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June 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 14th

Sony are expecting to sell more PS4S this year but earn less money compared to last. That says price cut to me.

But if there is no price cut then what would limit their revenue? Expansion costs for PS Vue? Third party deals?

There's going to be a price cut. It's just a matter of how much. Sony can't expect to sell more without a price cut this year seeing as sales have slowed down compared to last year in NA. So unless WW sales are picking up the slack (and going beyond really), it's hard to imagine a scenario in which PS4 sells more PS4s then last year at the same price point.
 
The fact the Taken King PS4 system bundle has not been priced and isn't up for pre order at major retailers is a pretty big flag for a price drop coming
 
Isn't that September though? I thought popular opinion was that price drop would be announced at PGW.

Who knows. Its suspect as hell though. Amazon and GameStop are usually on top of that shit instantly.

Neither has it listed in the US. Very, very strange. Also exceedingly strange Sony themselves haven't announced price.
 
Who knows. Its suspect as hell though. Amazon and GameStop are usually on top of that shit instantly.

Neither has it listed in the US. Very, very strange. Also exceedingly strange Sony themselves haven't announced price.

Interesting. That does seem to point towards a price drop.

Hmm.. wonder if it'll be before MGSV or not then. Would turn into a pretty massive month for Sony if it turns out to be the case.
 

TomShoe

Banned
Interesting. That does seem to point towards a price drop.

Hmm.. wonder if it'll be before MGSV or not then. Would turn into a pretty massive month for Sony if it turns out to be the case.

October 28th is the first day of PGW, so that tells me that's the date. As long as it's in time for Black Friday, the announcement will be huge.
 

Welfare

Member
A price cut for MGSV would be nice. If they bring that limited console over to the US I'll get my first PS4.
 
It's possible that Sony announce a price drop around the GS conference / Expo at the end of August. Wouldn't be the first time news has broke around that time. There could be a partnership between the two with Sony performing so much stronger in the US this gen compared to last.\

Also possible of course there is no price cut, just speculating on best time's to announce a cut before The Taken King PS4 drops.
 

Javin98

Banned
Personally, I see a price drop being announced at TGS. Perfect timing since it's at the end of September, so they can easily secure October, which is the month the XB1 will most likely win because of Halo 5 if Sony does nothing.
 
Personally, I see a price drop being announced at TGS. Perfect timing since it's at the end of September, so they can easily secure October, which is the month the XB1 will most likely win because of Halo 5 if Sony does nothing.

Sony's TGS presser are always early September, since they like holding their shows a week or two in advance of TGS.
 

Javin98

Banned
Sony's TGS presser are always early September, since they like holding their shows a week or two in advance of TGS.

Oh, still a great time for a price drop IMO. Announcing it at PGW will almost certainly give the win to the XB1 in October since Halo 5 will be launching that month and the price drop of the PS4 will only be effective for a few days in October. It will undoubtedly give the holidays a bigger boost, though.
 

gtj1092

Member
Isn't that September though? I thought popular opinion was that price drop would be announced at PGW.

I've always maintained a September drop with the launch of MGSV. It's the one release this year that is going to sell well WW. Plus verendus mentioned that Sony is going to make changes to help MGS sales that month that will increase hardware.


Also the best way to announce a price cut is a commercial and ads. Don't know why people are trying to tie it to a conference. People watching a conference most likely already own the console. They will drop the price I feel as soon as all the old units are out of the channel so they don't take a loss on them. Then have pretty hefty Q2 and Q3 shipments.
 

Abdiel

Member
I've always maintained a September drop with the launch of MGSV. It's the one release this year that is going to sell well WW. Plus verendus mentioned that Sony is going to make changes to help MGS sales that month that will increase hardware.


Also the best way to announce a price cut is a commercial and ads. Don't know why people are trying to tie it to a conference. People watching a conference most likely already own the console. They will drop the price I feel as soon as all the old units are out of the channel so they don't take a loss on them. Then have pretty hefty Q2 and Q3 shipments.

I sometimes wish I was at the right level to know that sort of information. As it is, we don't usually find out about that stuff until right before big announcements are made, to prepare the stores for updated pricing and expected rushes. But if Sony does do a price drop, I don't think they'd do a low key one.

Dropping to $299 would fall in line with most of their previous price drops, as well as strategic positioning for the forward momentum. Like I said, some are definitely swayed by price, but combining price, successful advertising with the biggest titles and larger base for existing customers could be a crazy proposition. It'd make the holidays a retail bloodbath. Both exciting to see, but also miserable to field the chaos.
 
I sometimes wish I was at the right level to know that sort of information.

Retailers can't know that information too early or else they'd change their own order or pricing behavior (unless that's what a 1st party would want, in which case they would be told).

Pubs are in the same boat. They often find out about a console price drop along with the rest of the public.
 

Aces&Eights

Member
I'm not sure what the historical tend is but I suspect sales decline during the summer months. There are hardly any games released during that time. This fall is shaping up to be a massive juggernaut and I predict sales for each system double over the previous months.

No way in hell I'm staking my account on it, though.
 
I'm not sure what the historical tend is but I suspect sales decline during the summer months. There are hardly any games released during that time

Well that is kinda hard to say right now since it's not declining for PS4 since June had AK Bundle, July, August & September have some PS4 exclusive games + MGSV & Destiny Bundles.

I don't see this Summer as part of the historical tend = No summer decline.

I did see the decline in Spring though.
 

idlewild_

Member
Sony's TGS presser are always early September, since they like holding their shows a week or two in advance of TGS.

Which is also right before Taken King launches. I doubt they will want to hold off until then to announce the price of the bundle though, so maybe they would announce the price drop and refund the difference on the bundles; edit - assuming they announce a price drop at the conference.
 
Well that is kinda hard to say right now since it's not declining for PS4 since June had AK Bundle, July, August & September have some PS4 exclusive games + MGSV & Destiny Bundles.

I don't see this Summer as part of the historical tend = No summer decline.

I did see the decline in Spring though.

I think there will still be a summer decline, but it won't be as severe as the usual. The standard Arkham Knight bundle should help sell PS4's through this month and August as well as having a much better summer lineup than last summer's.
 

aaronwt

Member
I expect a price drop but I see no reason for Sony to give the PS4 away for $299. A $50 price drop before the Taken King bundle is released would seem to make sense. Plus Sony needs to have the drop in place before Halo5 is released to steal some of it's thunder.
 
Nyar, I know you're out there. In your honor with this NPD release, I will take all data that comes out as a sign of the further decline and eventual obsolescence of the console games market.

Edit: Can't read.
 

Swass

Member
October 28th is the first day of PGW, so that tells me that's the date. As long as it's in time for Black Friday, the announcement will be huge.

October 28th is far too late for a price drop, US holiday shopping season starts October 1st with some early bird stuff as early as September.. Also stores have price guarantees in place for the October - January period so dropping it that late doesn't gain them more money and also allows on the fence buyers extra time to consider picking up the Xbox One..

If I were betting on it, I would put my money on September 1st to coincide with the release of Metal Gear Solid 5 and in its wake will also include the Taken King bundle on the 15th.
 

Rymuth

Member
Is this one better or worse.
Once again, you have failed me.

Takeshi Kaneshiro is the BEST Zhuge.

496588236.jpg
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Looks better.

I'm surprised at the lack of Amazon hourly chart posts in this thread.
(THANK GOD)

But hey, as I've had a bit too much to drink lets take a look at Amazon.

Well you see the PS4 is at #25, #26 and #70 for June whilst the Xbox One is at #27, #53 and #54.

So it's simple guyz. all you got to do is add up the PS4 numbers which is um... = 121.
Then you add up Xbox One which = 134.

Now the difference there is 13..... remember the last two months... 13k....! Coincidence? I think not!

Now anyway, What you do is get the PS4 total of 121 and times it by the highest ranking on Amazon which is 25 = 3025. Then you divide that by the 13 number we worked out earlier = 232. Then you add the lowest ranking SKU which is 70 to the total and you get 302. So the PlayStation 4 all in one entertainment system will clearly sell 302k this month.

Then you do the same for Xbox 134x27= 3618. Then like before, 3618/13 = 278. But instead of adding we're going to take away 54k which = 224k this month for the Xbox One Computer Entertainment system.

This post was made in order to inform new junior members how to effectively use Amazon to create arguments about which console is selling better. I suggest this method to help get you banned asap.



What.....? Don't look at me like that!

Once again, you have failed me.

Takeshi Kaneshiro is the BEST Zhuge.

Wouldn't the real Zhuge Liang be the BEST Zhuge?

I like Takeshi Kaneshiro in Red Clif! :)
 

Welfare

Member
Zhuge that post looks silly at first, but for May didn't you do the same thing and were pretty close?

Just checked and you were only close on Xbox. Still, it could hold up!
 
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