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Danganronpa Mafia |OT| Grin and Bear It

Makai

Member
I'm frankly appalled by CzarTim's lack of votes. Anyone without a vote on CzarTim at the end of Day 4 will face my fury on Day 5. For all we know CzarTim can use his ability again and you want to lynch somebody else? You are scum.
 
Sawneeks, that’s a very helpful document to peruse through, thank you for putting it together. Your observation has certainly helped me analyse precisely what was bothering me about Terrabyte20xx and Kalor. They were both using their votes in suspicious manner in Day 3, I believe.

I noted the ease with which Terrabyte20xx got upon the Sawneeks’ bandwagon as soon as it was started by Crab, keep in mind that Crab was a player that a number of players pegged as a Hope Leader at that time. I do not hold it against Terrabyte20xx, nor any other players, if they had believed that CzarTim was Hope in Day 3. What was more interesting to me was how players were using their votes at that fateful hour. Terrabyte20xx seemed to state that he would only vote when and if he was persuaded by evidence (Post. 2557). However, I noticed that he took to casting votes every which way, even throwing a particularly odd vote against Rest.

Kalor’s voting choices follow almost similar behaviour, but to a lesser degree, and he managed to get himself on the ‘right side of the track’ at the time of the bell rung.

Additionally, I want to commend Sawneeks not to have been baited to role-claim at the last minute by CzarTim. I believe CzarTim threw a very good bait at Sawneeks, saying that if she was indeed a Power Role, she should claim and provide some details. Of course he had packaged it in a martyrdom post whereby he urged players to vote for him instead of Sawneeks just in case she revealed her Power Role. It was a win-win for Despair at that stage, I believe. If the votes had swung to his favour, he would have outed (and lynched) another Hope Power Role, and he would have survived and gained reputation through his illusionary selflessness. On the other hand, even if the votes had condemned him (as they had), had he been successful at baiting the details of Sawneeks’ Power Role, the information gained would have helped Despair considerably as they would be able to make a better, more informed decision when they are deciding the order of their night-kills.

However, Sawneeks kept steady until the very last and I find her resolve tremendous.

ViviOggi, it has been very nice to have played with you. Good luck with your real life commitments and looking forward to an opportunity to play with you again in the future.
 
That's not what he is saying.

He is saying that The Lovers die because they are tied to the same location, and the Despair killer targets a location.

You and Franconp were not Lovers. However, you were in the same room on N1. If Czartim targeted Franconp's room, which you and franconp were both in, why did only one of you die?
I guess this got worked out then? Lovers aren't tied to a location, but to the other player, and all that?

I didn't die because Czar issue the KILL command for me. That's about it.

I'm frankly appalled by CzarTim's lack of votes. Anyone without a vote on CzarTim at the end of Day 4 will face my fury on Day 5. For all we know CzarTim can use his ability again and you want to lynch somebody else? You are scum.

I mean, plenty of us have said "we are going to vote for Czar but not immediately so we can still discuss stuff today". Seemed perfectly reasonable to me.
 

CzarTim

Member
yo before I go I'm going to drop some info to ponder:

As you'll see our win condition says we need to kill all other students, not just hold a majority of the playerbase. This usually indicated another faction, possibly a cult. Honestly not sure. Might be something to discuss tomorrow!
 

Swamped

Banned
Wow, lots to peruse today.


Ugh, seriously, you and Sawneeks are giving the rest of us a bad name, I feel like such a slacker now, thanks. Having said that, these documents will be very interesting to go through! Especially Sawneeks' Day 3 votes thing. It's kind of hard to keep track, especially towards the end of the day when I wasn't present so I can't really rely on memory. Also looking forward to the other days' analyses from Splinter, but I understand these things are a lot of work so no pressure.

I think one of my issues this day has been that a lot of the people who are pretty confident have been so wrong about previous things that it's hard to trust them.

*Splinters info sounds like a lot of effort for Despair. But at this point I think anything can be an act.

I also feel like the rule breakers at night have been more distracting to Hope and helpful to Despair than anything else. :(

Honestly, forum mafia has been terrible for my real life too in terms of trusting people lol. I keep suspecting everyone, even the pizza delivery guy.

If there was a ninja with some limited use, why would Czar even bring it up? I feel Despair has different tools to deal with fight club, but I see most still believe in a more limited ninja.

The presence of a Ninja would also mean they knew of the dangers of being seen and would probably not choose to lynch someone on the other side of the map.

I haven't done any of these so here are my reads:
Quiet hope: Kingkitty, Barrylocke, Rest.
Active hope: Zippedpinhead, *Splinter, Goshujinsama, Sawneeks.
Null: Vivioggi, TL21xx, Makai.
Troubling: CornBurrito, AbsolutBro, Terrabyte20xx, Kalor.

I agree with this thinking. I believe that CzarTim may have brought up the ninja mechanic after Despair's N1 snafu. This is what I think: Basically, he didn't realize that all the other Hope PR night wanderers would be essentially acting like watchers (I don't think that's the role I'm thinking of but you get it - the rulebreakers can see other people taking night actions). So to throw the Hope PRs off track, he willingly brings up 'fight club' in order to plant the seed of this fake ninja mechanic in the Hope PRs brains, because he probably realized that Hope PRs would have a smaller list of suspects compared to other students.

Still, if he had been the only Despair roaming the corridors, why bring up ninja mechanic at all? He had a perfectly good cover role, this 'one-shot cop' thing that everyone seemed to believe (including me, although I really regret not having questioned his cover story more. In Archer, both Haly and El Topo's stories fell apart after intense questioning). I think he brought it up to cover another Despair who was wandering around doing something else. I don't know everyone on the fight club list, but we've talked about N1 a fair bit. I feel confident that one of them has to be Despair. And hey, compared to the current number of players, that list of outed roles from N1 is pretty small! So our chances of hitting another Despair are high! I'm using that coupled with post content to make my choice for D5.

Also Ty4on - why did you ignore me in your list :(

Been meaning to get to this so here we go!

Now, Swamped...

Tag, you're it! No tag backs!

Haha, you got me! My stuff is on the way, definitely before the day phase ends. I've heard from AB and you, but not Terrabyte yet (regarding his opinions of you and AB)? Or if he has posted, I'm really sorry, please point me in the right direction.

Makai's game looks cute! So what happens if you win against several people, do you all vote in a huge block or something?
 

Swamped

Banned
Hey guys, I just sent Launch a request to be replaced. I thought I could sort it out but lately I haven't even had the time to simply read the thread at work, much less to post or make notes. That means I've been struggling to get any worthwhile reads together afterwards so I'm currently just a burden.

It's been fun though. Until next time (hopefully)!

Aw, it was fun playing with you too! Hope you join us for Season 4.
 

Swamped

Banned
Ok, so about my top three favorite people so far. I've also been looking at how Czar interacted with them to see if there is anything there.

Terrabyte20xx

I've discussed some of my misgivings before, he certainly brings up the map a lot, even before we brought up fight club and talks about it as thought he knows something more but is claiming not to? I agree with his statement that offering alternate theories is not scum tell, but to me his theory here, I personally interpret it as deliberately tryiing to lead us away from a conclusion? That's just how I feel, sorry TB, I do love your crazy theories though.

Posts like this from Czar lead me to believe he was trying to distance himself from TB, but at the same time be sort of non-committal about it. That's sort of how I would talk about a Despair compatriot. I said before that I was going to look at CzarTim's posts in more detail (which is such a pain seeing as there are sooooo many of them so feel free to correct me people) in order to see if there are any specific people he interacts less with. I think TB is one of them.

I also agree with Sawneeks about his voting during Day 3. I know he has talked about his last minute vote for Sawneeks, but to me it still looks like he trying to defend CzarTim in a situation that really could have gone either way. Sort of like he was trying to mask his vote and save Czar too. I actually feel this way about Zipped's vote too.

(a side note here, but the fact that Czar asks people to look at Vivi's vote make me more inclined to think he is Hope)

Also, AB said one of the reasons he trusted TB was his Day 1 vote for AB. But when I threw out that vote, I was using TB's own technique based on how he started the Star Wars Mafia game. It probably would have looked strange if he didn't vote.

AB

I've talked about AB throughout this day phase so I'll just summarize here:
Fightclub member, I'm not convinced of his explanation for not being suspicious of Pau after N1. I feel like this CzarTim/AB gambit could have been planned beforehand.
CzarTim overrode Crab who had AB pegged as Despair.
Thinking back, I also should have question Czar more about why he chose to 'investigate' AB of all people. There were far scummier people during Day 1. This also raises flags for me.
He outs Pau. Despair PRs would know Pau had a role, but not what the role is. Attempt at finding out more?


Sawneeks

...I'll get to you later, I'm tired now lol. You are one of the rulebreakers that we know of that definitely saw CzarTim N1. If my #TeamNoNinja theory is correct, then in my mind one of you is Despair. Pau I'm feeling pretty certain is Hope (or...at least I was until CzarTim's revelation about the Despair win condition?!?!? ask me more if you want). I just think it would be a mistake to assume you are Hope, especially after such a closely contested vote at the end of Day 3. As I've said before someone was proected someone, and if I can figure out who, that might answer questions about who might be despair.

Looking back at this post, I really need to read all of your posts again, I kind of got tired halfway through...

Right now my suspicions are like AB>TB>>Saw
 

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Haha, you got me! My stuff is on the way, definitely before the day phase ends. I've heard from AB and you, but not Terrabyte yet (regarding his opinions of you and AB)? Or if he has posted, I'm really sorry, please point me in the right direction.

Oh, I didn't know you wanted my opinion as well. OK, here goes!

AbsolutBro:

I'm very conflicted about him, mainly because I got snake-bit by Czar. I want to say he's hope, and that if he was Despair it would be a very big risk considering his actions, but I litteraly said the same things about Czar and we know how that turned out. I lean Hope, but only just.

Sawneeks:

Has stepped up her game since yesterday. I would say it's convenient, but considering my actions with Makai today, that would seem like the pot calling the kettle black. I disagree with some of her bases of suspicion against me but I feel that, like Makai earlier, most of that is due to mis-interpretation of a few of my comments. As long as they remain suspicious actions in her eyes, and not as primary motivation for lynching, I won't argue to much about them.

One thing I will mention is that I found her Day 3 notes a little odd. By this I mean she has comments that I assume are what she thought was suspicious about those particular posts. One in particular caught my eye: "Terrabyte20xx ( 2641 ) defends CzarTim as a great player and then asserts that there is no reason to lynch him despite the fact he wanted to be lynched."

The problem I have with this is that she looked at it from the new context of Czar being confirmed Despair, but missed a crucial angle: Czar had a power that let him change his Lynch to someone else. By the time of post# 2641, Czar had a sizable wagon of 6 votes, and only needed 4 to achieve majority. If I were Despair, would I not see the writing on the wall at that point and instead vote for? I mean, it would be a move that would've guaranteed good things. I'd have a hope player dead, and a vote on a confirmed Despair in the record books. But that didn't happen did it? It's like she looked at my posts, believed I truthfully stated my motivation and assumes that I'm Despair because it fits the narrative she has I'm her head, just like Makai earlier today.

...

Actually, a lot of her argument reminds me of Makai. Not nessisarily in terms of content, but posting style and presentation of evidence is giving the same kind of vibes. I currently think Makai is hope, so this actually makes me lean Hope on Sawneeks. But this is a double edge sword, if one of them flips Despair fornone reason or another, it definitely make me suspicious of the other.


Now there is one last thing I want to say: FOR THE LAST TIME, YES, I WAS TRYING TO SAVE CZAR YESTERDAY! I've been completely transparent about it, and my vote for Sawneeks yesterday was specifically for that purpose! And it did NOT come out of nowhere, I declared intention of advance.

I really don't want to lose Czar, everything he's done only makes sense with a Hope motivation, so if you guys are down, I'll switch my vote as nessisary.

And just for context, that was intended as a response to:

Czar has 4 votes and we have 15 minutes, so if people want to do an aversion wagon they don't have much time.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
Sawneeks

...I'll get to you later, I'm tired now lol. You are one of the rulebreakers that we know of that definitely saw CzarTim N1. If my #TeamNoNinja theory is correct, then in my mind one of you is Despair. Pau I'm feeling pretty certain is Hope (or...at least I was until CzarTim's revelation about the Despair win condition?!?!? ask me more if you want). I just think it would be a mistake to assume you are Hope, especially after such a closely contested vote at the end of Day 3. As I've said before someone was proected someone, and if I can figure out who, that might answer questions about who might be despair.

Looking back at this post, I really need to read all of your posts again, I kind of got tired halfway through...

Yeah that was a little...weird. We should be able to at least get the wording on that by tomorrow once Czar is lynched and we can try and figure it out Day 5. Until then I wouldn't worry much about it? Czar could be lying for all we know.

Before I forget:

Vote: CzarTim

Got work/class tomorrow but I think I should be here before the day ends, at the very least 30 - 40 minutes before it ends. Unless we end a few hours early ( which I'm fine with considering it's the last day of Day 4 ) but it's up to you guys. As long as Czar is gone.
 
Terrabyte20xx, one question: Following from your big theory (Post. 2385) suggesting that ViviOggi would be the ninja at play, why did you not vote for him at the end of Day 3 at all? There is an implication here that you may clear up for me. At the moment, it seems to me as if you had expended some effort to lead the votes away onto ViviOggi, failed, and since it was not a sincere theory or attempt, you did not follow up on it at the voting stage. Instead you threw a peculiar vote at new target (Post No. 2702), Rest, thereby raising the illusion of a potential Despair, trying to mask away his voting patterns for later scrutiny.

In fact, you attempted at setting him up as lead for the coming day (Post No. 2672). Where has ViviOggi suddenly disappeared to, in your spectrum of suspicion?

Speaking frankly, had I been convinced of my own theory, I would be more committed to my target. We can also see the very same behavior throughout the other, more vocal, players. CornBurrito and Makai, in particular, can be quite passionate and faithful to the point of tunneling at times. But this denotes that they absolutely believe in their internal analysis.

I do not see any of similar fervor from you. I would appreciate it if you can clarify on this for me.
 

*Splinter

Member
Launch: Personally I'd rather you change which day we end on than the time we finish. Pushing it any later would suck for Europeans :( (although I'm not sure how many are in this game compared to other time zones)
 

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Terrabyte20xx, one question: Following from your big theory (Post. 2385) suggesting that ViviOggi would be the ninja at play, why did you not vote for him at the end of Day 3 at all? There is an implication here that you may clear up for me. At the moment, it seems to me as if you had expended some effort to lead the votes away onto ViviOggi, failed, and since it was not a sincere theory or attempt, you did not follow up on it at the voting stage. Instead you threw a peculiar vote at new target (Post No. 2702), Rest, thereby raising the illusion of a potential Despair, trying to mask away his voting patterns for later scrutiny.

In fact, you attempted at setting him up as lead for the coming day (Post No. 2672). Where has ViviOggi suddenly disappeared to, in your spectrum of suspicion?

Speaking frankly, had I been convinced of my own theory, I would be more committed to my target. We can also see the very same behavior throughout the other, more vocal, players. CornBurrito and Makai, in particular, can be quite passionate and faithful to the point of tunneling at times. But this denotes that they absolutely believe in their internal analysis.

I do not see any of similar fervor from you. I would appreciate it if you can clarify on this for me.
First of all, I voted Vivi in the same post I outlined my theory, and I didn't move it until Sawneeks. I didn't stick with it because all of one other person had voted with me, keeping my vote on Vivi would've been wasting my vote, and instead of being suspicious about switching it, you'd be suspicious about leaving it, probably under the pretense of me being a Despair trying to stay out of the CzarTim vote despite heavily defending him.

And another thing, you mention others committing to people to the point of tunneling that isn't how I work. Tunneling rarely ever does anyone any favors and usually ends up convincing people to bandwagon genuine hope players when they're the target. I'd be willing to bet I would've been voted out today had Czar not been a confirmed Despair because of Makai's tunneling of me and CornBurrito. While tunneling can increase pressure on Despair and make then break, this almost never happens. Instead you usually end up tunneling a hope player, exhausting all your time on them, letting the real Despair sneak away.

And another thing, people keep bringing up Rest like I just randomly took a name out of a hat. There were people who had expressed suspicion of him shortly before Sawneek's soft role claim:

How so exactly? I'm not arguing. I'm fine with being voted out but I need to write up some reads so you guys have something to go off of tomorrow.

I'm not confident enough in a saw vote, but i'd vote rest.

I just noticed Rest hasn't voted at all this day phase which is odd. I feel like for how active they have been they should have a vote.

Wait... Where the fuck has Rest been today?

They've posted a bit starting around at this time. Not as much as prior days.

Sounds like we have a lead for tomorrow...

When I voted him, it was to offer a viable alternative after a majority of people had unvoted from Sawneeks following his soft role claim.
 

Ourobolus

Banned
Let's do this!
latest
 
I'm frankly appalled by CzarTim's lack of votes. Anyone without a vote on CzarTim at the end of Day 4 will face my fury on Day 5. For all we know CzarTim can use his ability again and you want to lynch somebody else? You are scum.

Lol. I want czar dead for the role pm info. But there's zero ducking chance he can use his ability more than once. Lol fucking lol
 
Hey there fellow classmates! Somehow I feel a bit ... weird today. It's like my mind has been swapped or something like this. I feel foreign to this body. Is this another ploy by this bear that claims to be our headmaster? However, let's get back to work. Just don't be confused if I act different then before...

(To be clear, italic stuff is really just flavor)

I have been following the game (as I have the other two, but I didn't take any notes or something. Actually because of following all three games simultaniously, they kind of blurred together from time to time (For short period of time I even thought that Haly (archer thread) was in this game and you now had to choose between two Despair to lynch...). So yeah, I have to sort this out, maybe skim the thread again, we'll see what it takes. Also note that I have zero previous hands-on-experience with Mafia whatsoever (tough I am playing the current ONUW).

I have, however, a few comments on the current situation:

1. I am convinced that Pau and Ty4on are Hope aligned lovers. There is no way 2 Despair players would claim lovers when a third despair (Tim) is in the same story. That would be way too risky.

2. On a similar note I think it's likely that AB is Hope, but I'm not quite so sure. On the one hand a sleepwalker role makes sense in this setting (it would do nothing in a vanilla games but here provides info for Hope and false leads for Despair). On the other hand it's a whole lot of coincidences in the story and I think the risk of one additional Despair in the Tim-story to slip up is much less likely than two. So there is the possibility that this is a ruse.

3. I think both the roleblocker and the room-target theory are wrong. In my opinion Tim's role has to disable Despair-NK for the following nights, otherwise it would be way to strong. Just think it through:

If Tim was a normal Despair we would have (in order):
1 productive day (finding Tim)
1 dead Despair (Tim)
1 dead Hope of Despair's choice (NK1)

If Tim's ability disables the following NK, we have:
1 productive day (finding Tim)
1 dead Hope of Despair's choice (Crab)
1 wasted day (we'll vote for Tim)
1 dead Despair (Tim)
1 dead Hope of Despair's choice (NK1)

so basically one free NK, which is reasonable

If Tim's ability does nothing else, we have:
1 productive day (finding Tim)
1 dead Hope of Despair's choice (Crab)
1 dead Hope of Despair's choice (NK1)
1 wasted day (we'll vote for Tim)
1 dead Despair (Tim)
1 dead Hope of Despair's choice (NK2)

so basically two free NKs. That would be ridiculous...

4. I am not convinced at all that there is a Ninja because that theory came from Tim.


I think we have to lynch Tim today because I want to see if my point 3 is true. I don't know how many votes Tim has currently (I think 7-ish) so I won't vote yet to not ending the day early by accident.
 

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Wait, so you think Czar's day ability disabled Despair's NK last night as a balancing measure?

That actually makes a lot of sense, we'll find out once he flips.
 

Ty4on

Member
I've toyed with the idea of Czar's ability disabling the night kill because it makes sense. On the other hand we got no indication and might be a way to balance Despair.
I think we have to lynch Tim today because I want to see if my point 3 is true. I don't know how many votes Tim has currently (I think 7-ish) so I won't vote yet to not ending the day early by accident.
Getting his role PM is a big reason why I want to lynch him as fast as possible. We don't have a sample PM in the OP so there could be something funny about how they conduct kills and I doubt he can use his ability again.
 

*Splinter

Member
That makes some sense, you know you remind me of one of our fellow students, but there name escapes me... Vio... Vera... Vikki something?
 

CzarTim

Member
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Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
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54 ad hominem...

Post 54:
As anxious as I am to start, Monday I think will be best. Deadlines on weekends are lame.

Which was a response to:
so, like, when do you guys wanna start?


...

OMG LAUNCH IS DESPAIR!
 

Swamped

Banned
I most likely won't be there for the deadline, especially if we end early, but yay, we did it! And welcome Royal_Flush, looks like you'll fit right in. Can't wait for Czar's flip to see if what you said is true, because your idea makes logical sense.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
Guys I think Royal_Flush is Despair. He only has 3 posts, 3! How does this even happen? Low post count = 100% scum.
:p

Welcome aboard! Starting things strong with a good suggestion/theory, I like it! Hopefully we can confirm things with Czar's role info, just like the potential 'third' group he hinted at.
 
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