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[10k]

I was gonna post this a few days ago but it's pointless. Yes, Nintendo usually has the precedent of an 18 month dev cycle but the Wii U and 3DS are floundering, getting trickle support from Nintendo and if you think about it, the NX was talked about back in April, so it could be 18 months

I just don't think the 18 months thing is set in stone or is some internal rule at Nintendo. It was probably coincidence and the situation is more dire then transitioning from GameCube to Wii or Wii to Wii U.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Perhaps some form of the NX will release in 2016, but the full NX I could see releasing in 2017?

 

[eifer]

Of course it's launching in 2016. I can't see it... not.

Zelda isn't even done for Wii U. A Nintendo console isn't finished until the best game they're releasing is on a dead console.

 

[BeforeU]

This shit in every Pachter thread is the most tired ass thing on GAF.

Ya pretty much how I feel. Fucking ridicules.

 

[DrZeus]

First post wins again.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

I was gonna post this a few days ago but it's pointless. Yes, Nintendo usually has the precedent of an 18 month dev cycle but the Wii U and 3DS are floundering, getting trickle support from Nintendo and if you think about it, the NX was talked about back in April, so it could be 18 months

I just don't think the 18 months thing is set in stone or is some internal rule at Nintendo. It was probably coincidence and the situation is more dire then transitioning from GameCube to Wii or Wii to Wii U.

Totally. I don't see why they would suffer or let their fans suffer another year and a half of what the release list looks like for the Wii U or 3DS at this point. There's basically nothing coming after Metroid and Zelda next year, right?

 

[Spyder_Monkey]

Totally. I don't see why they would suffer or let their fans suffer another year and a half of what the release list looks like for the Wii U or 3DS at this point. There's basically nothing coming after Metroid and Zelda next year, right?

Do you want a crappy rushed launch, because that's how you get a crappy rushed launch.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

Nintendo has to launch in Holiday 2016. There is absolutely no way in shit they don't. The only other option is Holiday 2017, and that seems ridiculous.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Do you want a crappy rushed launch, because that's how you get a crappy rushed launch.

Who says that is going to happen?

 

[Hubb]

Totally. I don't see why they would suffer or let their fans suffer another year and a half of what the release list looks like for the Wii U or 3DS at this point. There's basically nothing coming after Metroid and Zelda next year, right?

Yes, but do they really want to come out with a lackluster launch line up? Best bet is that they port a bunch of WiiU titles (or have BC). I have no idea if it'll release in 2016 or not, but I can't believe Nintendo wants to rush a release and potentially fumble at the start. I think they'd prefer to have another quarter of lack luster WiiU sales if it means a stronger NX launch.

Who says that is going to happen?

These things need time, has nothing to do with anyone saying anything. Earlier it releases the less time they have.

 

[Deleted member 126221]

I wouldn't be too surprised to see it in 2017 honestly. Nintendo isn't always "logical"; they really march to the beat of their own drum.

 

[Arttemis]

It'll release in 2018

On a serious note, Nintendo has done nothing to indicate a 2016 launch outside of "we'll talk about it then" and considering their history of announcing consoles about a year to a year and a half before launch, yeah I doubt it'll release in 2016. I think Nintendo will use the Wii U and 3DS as testbeds for some their ideas for the NX like Nintendo Account and their rewards program and whatnot.

I agree. I don't see them rushing the WiiU's replacement out the door in an exaggerated hurry. Nintendo has had declining console sales with every generation, outside from the will. I don't the return to business as usual has convinced them to make brash decisions.

 

[IdreamofHIME]

You don't get 18 months between unveiling and releasing anymore. Nintendo knows this.
Just because that's what happened before, dies t make it a lock for what their future plan is. Christ, they don't even have the same president running the show, so how can you say they have the same strategy as before?

 

[iMax]

On a serious note, Nintendo has done nothing to indicate a 2016 launch outside of "we'll talk about it then" and considering their history of announcing consoles about a year to a year and a half before launch, yeah I doubt it'll release in 2016. I think Nintendo will use the Wii U and 3DS as testbeds for some their ideas for the NX like Nintendo Account and their rewards program and whatnot.

The position they're in requires them to get this thing out as quickly as possible. Wii U sales are shit. A whole year of no Wii U or 3DS sales, after an NX platform announcement, will be suicide.

 

[RedSwirl]

I would have said the same thing earlier this year. For a while I assumed we'd get a new handheld next year, and a new console in 2017, but the information that's been coming out suggests the NX is further along in the pipeline than that.

 

[Richie]

Real talk, when was the last time Pachter predicted something that ended up true? Specifically on the Nintendo side of things. Wii HD coming back in 2010, 3DS being able to sell millions "even at a price of upwards of $250"...Like, if he was the human Paul the Octopus sure, I could be intrigued by his thoughts, but as it is, what gives him such notoriety?

 

[Hubb]

You don't get 18 months between unveiling and releasing anymore. Nintendo knows this.
Just because that's what happened before, dies t make it a lock for what their future plan is. Christ, they don't even have the same president running the show, so how can you say they have the same strategy as before?

He is just giving his opinion, no need to get angry. The OP conveniently left out the first line from the quote:

"I can talk about Nintendo’s past practice, and use that as a predictor of the future. But, I don’t know".

 

[iMax]

Also, wasn't there a rumour that it was releasing July 2016?

 

[Lord_Byron28]

Totally. I don't see why they would suffer or let their fans suffer another year and a half of what the release list looks like for the Wii U or 3DS at this point. There's basically nothing coming after Metroid and Zelda next year, right?

For Wii U we have SF0, Pokken, TP HD, Zelda Wii U and #FE. There may be some other unannounced titles that they will announce later like they always do(perhaps Pikmin 4) but I doubt there will be any other major unannounced titles. The only "major" 3DS titles I can think of so far are Metroid Federation Forces, MH:Stories and DQ11. The west will still have a bit of localization to catch up on. I also think Pokémon Z is still happening on the 3DS.

 

[Elios83]

I don't think Nintendo can afford to launch in 2017 Pachter, they might be hit with delays but there's no way Nintendo isn't planning to launch a new platform late next year.

 

[Papercuts]

They are very obviously twilight princessing zelda to launch on this, which would be dumb to do if it won't hit next year.

 

[10k]

I see this guys opinions and predictions being posted as if they're news all the time. Who is he?

Nobody. He was famous for 15 minutes for slamming Nintendo and Iwata back in the day saying the DS would get slaughtered by the PSP and the Wii would fail and then in 2009 he said the Wii should get an HD version out if it wanted to survive.

He basically says sensationalist things you'd read in a gaf thread.

Officially he's an analyst who tells investors which stocks they should buy or sell but Nintendo isn't one of the companies he analyses (I think Activision is one he does).

He seems to have some personal vendetta against Nintendo or maybe he became aware of the meme and enjoyed the attention so he keeps adding fuel to the fire.

Tl;dr he's nobody but he seeks attention

 

[Vibranium]

pachter is that you?

He actually has a Gaf account but doesn't want to be called a turkey all the time. I wish he would post more and mix it up with people here haha.

I agree with Pach, 2017 launch. This way we'll get it by 2016.

 

[Ploid 3.0]

Dang, TLG, Tomb Raider, Uncharted, SFV, PC CPU Ram and motherboard, etc etc and now NX. I'm screwed next year.

 

[blamite]

I didn't think it would but now I'm starting to reconsider!

 

[Instro]

Also, wasn't there a rumour that it was releasing July 2016?

That's not quite right, but the supposed manufacturing shipment information would have it ready for next fall. I'd be shocked if this thing isn't out by next November.

 

[ChaosZeroX]

Does Pachter work for Polygon?

I think if Nintendo wants to win back fans, they should release NX next year.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Yes, but do they really want to come out with a lackluster launch line up? Best bet is that they port a bunch of WiiU titles (or have BC). I have no idea if it'll release in 2016 or not, but I can't believe Nintendo wants to rush a release and potentially fumble at the start. I think they'd prefer to have another quarter of lack luster WiiU sales if it means a stronger NX launch.



These things need time, has nothing to do with anyone saying anything. Earlier it releases the less time they have.

Why are you so sure launching next year is premature? Do you have inside information? They already said that the new system isn't just an extension of the types of experiences you find on Wii U, so I expect that it will be different and much less tied to the same scale of development current gen software is, like Wii was relative to its competition. Now, I'm not advocating an early release ahead of when it's ready, but I trust Ninty to know what they're doing and, currently, there's not a lot to retain fans and consumers of their current platforms if the current release lists are accurate for next year's actual releases. Ninty might be banking on whatever it is about the new platform to take off and draw a massive new audience on its own, but I don't think they can afford to shed more of the younger market to the outside competition of mobiles, either. Wii saw some overlap with a dying Gamecube, sharing some of the very same releases. There's no reason to believe that won't be the case now even if the new platform is focused on very different experiences.

 

[sixteen-bit]

I'll preorder now to avoid disappointment.

 

[Anth0ny]

2016 guaranteed.

 

[10k]

You don't get 18 months between unveiling and releasing anymore. Nintendo knows this.
Just because that's what happened before, dies t make it a lock for what their future plan is. Christ, they don't even have the same president running the show, so how can you say they have the same strategy as before?

Yup. 18 months with social media and news outlets today is a bad strategy. Look what happened to the Wii U. Nintendo showed it early, hit negative press, went silent for a whole year and then failed epically at E3 2012 to the point where they never did a live press conference again at E3.

June 2011-November 2012 have lots of time for doubt and negative feedback and leaks.

Sony and Microsoft did a good job announcing it and releasing it within the same year. Sony showed it in February and released it that November (9 months) and Microsoft showed it in May and released it in November (6 months).

With the rumoured dev kits and production starting Q2 next year the NX will probably be shown off at a Nintendo event in the late winter or early spring and than get a huge push at E3 for a November 2016 release.

 

[inky]

1st thing he's ever been right about.

He predicted everything that happened with Microsoft 1 year before they did the always online announcement.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJJKAlNNdi0

I know you wanted to do a funny, but to all you naysayers, he's been plenty right about a lot of shit. I'd definitely trust whatever he says before any armchair analyst console warrior on GAF.

 

[Tagg9]

Unless Nintendo is relying on all their revenue coming from mobile games next year , they will be releasing a new handheld and console.

 

[OnADock]

Does anyone actually believe Nintendo is going 2 more years on the Wii U and 3DS? There's no way the NX isn't coming out next year.

 

[Lionel Richie]

2016 launch confirmed!

 

[-Horizon-]

I hope they don't delay it to 2017 because 'reasons' but I wouldn't put it past them for having that happen. I'm still believing in a 2016 release though.

 

[krae_man]

Michael Pachter: Nintendo typically doesn't announce and release a console in the same year so going off that I'm going to predict the NX comes out in 2017

GAF: LOL stupid Pachter

His reasoning is way sounder then yours(you have none).

 

[Hubb]

Why are you so sure launching next year is premature? Do you have inside information?

I have as much inside information as you do. Why are you so sure it is launching next year? Do you have inside information?

No, I am just going off of what we (general public) know, and if I were to bet, I would bet that it is out in time for 2016 holiday season. I am worried about the launch though, and I will continue to be worried about it actually launches. I don't want another WiiU situation, but this time Nintendo is really going to have to convince me to buy into the NX. Specially at launch.

Basically I don't know if they are launching it prematurely, but I don't want them too.

 

[Spyder_Monkey]

The position they're in requires them to get this thing out as quickly as possible. Wii U sales are shit. A whole year of no Wii U or 3DS sales, after an NX platform announcement, will be suicide.

They'll just ride it out then. It's not like Nintendo's going to shut down between now and 2017.

 

[Godzilla's Left Toe]

He is just giving his opinion, no need to get angry. The OP conveniently left out the first line from the quote:

"I can talk about Nintendo’s past practice, and use that as a predictor of the future. But, I don’t know".

But it's not just Mike it's people who work at "Major gaming sites" Youtubers Posters on here with the this is what they have always done that thinking has led to Wii U and the 3ds.

 

[Dedication Through Light]

Why would it release in 2016. It would have to be a perfect storm of production efficiency and everything for it to even make a fall launch and that is highly unlikely.

 

[4Tran]

Pachter makes two basic points: the first is that Nintendo's past practice was to make a formal reveal 18 months before release and the second is that third party developers need a certain amount of time to polish their games for the NX launch. I feel that both arguments are weak - Nintendo's 18 month reveal is a factor of how they feel about the market, and given what kind of straits they're in, they'll dump it if at all convenient. Also, even if a game isn't running up to par, publishers have shown little reluctance in dumping them on the market.

At this point, a 2016 launch for the NX console is pretty much set in stone. Nintendo needs it too much for a later date.

 

[sKiTz]

I think it will be ready right in time for Xmas 2016.

I'd bank on it.

 

[Biff]

Has anyone actually looked at Pachter's predictions, and compared which have been right, and which haven't? Instead of drive-by posting the same tired GAF meme?

If Pachter was wrong as often as GAF says he is, he wouldn't have a job. He advises his clients on investments in the scale of hundreds of millions of dollars.

Most equity analysts are correct about 60% of the time, and considering how highly regarded he is in the industry, I'd assume his hit rate is above average.

 

[Blood Diamonds]

nintendo NX to release tomorrow

 

[Experien]

for once he is right...2017.

 

[brandonh83]

Zelda isn't even done for Wii U. A Nintendo console isn't finished until the best game they're releasing is on a dead console.

I have my doubts that this matters.

 

[4Tran]

Why would it release in 2016. It would have to be a perfect storm of production efficiency and everything for it to even make a fall launch and that is highly unlikely.

Why? The Xbone and PS4 didn't enter full production until Summer of 2013, so how is the NX console behind schedule?

 

[Lebon14]

Finally something I can agree with that guy. Early 2017 is my prediction.

 

[qa_engineer]

Yup it's me, Michael Pachter. Oh wait, I guess that confirms I'm NOT Michael Pachter! Lololololol one and done leaving satisfied lololol.

That actually made me laugh. Fucking Gaf