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[AzaK]

He had a point regarding how different the NX is. If it's some crazy arse modular system that requires managing splitting up work amongst units in some crazy way, it will add to the upskill time.

That said, I still think it'll be 2016 because the Wii U isn't turning around and they want to get back to "Nintendo like profits"

 

[Jon Carter]

By the way, I don't know if it was mentioned already, but Reggie did this interview post-N3DS XL launch:

“For us to do a brand new hardware platform we have to be communicating to developers two years in advance,” he said.

The systems were ready in the fall of 2014 and were clearly only pushed back in the West to right after the holidays to sell the remaining "old" 3DS stock.

That plus the manufacturing/devkit/shipment rumors, the Zelda delay, the heavy asset reuse on display in their current 3DS and Wii U games, and the fact that EAD and Retro should have games ready for next year, I think they're definitely shooting for a fall 2016 release.

 

[Exterminieren]

As far as I can see, his arguments here have two strands, both of which I think are very flimsy.

1) Nintendo always reveal their consoles at least a year and a half in advance. Even ignoring the fact that this isn't always true (it certainly isn't for the handhelds- 3DS and DS were both first announced less than a year before they first went on sale), I feel like assuming that Nintendo's strategy is to replicate the disastrous Wii U reveal campaign is a little daft. Nintendo's publicity strategy has vastly changed since 2011, too- the Nintendo Direct initiative emphasises immediacy of content and regularity of updates (the panicky January 2013 Direct notwithstanding). The Nintendo that would reveal a console and then wait another year to fully reveal it with software is long, long dead.

2) Nintendo need to wait until 2017 to allow third parties to get on board. Third parties have had dev kits for months now, and that just as far as we know- it's easily believable to think that some of Nintendo's friendliest third parties have had them for significantly longer- remember that Dragon Quest XI was announced for NX before Square Enix tried to row it back, which isn't something that any company would even consider doing unless they'd had some intimate knowledge of the hardware. In any case, over a year is time enough for third parties to prepare some speculative ports of their software for the NX, particularly if Nintendo are moving away from the old GameCube-era architecture and into something with more modern standards.

 

[Roshin]

2016 launch confirmed!

These predictable shit-posts are getting tiresome, imo.

 

[Qwark]

I mean, it's not that far out there. Production is set to being in 2016, we have no idea how long that's going to take. Hell we don't know anything about the NX yet, it hasn't even been officially announced. Who knows if they've even started handing out dev kits yet. There are a lot of things up in the air.

I want it to come out in 2016, but I'm not going to dismiss this because "Lol, Pachter.".

 

[Sadist]

I mean, it's not that far out there. Production is set to being in 2016, we have no idea how long that's going to take. Hell we don't know anything about the NX yet, it hasn't even been officially announced. Who knows if they've even started handing out dev kits yet. There are a lot of things up in the air.

I want it to come out in 2016, but I'm not going to dismiss this because "Lol, Pachter.".

Devkits have been out before E3 2015 started. Well for selected partners that is.Others received kits after E3.

Edit: yes, third parties.

 

[Qwark]

Devkits have been out before E3 started. Well for selected partners that is.

Does that include third parties? Because that's what I meant. I should've clarified, sorry.

 

[shmoglish]

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Does that include third parties? Because that's what I meant. I should've clarified, sorry.

Yes. Internal developers have likely had them for far longer.

 

[samar11]

I predict NX will be as successful as the Wii U

 

[SentryDown]

Well, we're not even sure NX is expected to run COD & GTA, there is still a good chance to see an hybrid console.

 

[Xellos]

Hope he's wrong on this one because Wii U's pretty much done. I don't want another situation where Nintendo releases almost nothing for a year, like what happened to GC in 2005-2006 and Wii in 2011-2012.

 

[Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew]

2016 it is then...

 

[spekkeh]

I used to think it would be 2017 based on the same metric (that Nintendo reveals the console one year before release) as well. But the last few months I warmed up to the 2016 hypothesis (also because of them sticking to 2016 with zelda). Nintendo even more so than the other console manufacturers make most of their profit in the few holiday months at the end of the year. Revealing a new console generally sees their sales peter off from that point onwards, so dragging the reveal across the holidays doesn't make a lot of sense anymore.

However it seems like in part these 18 months were also needed because Nintendo kept their cards close to their chest until the reveal, at which point most of the publishers only just started commissioning games for the new console, and we all know how that ended. We know NX is going to have a special hook because Nintendo will never not chase the Wii demographic, so if it does release in 2016, I think we can fully expect hardware that is similar in architecture but weaker than PS4 (maybe Xbone level without the MS support), because third parties would need to be able to port quickly. In this case maybe Pachter is the optimistic one, that it's something brand new, thus once again requiring 18 months at least to work towards.

As I'm writing it down I find myself starting to move back towards Pachter's position. It doesn't make sense for Nintendo to have the same architecture with a single hook, because that would mean it could easily be copied by the other manufacturers. So here's hoping the dev kits have been with the publishers for much longer than we know.

 

[AniHawk]

That plus the manufacturing/devkit/shipment rumors, the Zelda delay, the heavy asset reuse on display in their current 3DS and Wii U games, and the fact that EAD and Retro should have games ready for next year, I think they're definitely shooting for a fall 2016 release.

pretty much. i mean it's only like every sign is pointing to a release late next year.

 

[TheMagician]

This is a different scenario. They're desperate to get a system out ASAP.

 

[Wolfie5]

Did anyone actually read the OP, instead of just responding to the headline?

Pachter continued, “The more the NX looks like a PS4 or Xbox One, the more likely it is that it’s coming out in 2016.

He is not writing off 2016 entirely either.

Even though I believe more and more that NX(Whatever it is) will be(should be) released in 2016, I wouldn't be suprised if it released in 2017.
After all, this is Nintendo we are talking about and they did imo, release Wii U a year late(considering how Wii sales were back then).

At this point I am thinking NX will come whenever Zelda releases. That will be the big title, along with a game specifically designed for NX, probably a party game and some other minor titles plus some 3rd party games.
Pikmin 4 will be released a few months later. Mario 3D game will come a year after launch with hopefully a New Metroid game.

 

[AniHawk]

Even though I believe more and more that NX(Whatever it is) will be(should be) released in 2016, I wouldn't be suprised if it released in 2017.
After all, this is Nintendo we are talking about and they did imo, release Wii U a year late(considering how Wii sales were back then).

At this point I am thinking NX will come whenever Zelda releases. That will be the big title, along with a game specifically designed for NX, probably a party game and some other minor titles plus some 3rd party games.
Pikmin 4 will be released a few months later. Mario 3D game will come a year after launch with hopefully a New Metroid game.

i think the original release was 3ds in late 2010, the wii u in late 2010, and stuff like zelda skyward sword and donkey kong in late 2010 on the wii. or maybe skyward sword in march 2011.

the wii u basically fucked the end of wii, the launch of 3ds, and the wii u itself. there really is no greater failure in nintendo's 40 years in the video game industry.

 

[primasaurus]

People are missing one little fact, Nintendo are making a profit off the Wii U right now (including software and amiibos)

They will keep going for a while yet before they feel the need to move to the NX, financially they don't feel the pressure

 

[AniHawk]

People are missing one little fact, Nintendo are making a profit off the Wii U right now (including software and amiibos)

They will keep going for a while yet before they feel the need to move to the NX, financially they don't feel the pressure

the wii u is an enormous failure. they need to replace it as soon as possible. it's also not a great idea to let a system just languish until you can replace it. 2016 is going to seem pretty late for the long-in-the-tooth 3ds and dead wii u as it is.

 

[Boomshaw]

People are missing one little fact, Nintendo are making a profit off the Wii U right now (including software and amiibos)

They will keep going for a while yet before they feel the need to move to the NX, financially they don't feel the pressure

Yes but they are rapidly losing market share, meaning the longer they leave the launch of the new console, the more difficult it will become to get a foot back in the market.

If they are going to go for the hardcore gamer again, with a powerful console that can compete with PS4&X1, the system needs to come out asap.

 

[primasaurus]

the wii u is an enormous failure.

It not from a purely profit point of view, and if Wii U owners are to believed not from a gamer's view either

Raw sales is what I think your talking about, if Nintendo keep making a profit this gen they will keep going, they have always been like that

 

[OrbitalBeard]

It not from a purely profit point of view, and if Wii U owners are to believed not from a gamer's view either

Raw sales is what I think your talking about, if Nintendo keep making a profit this gen they will keep going, they have always been like that

It has been a failure though, profit-wise. Nintendo hasn't produced Wii U units in years and faced pretty substantial losses in 2012 and 2013, in large part because of the console (also in 2011, but a lot of that had to do with 3DS). Yes, they're doing alright now, but they aren't doing nearly as well as they were five years ago and that's a problem. A fresh start can potentially allow them to grow again as a company.

 

[Milly Osworth]

His opinion on things like these is not more educated than the average GAF member.

But with all these yes/no predictions you're bound to be right sometimes eh.

 

[FreedomFighter]

I think Pachter is right this time. 2017 seems more plausible.

 

[primasaurus]

Yes but they are rapidly losing market share, meaning the longer they leave the launch of the new console, the more difficult it will become to get a foot back in the market.

If they are going to go for the hardcore gamer again, with a powerful console that can compete with PS4&X1, the system needs to come out asap.

I think by not abandoning the system too early may actually be welcome by the current owners

Leaving it one more year will also allow the hardware to be higher spec'ed, and software to be better fleshed out

 

[primasaurus]

It has been a failure though, profit-wise. Nintendo hasn't produced Wii U units in years and faced pretty substantial losses in 2012 and 2013, in large part because of the console.

It's back in profit, It's software and amiibos alone are making it profits again, to just throw that away doesn't sound like Nintendo

 

[Exterminieren]

People are missing one little fact, Nintendo are making a profit off the Wii U right now (including software and amiibos)

They will keep going for a while yet before they feel the need to move to the NX, financially they don't feel the pressure

Even if we accept that Wii U is profitable now (which is unlikely over the life of the console- they've just been burning through stock), keeping it on the market for too long could severely damage the success of their future hardware businesses.

The money that the Wii U is currently making is not enough.

It's back in profit, It's software and amiibos alone are making it profits again, to just throw that away doesn't sound like Nintendo

The Wii U is not the reason why amiibo are a profitable business, and there are plenty of reasons to believe that a healthy console business would help sales.

Ditto for software- a larger userbase means more customers willing to buy software, which leads to higher sales and larger profits.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I dont see Nintendo missing out on a Holiday launch next year if they have Zelda as a launch title. Just doesnt make sense. Also they are expected to unveil the system early next year and we live in an era were companies cant afford to let to much time pass between unveiling and release. It will be old news and likely copied in some way or the other if unveiled next year but wont be out until 2017.

 

[ramparter]

At first I believed the same but all these rumors regarding shipments, mass production etc point to 2016. Then again these rumors could be bs.

 

[krang]

It's back in profit, It's software and amiibos alone are making it profits again, to just throw that away doesn't sound like Nintendo

The Wii U wasn't necessary for the creation and sale of amiibos, though.

 

[giancarlo123x]

His job is the best in the world.

 

[primasaurus]

The Wii U wasn't necessary for the creation and sale of amiibos, though.

The Wii U is needed to run the software that uses and promotes most of the amiibos

 

[OrbitalBeard]

It's back in profit, It's software and amiibos alone are making it profits again, to just throw that away doesn't sound like Nintendo

They aren't throwing anything away. For one, Amiibo will continue for many years. Their success really have little to do with Wii U.

Also, NES was still enormously profitable for Nintendo when they launched SNES. DS was still doing quite well when 3DS released. A company shouldn't sit on a new product until the old one is completely dead. And I'd argue that Wii U is pretty close to its death anyway.

 

[Marvel]

In this case he's right.

 

[the_batman]

The joke wouldn't live on if he wasn't so wrong all the time.

what are some big things he's been incorrect about?

 

[Exterminieren]

The Wii U is needed to run the software that uses and promotes most of the amiibos

Kimishima was saying just a few days ago that amiibo were successful independently of their limited usage in games, and that Nintendo were looking at ways to tie the two in closer together.

This is all moot, because the chances of amiibo not being part of the NX plans are nil.

 

[primasaurus]

They aren't throwing anything away. For one, Amiibo will continue for many years. Their success really have little to do with Wii U.

Also, NES was still enormously profitable for Nintendo when they launched SNES. DS was still doing quite well when 3DS released. A company shouldn't sit on a new product until the old one is completely dead. And I'd argue that Wii U is pretty close to its death anyway.

Ok we are believing two different things about Nintendos financial situation in this current gen, Nintendo are the only ones that really understand what they are going through or not, so I guess we will see

 

[Toadthemushroom]

Pachter's right about past product launches (bar 3DS and DS), however he misses Iwata promising a return to Nintendo-like profits in FY2016. That would include the period from January to March l 2017, but there's no chance Nintendo will spend next year staying the course with Wii U, 3DS and Amiibo and generate those kind of profits in the first three months of 2017.

There is mobile with DeNA, but the whole point of that is to drive customers to Nintendo's dedicated hardware business. It's becoming increasingly clear this will all tie in with NX, as there's no point in using mobile, QOL and MyNintendo to drive people to Wii U, or 3DS at this point. Which is likely why those initiatives were delayed until next year.

 

[ViciousDS]

pachter is one of the worst.....so I'm happy now that he said it won't. Because it totally means we are getting it in 2016!!!!

Spoiler

hes actually decent with hardware launches lol

 

[the_batman]

His job is the best in the world.

this video games analysis stuff isn't his job, it's just a hobby.

 

[Exterminieren]

Ok we are believing two different things about Nintendos financial situation in this current gen, Nintendo are the only ones that really understand what they are going through or not, so I guess we will see

It's pretty clear what's been going on through reading their financial reports.

Nintendo hasn't produced any notable amounts of Wii U consoles for a good long while, and those losses have been chalked up to previous financial years. Without those losses, they have been able to chalk up profit by producing content and merchandise for their dedicated audience.

If the NX plan comes to fruition, they'll be able to have all of this and more, possibly even with profitable hardware. There's no way that they will keep the NX back because the Wii U is "profitable enough"- there's no such thing. If NX isn't out next year, it's simply because it isn't ready.

 

[primasaurus]

Kimishima was saying just a few days ago that amiibo were successful independently of their limited usage in games, and that Nintendo were looking at ways to tie the two in closer together.

This is all moot, because the chances of amiibo not being part of the NX plans are nil.

It's a money earner that's for sure, Nintendo are doing ok atm

 

[Green Yoshi]

makes sense that the easier to port from PS4/XB1/PC to NX it is, the sooner it could release.

This. Many people just want one console and if multiplatform games as Mass Effect Andromeda won't be released on NX it won't be a success. The Wii casual audience has moved to smartphones and tablets.

 

[primasaurus]

Without those losses, they have been able to chalk up profit by producing content and merchandise for their dedicated audience.

The Wii U sells a ton of exclusive Nintendo Software as well, that's hard to let go, it's a profitable system when all is accounted for

 

[Green Yoshi]

what are some big things he's been incorrect about?

The Walking Dead Telltale Adventure will never ever win the VGA GOTY award. Two hours later he was proved wrong. ;-)

 

[Cipherr]

It's possible he is right. I however think it will be very late 2016 if it makes it at all next year. Like, Black Friday or later. Plenty of people thought the 3DS would have a successor by now too. Nintendo does their own thing, they don't care what's expected, lol.

 

[maxcriden]

Yes, but do they really want to come out with a lackluster launch line up? Best bet is that they port a bunch of WiiU titles (or have BC). I have no idea if it'll release in 2016 or not, but I can't believe Nintendo wants to rush a release and potentially fumble at the start. I think they'd prefer to have another quarter of lack luster WiiU sales if it means a stronger NX launch.

These things need time, has nothing to do with anyone saying anything. Earlier it releases the less time they have.

To your first point: I don't think there's any solid basis for saying that's the best bet. We don't know that ports woild be rushed, for one. But more to the point, EAD Tokyo and Retro have been radio silent for a bit, as have some of Nintendo's other teams, so it is possible Nintendo will be well prepared for a late 2016 launch with big titles. We also don't know if Pikmin 4 is a Wii U or NX game. In addition to all of this, the possibility of a shared library increases to me the potential of an expansive variety of quality titles available at launch and in the launch window. When Wii U debuted Nintendo developers admittedly struggled with the transition to HD; there's no reason to think that would happen again this time as theyve already successfully undergone that transition and additionally have further synchronized and unified their development houses.

To your second point, I would say I agree these things take time bit there's no reason to think they haven't been taking the time to prepare well for a 2016 launch for a couple years now.

 

[Exterminieren]

The Wii U sells a ton of exclusive Nintendo Software as well, that's hard to let go, it's a profitable system when all is accounted for

I think the idea is that the NX would end up selling a tonne more exclusive software, in fairness.

Where do you think the 3DS fits in all of this, just out of interest?

 

[Hisoka]

2016 launch confirmed!

Awwww yyyyyyeeaaaahhhhhh