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[Welfare]

Well, it's from Nintendo... was it wrong?

Now that i think so, Nintendo said in June 3DS has surpassed 60 million worldwide, but in the end this was wrong. (Currently at 59.79m by end of June)

Now even that 39% is wrong...? Who made this Nintendo PR!?!??!?!

EDIT: Thanks Welfare

Oh yeah! And that was at the beginning of June too! http://www.ign.com/articles/2016/06/10/nintendo-3ds-sales-pass-60-million-units-worldwide

 

[CosmicQueso]

I can't find a link to the direct Nintendo PR statement. Anyone have it handy?

EDIT: Your range is fine now Ryng.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Oh yeah! And that was at the beginning of June too! http://www.ign.com/articles/2016/06/10/nintendo-3ds-sales-pass-60-million-units-worldwide

Well i think this pretty much confirm that PR was a fake. None of them were correct. Ok, now for others math:

June was >170% of May, and we know 125k in June is the minimum, so, i have a minimum of 74k and a maximum of 80k for May.

June: 125-137k
May: 74-80k

I can't find a link to the direct Nintendo PR statement. Anyone have it handy?

All i saw were some online article, but at this point is obvius they were wrong.

EDIT: Your range is fine now Ryng.

Ok, thanks for the informations. Very appreciated.

 

[slavesnyder]

Any single person on GAF could do the exact same thing. Instead, some people would rather fight console warz, talk about how terrible the industry is, be negative and tear others down etc.

Amen, sunshine.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Amen, sunshine.

Being completely jaded and broken should only happen when someone's an industry vet, not when someone is just an interested fan or hobbyist!

Zhuge will get there. Give him some years. At least he'll be getting paid for it.

 

[Mpl90]

It's good we finally got reliable ranges for 3DS, thanks Cosmic.

Also, a PR saying 60 millions when shipments didn't even reach that and a MOM increase which is actually double than what officially stated? You can clearly see Moffit gives no fuck about his about-to-end job anymore!

 

[Welfare]

Did we find out if 3DS was down from April in May? We can shorten Ryng's range for May to 76-80k if it was up MoM.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Did we find out if 3DS was down from April in May? We can shorten Ryng's range for May to 76-80k if it was up MoM.

Up low single digit %.

 

[Welfare]

Up low single digit %.

So 76-78k then? I'll just put down 77k

Thanks!

 

[slavesnyder]

Being completely jaded and broken should only happen when someone's an industry vet, not when someone is just an interested fan or hobbyist!

Zhuge will get there. Give him some years. At least he'll be getting paid for it.

But Cosmo, this cannot be... on gaming expos everyone you talk to is a winner.

 

[wachie]

[PS4] 163K
[XB1] 139K
[3DS] 109K
[WIU] 21K

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Being completely jaded and broken should only happen when someone's an industry vet, not when someone is just an interested fan or hobbyist!

Zhuge will get there. Give him some years. At least he'll be getting paid for it.

Well said Cosmic.

So 76-78k then? I'll just put down 77k

Thanks!

And now even the June range is lower: 76k * >1.7 = >129.2k

So now June range is 129-137k.

Probabily something like 130-135k

 

[donny2112]

Thanks Cosmic, Ryng, and Welfare for working out some better ranges for 3DS May/June numbers! (^_^)

 

[Ryng_tolu]

#20: PS4 COD blops3 - $349
#62: XB1S 2Tb - $399 (pre order for August)
#86: XB1 Name your Game bundle - $249
#96: PS4 std - $339

July Update (not sure if last):

#09 / XBO: The Division bundle
#17 / XBO: 500gb name your game
#22 / PS4: COD BO III bundle
#27 / New 3DS Black

Spoiler

#32 / XBOs: 2TB *

#43 / New 3DS Red
#61 / XBO: 500gb GoW bundle

Spoiler

#70 / XBO: 2TB Gow bundle *

#80 / XBO: 1TB 3 games holidays bundle
#91 / PS4
#93 / PSVita

* Pre orders

Also note that for the last week of July 3DS was sold out (only on Amazon btw)

 

[Welfare]

Prime deals sure did move a lot of XB1 units. The gap between the PS4 and XB1 for July will be interesting.

 

[3rdamention]

I am rooting for an Xbox win this month, for no other reason than the PR. I want to hear how they handle the PR in the MAU age (they only occasionally hit on that anymore) with an NPD win. Will console sales matter again?

 

[RexNovis]

The funniest part is that everything dude used (at least initially) was purely public info. He just had the energy and was proactive enough to go find it.

He then found people in the industry and talked to them, and somehow got a source for some of the NPD and more proprietary stuff.

Then he showed interest and went out and found information on the asia and mobile markets, and just started talking about it.

What Zhuge/Daniel did could literally be done by anyone. He was interested, did the legwork, stayed positive, turned it into a career opportunity.

Any single person on GAF could do the exact same thing. Instead, some people would rather fight console warz, talk about how terrible the industry is, be negative and tear others down etc.

Good for him. I'm proud of the guy. Except for his fetish for Musou.

While I agree that it could be done by anyone it would require a lot more work and effort for some than others. For example there are those like myself that have little to no training or education in statistical or data analysis. His background in data analysis in his current job certainly gave him level of expertise that he was able to utilize in his pursuit.

But, at the end of the day, I think it was his genuine passion and interest in the data that enabled him to do what he did. There are not many who have the same level of dedication and interest for sales as he does. While those of us here in Sales GAF are certainly closer than most even amongst us he is exceptional in that regard. He deserves a lot of credit for working hard and capitalizing on that. It's certainly not an easy thing to do.

 

[allan-bh]

Prime deals sure did move a lot of XB1 units. The gap between the PS4 and XB1 for July will be interesting.

Xbox One will win.

 

[Sangetsu-II]

$250 Xbox One will win.

Fixed

 

[Elandyll]

Xbox One will win.

Given the discounts in July, it's certainy a possibility.
I still think the best bet for MS is August between the new hardware and the pre orders though. If they didn't get August... It would actually look rather dire.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Given the discounts in July, it's certainy a possibility.

Btw, did the others store get the same promotion as Amazon?

I know Gamestop got something too but not at Amazon level no?

 

[Welfare]

Four Xbox One's in the Top 100 with one in the top 10 and another ahead of the PS4 is good, but how much that actually equates to units might not be enough for a win.

 

[slavesnyder]

snip

On point

 

[CosmicQueso]

But, at the end of the day, I think it was his genuine passion and interest in the data that enabled him to do what he did. There are not many who have the same level of dedication and interest for sales as he does. While those of us here in Sales GAF are certainly closer than most even amongst us he is exceptional in that regard. He deserves a lot of credit for working hard and capitalizing on that. It's certainly not an easy thing to do.

I think many people in sales GAF are more than smart, dedicated, knowledgeable and passionate enough to compete with almost anyone in the industry in terms of analytics. Sure, you need to know how to talk the talk, and training in how to really get into things and discover how everything ticks requires time and experience.

But hell, the harwdare forecasting being done in this very thread is some of the best in the business. The leaders on that prediction board alone could do very well.

You're right, it's certainly not easy going from fan to professional. But a bunch of people here could do it, no doubt in my mind.

 

[slavesnyder]

For our math cracks:
With XboxOneS being 40% smaller and using the same shelf space, by how much more can they overship compared to the old model?

 

[Welfare]

For our math cracks:
With XboxOneS being 40% smaller and using the same shelf space, by how much more can they overship compared to the old model?

Do we know if the box it's in is actually smaller than the original?

 

[DC1]

16 Pages before abandonment.

..oh! Console sales predictions. I'll get back once I figure that out.

 

[anothertech]

[PS4] 250K
[XB1] 150K
[3DS] 96K
[WIU] 20k

 

[mejin]

[PS4] 185k
[XB1] 165k
[3DS] 100k
[WIU] 25k

 

[slavesnyder]

Do we know if the box it's in is actually smaller than the original?

We don't. But it would be completely senseless not to have a smaller box.

 

[Vena]

Also note that for the last week of July 3DS was sold out (only on Amazon btw)

The N3DS is about to overtake the S on Amazon again, lol. Its been out of stock for more than a week, iirc.

 

[Mpl90]

The N3DS is about to overtake the S on Amazon again, lol. Its been out of stock for more than a week, iirc.

It should also be noticed that the current New 3DS XL's price is still 174.99, 25$ lower than its MSRP ($199.99), which could be a factor influencing positively sales on Amazon.com (even if, given the size of the discount, it should be a factor with a small impact).

 

[Vena]

[PS4] 160K
[3DS] 165K
[XB1] 170K
[WIU] 20K

lol

It should also be noticed that the current New 3DS XL's price is still 174.99, 25$ lower than its MSRP ($199.99), which could be a factor influencing positively sales on Amazon.com (even if, given the size of the discount, it should be a factor with a small impact).

I know, Ryng and I just have been watching it and such, so I brought it up for him.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

I seriusly don't rememb a NPD where i was much indecise about the winner... maybe October 2015 with PS4 pricedrop and Halo 5, but this time there is another system which can win lol.

I honestly won't be surprised whatever will win.

Spoiler

Unles Wii U wins

 

[ethomaz]

We don't. But it would be completely senseless not to have a smaller box.

Plus you won't have a power brick using half of the box

 

[Vena]

I seriusly don't rememb a NPD where i was much indecise about the winner... maybe October 2015 with PS4 pricedrop and Halo 5, but this time there is another system which can win lol.

I honestly won't be surprised whatever will win.

Spoiler

Unles Wii U wins

3DS, the bones are shakin'!

 

[slavesnyder]

3DS, the bones are shakin'!

A game that's not nintendo's on a platform that's not nintendo's pushing the 3ds.

 

[allan-bh]

I wonder if NPD silenced creamsugar or he's just not giving data because of Aquamarine doing the job.

I miss the guy of the pies. Aquamarine is great, I only have fear because she is sanctioned by NPD, so if they change their mind she can't share anything.

 

[archnemesis]

[3DS] 115k
[PS4] 175k
[WIU] 22k
[XB1] 155k

 

[Nouzka]

[3DS] 100k
[PS4] 170k
[WIU] 25k
[XB1] 155k

 

[Tubie]

[PS4] 180K
[XB1] 160K
[3DS] 125K
[WIU] 25K

 

[slavesnyder]

I wonder if NPD silenced creamsugar or he's just not giving data because of Aquamarine doing the job.

I miss the guy of the pies. Aquamarine is great, I only have fear because she is sanctioned by NPD, so if they change their mind she can't share anything.

Creamsugar's pie charts and random numbers never had something to do with NPD anyway.

 

[Primethius]

[PS4] 170K
[XB1] 205K
[3DS] 125K
[WIU] 35K

 

[Bruno MB]

[3DS] 155,000
[PS4] 170,000
[WIU] 30,000
[XB1] 175,000

 

[KillerMan91]

[3DS] 145,000
[PS4] 180,000
[WIU] 31,000
[XB1] 175,000

 

[Fdkn]

[PS4] 177K
[XB1] 155K
[3DS] 133K
[WIU] 22K

 

[RexNovis]

[PS4] 155K
[XB1] 168K
[3DS] 117K
[WIU] 24k

I actually think the crazy deals that were available all month might give XB1 the lead despite the usual drop in purchases we see directly preceding the release of new SKUs. This is especially true since the PS4 had no major releases or deals for the month and it is usually a bigger MoM drop % .I expect to still see a drop MoM but that the deals will push enough units to ensure that drop is in the single digits even with the new slim SKU coing out in the month following. My thinking is that the delayed purchases for the slim will be markedly less impactful due to the high price of the initial slim SKU and the very very good deals that were on offer throughout the month. I expect the PS4's MoM drop to be significantly smaller than last year thanks to last year having the release of Arkham Knight and its bundle. I expect the PS4 MoM drop will fall somewhere between last year and the year prior. That said, considering YoY comparisons so far this year I think this month could go either way. It will be close no matter what. Im flopping back and forth as to which platform I think will win for the month and as a result will likely be changing my predictions multiple times before the deadline.

As far as 3DS goes, I think it will also see a sizable bump due to interest from Pokemon GO but I dont see this exceeding a 20% or so MoM increase. I expect it will fall just short of a 20% increase MoM which is still incredibly impressive considering both the YoY trend for the handheld and the usual trends for July MoM.

 

[Welfare]

Interesting to see some predictions with XB1 above PS4. I have no idea where I want to put the XB1 at this month. It seems like it can be either or.

 

[RexNovis]

Interesting to see some predictions with XB1 above PS4. I have no idea where I want to put the XB1 at this month. It seems like it can be either or.

Its gonna be super close either way I think. I'm having a hard time picking one or the other for the month. Its basically deciding whether to weigh current YoY performance or more recent MoM trends more heavily. Its definitely the trickiest prediction month we've had for a while IMO. I'll probably flop back and forth a few times before the deadline to be honest.

Next month will be similar with the release of the Slim basically weighing how much the high initial pricing for the first SKU will impact the sales for the month. Albeit thats more tricky in regards to numerical sales predictions not order. Order is pretty much set for Aug.

 

[Prototype Viktor]

[PS4] 184K
[3DS] 152K
[XB1] 130K
[WIU] 20K