• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Pachter predicts NX won't release in 2016

Mithos

Member
If 2017 means PS4+++ go ahead. The closer to PS5 "release" we get the crazier it is if they do not up specs.
 
Unless the handheld component is amazing then i predict even less so.

Launching into the middle of a wildly successful console gen and making a splash hasn't really been pulled off before.

Wildly successful console gen? Have you seen the total hardware and software sales? PS4 is doing well, but it's doing well on its own.

Regardless, NX is going to have to appeal to a much larger audience beyond the typical Nintendo fans (we've seen Wii U and GC hardware numbers), and that will be their challenge. Even kids all have tablets these days, so they can't even focus on that market. Sony did the right thing focusing on people who actually just want to play games, with no nonsense. I'm not sure there's room for much else without competing with smartphones and tablets, a war that Nintendo is never going to win.
 

KingBroly

Banned
If 2017 means PS4+++ go ahead. The closer to PS5 "release" we get the crazier it is if they do not up specs.

Assuming NX is like iOS where you get faster iterations on a singular hardware line, Nintendo could theoretically release NX2 right before a PS5/XB2 with similar specs as a counter strike.
 
It would be bad if they release the console without the 3rd party titles, so 2017 is not a bad idea IMO.

Serious question- do you honestly think that the year of release is the only thing keeping third party titles off the NX?

They could release NX tomorrow or they could release it in 20 years time, and unless serious moves that we aren't privy to have been going on behind the scenes it won't make a damned bit of difference to the big Western third parties.
 
Nobody. He was famous for 15 minutes for slamming Nintendo and Iwata back in the day saying the DS would get slaughtered by the PSP and the Wii would fail and then in 2009 he said the Wii should get an HD version out if it wanted to survive.

He basically says sensationalist things you'd read in a gaf thread.

Officially he's an analyst who tells investors which stocks they should buy or sell but Nintendo isn't one of the companies he analyses (I think Activision is one he does).

He seems to have some personal vendetta against Nintendo or maybe he became aware of the meme and enjoyed the attention so he keeps adding fuel to the fire.

Tl;dr he's nobody but he seeks attention

Should be the second and last post in every pachter thread.
 

Vinc

Member
Bit of a lack of research here, there's much more evidence pointing to a 2016 launch than otherwise.
 
Not really.

I'd argue that there is. Between the promise of "Nintendo-like" profits next year, the timescales that Nintendo's big developers have been working on, the state of the hardware business over the last year, the timescales for the dev kits, the purported timescales of production we've heard about... I'd certainly argue that the intention was to launch next holiday, whether Nintendo actually manage it or not.
 
I'd argue that there is. Between the promise of "Nintendo-like" profits next year, the timescales that Nintendo's big developers have been working on, the state of the hardware business over the last year, the timescales for the dev kits, the purported timescales of production we've heard about... I'd certainly argue that the intention was to launch next holiday, whether Nintendo actually manage it or not.
Yeah, forgot about the development-kit thing. Seems like a rumor but the way people are reacting, a credible one.
 

MisterR

Member
It will release in 2016. Not even Nintendo is dumb enough to let the Wii U flounder around for two more years. They'll follow the PS4, Xbone blueprint and have an event in Jan/Feb and then a big blow out at E3. It will launch with some first party stuff, a bunch of indy ports and a scant few 3rd party ports. I'm thinking like Just Dance kind of stuff.
 
It was reported by the Wall Street Journal. It isn't a rumour.
I swear the thread had "rumor" inthe title but maybe that's a formality because Nintendo didn't announce it officially. Either way, I always took it as true. I think it could launch at the end of next year but I hope they really have all their ducks in the pond this time around. Most launches suck but this is probably their most imortant one ever.
 

MisterR

Member
They aren't throwing anything away. For one, Amiibo will continue for many years. Their success really have little to do with Wii U.

Also, NES was still enormously profitable for Nintendo when they launched SNES. DS was still doing quite well when 3DS released. A company shouldn't sit on a new product until the old one is completely dead. And I'd argue that Wii U is pretty close to its death anyway.

Exactly. This is actually one of the big mistakes they made with the Wii U. They let the Wii languish and lose all momentum and tried to capitalize on it's name, long after people had put their Wiis in a closet.
 
Well to be fair Nintendo only said they will talk about this NX thing in 2016, nothing about a release date or whatsoever. It would make a lot of sense to release next year though, because except for Star Fox and Zelda, there's not much big stuff announced for Wii U.
 

TheJoRu

Member
I sure hope NX releases in 2016, if only to wash away all the speculation threads and unrealistic expectations sooner rather than later. And I hope they'll start talking about it in March alongside the release of Nintendo Account/My Nintendo/Miitomo, and don't wait until E3. Discuss concept, hardware, OS and infrastructure in March; announce games at E3, release in November.
 
I sure hope NX releases in 2016, if only to wash away all the speculation threads and unrealistic expectations sooner rather than later. And I hope they'll start talking about it in March alongside the release of Nintendo Account/My Nintendo/Miitomo, and don't wait until E3. Discuss concept, hardware, OS and infrastructure in March; announce games at E3, release in November.

If it is coming out next financial year, we'll probably have heard some specifics about it by the end of March. A new console is going to have an impact on the financials, and investors have to be informed.

I could see Nintendo going the Sony route and having a big event to show it off in February or March.
 
Have the rumors changed? They were never substantiated to begin with, but I thought the general consensus was that it is still probably a hybrid.
It is probably not a hybrid.

More than likely the gamepad will be portable and you can get a SKU with or without the gamepad. That is my guess. It is all speculation on how they will do portability. Iwata said no hybrid though.
 
Have the rumors changed? They were never substantiated to begin with, but I thought the general consensus was that it is still probably a hybrid.

92196.gif


It probably isn't, though. It's most likely going to be two or more separate pieces of hardware with different specs and functionality, mostly sharing a common range of software.

Iwata shot down the classical idea of the hybrid with the handheld just being part of the console years ago.
 
Holiday 2017 would put the NX a year ahead of when Sony and Microsoft would be due for THEIR five-year refreshes. It'd be in the same position the Wii U was with nothing to show for it.

Also, if Nintendo shows off the NX next year, but doesn't release it, do you think people will be in a hurry to buy a console that will be replaced in a year? The Wii U would have its worst holiday ever.

Yeah, 2016 only makes too much sense.
 

Haines

Banned
Why isnt this guy banned from gaf news threads

He just said nintendo makes consoles 18 month launches after e3. I could have fucking told you that.
 
Iwata said it wasn't a hybrid, then the rumour spread that it was a hybrid anyway, then Iwata had to repeat a couple more times that it wasn't a hybrid.

People just really, really want it to be a hybrid.

Pachter continued, “The more the NX looks like a PS4 or Xbox One, the more likely it is that it’s coming out in 2016. The less it looks like a PS4 or Xbox One, the less likely. If it’s a different language, it requires developers to tweak a lot of things from Madden, FIFA, Call of Duty or Grand Theft Auto in order to get it ready for NX, 13 months is probably not enough time and it’s probably a 2017 launch.

As if Nintendo is actually going to plan a launch window around annual AAA Guns n' Sports.
 
Top Bottom