But what are your reasons for assuming it'll go below 200k? Most Zelda games sold more than that and this one has decent advertising, (online-) multiplayer, releases in the early christmas season and is on a platform with many Zelda games, so there should be a decent fanbase.
My reasons? There's no hype and almost no asvertising.
Nintendo did a great campaign last February with Majora's Mask, but there's nothing now.
Still, I said again that Triforce Heroes could eventually reach the 200k mark.