. baseline bump at least until next May and 2-2.5m in Q4 for PS3). :) As for Madden data, the two years before what the chart shows were both under 2m in August's launch month, so this year's performance could be a return to past sales for Madden. *shrugs*
 
T

Tiktaalik

Member
schuelma said:
I can't believe CoD Wii sold 750K. Wow.
Click to expand...

"I've heard a lot of great things about this CoD game. I only have a Wii though. Oh look there it is on the shelf!"

*buys for the Wii*


Now I don't know how actually good CoD on the Wii was, whether Activision will be able to get repeat business from these folks.
 
S

Sadist

Member
Well, MadWorld sold better than God Hand, that's at least something.

CoD WaW selling 750k doesn't surprise me, it was a good game I believe.
 
S

Sipowicz

Banned
although i didn't particularly enjoy cod wii i'm glad it did well

a genuine fps on the system is nice to see in an age where other publishers are going cheap and casual. it could have been a lightgun game or a party game or something
 
M

markatisu

Member
Sadist said:
Well, MadWorld sold better than God Hand, that's at least something.
Click to expand...

Just like No More Heroes sold better than any Suda game before

They might not light up the charts but some of these niche producers/developers are probably pretty happy with the performance.

Wonder what will happen if Bayonetta does not sell at least 120k
 
C

Chris Remo

Member
Sho_Nuff82 said:
So Cod WaW Wii will outsell Killzone 2 by the end of the year?

Why do we only get leaks for LTDs of Nintendo games BTW?
Click to expand...
Just to clarify, that data isn't leaked, it's provided directly by NPD. If they're more commonly provided for Wii games, it might just be because Matt requests those more because that whole market is less well understood.
 
H

Htown

STOP SHITTING ON MY MOTHER'S HEADSTONE
Tiktaalik said:
Now I don't know how actually good CoD on the Wii was, whether Activision will be able to get repeat business from these folks.
Click to expand...
It was pretty solid, but from what I hear it was missing some stuff from the HD versions. I don't think Modern Warfare will do as well, seeing as it's a port of the PREVIOUS game from the series instead of the current one, and seeing as the screenshots released so far look substantially worse than how WAW looked.
 
D

DeaconKnowledge

Member
Sadist said:
Well, MadWorld sold better than God Hand, that's at least something.

CoD WaW selling 750k doesn't surprise me, it was a good game I believe.
Click to expand...

It was....it is. Graphics aren't the best, but it's the best FPS on the Wii (yes, still).
 
K

Kifimbo

Member
Great analysis, as usual. Same for Rlan XBLA/PSN analyses.

The « Activision Pursues Mature Wii Support » is kinda misleading (for a lack of a better word). Call of Duty: World at War is like the only Mature title from Activision on the Wii. Maybe with Marvel Ultimate Alliance 2. For every « mature » title, there are 5 « non-mature » like Science Papa, Hidden Mysteries Titanic, Big League Sports, iCarly, Hot Wheels, etc.
 
S

Sipowicz

Banned
DeaconKnowledge said:
It was....it is. Graphics aren't the best, but it's the best FPS on the Wii (yes, still).
Click to expand...


i've only played 3 (metroid,conduit and call of duty) but i think metroid is by far the best

conduit was the worst. bleurgh
 
M

MightyHedgehog

Member
donny2112 said:
As for the article, nice use of 360's price drop impact to predict how the PS3 price drop will impact its sales (i.e. baseline bump at least until next May and 2-2.5m in Q4 for PS3). :)
Click to expand...
Isn't that going to be significantly dampened by the fact that things are looking considerably lower in sales this year than last?
As for Madden data, the two years before what the chart shows were both under 2m in August's launch month, so this year's performance could be a return to past sales for Madden. *shrugs*
Click to expand...
Also, the start of the NFL season is almost a week later this year (September 10th) than last (September 4th), so the ad push for the new NFL season started a little later, too. And the 2007 season started on September 6th. I think that the timing of Madden's release and the start of the ramp up for the real NFL season greatly impacts the sales of the game as it hypes fans up and wakes 'em up if they aren't already pumped up for it.
 
S

squicken

Member
Great work jvm. The last few months were very stale b/c the info you were getting was so worthless. The LtD of CoD Wii and the ASPs was a great scoop.
 
D

DeaconKnowledge

Member
Sipowicz said:
i've only played 3 (metroid,conduit and call of duty) but i think metroid is by far the best

conduit was the worst. bleurgh
Click to expand...


Not to turn this into a whole thing, but when I talk about FPS' on the Wii I don't count Metroid. I strictly count competitive FPS'.
 
S

Sadist

Member
markatisu said:
Just like No More Heroes sold better than any Suda game before

They might not light up the charts but some of these niche producers/developers are probably pretty happy with the performance.

Wonder what will happen if Bayonetta does not sell at least 120k
Click to expand...
I'm fully aware of this, I wasn't sarcastic enough. I actually wanted to post "comparable games didn't sell on the PS2" and post some other remarks, but I realised that would be a childish thing to do and realize now that the comment I posted doesn't sound sarcastic at all.

DeaconKnowledge said:
It was....it is. Graphics aren't the best, but it's the best FPS on the Wii (yes, still).
Click to expand...
Yeah, I for no apparant reason I used the past tense. Be damned Dutch for being my first language.
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Thanks for all the comments. Looks like the errors were pretty few or no one bothered to find/report them. :lol
 
A

apujanata

Member
jvm said:
Thanks for all the comments. Looks like the errors were pretty few or no one bothered to find/report them. :lol
Click to expand...

Not really an error :
The issue isn't just moving hardware for hardware's sake, but the fact that hardware sales drive software. According Mr. Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities, Wii software sales were down in August 2009 compared to August 2008 and he expects them to remain down year-on-year through November unless Nintendo drops the price of the Wii.
Click to expand...
I think the bolded part is a faulty logic. People buy H/W to play S/W, not the other way around. Strong S/W (Halo 3, MK Wii etc) push H/W, not the other way around.

If you meant that price cut drive S/W sales, you didn't analyze and provide proof of them in this article.

Regarding Pachter's comment, about Wii S/W sales drop, I wonder how big the drop is, and what is the drop for X360 S/W and PS3 S/W, to determine whether it is only Wii that drop (which means Wii is no longer attractive), or all of them drop (which means depression/economy crisis is the one to blame).

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=25241

About Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition and Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles LTD that some one asked you about in the comment section, my hunch is that RE4 is above CoDWaW LTD (which means 750K+ LTD), while RE:UC LTD is significantly less than 750K.

Your idea of providing range of sales instead of exact figure is very good. Hope you can get NPD to divulge them, and I can confirm whether my hunch is correct or not. :D

I also wanted to know whether Conduit's LTD is above or below Madworld's LTD.
 
S

Sipowicz

Banned
DeaconKnowledge said:
Not to turn this into a whole thing, but when I talk about FPS' on the Wii I don't count Metroid. I strictly count competitive FPS'.
Click to expand...

i dont really play wii games online, although i played mario kart a few times

i do think there's a place for single player shooters on consoles, and furthermore the wii is far better suited for them than online shooters

stuff like metroid, half life, deus ex etc are really good games regardles of the fact they're single player
 
D

donny2112

Member
apujanata said:
I think the bolded part is a faulty logic. People buy H/W to play S/W, not the other way around. Strong S/W (Halo 3, MK Wii etc) push H/W, not the other way around.
Click to expand...

It's referring to the fact that hardware sales now drive software sales later. The problem is that with several months of poor hardware sales, it portends later months with depressed software sales due to having less console owners on the market. In the immediate sense, yes, software can drive hardware, but in the overall sense, hardware sales now drive software sales later.
 
D

DeaconKnowledge

Member
Sipowicz said:
i dont really play wii games online, although i played mario kart a few times

i do think there's a place for single player shooters on consoles, and furthermore the wii is far better suited for them than online shooters

stuff like metroid, half life, deus ex etc are really good games regardles of the fact they're single player
Click to expand...


I'm not disputing the quality of Metroid. It's just that when the talk turns to "FPS", it's usually really "competitive multiplayer FPS" not "First person adventure/shooter"
 
L

legend166

Member
That average PS3 price is interesting. Does that mean the price drop has already had a big effect and we won't see such a rise in September as some are expecting?
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
legend166 said:
That average PS3 price is interesting. Does that mean the price drop has already had a big effect and we won't see such a rise in September as some are expecting?
Click to expand...
I think the surge could continue through September. My feeling right now is 300K - 350K, but we'll see how that looks in a month. :lol
 
S

Son of Godzilla

Banned
legend166 said:
That average PS3 price is interesting. Does that mean the price drop has already had a big effect and we won't see such a rise in September as some are expecting?
Click to expand...
It's a bit hard to tell because of the Uncharted box, but if 2/3 of the PS3s were sold at $300, that puts it at 140k. Meaning 70k sold before the price cut. If there were 2 weeks of $400 and 2 weeks of $300 (I'm not sure, I think the price cut was only like 10 days not 2 weeks) that $400 is at 70k, and let's assume an even split of about 35k a week. Slim sold 3x that in week one, putting it at about 105k.

That's a great week, but nothing compared to the other launches.
 
A

Anony

Member
markatisu said:
Just like No More Heroes sold better than any Suda game before

They might not light up the charts but some of these niche producers/developers are probably pretty happy with the performance.

Wonder what will happen if Bayonetta does not sell at least 120k
Click to expand...

it will sell good, horny male teenagers will buy it
 
O

onipex

Member
Thank you, I always enjoy reading these.


This is clearly not in the same class as some of Nintendo's own first-party game (none of which are M-rated), nor is it in the same class as sales of the Xbox 360 for PlayStation 3 versions. Still, it is a very successful M-rated game on a system whose audience some consider ambivalent or even hostile to such content
Click to expand...


I think this is something Nintendo could fix if they really cared. Even a T rated first party FPS ( not FPA) could improve things a bit. They pushed just about every other genre in their own way. It's not like Nintendo never let a studio make an FPS before.
 
vanguardian1

vanguardian1

poor, homeless and tasteless
onipex said:
I think this is something Nintendo could fix if they really cared. Even a T rated first party FPS ( not FPA) could improve things a bit. They pushed just about every other genre in their own way. It's not like Nintendo never let a studio make an FPS before.
Click to expand...

The problem is that Nintendo's business attitude and development style have become the anti-thesis of "traditional western gaming". Retro is the only studio they have capable of putting out such a product, and even then we won't even have an idea of their current project until at least E3'10.
 
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