My reasons? There's no hype and almost no asvertising.
Nintendo did a great campaign last February with Majora's Mask, but there's nothing now.
Still, I said again that Triforce Heroes could eventually reach the 200k mark.
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Media Create Sales: Week 39, 2015 (Sep 21 - Sep 27)
- Thread starter hiska-kun
- Start date
My reasons? There's no hype and almost no asvertising.
Nintendo did a great campaign last February with Majora's Mask, but there's nothing now.
Still, I said again that Triforce Heroes could eventually reach the 200k mark.
Yeah, I'm aware of these facts, but it's not like I'm expecting the game to sell millions like MHX. It's just that 200k seems quite low for the game. To sell less than 200k LTD it would have to sell less than 100k FW. I doubt Nintendo would even bother with it if that were the case. The game is coming out a whole month before MHX and even if it were competing with that game it'll still have plenty of time to sell.
I personally expect at least 250k for it, maybe up to 400k if it has a good word of mouth.
Judging from what I've seen I'm sure there will at least be a Tv advert and some in-store advertising, probably closer to release.
It just feels so strange to me to naturally expect less than 200k in early predictions for the game. It would be somewhat of a sales failure then in my opinion.
Edit: But yeah, I don't actually know the hype around the game in Japan, other than how many views the game gets on trailers.
Pennywise83
Banned
Tri Force Heroes is a cheap spin-off cash-in built on the same engine A Link Between World used and around a multi-player campaign... I am pretty sure Nintendo does not have big expectations.
Moor-Angol
Banned
Amazon Top 20 Software
01. (3DS) Monster Hunter X
02. (3DS) Monster Striker
03. (WiiU) Animal Crossing Amiibo Festival
04. (3DS) Picross 2
05. (PS4) MGSV
06. (PS3) WE2015
07. (PS4) WE2015
08. (WiiU) Splatoon
09. (PS4) Fallout 4
10. (PS4) Call of Duty Black Ops 3
11. (PS4) FIFA 16
12. (PC) DQ11 All-in-package
13. (3DS) DQ8
14. (PS4) Star Wars Battlefront
15. (3DS) Animal Crossing
16. (PS4) Uncharted Collection
17. (3DS) Pokemon Super Mystery Dungeon
18. (PSV) Tokyo Xanadu
19. (PSV) God Eater Resurrection
20. (3DS) Seven Dragon 2020 III
01. (3DS) Monster Hunter X
02. (3DS) Monster Striker
03. (WiiU) Animal Crossing Amiibo Festival
04. (3DS) Picross 2
05. (PS4) MGSV
06. (PS3) WE2015
07. (PS4) WE2015
08. (WiiU) Splatoon
09. (PS4) Fallout 4
10. (PS4) Call of Duty Black Ops 3
11. (PS4) FIFA 16
12. (PC) DQ11 All-in-package
13. (3DS) DQ8
14. (PS4) Star Wars Battlefront
15. (3DS) Animal Crossing
16. (PS4) Uncharted Collection
17. (3DS) Pokemon Super Mystery Dungeon
18. (PSV) Tokyo Xanadu
19. (PSV) God Eater Resurrection
20. (3DS) Seven Dragon 2020 III
Back before the DeNA deal I used to say Nintendo should test the mobile waters with these franchises since they basically died in the DS/Wii to 3DS/U transition anyway. I still think they could work on mobile now though alongside "core" IP like Mario.
Looks like a standard game-related trademark to be honest.
***
I really hope the first game isn't just a reskinned version of a popular game, and will be more like Pokémon GO than Pokémon Shuffle.
Pennywise83
Banned
3DS is slaying the chart.
Wait, I know it's amazon, but what are general expectations for Amibo Festival?
Moor-Angol
Banned
I think it would be interesting to see if the PS4 price cut affected, in positive way, MGSV
also PS4 has 7 games on that chart, the same number as the 4-years-dominator-sales, 3DS
that was the reason I posted that chart
also PS4 has 7 games on that chart, the same number as the 4-years-dominator-sales, 3DS
that was the reason I posted that chart
Pennywise83
Banned
Animal Crossing is popular as well as amiibo - the game might sell driven by the toys themselves. 150-200k?
I mean, we regularly have discussions centered around Comgnet.
Moor-Angol
Banned
no, first hour
I'd say the reason that's generally allowed is because it has had some precedent of ability to scale to expectation. I generally avoid looking at it as well, personally.
Moor-Angol
Banned
strange, I thought we constantly have discussions centered about splatoon or how publishers will move to NX
seriously, anyone is posting COMG chart daily, anyone is posting hourly amazon charts, some comments really have no sense
maybe it's better to go back talking about splatoon and NX, isn't it ?
SS
ßig
Unconfirmed Member
I'm ready for Spla2on.
fixed
If feel like you post more about Splatoon than most tbh.
NX discussion is about publisher movements in the case of new hardware given current conditions; it is never presented as anything other than speculation or that it has any even remote semblance of reality.
COMG, YSO, etc, are used to attempt to infer real market results in the current market, and they provide *numbers* which (while, for COMG relative to said store only,) give reference and relative performance scales. First-Day % are a loose indication on performance of a shipment but not idea on shipment size (but bad %/very good % performance is bad/good irregardless of shipment size). Maya gives us first hand insight into the market and movers.
Amazon hourly gives us none of these things aside from a scale... a scale that changes hourly (and spikes on release of something momentarily), has no numeric reference, and in has no way of telling you if #1-5 are 1% or 10000000000% larger than #6-20 combined. If you want to use an Amazon chart, it'd have to be the monthly one.
Pennywise83
Banned
LTD, actually. It's really a wild card - while it might look completely uninteresting for most gamers, AC is quite big in Japan right now; characters are very popular and the game might sell thanks to amiibo toys, and to a younger audience.
To be precise, it's not that COMG & co. are not real market data - they are just a sub-sample (not representative) of the population of store which sell vide games. They might be more skewed towards a specific audience, but they are real data.
Yes. yes. I said to infer market results, not intending to imply that they themselves are market results.
Oh, yeah, even for me those numbers was too huge for the first week
Let's still hope for >200k LT...Well, given that, neither Osakaking, Osho, nor Azalyn aren't useful just because they don't gives us the whole market scheme. I mean, I usually read Takarajima, Theta; or see HMV and Rakuten videogame rankings and are not bad at all. Maybe Amazon Hourly not, but the weekly chart is pretty useful.
Ōkami;180579080 said:
Agreed, which is why I wanted examples other than shuffle.
Thanks for the two examples you posted. They certainly seem like very small scale tests so I'm not quite sure if we can take anything away from that or read too much into those situations.
Hopefully not too long till Nintendo announce their mobile games.
Good news all around then.
kuroneko0509
Member
Another game for week 52 (Gundam EX VS Force)
http://www.inside-games.jp/article/2015/10/04/91797.html
http://www.inside-games.jp/article/2015/10/04/91797.html
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Curious to see how much of a boost MGSV would get.
Pennywise83
Banned
No PS3 this time?
kuroneko0509
Member
nope. the new game is only for ps4 and vita
Moor-Angol
Banned
Vita winter holidays saved
Cosmo Clock 21
Banned
Apparently MH Explore is no longer accepting new players (you just get a message to go away if you download and run the app), so that could be a source of it underperforming.
Kresnik258
Member
The lack of anything notable other than KanColle in the two months preceding this game is definitely going to hurt it.
Vita seems to have never had particularly strong Q4. Except 2013 (remodel into God Eater&PSTV in November and then Gundam Musou/Final Fantasy for December), every year seems to have been a bit of a bust. 2012 had absolutely nothing that I can remember (iirc, some of the lowest weeks in its history came in October 2012); 2014 was slightly better with Phantasy Star Nova (which underperformed) into Gundam Breaker 2 but still pretty weak.
Dragon Quest Builders would've done nicely to plug the gap, but nope. I'm hopeful we might see Minecraft make Vita a bit more child-friendly over the holiday period than it has been in previous years, which may be its only saving grace.
Pennywise83
Banned
At this point, a couple of additional games will not change any trajectory; just think how PSV wasn't even able to outsell Wii U during December 2013 or December 2014. All important PSV releases are catering to the same audience who bought the platform throughout the years. There's also God Eater at the end of October, for example.
Kresnik258
Member
I wasn't really talking about changing trajectory.
At least until last year, it was getting games that could at least move a bit of hardware over the holidays, but they all seemed to release throughout the year rather than targeting Nov/Dec.
But maybe that was the point. It's selling to people who have more than enough money to buy it whenever they want; compared to (your example of) WiiU which seems to sell to parents who want to buy a present for their kids, where it makes more sense to target your games over the holiday season.
So yeah, never mind. Sometimes I'm just a little surprised that out of 4 holiday seasons, there's been like 1 where big games hit with publisher-run incentives.
Part of it is that the system itself just isn't moving nor is Sony investing anything to spur on new purchases, last few years we had *something* come out from internal that moved hardware to some level. It wasn't right in the heart of holidays but it was still a decent effort and garnered interest from the larger audience that wasn't yet bought into the system. But now the fate of the Vita is obvious, and Sony doesn't see it as anything more than a system/install base to consume and leverage for the PS4.
Also a lot of publishers/developers are now focusing on buying into PS4-able titles before everything collapses, and to some degree and its safer to do this with "familiar software" which sells to the same crowd, trying to move them (as they are a known fanbase), rather than trying to do new things and attract new audiences. Changing base is one huge shift, then also changing the inner workings in drastic ways can invite problems for the fanbase.
Of course, in as of so far, the audience itself doesn't seem to be moving much (from PSV to PS4) so one could ask if the whole operation is actually going to be fruitful or destructive to the audience/fan base. If anything, I'd say most big transitions will see the old audience unmoved but new audiences attracted (like Danganropa PSV/PS4). When the PSV stops being supported some time in late 2016-2017 from simply march of technology and tools, we'll see what happens to the old audience.
Kresnik258
Member
New on COMG:
Monster Strike - 17 pts, 74 days from launch.
Wonder how it'll do compared to P&DZ.
Monster Strike - 17 pts, 74 days from launch.
Wonder how it'll do compared to P&DZ.
- [PSV] Tokyo Xanadu (Limited Edition) - 114pts
[*][PS3] Winning Eleven 2016 - 89pts
[*][PS4] Winning Eleven 2016 - 72pts
[*][PSV] Yoru no Nai Kuni (Limited Edition) - 58pts
[*][PS4] Yoru no Nai Kuni (Limited Edition) - 51pts - [WIU] Super Mario Maker - 49pts
- [3DS] Pokémon Super Mystery Dungeon - 37pts
- [3DS] Yokai Watch Busters: White Dog Squad - 37pts
- [PSV] Tokyo Xanadu (First Press Limited Box) - 35pts
- [3DS] Yokai Watch Busters: Red Cat Team - 32pts
- [3DS] Picross 3D 2 - 29pts
- [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition - 27pts
- [3DS] Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King - 25pts
- [PS4] Mad Max - 23pts
- [WIU] Splatoon - 22pts
- [3DS] Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer - 20pts
- [PSV] Yoru no Nai Kuni - 19pts
[*][PS4] Yoru no Nai Kuni - 17pts
[*][PS3] Arslan: The Warriors of Legend - 16pts
[*][PS3] Yoru no Nai Kuni (Limited Edition) - 16pts
Dragon quest builders and world of final fantasy don't seem like games catering to the same audience. With a decent price drop around dqb release which hasn't happened for psv for awhile I could see the system surviving for at least 2 more years. The ps4 version is for the western market. The PS3 version is most likely negligible so the psv will most likely benefit the most from those releases.
Btw weren't you the one that question whether the vita would even get games in 2016 and doubting that saga was going to even still be made for vita? It doesn't seem like announcements for the system are stopping anytime soon. The system will get games well into 2017 imo. Obviously Sony isn't the one that will be releasing games for it!!!
Parakeetman
No one wants a throne you've been sitting on!
Sword Art Online PS4-
its a damned shame that they didnt go with an actual LE instead of those horrid bay covers.
Eolz
Member
I'd say X. YW is slowing down, and X is bringing something new to the franchise that might interest new and old players alike.
Moor-Angol
Banned
God Eater Resurrection you think it will sell sub 50k?
GE:R, Kan Colle and Gundam should all pass 200k
plus a ton of games released in the next months
Definitely best winter holiday ever for Vita, seems like you dont have clearly an idea about the Q4 release for this system...
Tsutaya's Ranking Week 40 2015
01./00. [PS3] Winning Eleven 2016 <SPT> (Konami)
02./00. [PSV] Tokyo Xanadu <RPG> (Nihon Falcom)
03./00. [PS4] Winning Eleven 2016 <SPT> (Konami)
04./00. [PS4] Yoru no Nai Kuni <RPG> (Koei Tecmo)
05./00. [3DS] Picross 3D 2 <PZL> (Nintendo)
06./00. [PSV] Yoru no Nai Kuni <RPG> (Koei Tecmo)
07./02. [WIU] Super Mario Maker <ETC> (Nintendo)
08./01. [3DS] Pokemon Super Mystery Dungeon <RPG> (Nintendo)
09./00. [PS3] Arslan: The Warriors of Legend <ACT> (Koei Tecmo)
10./00. [PS3] Yoru no Nai Kuni <RPG> (Koei Tecmo)
11./00. [PS4] Mad Max <ADV> (Warner Entertainment Japan)
12./03. [3DS] Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King <RPG> (Square Enix)
13./04. [WIU] Splatoon <ACT> (Nintendo)
14./00. [PS4] Arslan: The Warriors of Legend <ACT> (Koei Tecmo)
15./08. [PS4] Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain <ADV> (Konami)
16./00. [PSV] Tokyo Ghoul: Jail <ADV> (Bandai Namco Games)
17./05. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters: White Dog Squad <ACT> (Level 5)
18./11. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters: Red Cat Team <ACT> (Level 5)
19./00. [PSV] Tokyo Xanadu (Limited Box) <RPG> (Nihon Falcom)
20./09. [3DS] Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer <ETC> (Nintendo)
01./00. [PS3] Winning Eleven 2016 <SPT> (Konami)
02./00. [PSV] Tokyo Xanadu <RPG> (Nihon Falcom)
03./00. [PS4] Winning Eleven 2016 <SPT> (Konami)
04./00. [PS4] Yoru no Nai Kuni <RPG> (Koei Tecmo)
05./00. [3DS] Picross 3D 2 <PZL> (Nintendo)
06./00. [PSV] Yoru no Nai Kuni <RPG> (Koei Tecmo)
07./02. [WIU] Super Mario Maker <ETC> (Nintendo)
08./01. [3DS] Pokemon Super Mystery Dungeon <RPG> (Nintendo)
09./00. [PS3] Arslan: The Warriors of Legend <ACT> (Koei Tecmo)
10./00. [PS3] Yoru no Nai Kuni <RPG> (Koei Tecmo)
11./00. [PS4] Mad Max <ADV> (Warner Entertainment Japan)
12./03. [3DS] Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King <RPG> (Square Enix)
13./04. [WIU] Splatoon <ACT> (Nintendo)
14./00. [PS4] Arslan: The Warriors of Legend <ACT> (Koei Tecmo)
15./08. [PS4] Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain <ADV> (Konami)
16./00. [PSV] Tokyo Ghoul: Jail <ADV> (Bandai Namco Games)
17./05. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters: White Dog Squad <ACT> (Level 5)
18./11. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters: Red Cat Team <ACT> (Level 5)
19./00. [PSV] Tokyo Xanadu (Limited Box) <RPG> (Nihon Falcom)
20./09. [3DS] Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer <ETC> (Nintendo)
Oof at a lot of that if it goes as YSO was predicting to WE2016 (see averages), but I am surprised by WE2016-PS3 being above Xanadu on this chart. Then again, I have no idea what the expectations are for any of these non-WE titles. For reference: