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Danganronpa Mafia |OT| Grin and Bear It

Pau

Member
I think one of my issues this day has been that a lot of the people who are pretty confident have been so wrong about previous things that it's hard to trust them.

*Splinters info sounds like a lot of effort for Despair. But at this point I think anything can be an act.

I also feel like the rule breakers at night have been more distracting to Hope and helpful to Despair than anything else. :(
 

Sawneeks

Banned
Hey guys, I just sent Launch a request to be replaced. I thought I could sort it out but lately I haven't even had the time to simply read the thread at work, much less to post or make notes. That means I've been struggling to get any worthwhile reads together afterwards so I'm currently just a burden.

It's been fun though. Until next time (hopefully)!

:(

Take care!

I also feel like the rule breakers at night have been more distracting to Hope and helpful to Despair than anything else. :(

Yuuuup. Fight Club shouldn't ever be the go-to source of evidence against people, it needs to be a combo of that and posting history. There could be a member ( or two? ) of Despair who either don't move at Night or simply can't be seen at night, making fight club info against them essentially null.

More stuff like calling out inconsistencies in posting is great like a few of us have been in the last few pages.
 

*Splinter

Member
*Splinters info sounds like a lot of effort for Despair. But at this point I think anything can be an act.
I'm just glad to see more people coming round to this line of thinking. I'd like to point out that I was accusing Crab of encouraging people to play to expectations so that he could more easily employ a counter-meta strategy. I was almost right: he was doing exactly this but he did it to hide his role, rather than his alignment. Still, I think his strategy would ultimately benefit Despair more often than Hope.
 
I think one of my issues this day has been that a lot of the people who are pretty confident have been so wrong about previous things that it's hard to trust them.

Hrmm... I don't think I've been -that- wrong. I did think Crab was scum for 1.5 ingame days, but after Crab posted his indepth reads I pretty much changed on that. Meanwhile I was correct about kgtrep being Hope (though that was obvious), and did accurately state on D2 that based on his behavior Czartim would be Despair if Crab was Hope.
 
I'll admit it seems like an awfully lot of work if *Splinter is Despair.

Though it is technically possible that multiple members of Despair worked on that spreadsheet, which would cut the time down significantly. Of course Despair working on that sheet is pretty much only useful for a "hey I'm Hope!" gambit with one player. So either they are hardcore, or Splinter's Hope.

Splinter was honestly my best Mafia lead though based on his D2 and D3 voting behavior. So I'm at a loss.

Vote: Czartim
 

Sawneeks

Banned
As far as despair goes, I'm feeling 50/50 on Kitty and Rest. Rest's hostility towards Terra's methods in particular on post #2959 is rubbing me the wrong way.

Care to expand upon that? As well as what you mean by your '50/50' reads on both of them. Why are you suspicious of them, any posts jump out at you, etc?

Just want to see where your opinions are.

I mention this in my last post but since we know that they are Despair it means we can focus on voting for someone else today that we suspect. It's a weak reason and I'm fine with lynching them today but I feel like we could get more out of today by voting for them. Of course lynching them now means we don't need to tomorrow.

Being unsure about voting is understandable but I'm curious as to why you still feel like the Pros of keeping CzarTim alive outweigh the Cons? I know you're fine with switching your opinion on your vote but there has to be some reason, even a small one, as to why you feel this way.
 
*splinter, based on this new information you are very meticulous.

I need to process this, because I was sure you were bullshitting. Since you aren't I am pretty sure you are hope, because as others have said why would despair do this? AND why would despair go through this trouble just to save one person when czar could have used this yesterday to kill Sawneeks? Czartim's power, to auto lunch someone and be declared despair, is super powerful for despair, it effectively makes it so that they could end the game one day early if used in the end game. But they didn't use it like that.


So based on that thinking "why would czar use his ability when he could have used this spreadsheet", and the fact that the spreadsheet is very meticulous, which is something typically only one person would do (especially since it does not look like it has a key for others to follow).. I can conclude that without almost a shadow of a doubt that you are hope...

Shit... I had thought I was on to something.

vote:czartim
 
I'll admit it seems like an awfully lot of work if *Splinter is Despair.

Though it is technically possible that multiple members of Despair worked on that spreadsheet, which would cut the time down significantly. Of course Despair working on that sheet is pretty much only useful for a "hey I'm Hope!" gambit with one player. So either they are hardcore, or Splinter's Hope.

Speaking from experience, it's not as much work as it seems.
 

Pau

Member
More stuff like calling out inconsistencies in posting is great like a few of us have been in the last few pages.
Yeah, but any time I try to go through my notes and spot inconsistencies it's like: "Are they acting? Are they just as confused as I am?"

Hrmm... I don't think I've been -that- wrong. I did think Crab was scum for 1.5 ingame days, but after Crab posted his indepth reads I pretty much changed on that. Meanwhile I was correct about kgtrep being Hope (though that was obvious), and did accurately state on D2 that based on his behavior Czartim would be Despair if Crab was Hope.
It's not so much being wrong about specifics (because honestly Hope is working with very limited information) as it is the confidence, the tunneling, or shutting down possibilities. And I'm not talking about just you. It's hard for me to understand how some players are so confident in their assessments. D:
 
*splinter, why lie, even jokingly about having so much information and compiling it about crab?

It's the only thing left that still really bothers me. It's the one post that sticks out from your others (trying to get people to justify their votes, trying to catch people in inconsistencies, and so on).
 
Yeah, but any time I try to go through my notes and spot inconsistencies it's like: "Are they acting? Are they just as confused as I am?"


It's not so much being wrong about specifics (because honestly Hope is working with very limited information) as it is the confidence, the tunneling, or shutting down possibilities. And I'm not talking about just you. It's hard for me to understand how some players are so confident in their assessments. D:

They didn't call me a flip flopper for my immense confidence lol.

I'll admit I get tunnel vision at times. I honestly don't see it as a problem so long as everyone else keeps the big picture in mind to call me out when I miss something.
 

*Splinter

Member
Yeah, but any time I try to go through my notes and spot inconsistencies it's like: "Are they acting? Are they just as confused as I am?"
Well it's fair to question people on things like that. If they are just confused they can explain their thoughts in slightly more detail, which might be useful to you or them. Or if they're lying it forces them to cover.

D4 has been a lot better than 2-3 for things like this, I think.
It's not so much being wrong about specifics (because honestly Hope is working with very limited information) as it is the confidence, the tunneling, or shutting down possibilities. And I'm not talking about just you. It's hard for me to understand how some players are so confident in their assessments. D:
For what it's worth, I feel that in certain situations it is beneficial to appear more confident than you are. For example: me vs Crab, or Terra vs Makai.
 

Kalor

Member
Being unsure about voting is understandable but I'm curious as to why you still feel like the Pros of keeping CzarTim alive outweigh the Cons? I know you're fine with switching your opinion on your vote but there has to be some reason, even a small one, as to why you feel this way.

It's strange that coming into today I thought voting for someone else would be the way to go. However when I started writing about why I thought it was a good idea I came to a blank. There are no real pros except that we could vote a Despair but we have tomorrow for that and the day after. It's been more of a feeling rather than being a reasoned idea.

Also,
Unvote: Tl21xx
 

*Splinter

Member
*splinter, why lie, even jokingly about having so much information and compiling it about crab?

It's the only thing left that still really bothers me. It's the one post that sticks out from your others (trying to get people to justify their votes, trying to catch people in inconsistencies, and so on).
Honestly I didn't even see it as a lie. I had been compiling information, and this information would be useful in building arguments against Crab (or anyone else for that matter). I guess that post was just so poorly worded that I implied a stronger connection between my data and Crab, while also not being as obviously-jokey as I had intended.
 

Ty4on

Member
If there was a ninja with some limited use, why would Czar even bring it up? I feel Despair has different tools to deal with fight club, but I see most still believe in a more limited ninja.

The presence of a Ninja would also mean they knew of the dangers of being seen and would probably not choose to lynch someone on the other side of the map.

I haven't done any of these so here are my reads:
Quiet hope: Kingkitty, Barrylocke, Rest.
Active hope: Zippedpinhead, *Splinter, Goshujinsama, Sawneeks.
Null: Vivioggi, TL21xx, Makai.
Troubling: CornBurrito, AbsolutBro, Terrabyte20xx, Kalor.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
Yeah, but any time I try to go through my notes and spot inconsistencies it's like: "Are they acting? Are they just as confused as I am?"

That's just it, they might be acting! They might be falsely vying for Hope's best interest when they are secretly Despair. In cases like those it's best to ask them why they said or did this thing because if they are Hope they will explain it well, if they are lying or Despair they may jump around it, deflect it, or lie again.

And with cases where you're not confident if you should say something just remember:

giphy.gif


More discussion on the table means more chances to find Despair.

It's strange that coming into today I thought voting for someone else would be the way to go. However when I started writing about why I thought it was a good idea I came to a blank. There are no real pros except that we could vote a Despair but we have tomorrow for that and the day after. It's been more of a feeling rather than being a reasoned idea.

Also,
Unvote: Tl21xx

Eh, fair enough. I'm still fairly iffy on your alignment but.. sure, I'll accept that for now.
 

Rest

All these years later I still chuckle at what a fucking moron that guy is.
I will point out that I can't have killed Franconp. We know via myself and Pau (for those who don't believe me) that Czar was out and about N1. We know that his actual PR doesn't have a night component (unless this is some super wacky new take on a Governor). Ergo, the only way he was out of bed at night was by issuing the KILL command.

I was in the wrong place at the wrong time. That's all. It'd be hilarious if it wasn't so frustrating.
This is something that bothers me. The lovers mechanic states that the two both die because they're in the same place at the same time, right? If AbsolutBro was in the same room as franconp, why would he not die? Also, shouldn't he have seen whoever else entered the room inside?

VOTE: AbsolutBro


Now you're playing dumb. A location is a facility.
Wut?
 

Rest

All these years later I still chuckle at what a fucking moron that guy is.
As far as despair goes, I'm feeling 50/50 on Kitty and Rest. Rest's hostility towards Terra's methods in particular on post #2959 is rubbing me the wrong way.

Hey, hey, hey. Hey. Don't just ignore this:
As per the rules, I mean that in the nicest possible way, of course.


But honestly, has he given us any good leads or insight? I haven't dug back in the thread, but I don't remember a time that he has. He made a post about information he supposedly had, but when pressed on it now he says it was a bluff. Why waste time with a distracting post like that? I don't see how it's useful. And if he's not lying now I was right.
 
If there was a ninja with some limited use, why would Czar even bring it up? I feel Despair has different tools to deal with fight club, but I see most still believe in a more limited ninja.

The presence of a Ninja would also mean they knew of the dangers of being seen and would probably not choose to lynch someone on the other side of the map.

I haven't done any of these so here are my reads:
Quiet hope: Kingkitty, Barrylocke, Rest.
Active hope: Zippedpinhead, *Splinter, Goshujinsama, Sawneeks.
Null: Vivioggi, TL21xx, Makai.
Troubling: CornBurrito, AbsolutBro, Terrabyte20xx, Kalor.

Because Czar knew Paucwas hope and didn't want to pin francs murder on her. Had he survived without his ability (which I believe was the plan), we'd never have guessed he was the D1 killer because of the idea of a ninja.
 

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
This is something that bothers me. The lovers mechanic states that the two both die because they're in the same place at the same time, right? If AbsolutBro was in the same room as franconp, why would he not die? Also, shouldn't he have seen whoever else entered the room inside?

VOTE: AbsolutBro


Wut?
Actually, that's just a flavor explanation for why they both die. Traditionally, the other lover commits suicide because they're overcome with grief by the death of their loved one.

But that then begs the question as to why they leave their rooms in the first place...
 
Actually, that's just a flavor explanation for why they both die. Traditionally, the other lover commits suicide because they're overcome with grief by the death of their loved one.

But that then begs the question as to why they leave their rooms in the first place...

I actually have a hypothesis but I am not comfortable saying it.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
Phew! Finished cataloging the end of Day 3 mess. I'm going to clean this up and then post it. Am I allowed to post a Google Doc with the notes?

Actually, that's just a flavor explanation for why they both die. Traditionally, the other lover commits suicide because they're overcome with grief by the death of their loved one.

But that then begs the question as to why they leave their rooms in the first place...

Could just be a flavor thing as this is a school and the old stereotype 'oh the high school couple skipped class/broke the rules and are making out in the gym!' sort of deal.
 

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Phew! Finished cataloging the end of Day 3 mess. I'm going to clean this up and then post it. Am I allowed to post a Google Doc with the notes?



Could just be a flavor thing as this is a school and the old stereotype 'oh the high school couple skipped class/broke the rules and are making out in the gym!' sort of deal.
True, my big thing is how much of this is flavor, and how much is mechanical.

Eh, we'll figure that out by the time the game ends anyways, so I'm not going to worry TOO much.
 

Makai

Member
As in the announcement, this is a contest between two players. The loser must vote as the winner does on Day 5.

We will be playing Guess Who. From a cast of 24 characters, each player must choose one as their secret character. On his turn, a player may ask a yes-or-no question. The opponent must answer truthfully and mark out characters elminated by questions. If a player guesses the other player's secret characeter, they win! Players can easily lie about their chosen character, so I am introducing an important rule. You may switch your secret character at any time. Players may have to eliminate all but a single suspect to win.

MuKaVSG.png


There are a few guidelines for questions:
-Do not ask questions your opponent has already asked.
-Only ask questions about the avatars, not the players behind them. e.g. do not ask, "Did your character vote for Crab in Day 2?"
-Do not ask questions about color - I am colorblind.

I will ask the first question - Is your character a girl?

To respond:
-Answer the question with yes or no.
-Post your board with elminated characters. Please use red or yellow as your cross-out color to help me distinguish our boards.
-Ask a yes-or-no question of me.

I get an advantage by asking the first question, so I will handicap myself by elminating a suspect. Hmm, this guy doesn't seem fishy.

CvkO3VS.png
 
We have 22 hours left and counting, so I believe it may be time for me to put in my real vote, just in case.

Vote: CzarTim

Looks like we have generated a lot of valuable insight on where people are at today. When, or if, one of us does not survive the night, I am confident that the rest will have plentiful to work with.

Remember, Hope, we have successfully identified one Remnant of Despair! And I believe that Day 3 was one of the most exciting, and most watched, Days across all three current running games, and though each has had high moments, I admit full bias when I said that ours was a definite key-note event of Season 3 of GAF Mafia.

Summarizing my stances, in case I am no longer here tomorrow:

Hope: Ty4on, Pau, Sawneeks, Swamped, Barrylocke, AbsolutBro, Makai, CornBurrito

Suspicious:

  • Terrabyte20xx
  • Kalor

I have gone over Terrabyte20xx's posts and I remain unconvinced that he has acted in Hope's best interests. However, his performance from the current Day phase has been stronger than previous.

I saw Kalor put a vote against Rest quite swiftly in today's phase only to retract it almost as swiftly at Rest's brief rebuttal. He remains a player with slippery behaviors and the lack of clarity in his stances continues to induce worry.
 

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Did Makai just make an impossible game? How do you win guess who if the character can switch at anytime?!?

Of course the guy who accepted Blarg's Box Game challenge would do one of his own.
 

Makai

Member
Did Makai just make an impossible game? How do you win guess who if the character can switch at anytime?!?

Of course the guy who accepted Blarg's Box Game challenge would do one of his own.
You eliminate all but one of their suspects through yes-or-no questions. You wanna go? :)
 
This is something that bothers me. The lovers mechanic states that the two both die because they're in the same place at the same time, right? If AbsolutBro was in the same room as franconp, why would he not die? Also, shouldn't he have seen whoever else entered the room inside?

VOTE: AbsolutBro

the fuck? how in the world did you get that Franconp and I were Lovers?
 
the fuck? how in the world did you get that Franconp and I were Lovers?

That's not what he is saying.

He is saying that The Lovers die because they are tied to the same location, and the Despair killer targets a location.

You and Franconp were not Lovers. However, you were in the same room on N1. If Czartim targeted Franconp's room, which you and franconp were both in, why did only one of you die?
 

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Probably because we're putting WAY too much thought into fluff.

And even if that did matter, there's no guarantee that Pau and Ty4on are lovers, they could also be masons. Which would make that train of thought null and void.

Unless they actually claimed lovers when I wasn't paying attention. They didn't do that, did they?
 

Sawneeks

Banned
That's not what he is saying.

He is saying that The Lovers die because they are tied to the same location, and the Despair killer targets a location.

You and Franconp were not Lovers. However, you were in the same room on N1. If Czartim targeted Franconp's room, which you and franconp were both in, why did only one of you die?

This is actually a fair point. So far every ability has been classified by rooms or facilities, not necessarily by person. If you were in Fran's room when Czar targeted it you should have been killed as well.
 
This is something that bothers me. The lovers mechanic states that the two both die because they're in the same place at the same time, right? If AbsolutBro was in the same room as franconp, why would he not die? Also, shouldn't he have seen whoever else entered the room inside?

VOTE: AbsolutBro

I think this should be set straight to avoid confusion.

A role won't stay in a room after they complete their action unless it's stated otherwise in their description. That's not to say AB has a role, or that it lands on one side of that or the other. But a role that visits a room to perform an action doesn't have another action performed upon it until it returns to its room and only if they or their room were targeted.
 
Probably because we're putting WAY too much thought into fluff.

And even if that did matter, there's no guarantee that Pau and Ty4on are lovers, they could also be masons. Which would make that train of thought null and void.

Unless they actually claimed lovers when I wasn't paying attention. They didn't do that, did they?

Wait what are Masons? I thought it was just another term for Lovers?
 

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Masons are people who know each other are hope and have access to a secret thread just like the mafia.

Lover's are similar but have two important distinctions:

1. There can only be two lovers, that can be any number of masons.

2. When 1 dies, both die. Masons don't die together.
 
So, due to a major miscalculation on my part about my schedule, I'm not going to be able to do the day end summary tomorrow on time. I think I'm going to have Ouro do it, since he has fun doing those.

Moving forward, I'm going to have to push days back ~3 hours or extend/shorten the night phase so the day phase ends on a different day of the week. I'm not sure which yet, but my schedule is basically ass at the moment. I'm leaning towards pushing it to Fridays.

I also really apologize for the inconvenience this may cause guys. I don't have much foresight for these things.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
Having said that...I am curious what you guys think of each other. Eg Sawneeks, what are you opinions of AB and TB, etc?

Been meaning to get to this so here we go!

AbsolutBro

Before the happenings of Day 3 I was not sure about AB as he had been fairly quiet and didn't stand out too much, although this is something I am also fairly guilty of. With the start of Day 3 we get CzarTim role claiming and 'clearing' AB as a Hope player. This is AB's first post after Tim's claim

I can confirm I'm Hope (not that you have any reason to believe me), but if Czar is telling the truth then there's a simple check:

Vote: Pau

One of two things will happen: Pau is Despair and I feel like shit for ever doubting Czar. (that insane post of mine, with all the fucked up line breaks? Read closely)

Option two: Pau is hope, so you kill me (feel real bad about it) and then kill Czar.

IF Czar is hope, Pau won't be.

Which I find interesting since this first post actually outs another Fight Club member. A poor choice of a vote? Maybe. A way for Despair to slowly edge pressure of Pau? Also possible. The odd thing is nobody even picks up on this 'out' until CzarTim says how disappointed he is for AB to out Pau. I also want to note that AB says he did not think about an untraceable killer but then proceeds to explain how the 'untraceable' ability can be placed on any role. Here and Here. The only saving grace about the latter is that AB has stuck by this response that he didn't think there would be an invisible killer when voting for Pau. It makes me more inclined to believe it was just a poor choice of words plus CzarTim bringing attention to it that Pau gained traction.

So...I don't know. Day 3 is almost the only little pieces of info we have on AB so far other than a few bits today where he defends himself and his actions of Day 3, all of which make sense and line up. I am firmly in the middle.

However, out of the two you have asked me to look at I am far more willing to vote for one:
Terrabyte20xx

I do want to point out an exchange that TB and Tim had on Day 3 which feels almost...rehearsed? It's weird. It starts on page 43 for any curious. Basically, TB asks Tim to reveal some names of Fight Club to get a direction, though Tim denies saying he doesn't want to out anyone ( even though he kinda outed Pau?? ) , to which TB responds:
Only because come the night, you will probably die. Like I said, you can wait until the end of the day if you like, but with even the smallest chance of you know one of their names, you ARE a dead man walking.

Something which really hasn't been proven true. I mean, Goshu and Makai are alive even though they were 'revealed' and SalvaPot wasn't outed and still died. I also want to point out that Tim's role was a 'one-shot' and he was, at that point, just a Townie, someone not-so-important. It just seems weird and it helped paint CzarTim as Hope really well, negating a few people's suspicions of him. It could be a play by Despair to help build Czar in a good light.

Next I want to focus on the end of Day 3, specifically who Terra voted for and why or the lack thereof.

I wouldn't hit TL21xx quite yet. As someone who frequently travels across Texas, it does fit with a lack of activity.

I really, REALLY don't think we should vote out someone unless we think there is a good chance they are scum. Every hope live lost is just one more to add to the pile, and losing a general consensus hope player isn't going to give us much information.

Good advice, right? Don't vote for someone unless you have a real good reason to do so, it makes sense. Sooo...why vote for me at the end of Day 3? Your only given reason is this, which is in response to Crab voting for me:

It's funny, I was just winding about him myself. Looking over his vote record, he has yet to really take a chance past day one.

Before hand there had never been any talk about me, from you OR Crab. It feels very convenient that when the big ol' Hope Leader starts to look my way you have a good back up if you want to follow through. A weak one, at that. Didn't you just say that you need to have a good reason to vote for someone? 'Slightly odd vote records' doesn't hold up much compared to Makai or Zipped who, at the time, was considered super scummy and had people against them with evidence at hand.

We need to save Czar, I am sure of it.

VOTE: Sawneeks
-snip-

Why do we need Czar? Still haven't given a reason against me fyi.

He has been nothing but upfront about the map, fight club, and giving solid, if only opinionated, arguments about what info should and shouldn't be open to the public. And dispite all that, he's the lead Lynch candidate JUST because it could be a gambit. A long term, consistent, well thought out gambit that was set in motion from the beginning of day two and has held up to INCREADIBLE pressure. It makes no sense.

As for lynching him to set our minds at ease, We didn't do that when it was only KG and Crab, and that was practically the same thing, there is NO reason to Lynch him at this moment in time, none.

Defended Czar, that's fine. You lay out why he is good and should be saved, that this plan has been in motion for a while, had a lot of thought in it, has held up to other things....

Yet won't vote for Tim even though he wants people to? Despite the fact that you trust him? Your only defense is that we didn't do that for Kg/Crab and that we have no reason to kill Tim. We did have a reason, a few in fact; to settle AB's 'clear' and determine a Ninja or not. We had way more of a reason to kill him then than we did with Kg/Crab.

I then mention I have a role, you back out and vote Rest ( ???? ), but before you can shift your vote back to me ( which you try to do ) the Day finally ends with a majority on CzarTim.

Your saving grace is your arguments during today which you stated you place and questioned others well. I am still not quite so sure about you, but I would not be against a lynch being thrown your way.

Now, Swamped...

Tag, you're it! No tag backs!
 

Sawneeks

Banned
Also before I leave to go and get some things done, here is the End of Day 3 votes + notes.


I have separated it by Page number and included post numbers if there is anything you need to look up. However, I would suggest that everyone go back and reread that end as there is a lot to parse through but it's all good info in general.

I also hope to have it up by tonight as I don't think I can post it tomorrow before the day ends but I am very, very strongly considering a vote against Zippedpinhead tomorrow and for anyone questioning why I suggest you look at the End of Day 3's votes and Zipped's earlier posts.

@Launch

No worries! Seeing as our band of misfits is now dwindling maybe we can work the new end Day/Time around what would work the most for everyone? It might help just in case the new time suggested excludes more people due to work/class/commute.
 

Makai

Member
Crab's role explicitly said that a location is a facility.

Once per night, you may select a player who you will save if an attempt on their life is made. To do so, send me a PM with the text SAVE: <player name>. Conversely, you can use this ability on a location and it will protect players located in that facility.
 
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