I agree. Within about 11 months we should see at least one form of NX released.
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Pachter predicts NX won't release in 2016
- Thread starter BennyBlanco
- Start date
I agree. Within about 11 months we should see at least one form of NX released.
primasaurus
Member
People worrying about Wii U sales, Nintendo's only concern is profit, which they have historically done consistently with low sales
If Wii U is making a profit now Nintendo won't be in any rush, they will probably release in late 2017 as planned, the NX will get it's official announcement at E3 18 months before release as they have always done
Keep in mind Nintendo are often profitable even with low sales
If Wii U is making a profit now Nintendo won't be in any rush, they will probably release in late 2017 as planned, the NX will get it's official announcement at E3 18 months before release as they have always done
Keep in mind Nintendo are often profitable even with low sales
Unless he's right, in which case he's apparently Captain Obvious. Make your minds up!
OrbitalBeard
Member
I absolutely believe it's a 2016 launch but it wouldn't surprise me if Nintendo isn't ready and it gets pushed back.
Which would be absolutely insane, by the way. Although there have been some great Wii U games in the past 24 months, so many of their biggest teams have been silent the past couple years. If a 2016 launch isn't feasible, Nintendo is in big trouble.
Which would be absolutely insane, by the way. Although there have been some great Wii U games in the past 24 months, so many of their biggest teams have been silent the past couple years. If a 2016 launch isn't feasible, Nintendo is in big trouble.
i think ead tokyo and retro studios both have stuff ready for launch. zelda and pikmin 4 are other potential games. in japan, dragon quest x or xi could coincide with launch along with monster hunter stories or something. in the us, it will probably be sonic's 25th anniversary game.
the 3ds has basically been carried by third-party studios since 2013, and the wii u's biggest titles are behind it now, barring zelda.
NX will get COD, and at least one Madden and FIFA
GTA IDK, I wouldnt be shocked if Rockstar ported it to NX if it was easy to port
i find it increasingly difficult to believe it won't come out in 2016. between iwata's comments about returning to nintendo like profits in the next fiscal year, to the company not talking about anything nx until 2016 (with zelda fitting the same restrictions, but with a release date), and nintendo's new account stuff launching at the end of this fiscal year, it just makes sense they're making 2016 the start of a new era for nintendo.
2017 is possible if they are horribly missing the intended launch date and zelda's only 2016 because of it. it seems like a really bad idea to have the mobile initiative to get going in the absence of any solid platform though.
bobawesome
Member
I would definitely buy if the above turns out to be true. Nintendo phone? Count me in
It's inevitable isn't it?
it'll look a bit silly holding up a controller to your ear but I'm sure the industrial designers at Nintendo can work some magic.
They can't have another holiday season like 2015... they've got to aim for 2016. With the hints they've dropped about using best in class parts, leads me to believe this will probably be similar to phone hardware and missing next year means there's too big of a gap to 2017.
And now that the debug units have been handed out - this normally means 6-12 months dev time for launch games. I'd expect it to come out next year.
Yeah, and I think we'll see the portable NX before the home NX due to the 3DS being older than the Wii U.
gamerMan
Member
I really don't care when it is released. I just want to see a launch different from the Wii U. Show me why I have to own this thing with games not promises in the future. Show me 3rd party games. Show me how this is going to be different from the Wii U, PS4, Xbox One. If there is a gimmick they better have software demonstrating why it is necessary.
OrbitalBeard
Member
My theory for awhile has been that Japan will receive the NX portable form factor next fall and the west will receive the NX console. In Spring 2017, Japan will get the console and the portable will launch in the west. This would hopefully guarantee enough supply for each market during the holidays.
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
You really think there's just finished titles lying around ready to be launched with the system? At most I think, NX titles are in the early stages of development because the system isn't being released until 2017.
Is it basically confirmed that they're two separate devices? I'd gotten the impression that it was a single, portable device that had a home dock to let it act like a console.
On-topic: if they release it in 2017 it'll be more like they're the first to the next-gen. If it's next year it might seem like they're just very late to the current-gen. It would be smarter to appear like the former.
OrbitalBeard
Member
I doubt they're finished but they're likely deep in development. We know for a fact Retro started their current project over two years ago, for example. It probably started as a WiI U title but got moved to NX in 2014. My speculation on that last part, obviously.
Pachter isn't saying anything outrageous and is going off of historical data. A 2017 launch is easily possible. I think it's possible that Nintendo will announce and release the NX in 2016, allowing them to sweep the Wii U under the rug without having a year and a half of anticipation for a successor.
CambriaRising
Member
He's right though, 2016 is a sad pipe dream.
ead tokyo's release list looks like this:
2005 - donkey kong jungle beat
2007 - super mario galaxy
2010 - super mario galaxy 2 (completed in 2009)
2011 - super mario 3d land
2013 - super mario 3d world
2014 - captain toad
i think they're due for a new game in 2016, since toad was a small budget game made on existing assets. then for retro:
2002 - metroid prime
2004 - metroid prime 2
2007 - metroid prime 3
2010 - dkcr
2014 - dkctf
tropical freeze was done in 2013 and pushed back to fill the spot where mario kart 8 used to be. retro should absolutely have something ready in 2016.
it's not a matter of sitting on games (well, that's probably the case with zelda), but release dates matching up.
OrbitalBeard
Member
I think at most, it's a pipe dream for a console launch, even if I disagree. But to think a portable isn't launching next year seems insane to me. 3DS is five years old right now and is Nintendo's worst selling portable. I'm not counting Virtual Boy.
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
You're probably not wrong but I doubt the NX is coming that soon. Plus Retro's new game coming in 2017 would put it at three years since Tropical Freeze which is pretty average for how they release stuff.
This does make a lot of sense. It also would not surprise me at all.
On a side note, I really do hope the west can still get the 3DS version of DQ11.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Four years actually, particularly if we're talking about a Holiday 2017 launch. TF was finished in November 2013.
I mean, unless you think the first NX form factor is releasing in early 2017.
primasaurus
Member
Think in terms of being profitable, they are at the moment, Nintendo may not want to push this aside too fast for what might come
They generally don't lose money like Sony and MS when sales go down
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
Tropical Freeze was released in 2014.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Not sure why there would be a problem with getting third party titles ready. If the system is adequate enough and easy enough 12+ months for porting titles that will be releasing in the release window is easy.
I doubt there would be many exclusive third party attempts. Any that might exist would possibly be titles that were at one point PS4/XBO and they decided it wasn't worth it or they decided NX might be a better fit so development would have already been underway
I doubt there would be many exclusive third party attempts. Any that might exist would possibly be titles that were at one point PS4/XBO and they decided it wasn't worth it or they decided NX might be a better fit so development would have already been underway
Nintendo had a few years where they abandoned the wii and they still managed to crap out on the Wiiu, who says they can't fail the same way again?
In fact, if you look at the last few hardware releases, they have had the same failures over and over again, all while saying they learned from their mistakes and this time the will not have the same insane droughts.
OrbitalBeard
Member
It's possible they'll fail again but if you combine the software output from Wii, DS, and 3DS, 2011 wasn't bad, for example. Each had major software issues on its own though. NX is apparently combining everything into one platform, so this shouldn't be an issue going forward. Hopefully.
POWERSPHERE
Banned
Mihael Mello Keehl
Banned
NX is a hybrid. The whole thing coming out in 16". Deal with that.
dickgumshoe
Member
Pachter wants to predict the future by looking at the past. When it comes to Nintendo, looking at his own past should have told him that dosn't seem to work.
you can predict a lot of what the nx will be and what is happening by what iwata said. it's been nearly two full years since iwata first discussed details of the nx, even though it didn't have a codename at the time.
orthodoxy1095
Banned
It has to come out in 2016...doesn't it? I can't imagine it waiting around another year.
Don't forget that making handheld games are a very different scope and investment compared the console games.
Making a hybrid, would require teams that have been used to making handheld to start making games that are very different than what they are used to.
I'm pretty sure NX is releasing in 2016 because not doing so would be disastrous for Nintendo. Another full year of basic abandonment for the WiiU without a new system to shore up next year's holiday season? No way. The new Legend of Zelda will help, but not THAT much.
Also, trying to sustain interest on a new Nintendo console 18 months out when the current one is dead in the water would shoot NX in the foot. Better to announce it at E3 2016 and try to maintain the hype until a fall release 4-6 months later.
Full disclosure, though: I've had a WiiU since launch and am actually rather annoyed that they are likely to switch consoles so soon. But considering how little support they are giving WiiU these days anyways, them pushing it back another year doesn't really help me anyhow.
Also, trying to sustain interest on a new Nintendo console 18 months out when the current one is dead in the water would shoot NX in the foot. Better to announce it at E3 2016 and try to maintain the hype until a fall release 4-6 months later.
Full disclosure, though: I've had a WiiU since launch and am actually rather annoyed that they are likely to switch consoles so soon. But considering how little support they are giving WiiU these days anyways, them pushing it back another year doesn't really help me anyhow.
I think it's a bit misguided to look at when the Wii U was first shown versus when it was released. Yes, it was first shown a year and a half beforehand, but it was first officially announced to be in development in Spring 2011, for a release in Winter 2012. The NX was first officially announced to be in development in Spring 2015, so a Winter 2016 release would fit that same pattern.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Well, sure. If NX is a shared platform, I think we'll get a lot more small and mid-tier games than AAA titles. I'm fine with that, personally and it's pretty much how Nintendo operates right now anyway.
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
I wouldn't count that though. Hell, I don't even think the NX was intended to be announced then, it was given such minimal attention that it makes me think Iwata and co. put it in at the last minute so the press and Nintendo fans don't have a kneejerk "Nintendo stops making hardware" reaction.
You know, plans sometimes change. Those things could have been true at the time they said it.
Incitemaybe
Member
Not far fetched at all. What is far fetched is that it MUST release in 2016.
Jon Carter
Member
I'd be very surprised if it didn't come out in 2016. Looking at the past is always helpful but that's not all the info that we have. I fully expect a fall 2016 launch.
'Planning' is the key word. They cannot release a half-baked product, first impressions and all that. They need to release it when it is ready, not before.